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Old 05-11-2007, 05:59 PM   #1
aaronwt aaronwt is offline
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Both formats will be around for a while neither format is going to die anytime soon and neither format will gain acceptance like DVD. On Demand and Video downloads will probably gain more market share in the end.
If On Demand offered the same quality and features as the next gen optical formats, I would only purchase 10% of what I have so far. i have 90 BD titles and 175 HD DVD titles currently.
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Old 05-13-2007, 12:10 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronwt View Post
On Demand and Video downloads will probably gain more market share in the end.
Just how long do you think it will take to download a movie using DSL?

If you wanted to d/l a movie that is 30GB (HD DVD size so already hamstrung) and you had a connection with a download speed of 3Mb/s. It would take over 22 hours. And that is assuming you could download at that speed (3Mb/s) for that long without hitting congestion and that the download site had enough bandwidth to serve all the people looking to download....

I do not want to wait that long and man would I feel sorry for anyone that is paying for bw by usage...

Downloading video sucks.
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Old 05-13-2007, 03:04 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by MatrixS2000 View Post
Just how long do you think it will take to download a movie using DSL?

If you wanted to d/l a movie that is 30GB (HD DVD size so already hamstrung) and you had a connection with a download speed of 3Mb/s. It would take over 22 hours. And that is assuming you could download at that speed (3Mb/s) for that long without hitting congestion and that the download site had enough bandwidth to serve all the people looking to download....

I do not want to wait that long and man would I feel sorry for anyone that is paying for bw by usage...

Downloading video sucks.
I had a faster connection than that 10 years ago. I had 5mbs down and 1mbs up 10 years ago.
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Old 05-13-2007, 01:40 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronwt View Post
I had a faster connection than that 10 years ago. I had 5mbs down and 1mbs up 10 years ago.

How, when, where, and what? Dare I even ask what it cost? A decade ago?!

Ok, so obviously you're some kind of strange and exceptional minority. What difference does it make if you had these kinds of resources available to you or not? Most people on the streets don't today, to say nothing about ten years ago.

Just because YOU can do something and spend tons of money to get it doesn't mean most other people can.


Anyways, we've had this argument around here a billion times.

Until they make it where the guy out in the boondocks can have steady and fast connections like the kind you're referring to, and it's a LOT cheaper than what it costs today? We're many years away from downloads taking over. I'll certainly stand against it for as long as I can, anyway that I can.

Frankly, I'm one of many people who prefer to have something concrete in their hands to show for their money anyways. <- Most people feel this way so that's two incredibly large obstacles right there.

I'm staying with optical formats and other concrete media for my money for as long as I possibly can and I suspect most others will as well.

Last edited by JTK; 05-13-2007 at 01:43 PM.
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Old 05-13-2007, 01:52 PM   #5
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I had a faster connection than that 10 years ago. I had 5mbs down and 1mbs up 10 years ago.
where did you work, NASA?
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Old 05-13-2007, 01:57 PM   #6
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I had a faster connection than that 10 years ago. I had 5mbs down and 1mbs up 10 years ago.
Hmm, where the hell do you live! I wanna move there!

In 1997 we had a dual ISDN line running to our house for 256k up/down. That was damn good then and cost about £80/m I can't imagine what 5/1 cost back then especially in the States where the infrastructure leaves a lot to be desired.

Now we have got 20Mbit down and 2Mbit up Virgin Media upgrade goodness.

And here at Uni, we use the SUPERJANET5 Universities backbone which gives 10Gbit between severs (most of my traffic) and 10Mbit connections to the outside world.
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Old 05-13-2007, 02:07 PM   #7
Greenmatiz2 Greenmatiz2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MatrixS2000 View Post
Just how long do you think it will take to download a movie using DSL?

If you wanted to d/l a movie that is 30GB (HD DVD size so already hamstrung) and you had a connection with a download speed of 3Mb/s. It would take over 22 hours. And that is assuming you could download at that speed (3Mb/s) for that long without hitting congestion and that the download site had enough bandwidth to serve all the people looking to download....

I do not want to wait that long and man would I feel sorry for anyone that is paying for bw by usage...

Downloading video sucks.
As I mentioned in another thread, when an HD movie is sent via pay service here in Korea, you're looking at 960x640 resolution at about 700 meg for a 30 minute TV show. So if you download a full movie, you're looking at 1/5th the size of a BR movie. XVID stuff is similar, but at 704x396. And it looks pretty darned great on my 42" LCD screen (not as good as BR, for sure, but much better than DVD!). The quality is nice, and the HD TV shows fill up my entire screen.

Current cost for legal download = about $1 per movie (last I checked), and I doubt Hollywood sees a dime (it's all in Korean, so I bet this is how they get around it). Movies come down in about 10 minutes, because the line is dedicated to pay only.

These are the resolutions people will be downloading HD content at, to start. They won't be (and probably won't ever be) downloading a 20+GB movie in the next 3 to 5 years.

Last edited by Greenmatiz2; 05-13-2007 at 02:11 PM.
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Old 05-13-2007, 02:24 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenmatiz2 View Post
As I mentioned in another thread, when an HD movie is sent via pay service here in Korea, you're looking at 960x640 resolution at about 700 meg for a 30 minute TV show. So if you download a full movie, you're looking at 1/5th the size of a BR movie. XVID stuff is similar, but at 704x396. And it looks pretty darned great on my 42" LCD screen (not as good as BR, for sure, but much better than DVD!). The quality is nice, and the HD TV shows fill up my entire screen.

Current cost for legal download = about $1 per movie (last I checked), and I doubt Hollywood sees a dime (it's all in Korean, so I bet this is how they get around it). Movies come down in about 10 minutes, because the line is dedicated to pay only.

These are the resolutions people will be downloading HD content at, to start. They won't be (and probably won't ever be) downloading a 20+GB movie in the next 3 to 5 years.
Very good point, didn't realize that had started to pick up in Korea. Interesting to hear, very obvious answer to the problem though, bandwidth can't fit the media. The media needs to fit the bandwidth.

Even if/when Fibre to the premise gets to the same saturation that DSL and Cablemodems are now, that means you'll have a sizable population that still won't have access to that grade. And of course, you're dependant on the infrastructure being able to handle it. Which I suspect is why NetFlix insists I have a 28k modem for determining what size movies it should stream to me if I 'rent' a digital download.
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Old 05-13-2007, 02:32 PM   #9
Greenmatiz2 Greenmatiz2 is offline
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I've bought two DL games from the Sony Store, and I still feel irky about it. I'd rather have a disk in my hands that I can sell if I want, or have if I need it.
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Old 05-13-2007, 02:33 PM   #10
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5mb down, 1mb, 10 years, that sounds like a leased partial T3.
Exactly. That reinforces my point from a page or so ago: Most people don't have access to that sort of thing and never will...certainly not at any remotely reasonable cost.
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Old 05-13-2007, 02:37 PM   #11
Greenmatiz2 Greenmatiz2 is offline
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Oh, and I forgot to mention that $10 is my limit to get a game that's not on some piece of hardware.
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Old 05-13-2007, 02:39 PM   #12
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It's been my observation, and maybe I'm wrong on this, but why is it that a lot of people I see that have either bought into both formats or HD-DVD exclusively tend to favor digital downloads? Is the Micrsoft Kool Aid really that strong? Do people REALLY want to bow down at that altar that badly?

I most certainly do not.

Last edited by JTK; 05-13-2007 at 03:26 PM.
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Old 05-13-2007, 03:04 PM   #13
dialog_gvf dialog_gvf is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTK View Post
It's been my observation, and maybe I'm wrong on this, but why is it that a lot of people I see that have either bought into both formats or HD-DVD exclusively tend to favor digital downloads? Is the Micrsoft Kool Aid really that strong? Do people REALLY want to bow down at that altar that badly?

I most certainly do not.
Actually, given the right rights, specs, and equipment, I'd support downloads too.

To me digital download should be just another distribution method. You should be able store it on a HDD farm, or burn a disc that is portable. The big show stopper would be DRM, where a "purchase" is locked to a playback device making it pretty much a long-term rental, not ownership.

I also demand as good or BETTER quality. I don't want to sacrifice bit-rate to those without patience who want to think of it as a form of HD VOD, not a distribution method.

I expect there aren't enough people interested for it to work right now. The consumer interest would be in some streaming VOD concept, not the highest quality content distributed digitally.

Gary
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Old 05-13-2007, 03:11 PM   #14
JTK JTK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post
Actually, given the right rights, specs, and equipment, I'd support downloads too.

To me digital download should be just another distribution method. You should be able store it on a HDD farm, or burn a disc that is portable. The big show stopper would be DRM, where a "purchase" is locked to a playback device making it pretty much a long-term rental, not ownership.

I also demand as good or BETTER quality. I don't want to sacrifice bit-rate to those without patience who want to think of it as a form of HD VOD, not a distribution method.

I expect there aren't enough people interested for it to work right now. The consumer interest would be in some streaming VOD concept, not the highest quality content distributed digitally.

Gary
^^ Put it like that, then I wouldn't be against it either as another choice amongst many options.

I still think we're many years away from that kind of setup, though.
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Old 05-13-2007, 04:26 PM   #15
Rob Tomlin Rob Tomlin is offline
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How, when, where, and what? Dare I even ask what it cost? A decade ago?!

Ok, so obviously you're some kind of strange and exceptional minority. What difference does it make if you had these kinds of resources available to you or not? Most people on the streets don't today, to say nothing about ten years ago.

Just because YOU can do something and spend tons of money to get it doesn't mean most other people can.


Anyways, we've had this argument around here a billion times.

Until they make it where the guy out in the boondocks can have steady and fast connections like the kind you're referring to, and it's a LOT cheaper than what it costs today? We're many years away from downloads taking over. I'll certainly stand against it for as long as I can, anyway that I can.

Frankly, I'm one of many people who prefer to have something concrete in their hands to show for their money anyways. <- Most people feel this way so that's two incredibly large obstacles right there.

I'm staying with optical formats and other concrete media for my money for as long as I possibly can and I suspect most others will as well.
Well said Mr. JTK, and I couldn't agree more.
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Old 05-13-2007, 04:30 PM   #16
JTK JTK is offline
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Well said Mr. JTK, and I couldn't agree more.
The exception again being the "perfect" scenario that dialog_gvf outlined a few posts above from here and that I think we're many years away from, if ever.
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Old 05-13-2007, 04:54 PM   #17
Rob Tomlin Rob Tomlin is offline
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The exception again being the "perfect" scenario that dialog_gvf outlined a few posts above from here and that I think we're many years away from, if ever.
Right, but I think that "perfect" scenario is quite unlikely myself.
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Old 05-13-2007, 06:03 PM   #18
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Not sure about most but - I don't like VOD. Its a nice "theoretical" kind of thing, but with DRM - it makes it useless.

I perfer to purchase a BD movie or DVD and have the ability to play it whenever, where ever I choose. I like and love HARD COPIES. I like the collection and not having to worry about DRM, my HD crashing and loosing all my movies and blah blah blah.

I will take hard copy over VOD any day.
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Old 05-13-2007, 06:14 PM   #19
Rob Tomlin Rob Tomlin is offline
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Not sure about most but - I don't like VOD. Its a nice "theoretical" kind of thing, but with DRM - it makes it useless.

I perfer to purchase a BD movie or DVD and have the ability to play it whenever, where ever I choose. I like and love HARD COPIES. I like the collection and not having to worry about DRM, my HD crashing and loosing all my movies and blah blah blah.

I will take hard copy over VOD any day.
Exactly.
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Old 05-13-2007, 06:56 PM   #20
JTK JTK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkMore View Post
Not sure about most but - I don't like VOD. Its a nice "theoretical" kind of thing, but with DRM - it makes it useless.

I perfer to purchase a BD movie or DVD and have the ability to play it whenever, where ever I choose. I like and love HARD COPIES. I like the collection and not having to worry about DRM, my HD crashing and loosing all my movies and blah blah blah.

I will take hard copy over VOD any day.
Me, too! It's not even a choice. Not even remotely close.
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