Archived: Ask the Insiders: Judgment Day Edition

[blindcat87]

Years ago, when MS dodged the first big antitrust charges brought against them, a friend of mine commented that they had been allowed to grow too big and powerful to ever get caught by anti trust laws. I made one of those open ended friendly bets with him that it would only make them more confident and arrogant and the while they might escape time and time again, eventually that cycle would lead them to that one big mistake they can't get out of.

I would so love to see MS split apart and its various parts each sent to stand in their own little corner.

I dream of the day I can dump Windows from my life. I am beginning to think it will come when my RP is cured rather than when the Apple text to speech becomes functional enough. Of course, that would be fine with me.

Chris

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

I was think that as well.

[tazpc]

I was reading this thread as I often do but I rarely post. Looked back at a post I made on AVF almost a year ago.

"Interesting debate? One of the questions to ask and may be at the core of some strategies (speculating only). Why are MS backing HD-DVD? Why at this particular time? It may actually be the the death of both HD-DVD and BLU RAY. Which might actually be the desired outcome for MS. It can then move onto digital distribution once the dust settles.If MS had not backed Toshiba at this point I wonder what the state of play would be. I personally prefer to own my disk rather than have the data on the HDD..."

Looks like MSFT have finally come clean on that strategy. A year on and hopefully we can start moving to a single format this year. Happy new year to you all

Taz

[eat_me_cool]

MS won't finance HD-DVD because even if they did continue the format war, they still won't win. First, downloads just won't be good enough for most people. Second studio's will not hand control of their business to a massive monopoly and third, dual format will eventually make the format war irrelevant.

If the BDA and Toshiba renegotiate their patent share pool and fees dual format payers could be $199 in a years time, not ideal, but all MS's efforts would have come to nothing.

[WickyWoo]

One thing that people also need to note- The Netflix factor

Netflix rocks, but there:s one downside- browsing

It:s very hard to browse an online listing like you do in a store, and very few people will want to give that up

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by eat_me_cool

MS won't finance HD-DVD because even if they did continue the format war, they still won't win. First, downloads just won't be good enough for most people. Second studio's will not hand control of their business to a massive monopoly and third, dual format will eventually make the format war irrelevant.

If the BDA and Toshiba renegotiate their patent share pool and fees dual format payers could be $199 in a years time, not ideal, but all MS's efforts would have come to nothing.

Let's just make this cystal clear for anyone that may be suffering under such delusions of some fantasy la-la land where 2 HD formats go skipping off together hand in hand across sun drenched fields of buttercups and daisies...

THERE IS NO DUAL FORMAT FUTURE.

[GTP]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

Let's just make this cystal clear for anyone that may be suffering under such delusions of some fantasy la-la land where 2 HD formats go skipping off together hand in hand across sun drenched fields of buttercups and daisies...

THERE IS NO DUAL FORMAT FUTURE.

Spoken for truth.

[PaulGo]

Toshiba though will need to offer one for a year or two for a transition to Blu.

[reiella]

Originally Posted by flyingdutchman

Boy, I see antitrust lawsuits all over this one.

Sorta kinda...

Although I don't think it'd go the way you expect. Just because microsoft is psuedo-monopoly in one field doesn't mean monopoly in all fields.

Referencing these two areas [Optical Media and Digital Distribution], Microsoft is most certainly not a monopoly. In fact, in one of those, Microsoft is in direct competition with a Near-Monopoly.

Doubtful anti-trust would come out of it at this juncture. Microsoft may well have to open PVP-UAB specs though [which would really defeat the purpose of the PVP-UAB, imo] to allow 3rd parties to develop software side-solutions to enable it.

But, even that is questionable. FairPlay has yet to get forced open either.

For anti-trust to apply to Microsoft, you have to make the point that they're leveraging their monopoly, when right now, all they're leveraging is their money.

[Frode]

As I stated in my earlier post with Microsoft you are getting in bed with the devil and tying yourself to a proprietary solution.

Well of course they are. ALL downloadable content models use proprietary solutions - there's no "standard" DRM. I suspect that's part of the problem with finalizing MMC for AACS. They have to come up with some kind of interface and certification process that various DRMs can use, while maintaining the security and integrity of the content.

If I was a content provider and was given a choice what DRM provider to use, I'd most likely go with Microsoft's over say, Apple, for VOD services. They've come much further in providing media center client devices, and we're starting to see TV sets coming with MCE built in. They have the end-to-end infrastructure to handle it. For PMP devices however itunes+ipod seems to be the obvious choice. Sony sadly, has nothing to compete with at the moment, even though the PS3 and PSP could be used, they don't have the DRM in place.

MS knows this, and they want to leverage their current position in an attempt to get the content providers lined up before anyone else does. We've already seen how they can determine the results of a format war.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

Toshiba though will need to offer one for a year or two for a transition to Blu.

Don't mean to be harsh but that is a load of rubbish. What most people mean by dual-format future is both HD formats continuing as viable & profitable products in the marketplace.

If, following the victory of Blu-ray (the event that triggers this will hopefully happen soon), Toshiba & the idiot studios want to continue supporting their failed format for all eternity that's their lookout, but it won't be on the basis of viability or profitability. It will be akin to Fox's lingering support of Laserdisc when pretty much everyone else had abandoned ship.

Of course HD DVD will continue to exist (in museums & curio shoppes) but that does not constitute a dual-format future.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Alan Gordon

Given Sony's planned release of "Hancock" on July 2nd, 2008, a June/July timeframe would be most timely, wouldn't you say?

~Alan

I don’t know ~Alan.
Like I said, that is entirely up to the marketing gurus to decide when to release it.
I would certainly not expect it to debut before July.

If some fans of Men In Black are attending CES, I would suggest that when you see the clips of this flick running on the displays, approach one of the reps there and put a plug in by asking that it be released as soon as possible. They will carry the message.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Delta_FX

Does this include Men in Black II or just the first one?

Encoding/authoring hasn’t even begun on II so, if the studio desired to release them together, you’re talking about a long delay.

[elwaylite]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

I don’t know ~Alan.
Like I said, that is entirely up to the marketing gurus to decide when to release it.
I would certainly not expect it to debut before July.

If some fans of Men In Black are attending CES, I would suggest that when you see the clips of this flick running on the displays, approach one of the reps there and put a plug in by asking that it be released as soon as possible. They will carry the message.

Out of curiosity, why do you say "July". Any particular reason, or is that just the plan because of other titles.

[jsb_hburg]

Originally Posted by reiella

Sorta kinda...

Although I don't think it'd go the way you expect. Just because microsoft is psuedo-monopoly in one field doesn't mean monopoly in all fields.

Referencing these two areas [Optical Media and Digital Distribution], Microsoft is most certainly not a monopoly. In fact, in one of those, Microsoft is in direct competition with a Near-Monopoly.

Doubtful anti-trust would come out of it at this juncture. Microsoft may well have to open PVP-UAB specs though [which would really defeat the purpose of the PVP-UAB, imo] to allow 3rd parties to develop software side-solutions to enable it.

But, even that is questionable. FairPlay has yet to get forced open either.

For anti-trust to apply to Microsoft, you have to make the point that they're leveraging their monopoly, when right now, all they're leveraging is their money.

Microsoft is a monopolist in certain product markets. It is not necessarily unlawful for a person to be a monopolist. Violations of state or federal antitrust laws occur when a person unlawfully maintains or acquires a monopoly. A legal monopoly may develop from sheer business acumen or superior product.

The monopoly leveraging theory as a cause of action has been weakened over time and especially in certain circuits such as the Third Circuit where plaintiff would have to allege that the defendant is using its monopoly power in one market to effectuate at least an attempted monopoly in another. In the Third Circuit, a plaintiff may as well bring a straightforward attempted monopoly case.

It is not necessarily unlawful for a person to obtain exclusives. It becomes problematic when that person is a monopolist or a monopsonist as the case may be.

[bassbone57]

Originally Posted by zipbags

Just curious. Is their a list that shows what industry all of the insiders work in(ie-studios, production)?

Thanks!

See the first post of this thread.

-K

[Living Near Shamu]

Penton-Man,

First of all, thanks for all your info. Couldn't be without it. Second, wat is your take on this https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=28986 ? Any ideas, thoughts?

[edgebsl]

Has anyone alerted apple?

I bet Jobbs would have something to say about MS trying to make it so you can't download movies on I-tunes products, I-Pods, I phones or any Mac pcs or notebooks.

I for one have no intentions of purchasing downloads. Call me old fashioned but if you are going to sell me something I want something I can hold in my hand. Something real and physical I can say I own. And something I can play at my friend's house or traveling on portable players. But nonetheless if this gets going, apple is going to want a piece. And seeing how they are at their strongest with digital media right now, I think studios would be stupid to try and let MS limit their content off of apple devices.

Isnt it something that no matter how this turns out, MS has shown it's true colors and there is no longer an illusion of a MS agenda that includes making a success out of hd ddvd and toppling blu ray? They've pretty much thrown in the optical disc towel and moved on to the next order of business.

By singing into hd dvd exclusively, either a new studio or one renewing its existing agreement, they would be signing onto something it's main backer has already delcared dead.

Unless Homer Simpson himself is running a studio now, this should be game over as far as hd dvdv/blu ray is concerned.

[galz]

Isn't Sony working on their own dl service for content?

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by Living Near Shamu

Penton-Man,

First of all, thanks for all your info. Couldn't be without it. Second, what is your take on this https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=28986 ? Any ideas, thoughts?

I was thinking of posting that in here, but there were too many different topics all rolled out, and I didn't want to take anything away from this thread.

As the author of that thread, I would also be interested in the insiders views on my very long rant.

Thanks,
Joe

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Besides that $50 billion stack of chips?

The point is, the Blu-ray big players have an equally large stack of chips, plus a format on the verge of worldwide dominance, not to mentione the PS3 and a download service of their very own about to launch. If they aren't willing to spend the $ when a decisive win is so close, fair play to MS and HD-DVD/downloads, they thouroghly deserve to win, the Blu-ray camp quite obviously were the ones spinning us along, not MS/Toshiba. Blu-ray owners, time and again, put their hands in their pocket to support the format, but the BDA, when the decisive moment arrived, weren't.

That would be my interpretation if a MS deal won WB anyhow.