Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[bruceames]

Gyms, theaters and most restuarants are so screwed. I shudder to think of the landscape in that regard in a year from now.

[bruceames]

I read that the top 6 businesses had revenue increases of around 30% in Q2, at the expense of small businesses that were forced to close. Costco, Target, Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot and Lowes did very well. The big get bigger and the small get trampled.

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by MrHT

Funny thing, when I walk outside, I can still tell if a woman is attractive even though her face is covered with a face mask. But then again, if she took off her face mask, I might be unpleasantly surprised.

You might want to look into the burgeoning industry of 'corona porn'...

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Gyms, theaters and most restuarants are so screwed. I shudder to think of the landscape in that regard in a year from now.

Gyms and theaters, yes. But for restaurants, they can have pickup option. These restaurants don't need to shut down completely. People can pick up their orders for take out; just like many fast food restaurants have been doing for the past several months.

Honestly, it's much safer to have a pickup option as it reduces crowds. And people eat with their masks off, so the crowding in restaurants is quite dangerous. So all restaurants should just have a pickup option. That way, they still make money and people stay safe.

This is what I'm talking about. We can have an open economy but have safety measures in place. It's really that simple!

[bruceames]

That's why I said "most" restaurants, or more specifically, those heavily invested in dine-in service. Of course places like Burger King, Dominos and other places doing mostly take out anyway will be fine.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by bruceames

That's why I said "most" restaurants, or more specifically, those heavily invested in dine-in service. Of course places like Burger King, Dominos and other places doing mostly take out anyway will be fine.

I realize that, but what I'm saying is, why do these dine-in restaurants have to close completely? Can't they offer take out for now? It boggles my mind on why many of them closed completely when they didn't have to.

As for gyms, they are already screwed. A few of them closed in my neighborhood and it's only a matter of time before the rest of them do. Think about it. These gyms have been closed for six months and that's six months of membership that these gyms owe to current members. So, that means once they open, they have to work six months for free! These gyms stand no chance on surviving!

[mar3o]

Well, I went to the family gathering tonight. Nobody was coughing which is good. There was some "power laughing" going on a bit, and there was a birthday cake which involved blowing out the candles, which I really wish they had skipped. Overall things seemed pretty reasonable except for that. There were some hugs at the end and I respectfully skipped them, where I normally would take part. We were mostly in a screened indoor patio room so there was some fresh air. Now the worrying over the next few days. We'll probably be fine as my girlfriend's folks have been in contact with them over the past few weeks anyways to take her grandmother back and forth.

[Mike16]

So whats the point of a two week quarantine? If you have it, its not going anywhere, you could simply spread it after your 14 days are up. Especially since you could have it but not show any symptoms.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Mike16

So whats the point of a two week quarantine? If you have it, its not going anywhere, you could simply spread it after your 14 days are up. Especially since you could have it but not show any symptoms.

If you have it, you are only infectious for a couple of days (and many truly asymptomatic people are never infectious at all). That's why I think they should prioritizing viral load testing. There should be emphasis in producing $1 rapid antigen tests that will tell you at home if you are carrying enough viral load to infect others.

Of course it will also tell you if you have covid, and although it's accuracy is not as good as the PCR test in that regard, it is very accurate in detecting infectiousness, which is what we're really after in stopping the spread.

These quick tests will also render a 14 day quarantine unnecessary and enable large scale events to take place and can be used for schools and work environments as well. I'm afraid a vaccine is not going to be enough to open up society to its pre-covid level, given that they are only "hoping" for 60% effectiveness (that and probably having to take it on an annual basis and many won't do it).

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by Mike16

So whats the point of a two week quarantine? If you have it, its not going anywhere, you could simply spread it after your 14 days are up. Especially since you could have it but not show any symptoms.

Originally Posted by bruceames

If you have it, you are only infectious for a couple of days (and many truly asymptomatic people are never infectious at all). That's why I think they should prioritizing viral load testing. There should be emphasis in producing $1 rapid antigen tests that will tell you at home if you are carrying enough viral load to infect others.

According to this article:

https://www.health.com/condition/inf...you-contagious

Infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, MD, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Maryland, tells Health that someone who has had COVID-19 stops being contagious approximately 10 days after symptom onset and after at least three days without fever.

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by bruceames

If you have it, you are only infectious for a couple of days (and many truly asymptomatic people are never infectious at all).

Not so much:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2769235

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

Not so much:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2769235

Yes, the vast majority of transmission from an individual occurs within a window of just a few days. Of course it can last up to a week or more if the person gets very sick. But most infections are transmitted through a short window from an infected person.


If you have time, here's a really informative video of a virology expert talking to a panel. The relevant part of the window is from 19:45 to 21:00 minutes and his interview is from 3 to 40 minutes.

His comments on contact tracing and the amount of viral load required for transmission are from 13:45 to 17:00 minutes and definitely worth a listen.

TWiV 640: Test often, fast turnaround, with Michael Mina - YouTube

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Our provincial health expert in one of her recent briefings stated that 'family gatherings' were the #1 attack vector that they're seeing.

I think the issue is one of familiarity and human nature and culture.

It is much more easy to stand 2m away from a stranger (especially when you are wearing a mask that helps remind you it is not normal times) it is easier not to offer that stranger a hand, a hug, a kiss. It is much more hard to do all of that with a family member that you like and care for. It is much harder with a very young relative that might not fully understand what is happening. It is much harder to keep your wits and social distancing if you had a couple of drinks. It is easier to be suspicious of a stranger ("I don't know where they have been and what they are doing") then a family member ("____ would not be here if they have Covid-19 so they must be OK")

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yes, the vast majority of transmission from an individual occurs within a window of just a few days. Of course it can last up to a week or more if the person gets very sick. But most infections are transmitted through a short window from an infected person.


If you have time, here's a really informative video of a virology expert talking to a panel. The relevant part of the window is from 19:45 to 21:00 minutes and his interview is from 3 to 40 minutes.

His comments on contact tracing and the amount of viral load required for transmission are from 13:45 to 17:00 minutes and definitely worth a listen.

TWiV 640: Test often, fast turnaround, with Michael Mina - YouTube

The study and its results I linked to came out after the video you linked to.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by MrHT

Gyms and theaters, yes. But for restaurants, they can have pickup option. These restaurants don't need to shut down completely. People can pick up their orders for take out; just like many fast food restaurants have been doing for the past several months.

Honestly, it's much safer to have a pickup option as it reduces crowds. And people eat with their masks off, so the crowding in restaurants is quite dangerous. So all restaurants should just have a pickup option. That way, they still make money and people stay safe.

This is what I'm talking about. We can have an open economy but have safety measures in place. It's really that simple!

True, but it is not 100% accurate. It depends on what we are talking about.

1) My GF works down town in an office tower. The last day in the office she went and grabbed lunch at a restaurant that is only open 10-5 and it had to be take out that time. But for the last few months she works from home and so she does not go downtown any more. I am sure even if many places DT try doing take out only (like you say) the business can't be anywhere near as busy as it used to be. add to the discussion University hang outs.... there are many places where take out won't help that much because the people are just not there.

2) I will be honest we are not a take out sort of family, and so maybe we are not a good example. My GF and I did used to do lunches out while working but the evenings it is either go out to a restaurant (if we went out) or cooking at home, we only had the occasional take home when we both had to work late and would not have time to cook at home. Since Covid-19 there is no reason to go out, and there is a bit more free time at home for cooking. So there is no reason for take out. I am sure there are a lot of others that have more free time and tighter budgets and so skipping out on eating out.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by MrHT

I realize that, but what I'm saying is, why do these dine-in restaurants have to close completely? Can't they offer take out for now? It boggles my mind on why many of them closed completely when they didn't have to.

well there is hypothetical and then there is realty. Let's forget what I just said in my last post.

If a place just did eat in they might not have the containers needed for just take out.

If it is a fancy restaurant with fancy plating, it might not be easy to re-work the dishes to work for take out.

If a good chunk of the bill is whine (great margins little effort) it can be a lot less lucrative to do take out because a large profit margin is lost.
...

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

The study and its results I linked to came out after the video you linked to.

That study you linked to makes no mention of what the Ct values are in these patients (which were done btw in early March in Korea).

Nor does it mention what Ct values are necessary for transmission (under 30, and the vast majority under 25, with the average between 18 and 22).

The study mainly focuses on how long people remain covid positive (time to negative conversion), not how long they remain infectious.

[Pondosinatra]

More instances of reinfection...

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...3pR3JqpGw4s6dI

[Lee A Stewart]

Over 1,000 students have tested positive for Covid-19 at University of Alabama since classes resumed

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/29/us/un...rnd/index.html

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Over 1,000 students have tested positive for Covid-19 at University of Alabama since classes resumed

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/29/us/un...rnd/index.html

And we're surprised about that??? People have been advocating for schools to reopen. I don't know why. People really thought schools can reopen and infection rate wasn't going to increase??

People's minds today are really twisted! And this is why it's taking longer than it should to get through this pandemic. It's nothing more than mere stupidity!