Media flip-flop: from "HD DVD will trounce BD" to "dive in now into BD"

[Grubert]

November 10, 2007: HD DVD will prevail!

Q: Do you have a preference between HD DVD and Blu-ray? --

A: I enthusiastically recommend HD DVD because it's a better product and a better proposition for consumers. Signs are showing it is going to trounce Blu-ray, and soon. Surprised? Read on.

For those looking for a single sentence explaining why go with HD DVD: It's a better thought-out, more solid product than Blu-ray, it is half the price, and picture and sound quality are identical. At less than $200 including seven or more movies, HD DVD players are a stunning value. Why pay twice the money when Blu-ray has serious issues and the movies look and sound the same?

I smile when I see people buying HD DVD players based on bargain pricing, because they are unknowingly getting the Ferrari as well! Despite its purported superiority and much higher cost, Blu-ray is the emperor with no clothes. HD DVD has been superior since day one.

HD DVD has delivered as promised from the start, receiving critical acclaim for its spectacular picture and stunning sound. Hundreds of great movies are available, with more added every week. Check out amazon.com to see the wide, varied selection.

On the other hand, at launch Blu-ray's picture quality was horrible, generating barbs such as "needs to go to the scrap heap" and "who in their right mind would ever like this?" Though they have since closed the picture quality gap, almost all Blu-ray player models announced or existing are already obsolete. They conform to an early player profile that does not support upcoming disc features. Profiles should have been finalized before product launch! Blu-ray's record has been spotty at best, and if you say it sounds like they have been fixing it as they go along, I'd say you are right.

In the words of video industry legend Joe Kane, "Blu-ray is all about greed." Though a poor value, many retailers push Blu-ray because of the higher price and higher margin. It's easy to debunk Blu-ray's purported advantages:


• "More studios support Blu-ray, including Disney ... no 'Cars' or 'Pirates' on HD DVD." Well, HD DVD has plenty of exclusive support, too, and has never lost a studio. Conversely, Paramount and DreamWorks recently abandoned Blu-ray for HD DVD, calling it "the affordable, high quality choice." So, no 'Star Trek' or 'Shrek' for Blu-ray. The answer for either camp is to get the regular DVD if you can't get the HD version.

• "Blu-ray discs have higher capacity." Another nonissue as HD DVD has enough to do the job. Plus, expensive new equipment is needed to manufacture Blu-ray discs. Existing DVD factories need little modification to press HD DVDs, meaning lower costs from movie studio to consumer.

• "More Blu-ray players have been sold and more companies make them." Well, almost all of the "Blu-ray players" sold so far are Playstation 3 game consoles that happen to have a Blu-ray drive in them. Many, if not most of them, are used solely as game machines. HD DVD has the lead in stand-alone players. As for more manufacturers, what's the difference if there are one or 10 obsolete, expensive Blu-ray models on the market?

• "Blu-ray will win because it has sold more movies to date." Another nonissue because even combined, Blu-ray and HD DVD disc sales are an infinitesimal piece of the DVD pie, a few grains of sand in a sandbox. Blu-ray's tiny numerical lead will be obliterated soon anyway because kingmaker Wal-Mart has embraced HD DVD. In early November, Wal-Mart placed HD DVD ads on primetime TV and ran a promotion estimated to have sold well over 50,000 players in a single day. Other retailers showed increased HD DVD player sales in Wal-Mart's wake, with the events making national news.

[...]

With the premium offering at a lower price, DreamWorks and Paramount's abandonment of Blu-ray, and support from extremely powerful places, HD DVD, with its growing momentum, is showing signs of turning into a tidal wave this holiday season.

I know consumers are smart enough to see which way to go, and they're going to love their choice. Nice to get the best for half the price, isn't it?

Jan 12, 2008: Why Warner Why?

[...]
Warner gave Toshiba an opportunity to lure a Blu-ray studio to HD DVD, in which case they would go HD DVD exclusive and give HD DVD a clear studio advantage. This did not happen (though it almost did) and Warner had no choice but to go with Blu-ray.

Obviously I am saddened by the implications for my readers, the industry and consumers but still believe I recommended the better, more solid format, which was much more affordable, as well.

[...]

I was at [BDA's] booth at CES and regretted I could not find a single standalone player worthy of recommendation [...] and if HD DVD goes away the cost of entry to high def movies will be doubled. It’s kind of sad for the consumer, really.

My mind and my heart and both were in agreement that HD DVD was the way to go. To not recommend HD DVD would not be true to my own convictions, and it would be unfair of me to not recognize Toshiba’s accomplishment in bringing an affordable, fully developed product to market. Many in the industry agreed with me, and no one in the media expected Warner to pull the plug so quickly when HD DVD standalones were selling so well this holiday season. As for my future course, I will recommend the Playstation 3 to people who want Blu-ray until fully specified Blu-ray Profile 2.0 players are available and their performance matches the PS3.

May 21, 2008: If you can't be with the one you love...

Q. I have a 34-inch HDTV and own more than 600 DVDs. I didn't want to get into Blu-ray just yet as I do not want a PlayStation 3, but unfortunately I need a new DVD player right now. How much difference will I see between Blu-ray and upconverted DVD on my 34 inch set, and on a set 42 inches or bigger when I upgrade next year?

A. You won't see much difference on your 34 inch screen, but you will definitely hear the difference if you have a sound system. At 42 inches and up the difference in picture will blow you away. Recently there have been some positive developments on the Blu-ray front that may make you want to consider diving in now, even with the smaller TV.

For a long time the $399 PlayStation 3 (PS3) was the only Blu-ray player worth considering because comparably priced standalone players were slow, glitchy, unreliable, and not nearly as capable. We are finally seeing standalone players that can be justified when compared to the PS3.

I recently tested the Philips BDP 7200, a new Profile 1.1 (picture in picture, aka "Bonus View") player and found it to be well worth recommending.

[...]

My hat is off to Philips for such an impressive performance with their new player. I'll be reporting on some other promising new players in future columns.


The second development regards the movie studios. Most studios have announced that all new releases will be available on both Blu-ray and DVD when launched. If you go with Blu-ray now instead of waiting, you can get movies in the best possible presentation sooner rather than later. I for one would not accept a blockbuster like "Iron Man" any other way, and lots of great old movies like "Ben-Hur" and "Patton" will be coming to Blu-ray soon. The Blu-ray/DVD price difference for new releases is only about $5 at retail and if you go to amazon.com you will save significantly, so the additional cost of the movies isn't a factor if you shop smart.

If you thought the name sounded familiar - yes, that is the Don Lindich from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette who appeased the masses in mid-December after rampant rumors of Warner going Blu and posted a message from Warner that they had "made no decision to change our present policy which is to produce in both HD DVD and Blu-ray." And the same who accused Sony of paying off Fox and Warner for exclusivity.

Oh - the BDP-7200 he now recommends was presented at CES, where he didn't find a player he could recommend.