2025 Major League Baseball Thread

[A Sith Lord?]

We're looking at a HUGE log jam for the next half decade of HOF ballots.

Here are notable players that will be eligible for election on first-time ballots.

2015:
Pedro
Randy
Smoltz
Sheffield
Nomar

2016:
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Jim Edmonds
Ken Griffey

2017:
Varitek
Wakefield
Posada
Magg Pipes
Vlad
Manny
Pudge

2018:
Moyer
Vizquel
Rolen
Andruw
Damon
Jim Thome
Chipper
Matsui
Kerry Wood
Millwood

2019
Halladay
Pettite
Rivera
Helton


If I had to guess I'd say:
2015, Pedro-Smoltz-Randy are locks. Sheffield is tied to BALCO/Bonds but not as much of a jerk so I don't think he may not get in for at least 10 years. 2016 is interesting. I think Hoffman goes in as 2nd Best Closer of All Time, Wagner probably waits a few years. Griffey Jr. might be the first unanimous guy to get in, and Edmonds has the stats to be Top 10 CF of all time. He probably won't get in on 1st Ballot though.

2017 I think Vlad gets in because no PED ties, Manny won't get in because of PED's, and Pudge has been linked to Canseco. Varitek and Wakefield's best bet are Boston love, not sure that's enough for 1st Ballot. 2018, Chipper, Thome and Vizquel should be locks. Rolen probably threads the needle.

Huge log jams, doesn't even include guys like Schilling, Mussina, Clemens, Bonds, Sosa, McGwire.

[A Sith Lord?]

Originally Posted by walruswarrior

Pettitte and Helton will be nos on the first ballot. Doc would have a better chance than both of those players IMO. But I agree that it would depend on how packed the ballot is.

Helton SHOULD be a 1st Ballot guy if not log jammed.

He was clean (IMO), and was loyal to a mediocre franchise in Colorado.

At his peak from 2000-2004, he was definitely one of the best 1B in the league offensively and defensively. I know a lot of writers will give him crap for playing half of his games at Coors, but I still think he's deserving of 1st Ballot. 2nd Ballot no later. My problem with Helton is, if he gets elected then McGriff should be in also. McGriff had like 490 homers but he gets overlooked because his stats don't look as sexy next to McGwire's. His peak was late 80's early 90's.

I actually question Pettite's ability to get elected at all, since he was linked to Mitchell Report + Clemens + Brian McNamee.

[walruswarrior]

Originally Posted by MasturB

Helton SHOULD be a 1st Ballot guy if not log jammed.

He was clean (IMO), and was loyal to a mediocre franchise in Colorado.

At his peak from 2000-2004, he was definitely one of the best 1B in the league offensively and defensively. I know a lot of writers will give him crap for playing half of his games at Coors, but I still think he's deserving of 1st Ballot. 2nd Ballot no later. My problem with Helton is, if he gets elected then McGriff should be in also. McGriff had like 490 homers but he gets overlooked because his stats don't look as sexy next to McGwire's. His peak was late 80's early 90's.

I actually question Pettite's ability to get elected at all, since he was linked to Mitchell Report + Clemens + Brian McNamee.

Coors will be held against him just like Walker. Helton has less than 400 HR's. Only a 5 time All-Star, never finished above 5th in MVP voting. 2000 and 2001 were his best years and his other seasons were very good. He's no 1st ballot HOF and probably not a HOF at all. You compare him to Thomas and it's not even close.

[A Sith Lord?]

Originally Posted by walruswarrior

Coors will be held against him just like Walker. Helton has less than 400 HR's. Only a 5 time All-Star, never finished above 5th in MVP voting. 2000 and 2001 were his best years and his other seasons were very good. He's no 1st ballot HOF and probably not a HOF at all. You compare him to Thomas and it's not even close.

Normally I would agree but you have to remember a lot of the writers are old guard guys and still value the old school tradition. Helton fits that mold.

Tim Raines is arguably one of the best leadoff men statistically not named Rickey Henderson but he isn't getting any love.

Helton will get major points for being loyal to one franchse for 17 seasons, and being their franchise and face of the organization.

Walker wasn't a Rockie his entire career like Helton.

Helton gets in because it'd be fitting to have him as the 1st Colorado Rockie elected and inducted into the hall. Can't think of anybody else that has meant more to that franchise than Helton.

[A Sith Lord?]

Forgot to even mention Edgar who I think should be voted in within the next 5 years.

[sycro]

Originally Posted by MasturB

We're looking at a HUGE log jam for the next half decade of HOF ballots.

Here are notable players that will be eligible for election on first-time ballots.

2015:
Pedro
Randy
Smoltz
Sheffield
Nomar

2016:
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Jim Edmonds
Ken Griffey

2017:
Varitek
Wakefield
Posada
Magg Pipes
Vlad
Manny
Pudge

2018:
Moyer
Vizquel
Rolen
Andruw
Damon
Jim Thome
Chipper
Matsui
Kerry Wood
Millwood

2019
Halladay
Pettite
Rivera
Helton


If I had to guess I'd say:
2015, Pedro-Smoltz-Randy are locks. Sheffield is tied to BALCO/Bonds but not as much of a jerk so I don't think he may not get in for at least 10 years. 2016 is interesting. I think Hoffman goes in as 2nd Best Closer of All Time, Wagner probably waits a few years. Griffey Jr. might be the first unanimous guy to get in, and Edmonds has the stats to be Top 10 CF of all time. He probably won't get in on 1st Ballot though.

2017 I think Vlad gets in because no PED ties, Manny won't get in because of PED's, and Pudge has been linked to Canseco. Varitek and Wakefield's best bet are Boston love, not sure that's enough for 1st Ballot. 2018, Chipper, Thome and Vizquel should be locks. Rolen probably threads the needle.

Huge log jams, doesn't even include guys like Schilling, Mussina, Clemens, Bonds, Sosa, McGwire.

I've bolded the ones I think make it from this lit.

[walruswarrior]

Originally Posted by sycro

I've bolded the ones I think make it from this lit.

I think Pudge and Posada will both make it as well. Oh and Doc for sure.

[A Sith Lord?]

Originally Posted by sycro

I've bolded the ones I think make it from this lit.

First ballot or ever?

Edmonds has a strong case as being one of the best offensive (and defensive) centerfielders in the game. I also think Andruw Jones gets in. 434 homers during the steroid era, and he played a premium offensive position in CF. He earned 10 straight gold gloves (not given, like Jeter who has absolutely no range at short but still won a GG) and played the best defensive centerfield statistically and basically by any scout who was old enough to have seen he and Mays play.

Rolen and Halladay will make it, the question is whether or not it's first ballot.

[A Sith Lord?]

Originally Posted by walruswarrior

I think Pudge and Posada will both make it as well. Oh and Doc for sure.

Pudge has the PED link to Canseceo.

Don't know how much that will hurt him tbh.

[walruswarrior]

Originally Posted by MasturB

First ballot or ever?

Edmonds has a strong case as being one of the best offensive (and defensive) centerfielders in the game. I also think Andruw Jones gets in. 434 homers during the steroid era, and he played a premium offensive position in CF. He earned 10 straight gold gloves (not given, like Jeter who has absolutely no range at short but still won a GG) and played the best defensive centerfield statistically and basically by any scout who was old enough to have seen he and Mays play.

Rolen and Halladay will make it, the question is whether or not it's first ballot.

Rolen no. Halladay possibly. I would put him in as a first ballot guy, but I can see why others wouldn't. Edmonds no. Andruw probably not. You're putting a lot of players in that I don't think will make it. Although lately this has trended otherwise, this is the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Very Good.

[walruswarrior]

Originally Posted by MasturB

Pudge has the PED link to Canseceo.

Don't know how much that will hurt him tbh.

You're probably right about that, but Pudge was one of the best defensive catchers to ever play and he was more than proficient with his bat.

[A Sith Lord?]

My Braves homerism coming into play.

One of the best catches I've ever seen in my life.

ATL@MON: Andruw makes the diving catch to end it - YouTube

Not only has the best defensive centerfielder played for the Braves.... but now I get to watch a shortstop that's likely to be a better shortstop on Ozzie's level in Andrelton Simmons.

Andrelton Simmons - Defensive Highlights - 2013 - YouTube

[Clark Kent]

Originally Posted by MasturB

Pudge has the PED link to Canseceo.

Don't know how much that will hurt him tbh.

I think it knocks him off first-ballot consideration. He's a definite Hall of Famer that will probably take a few years to get in, much like Piazza. If the writers have PED suspicions about a player, it is clearly affecting their vote totals.

Halladay is an interesting case, because his counting stats aren't that great by old-school standards. But almost everyone considered him the best pitcher in MLB for several years and he pitched in the very tough AL East.

[A Sith Lord?]

Originally Posted by walruswarrior

Rolen no. Halladay possibly. I would put him in as a first ballot guy, but I can see why others wouldn't. Edmonds no. Andruw probably not. You're putting a lot of players in that I don't think will make it. Although lately this has trended otherwise, this is the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Very Good.

The question is what you describe as fame.

The reason Biggio didn't amke it first ballot is because his peak wasn't the greatest and his numbers are from compiling many seasons.

If you want to break it down, Scott Rolen is probably Top 3 defensive third baseman in history, and offensively Top 15 all time at 3rd base (an argument can be made for Top 10).

Third Base is the position with the least amount of players elected in the Hall. Great third baseman don't exactly come along on trees, and Rolen for many years was one of the best 3B in the league. He was in Chipper's shadow for many years, especially those doom years when Philly was awful.

Edmonds and Andruw Jones are two guys that were exceptional at CF defensively and offensively. Looking at their numbers, they are very comparable to Kirby Puckett.

Four of the best to ever play CF in the Hall: Cobb, Mays, Dimaggio, Mantle... only Mays and maybe Joe-D played defense on par with Andruw and Edmonds.

Andruw is respected by many writers to be the greatest defensive centerfielder of all time, if not on par with Mays. I think if Ozzie Smith gets elected on pure defense since his offense was atrocious, then Andruw and Vizquel will get in.

[walruswarrior]

Originally Posted by MasturB

The question is what you describe as fame.

The reason Biggio didn't amke it first ballot is because his peak wasn't the greatest and his numbers are from compiling many seasons.

If you want to break it down, Scott Rolen is probably Top 3 defensive third baseman in history, and offensively Top 15 all time at 3rd base (an argument can be made for Top 10).

Third Base is the position with the least amount of players elected in the Hall. Great third baseman don't exactly come along on trees, and Rolen for many years was one of the best 3B in the league. He was in Chipper's shadow for many years, especially those doom years when Philly was awful.

Edmonds and Andruw Jones are two guys that were exceptional at CF defensively and offensively. Looking at their numbers, they are very comparable to Kirby Puckett.

Four of the best to ever play CF in the Hall: Cobb, Mays, Dimaggio, Mantle... only Mays and maybe Joe-D played defense on par with Andruw and Edmonds.

Andruw is respected by many writers to be the greatest defensive centerfielder of all time, if not on par with Mays. I think if Ozzie Smith gets elected on pure defense since his offense was atrocious, then Andruw and Vizquel will get in.

Tim Raines compares with Puckett and he isn't getting into the HOF.

[A Sith Lord?]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

I think it knocks him off first-ballot consideration. He's a definite Hall of Famer that will probably take a few years to get in, much like Piazza. If the writers have PED suspicions about a player, it is clearly affecting their vote totals.

Halladay is an interesting case, because his counting stats aren't that great by old-school standards. But almost everyone considered him the best pitcher in MLB for several years and he pitched in the very tough AL East.

It's tough to judge modern pitchers because counting stats are going to be borderline. We'll probably never see another 300 game winner in our lifetime. Halladay was an elite pitcher for a good period, and did it in two leagues to boot.

Pudge actually has the PED ties, whereas Piazza doesn't. Piazza is hurt by the fact his defense was awful, his bat is what gets him in as he has most homers for a catcher all-time. I think Piazza gets in next year minimum, the year after at the latest.

[A Sith Lord?]

Originally Posted by walruswarrior

Tim Raines compares with Puckett and he isn't probably getting into the HOF.

Raines has until 2020 to make it in, I think he has a really good chance. I think he's starting to get more love because of sabermetrics and people realizing how good of a leadoff man he was (probably the best not named Rickey Henderson). Just look at Raines' OBP. Beast.

The reason his vote totals aren't that high right now is because of the logjam with PED players who aren't going to get in, then guys like Schilling, Mussina, Larry Walker, McGriff, Lee Smith that people need to vote for just so they can stay on the ballot.

Then you have the Morris conundrum.

[walruswarrior]

Originally Posted by MasturB

Raines has until 2020 to make it in, I think he has a really good chance. I think he's starting to get more love because of sabermetrics and people realizing how good of a leadoff man he was (probably the best not named Rickey Henderson).

The reason his vote totals aren't that high right now is because of the logjam with PED players who aren't going to get in, then guys like Schilling, Mussina, Larry Walker, McGriff, Lee Smith that people need to vote for just so they can stay on the ballot.

Then you have the Morris conundrum.

I don't think he makes it because of the logjam in upcoming years. Now that might change if they alter the voting process, but I don't see him making it and he will probably be a repeat of Morris.

[A Sith Lord?]

Originally Posted by walruswarrior

I don't think he makes it because of the logjam. Now that might change if they alter the voting process, but I don't see him making it and will probably be a repeat of Morris.

It depends on who is still available to be voted in.

If I had to play it out for the next 5 years, and assuming that the writers only elect 4 at the max, and 3 minimum each year...

2015:
Randy Johnson
Pedro
Smoltz
Biggio

2016:
Bagwell
Griffey Jr.
Hoffman
Piazza

2017:
Vlad
Schilling
Maybe Edmonds on second ballot.
Maybe Edgar or Raines

2018:
Chipper
Thome
Maybe Edgar or Raines
Rolen borderline first ballot. Maybe Edmonds on third.

2019:
Maybe Edgar or Raines
Rivera
Mussina
Maybe Jeff Kent

2020:
Edgar or Raines by now.
Jeff Kent
Maybe Pudge, Maybe Sheffield, Viszquel on 3rd Ballot.
Maybe Andruw on 3rd ballot.

[walruswarrior]

Originally Posted by MasturB

It depends on who is still available to be voted in.

If I had to play it out for the next 5 years, and assuming that the writers only elect 4 at the max, and 3 minimum each year...

2015:
Randy Johnson
Pedro
Smoltz
Biggio

2016:
Bagwell
Griffey Jr.
Hoffman
Piazza

2017:
Vlad
Schilling
Maybe Edmonds on second ballot.
Maybe Edgar or Raines

2018:
Chipper
Thome
Maybe Edgar or Raines
Rolen borderline first ballot. Maybe Edmonds on third.

2019:
Maybe Edgar or Raines
Rivera
Mussina
Maybe Jeff Kent

2020:
Edgar or Raines by now.
Jeff Kent
Maybe Pudge, Maybe Sheffield, Viszquel on 3rd Ballot.
Maybe Andruw on 3rd ballot.

If you say so. That's a pretty flawed rationale because there are years where no players are inducted or there are less than expected. There were only three this year when most believed at least 4 would make it.