Global box office and global total cinema revenue will surpass pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels in 2026, but admissions won’t do so over the next five years. Global subscriptions to streaming services will post a 5.6 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2023 and 2028, outpacing a compound annual gain in streaming revenue of just 4 percent. And advertising revenue will top the $1 trillion milestone in 2026 and be the fastest-growing of the three core revenue categories over the next five years.
Those are just some of the predictions contained in consulting and accounting firm PwC’s annual “Global Entertainment & Media Outlook,” published late on July 15.
The annual forecast, which covers 13 sectors across 53 countries and territories, notes that total revenue increased 5 percent in 2023 to $2.8 trillion, outpacing overall economic growth “despite economic headwinds, technological disruption, and increased geographic and industry competition.”
The CAGR for the next five years is projected to slow to 3.9 percent though, adding $597 billion to the global revenue pie to boost it to $3.4 trillion. Highlighting “widespread uncertainty,” PwC emphasized that the name of the game in the industry to capture some of that revenue is business model reinvention, which has “evolved from a strategic option into an existential imperative,” the firm said.
When it comes to cinema revenue, the trends have been mixed. “Aided by a number of blockbuster releases in 2023, cinema saw a 30.4 percent year-on-year increase in spending at the box office,” PwC highlights.
But box office/theatrical revenue will top pre-pandemic levels in 2026, rather than 2025 as projected a year ago, according to the firm’s updated forecast. “This is primarily driven by a larger budget slate expected to drive more box office sales and more ad spend,” explains Bart Spiegel, global entertainment and media deals leader at PwC, to The Hollywood Reporter.
The firm sees the 2019 box office revenue of $38.55 billion nearly reached in 2025 with $37.68 billion before hitting $40.23 billion in 2026.
Global cinema revenue, helped by ticket price hikes and advertising growth, will continue to grow, but also see a one-year delay. “In last year’s report, we anticipated that pre-pandemic levels would be reached by 2025. However, this year’s report predicts that the return will occur in 2026, indicating a more pessimistic outlook,” shares Spiegel. “Some of this can be attributed to a stronger budget slate throughout the year 2026. It is worth noting that there has been movement over the years, as some major studios made announcements towards the end of 2023.”
PwC estimates that after $42.11 billion in global cinema revenue, 2025 will reach $41.34 billion before a further jump to nearly $44.00 billion in 2026.
The picture for cinema admissions is different. “Admissions are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels throughout the forecast period. By 2028, the last year of our projections, admissions are projected to fall short by 1.5 billion compared to pre-pandemic levels,” explains Spiegel. That means around 6.45 billion admissions forecast for 2028, compared with 7.92 billion in 2019.
In North America, admissions are also not anticipated to reach pre-pandemic levels during the forecast period ending in 2028 when PwC forecasts 953 million admissions, which Spiegel calls “a significant decrease from 1.3 billion in 2019.” Factors contributing to this decline include “changes in consumer habits following the pandemic, the increasing popularity of streaming platforms, the impact of rising inflation, and audience fatigue with superhero movies,” he says.
In streaming, PwC diagnoses slowing revenue momentum amid a maturing business. “This lack in revenue growth is likely because consumers are becoming overwhelmed by the number of streaming service choices,” it explains. “Companies are responding by offering lower subscription fees in exchange for showing ads.”
Streaming usage and consumer uptake are rising, “albeit at a lower rate than in recent years as service providers face increased competition and challenges in getting consumers to pay more for digital goods and services,” the firm’s report mentions. “Global subscriptions to over-the-top (OTT) video services will rise to 2.1 billion in 2028 from 1.6 billion in 2023 – representing a 5 percent CAGR. Global average revenue per [streaming] video subscription is barely expected to grow, rising from $65.21 in 2023 to $67.66 in 2028.”
That explains recent strategy shifts at streaming services. “This plateauing effect is pushing leading streamers to reshape their business models and find new revenues beyond subscriptions, including the introduction of ad-based variants (reduced subscription fees with ad-filled content), cracking down on password-sharing, introduction of live sports, and industry consolidation,” says PwC. “In developed markets, this consolidation is taking the form of bundling subscription service providers.”
Cord-cutting will continue to impact the industry over the coming years, according to the Global Outlook report. “We anticipate ongoing declines in the linear ecosystem as more users transition to digital offerings,” shares Spiegel. “While some major legacy media companies now offer digital options, they all still face challenges in reducing churn, managing the rising costs of content (especially sports rights), and delivering a compelling value proposition to their subscribers.”
All this also means that advertising is becoming a bigger part of the streaming revenue mix. The result: “In four years, advertising will make up almost 28 percent of all the money that streaming services make – a major increase from the 20 percent it made in 2023.”
Speaking of advertising: Global ad revenue is expected to grow at a 6.7 percent CAGR through 2028, ahead of the other two broad sector segments. Connectivity will post a CAGR of 2.9 percent, while consumer spending will only reach a 2.2 percent CAGR.
Total advertising revenue will hit $1 trillion in 2026, “while 2028 revenue will hit double the revenue of 2020,” the accounting firm predicts and highlights: “Advertising is projected to account for 55 percent of the total entertainment and media industry’s growth over the coming five years.” Internet advertising is the largest and “one of the fastest-growing components” of the ad pie. Notes the PwC report: “It grew 10.1 percent in 2023, adding $52.5 billion in new revenues, and is projected to rise at a 9.5 percent CAGR through 2028 when it will account for 77.1 percent of total ad spending.”
What is behind the growing importance of ad revenue? “Advertisers are now willing to invest more in reaching consumers through different platforms, including phones, games, and e-commerce sites,” Spiegel tells THR. “The growing significance of advertising in the entertainment and media industry can be attributed to factors such as the ability to monetize data, the closer relationship between product discovery and purchase, and the influence of global privacy regulations.”
Questioned about the impact of higher consumer prices on the media industry, the expert notes: “Consumer spending has been affected by inflation, prompting media companies to respond by offering more ad-friendly or ad-supported options at a lower price point.”
Meanwhile, gaming, including the e-sports business, has continued being what PwC describes as “one of the fastest-growing large sectors in the entertainment and media universe, with total revenue hitting $227.6 billion in 2023, up 4.6 percent.” Gaming revenue is on track to top $300 billion in 2027, almost double its level in 2019, the firm highlights.
All those Taylor Swift fans, old and new, streaming to stadiums have also been a key growth engine. Notes PwC: “Driven by large events, such as musician world tours, live music revenues rose 26 percent and accounted for more than half of the overall music market.”
Of course, AI also gets attention in the latest PwC report. Summarizes the company: “The global entertainment and media industry looks to generative AI to drive new revenue streams and transform
business models.”
After all: “Shifts in consumer preferences, and uncertainty around the continued impact of digital transformation and new and emerging technology, such as generative AI, are inspiring a wave of business model reinvention. If market players are to gain their share of the growing revenue pools we identify, they will have to reimagine how their company creates, delivers, and captures value, leveraging the growth of advertising while also harnessing the powerful opportunity presented by AI.”
There are, of course, also risks and discussions to be had. “Having exploded onto the scene in the past couple of years, generative AI brings major implications — including both opportunities and challenges,” PwC notes in its Global Outlook report. “The U.S. cut of PwC’s most recent CEO Survey shows that nearly half of U.S. CEOs see GenAI boosting profits this year, with 61 percent expecting it to improve the quality of their products and services.”
The labor talks of the past year made AI a focus topic though. “The need to control the use of AI tools and AI-generated content — and to avoid undercutting creators’ rights and payments — were key factors in the 2023 Hollywood writers’ strike, and in the subsequent deal struck with the Writers Guild of America,” notes the PwC report. “Going forward, the speed at which high-quality content can be produced will continue to increase as the related costs decline. The open question remains precisely how GenAI will translate into higher revenues and help companies accelerate their pursuit of revenue pools.”
One high-potential area is in the advertising space, according to the Global Outlook. “GenAI is increasingly being integrated into content creation and advertising tools,” it notes. “Here its application has tended to focus initially on extracting small pieces of information and generating summaries in subsectors, such as sports media,” it highlights before outlining more opportunity ahead: “If GenAI can be harnessed to offer new experiences and create new revenue streams, the growth potential is even greater.”
For more than a century, B&B Theatres has brought movies — from “Casablanca” and “Psycho” to “The Dark Knight” and “Barbie” — to audiences across the South and the Midwest. The family-owned and-operated cinema chain isn’t just a business — it’s a way of life for the Bagbys, who have provided escapism for their customers through wars, recessions and terrorist attacks.
Yet the coronavirus reoriented the Bagbys’ company in ways those other catastrophes did not. Now, on any given weekend, patrons at B&B Theatres aren’t just catching the newest release — they’re stopping by the multiplex to bowl, play pickleball and arcade games or grab a cocktail at the bar. These changes to the American institution of moviegoing are startling, but they’ve helped keep the lights on post-pandemic, when studios began producing fewer and fewer films and people fell out of the habit of going to theaters.
“The pandemic made us realize that we need to diversify,” says Bob Bagby, the company’s CEO. “We can’t just depend on studios to provide us with what we need to drive our business.”
So far, B&B Theatres, which serves audiences in states such as in Missouri, Mississippi, Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas and Florida, has opened four of these venues and plans to add another four this year. The goal is getting patrons to “linger longer,” Bagby says, so they’re spending money whether or not they take in a movie.
“It’s harder to run; it’s more like you’re overseeing a cruise ship than a movie theater,” says Brock Bagby, Bob’s son and the company’s president. “It’s also a bigger risk; they’re much more expensive to build. But we need to create a better mousetrap to get people to come.”
So far, B&B Theatres is attracting crowds. But many of its competitors aren’t so lucky. Five years after COVID, the movie theater industry is smaller in terms of attendance and box office returns. It’s also less relevant and more imperiled, forced to compete with an endless array of streaming services. There’s a sense that a few bad breaks could extinguish an art form that’s been built over generations.
“The recovery has been much slower than people hoped,” says Eric Handler, an exhibition industry analyst with Roth Capital Partners. “It’s been a struggle. You’ve had companies go out of business, and most of the major chains closed locations.”
With fewer people stopping by the box office, Regal Cinemas, Pacific Theatres, Alamo Drafthouse and others filed for Chapter 11. Some of these companies have reemerged after bankruptcy; others have dimmed their marquees forever. As a result, North America has 5,691 fewer screens compared with pre-COVID times, according to research by media consultancy Omdia.
Box office grosses haven’t rebounded either. Ticket sales in 2024 fell to $8.7 billion, a 23.5% drop from pre-pandemic levels. It’s a far cry from the nearly $11 billion the industry was generating before the global health crisis. Theater owners maintain their business is about to regain its footing, but this year is off to a lousy start, with franchise fare like “Captain America: Brave New World” falling short and ambitious bets like “Mickey 17” failing to pay off.
But there are signs the situation is about to improve. Over the summer and into the holiday season, new installments of popular properties such as “Jurassic World,” “Avatar,” “Superman” and “Mission: Impossible,” will land in multiplexes. In all, studios are unveiling roughly 110 movies this year, at least 15 more than they did in 2024. That alone is reason to celebrate for cinemas, which have been desperate for more movies to put on their screens.
“Recovery isn’t at hand, but it’s just around the corner. You can reach out and almost touch it,” predicts Adam Aron, CEO of AMC, the world’s largest cinema chain. “And as good as the back half of this year looks, 2026 seems even stronger.”
But movie theaters need more than a few splashy sequels and a consistent influx of studio releases to shift their fortunes. Studios and exhibitors estimate that between 15% and 20% of moviegoers stopped going to cinemas after the lockdown ended, and it’s not clear what, if anything, will entice them to return.
“We need to find a way to get people back into the habit of going to theaters,” John Fithian, co-founder of consulting firm The Fithian Group. “You can’t stay stuck in a 100-year-old way of doing business — that’s not going to work anymore.”
Many theater owners are trying to do things differently. They’re selling a wider array of snacks, sprucing up musty auditoriums and enhancing loyalty programs to reward loyal customers. Some exhibitors are even experimenting with variable pricing, charging more for blockbusters than for less popular genres like dramas and comedies. A few films, such as 2023’s octogenarian comedy “80 for Brady,” have offered discount tickets to appeal to cost-conscious patrons. However, several theaters have been hesitant to more broadly embrace these initiatives, citing their already thin profit margins.
I just there’s good movies. This forum seems obsessed with determining whether a movie is good or bad based on how much money it made.
This seems true. Box office numbers equate to awesomeness. Except, any real movie fan knows that’s not really how it works. But, whatever.
As for box office numbers in general, I’d think they ought to able to rebound somewhat now that we’re well past the "stupid" period we had to endure. Almost everything and/or industry has comeback at least decently. I hope theaters stay viable for those that like to go.
At this rate/level it's only getting worse with theater after theater closing or being announced to be closing.
The original article is 2024. The problem with AMC, Regal, and Cinemark is before covid they refused to acknowledge the lost ticket sales. They were chasing numbers from 2002. The closing theaters now are because of the rapid growth between 2016 and 2019. The lack of market has caught up them which is why they are now shifting to premium screens. Which they should have done back in 2015.
They couldn’t have foreseen the strikes, which had a huge impact on releases.
2026 will be a good year, the release schedule for blockbusters is insane.
Let’s just see, but I’m confident.
Just off the top of my head
Project Hail Mary
Avengers: Doomsday
Mandalorian and Grogu
Spielberg’s UFO film
Supergirl
The Odyssey
Spider-Man
Cruise/Iñárritu film
Dune: Messiah
Even the latter half of this year should be big. We’ll see if Thunderbolts can bring back the early May box office for a Marvel flick, and Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, err, finally arrives Memorial Day weekend. Superman and Fantastic Four should make for an interesting July, and Oct-Dec sees Tron: Ares, Wicked: For Good, and Avatar: Fire and Ash.
It’s just been a brutal first stretch of the year, with Captain America making way less than the last two and Pattinson only bringing out so much of the crowd for Bong Joon Ho’s first post-Oscar project. Also, is Disney going to cool it with the live action remakes for a while?
Project Hail Mary
Avengers: Doomsday
Mandalorian and Grogu
Spielberg’s UFO film
Supergirl
The Odyssey
Spider-Man
Cruise/Iñárritu film
Dune: Messiah
Even the latter half of this year should be big. We’ll see if Thunderbolts can bring back the early May box office for a Marvel flick, and Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, err, finally arrives Memorial Day weekend. Superman and Fantastic Four should make for an interesting July, and Oct-Dec sees Tron: Ares, Wicked: For Good, and Avatar: Fire and Ash.
It’s just been a brutal first stretch of the year, with Captain America making way less than the last two and Pattinson only bringing out so much of the crowd for Bong Joon Ho’s first post-Oscar project. Also, is Disney going to cool it with the live action remakes for a while?
Absolutely, we also have Moana, Minions 3, Masters Of The universe, Scary movie 6, Scream 7, 28 Years Later: Boneyard, The Bride, untitled Universal event movie, Exorcist reboot, Hunger Games, Narnia, untitled WB event, TMNT, and many more.
With the onrushing recession, I wouldn't count on it.
For most of the last 130 years movie theaters were a good source of cheap mass entertainment, so they could do well even in an economic downturn. But now--especially for a family--streaming can be way cheaper.
With the onrushing recession, I wouldn't count on it.
For most of the last 130 years movie theaters were a good source of cheap mass entertainment, so they could do well even in an economic downturn. But now--especially for a family--streaming can be way cheaper.
It is going to hurt more, because the chains have decided to spend more on upgrades and premium screens.
All countries
Argentina
Austria
Belgium
Brazil
Bulgaria
Chile
China
Colombia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Estonia
Denmark
Finland
Greece
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
India
Latvia
Lithuania
Malaysia
New Zealand
Norway
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Singapore
South Africa
South Korea
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
Global box-office *might* surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2026
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