Archived: Ask the Insiders: Judgment Day Edition

[gandley]

Originally Posted by Steverhcp02

Hey Max.

Is this the first time MSFT has actually laid down their cards? Is this really like the "finally the truth comes out" type of thing it feels like, or has this been ongoing and a meeting finally took place.....

also, whats the perception around the office? Is this widely viewed as a possible benefit to HD DVD or a "boy its about time they said it" type of move?

Seems liek if this is the first coming out of the closet for MSFT they must really be backed into a corner because they really dont seem to have very good bargaining chip atm.

millions of $$ seems like a pretty good chip to me. what he said^^ LOL

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Well I wouldn’t worry, if I were you. I think it would be best described for a consumer to have cautious optimism.

I’m still confident for a good expedited outcome but, I have been in this business too long to count my chickens before their hatched…..meaning until the Fat Lady actually sings.

I’ve seen some of the most unexpected things happen at the last moment on the turn of a dime. (The only thing that I am 100% certain about in the near future is that Chris C. will be joining Sony on Jan.1, 2008 and be reporting directly to someone at Sony Pictures…… and he is a helluva a negotiator for things like 4K Digital Cinema )

The most encouraging thing that has come out of the behind the scenes maneuvering is that a software company is finally showing its true colors (a *we could care less attitude about packaged media*) as they are unwilling to get deeply involved with *oshibo* corruption unless a certain studio grants them a multi-year live download package.

I doubts that’s gonna happen.

It appears our always to be trusted super hero insider PM dropped the news of MSFT laying it all out already today (last bolded paragraph by me)

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

WB aren't weak enough to take them up on this, but other studios are a different story. Universal already got sucked in once, what do you think they will do if MS come in with the velvet suitcases for exclusive digital distribution rights...

I have to admit the above has me worried a bit. A lot of us have assumed that if WB went Blu excl., that Universal would go neutral at some point thereafter. So, are you saying that a "weak" studio like Universal may skip out on HDM all together if HD DVD dies out in 2008/2009 and go right to exclusive downloads ONLY (i.e. no HDM)? That would be ridiculous. Or are you saying that they would sign for exclusivity in the download arena, but still have an HDM offering & revenue stream?

Hollywood needs to get rid of this Microsoft cancer right now before it's too late.

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by gandley

millions of $$ seems like a pretty good chip to me. what he said^^ LOL

hehe, yeah, but the most important variable is WB would need all th emoney they would stand to make form a single HDM (BD) up front for the next 7-10 years......im pretty sure WB would make (profit) form a single unified HDM over the next 10 years than MSFT could spend...its not just the money MSFT could give it must be weighed base don what WB would be giving up (HDM on a physical disc essentially)

[PaulGo]

A partnership with Microsoft is like selling your soul to the devil. The only concern for Microsoft is Microsoft. They will promise you sort term gain for your sole - basically they want to control you and when they say jump you say how far. In their history they have demoralized and undermined many companies. When the say an open standard they mean Microsoft proprietary technology that will obligate you to them forever. They have played Toshiba like a fiddle. without their prompting Toshiba would never have launched HD-DVD. Now they will just walk away and cut their losses. Actually if they did anything different I would be surprised.

Do any of you get the felling that I don't like Microsoft?

[gandley]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

A partnership with Microsoft is like selling your sole to the devil. The only concern for Microsoft is Microsoft. They will promise you sort term gain for your sole - basically they want to control you and when they say jump you say how far. In their history they have demoralized and undermined many companies. When the say an open standard they mean Microsoft proprietary technology that will obligate you to them forever. They have played Toshiba like a fiddle. without their prompting Toshiba would never have launched HD-DVD. Now they will just walk away and cut their losses. Actually if they did anything different I would be surprised.

Do any of you get the felling that I don't like Microsoft?

Whats to like!!

[gandley]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

It's definitely not advantageous to HD DVD, no one I have spoken to thinks any of the big seven are stupid enough to enter this kind of exclusive deal for an unproven technology. So the fact that MS have basically said that it is over for HD DVD and stated that they now feel downloads are the way forwards doesn't help them, no.

It was sort of on the cards though. You forget that when people like Michael Bay speak up, Hollywood listens. So I imagine the studios have been half expecting a move like this from MS for a while now and have been ready for it. We have been advising our clients in Hollywood on this matter extensively over the last six or seven months, we know they were ready.

Excellent. and good job.

man im glad i stayed up 2nite, 3 AM and peeing coffee

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

It's definitely not advantageous to HD DVD, no one I have spoken to thinks any of the big seven are stupid enough to enter this kind of exclusive deal for an unproven technology. So the fact that MS have basically said that it is over for HD DVD and stated that they now feel downloads are the way forwards doesn't help them, no.

It was sort of on the cards though. You forget that when people like Michael Bay speak up, Hollywood listens. So I imagine the studios have been half expecting a move like this from MS for a while now and have been ready for it. We have been advising our clients in Hollywood on this matter extensively over the last six or seven months, we know they were ready.

Awesome. So great to have insiders i couldn't imagine living through a format war without you guys!

[fire23]

Hey. I am new to the site. I was wondering about this newest information though. Wouldnt if someone could prove that it is more than a rumor make a viable case against M$. Just hear me out. It is pretty obvious that most of the industry doesn't like M$ for there actions. And it is very obvious that both the US and almost every other court system doesnt like M$. And finally would it not be the case the US court is looking for if they want to restore a image of a proper law system for this type of situation, you have to think about American hubris there.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

All contracts have their limits, and buy-outs, and clauses. So no, I don't expect the 'weaker' studios to skip HDM altogether, just until they can free themselves of the contract that says they can't release on Blu. Most likely MS will ask for HD DVD not to be tied to their downloads and draw up separate contracts for each. That is pure guesswork though, based on past actions by MS.

Ok, I feel better now. I thought we were talking downloads exclusively on M$'s platform in lieu of HDM.

They can have their downloads. As long as I got packaged media from all studios in the highest quality available (Blu Ray as it stands today, but who know what happens 10 yrs from now), I'm a happy camper.

[bassbone57]

Originally Posted by Esox50

Ok, I feel better now. I thought we were talking downloads exclusively on M$'s platform in lieu of HDM.

They can have their downloads. As long as I got packaged media from all studios in the highest quality available (Blu Ray as it stands today, but who know what happens 10 yrs from now), I'm a happy camper.

My sentiments exactly.

-K

[Jamh]

Wow, just wow. I knew that M$ was low, but wow.

EDIT: Question already answered, thanks Max.

[gandley]

So im going on a limb then and say Disney are not pressing those TL51s then

[blindcat87]

Mucho thanks for staying up so late to keep us informed. Very appreciated.

Happy New Year to you and the other insiders as well!

Chris

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Right guys, I got to go it's pretty late around these parts, 3:30am. This will be the last you will see of me for a while now. V. busy with work and other stuff.

Happy new year!

[Alan Gordon]

Happy New Year Max!!

Thanks for the great info... thought it was kind of ironic considering the story below:

Wal-Mart Pulls Plug on Movies via the Web

~Alan

[Blu Titan]

Great job by Penton-Man and Max, they are awesome! I am very proud to be a blu-ray owner. Hopefully Legend makes $300 million for WB Anyways, I would like to ask Penton or Max...Will we have a "clearer" picture of future events by CES?

[zipbags]

Just curious. Is their a list that shows what industry all of the insiders work in(ie-studios, production)?

Thanks!

[Frode]

Actually I can easily see the content companies going to MS to distribute their content online if they can get convinced that they have a viable business model. I don't see them doing it at the cost of sacrificing HD on optical media though. So lets turn arount the stipulation earlier: Instead of "We'll pay you to back HD DVD if you also release content exclusively on Live" was there a case of "We'll give you this good deal on online distribution IF you back HD DVD/quit HD optical"?

[blindcat87]

I loved this part:

Wal-Mart.com’s offering may have been further hindered by its digital rights management
software, known as D.R.M., meant to protect the movie from being copied. It prevented
downloaded movies from being watched on more than one computer or on popular mobile
devices like the iPod. Wal-Mart.com’s digital movies were protected by Microsoft’s
anticopying software and could be played only using Microsoft’s Windows Media Player
program.
In a research note published Friday, Rich Greenfield, an analyst with Pali Capital,
said the D.R.M. might have doomed Wal-Mart’s movie service. “We suspect a key reason
behind Wal-Mart’s decision to exit the digital video download business was the need
for D.R.M., which prevented the content from working with iPods,” he wrote. “Anywhere
you look, Apple’s devices are winning, forcing content holders’ hands.”


and this one, while not overly relevant to recent discussion is a point certain recently schooled red purveyors of propoganda might want to keep in mind:

Movie studios, though, have been more cautious in their approach, particularly when
dealing with Steven P. Jobs, Apple’s chief executive, who has been a leader in the
move to offer entertainment online. The fear was that Mr. Jobs would undermine studio’s
traditional DVD business in a bid to sell more iPods. With the exception of Walt
Disney, where Mr. Jobs is the largest shareholder, the studios have been holding
out for better financial terms.

Yep Disney sure must be going to town on those TL-51 discs ready for their exclusive move after accepting Ms's offer.

Since all of the studios were witness to this from the perspective of content providers, I think they will all have to take this into consideration when looking at MS's bags o' cash. Add in that they all know the facts recently under discussion of MS's methods and tactics and that many of them are very leery of any deals that hands over too much control of any aspect of the handling of their properties, and I don't see this going too far now.

I would love some perspective from our insiders who are with specific studios, but I doubt that this would be a topic they could comment on too much.

Chris

Originally Posted by Alan Gordon

Happy New Year Max!!

Thanks for the great info... thought it was kind of ironic considering the story below:

Wal-Mart Pulls Plug on Movies via the Web

~Alan

[PaulGo]

Originally Posted by Frode

Actually I can easily see the content companies going to MS to distribute their content online if they can get convinced that they have a viable business model. I don't see them doing it at the cost of sacrificing HD on optical media though. So lets turn arount the stipulation earlier: Instead of "We'll pay you to back HD DVD if you also release content exclusively on Live" was there a case of "We'll give you this good deal on online distribution IF you back HD DVD/quit HD optical"?

Their are a lot better alternatives than going to Microsoft for digital distribution. As I stated in my earlier post with Microsoft you are getting in bed with the devil and tying yourself to a proprietary solution. If you look at Windows Media Player as an example is only worked on Windows. It locked out Apple and Linux users. I believe Microsoft wants optical media to fail to push their digital distribution and they will do everything it takes to destroy it. the latest post by Amir on AVS is an extensive list showing the faults of optical media (both HD-DVD and Blu-ray). With the imminent failure of HD-DVD we now are seeing Microsoft's true colors.