81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by Craig Ruchman

I wonder too. Its like almost daily we hear about a small studio going blu only, all the player returns, and stores devoting ever less retail space to HD-DVD (or none are all). And they are recovering lost ground? How much can we attribute to a Super Bowl ad? Looks like the war is still on. After all, Warner is still producing DUD. Its back in the fox hole for now.

We really need some killer titles comming almost weekly on blu to keep the momentum - to get the ratios back in line. After all, Warner is not blu exclusive - yet.

It's not so much recovering lost ground, more about dumping as much HD DVD product, at cut prices, as quickly as possible so that retailers can start offering Blu-ray only to their customers.

As I said earlier, this is a short term blip and not a sustainable HD DVD revival.

Presently you can buy a HD DVD player and get 7 HD DVD movies for approx. $100. At normal Amazon prices the movies alone would cost $140! This isn't a sale. This is a purge.

We are witnessing the death throes of HD DVD. Enjoy it for what it is.

[reider]

Originally Posted by MatrixS2000

I agree - your original argument made some pretty simple assumptions where you took a snapshot of a particular weeks sale. People had to read between the lines (and that was not too difficult).

It was a very good example of what the BD sales volume needed to be to achieve a specific sales ratio given a specific volume of sales for HD DVD. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yes, simple; but much too simple of assumptions to be used in analysis of the real life conditions. You can not assume static system for one competitor and dynamic system for another... conclusions produced by this sort of analysis are erroneous and pointless.
"Nothing more, nothing less." - your are mistaken; the first post about "70 to 85 is the same as 85 to 90" was in response to people disappointed with sales figure that also implied that if they disagree then they do not know anything about microeconomics or math; I quoted Terjyn's post because it was intelligent and explanatory enough to start building my argument upon.

[Knight-Errant]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

It's not so much recovering lost ground, more about dumping as much HD DVD product, at cut prices, as quickly as possible so that retailers can start offering Blu-ray only to their customers.

As I said earlier, this is a short term blip and not a sustainable HD DVD revival.

Presently you can buy a HD DVD player and get 7 HD DVD movies for approx. $100. At normal Amazon prices the movies alone would cost $140! This isn't a sale. This is a purge.

We are witnessing the death throes of HD DVD. Enjoy it for what it is.

Yeah death throes is a good metaphor since those are usually quite energetic, yet they're not taken as evidence of an iminent recovery

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by Knight-Errant

Yeah death throes is a good metaphor since those are usually quite energetic, yet they're not taken as evidence of an iminent recovery

I prefer the "Chicken with it's Head Cut Off" metaphor. Just because it's still running around doesn't mean it's going to survive.

[Knight-Errant]

Originally Posted by Slapper

I prefer the "Chicken with it's Head Cut Off" metaphor. Just because it's still running around doesn't mean it's going to survive.

LOL well that works too!

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by reider

You sound upset. Please don't be...
Everything marked in red is you proving yourself wrong on Point 1.

Sorry I disagree. In every case I explained why the fact that they have an influence on the interdependencies of the two markets does not matter for the point I'm creating.

I'm simply making the point that a non-interdependent market without large scale massive outside influences is going to tend to a ratio of sales. This ratio is not going to massively change in the short-term, and it is harder to influence to the extreme.

Small quantities of new sales (relatively) will have no impact on this.

Major outside influences are completely and utterly besides the point.

And I simply disagree that they are dependent just because people are going Purple. 6 out of 7 major studios you have no choice, you either buy one or the other. Heading towards 7 of 7.

If I want Transformers, I don't have choice. If I want Ratatouille, I have no choice.

If I want Harry Potter, I have a choice, however as I argued I don't really have a choice. Most people only have one player. Most of those who have both are will always buy one side, for various reasons. The miniscule numbers which remain simply aren't large enough to matter.

The interdependence isn't there. Certainly not on a scale to modify the ultimate outcome.

*EDIT* Oh, and by the way, I do not understand how not having new releases of note proves interdependence.

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by Slapper

I prefer the "Chicken with it's Head Cut Off" metaphor. Just because it's still running around doesn't mean it's going to survive.

"He ripped out his own skull and beat him to death with it!"

"That doesn't seem physically possible!"

"That's the same thing he kept screaming"

Logan

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by JJxiv1215

Cute. You missed the point - I stated that the differences were still substantial in number, I was just curious as to why it's dropping weekly from 85, to 83, to 82, and now to 74. Answer me that, perhaps?

Because there have been few good releases lately. This war has never been about the hardware, never. It has always been about the software and who has the best titles. The amount of hardware sold, only sustains the natural adoption curve, it hasn't changed the weekly percentages. The big ratios and changes in ratios come with each week of new releases. The only reason HD DVD ever came close to beating BD in a single week wasn't because they had a huge firesale on hardware, it was because they had a blockbuster day and date exclusive release.

The same holds true today, only we have been bumped up an extra 15-20 digits in percentages. We'll still see ups and downs each week, no reason to panic. If HD DVD couldn't win when the average ratio was 2:1, why are people suddenly thinking they can when the average ratio is 4:1 or even 3:1?

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by JJxiv1215

Cute. You missed the point - I stated that the differences were still substantial in number, I was just curious as to why it's dropping weekly from 85, to 83, to 82, and now to 74. Answer me that, perhaps?

The difference between 85, 83 and 82 is insignifcant, the drop to 74 is down almost entirely to BOGO's and massive HD-DVD player price cuts.

The BOGO's are temporary, the player price cuts meanwhile will have a lessening effect each week, as the limited demand is fullfilled.

We've moved from an average 2-1 ratio in 2007 to 3-1, almost 4-1, so far in 2008.

There will be slight up's and downs until June when we should see another jump to 5-1+.

To put it simply, current HD-DVD sales are fullfilling demand from CURRENT HD-DVD owners, stocking up while the goings cheap.

As we move through the year, Blu-ray hardware/software sales will ramp up due to major releases and increasing confidence in the format, meanwhile HD-DVD will not be adding enough new consumers to keep pace, a result of diminishing confidence and lack of new content.

Finally, when you remove Warner content in June, HD-DVD sales will drop through the floor.

[blindcat87]

Exactly. We already had evidence that while Amazon Bogos do not have a big impact on the numbers, BB BOGOs can and do. So, it was to be expected. Had I remembered that the BOGO numbers would be hitting this week, my guess in the numbers game would have been different.

I think we will see more impact starting in March, remember that WB will stop doing new runs of their already released titles in mid March, so those will be drying up. The only question is how fast.

I see nothing to worry about. While we all hoped that the lower prices wouldn't sucker any new folks in, it was not realistic to expect that. The important thing to note is that this is more of a body hitting the pavement bounce rather than the trampoline jump back to the top that they were hoping for.

My disappointment in the numbers has more to do with shaking my head for the poor misinformed HD DVD newbies than anything else. well, and maybe shaking my head in disbelief that some of the zealots out there may actually be followig the advice of some of their compatriots and buying multiple copies of titles as gifts or to hoard.

I suspect that all of us were hoping for better numbers this week, but I just don't see it as anything to panic about, especially since there have been leaks of the NPD numbers and they don't bode well for HD DVD's hopes of regaining player sales parity.

Chris

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

The difference between 85, 83 and 82 is insignifcant, the drop to 74 is down almost entirely to BOGO's and massive HD-DVD player price cuts.

The BOGO's are tempoary, the player price cuts meanwhile will have a less ening effect each week, as the limited demand is fullfilled.

We've moved from an average 2-1 ratio in 2007 to 3-1, almost 4-1, so far in 2008.

There will be slight up's and downs until June when we should see another jump to 5-1+.

As we move into March and beyond, when the big release start to hit the market, we will also see big jumps in software sold.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by reider

Yes, simple; but much too simple of assumptions to be used in analysis of the real life conditions. You can not assume static system for one competitor and dynamic system for another... conclusions produced by this sort of analysis are erroneous and pointless.

It was just an example - it doesn't mean that HD DVD sales would remain static in real life - no one ever suggest that HD DVD sales would remain static.

"Nothing more, nothing less." - your are mistaken; the first post about "70 to 85 is the same as 85 to 90" was in response to people disappointed with sales figure that also implied that if they disagree then they do not know anything about microeconomics or math; I quoted Terjyn's post because it was intelligent and explanatory enough to start building my argument upon.

And you keep adding to his statement that he is assuming that HD DVD sales remain static even though he said that was not the case. It was an example of what the sales needed to be given a known quantity of HD DVD sales....

[Mobe1969]

Please also be aware that once the Warner stock runs out, that is it. There will be no more.

Three months time pretty much the only HDDVD titles available at all will be Universal and Paramount.

It is over. They just won't admit it yet.

[beavis667]

Originally Posted by Mobe1969

Please also be aware that once the Warner stock runs out, that is it. There will be no more.

Three months time pretty much the only HDDVD titles available at all will be Universal and Paramount.

It is over. They just won't admit it yet.

To put this into perspective, 126 of HD-DVD's total catalog is from Warner alone. They are the 2nd biggest studio supporter of HD-DVD behind Universal which is at 145 movies. So, HD-DVD will be losing their 2nd biggest studio. Their selection will go to hell. As big an impact as the WB *announcement* had, the actual effect on sales after May will be even larger.

[saprano]

guys... were winning, we won, its over, relax, ther not coming back. and nether is hd-vmd.

[reider]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Sorry I disagree. In every case I explained why the fact that they have an influence on the interdependencies of the two markets does not matter for the point I'm creating.

I'm simply making the point that a non-interdependent market without large scale massive outside influences is going to tend to a ratio of sales. This ratio is not going to massively change in the short-term, and it is harder to influence to the extreme.
Major outside influences are completely and utterly besides the point.

I thought we are discussing a particular case of BD vs. HD DVD and not some hypothetical pristine market out of freshmen economics textbook. Under no circumstances you can ignore outside influences during real market analysis. If you were making a point for a surreal market then you should have amended your statements in the first place, and I wouldn't waste my time trying to argue that point. You can also stop reading this post here if that is the case...

Originally Posted by Terjyn

And I simply disagree that they are dependent just because people are going Purple. 6 out of 7 major studios you have no choice, you either buy one or the other. Heading towards 7 of 7.If I want Transformers, I don't have choice. If I want Ratatouille, I have no choice.

Exactly! Having no choice... produces an interdependency. Side switching or becoming neutral - that is what happens when you have no choice. How is that not an interdependency? On the Transformer's week, I went to BB and bought 22 BD's and walked around the store with this stack for 30 minutes (childish? yes, I know...). How is that not an interdependency?

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Most people only have one player. Most of those who have both are will always buy one side, for various reasons. The miniscule numbers which remain simply aren't large enough to matter.

Actually you can't possibly know how many people are dual format... you are speculating to defend your point at all costs. We have share numbers for universal players - 2% (30,000?), but how many people have both XBox and PS3, PS3 and a 100$ HD DVD standalone, etc., etc. If I were allowed to speculate I'd say that at least 20% of active HDM user base is dual format. Now, try to add just 20% proportional dependency in your 70-85-90 example... you'll get 73-85-89 being equidistant.
Each little or not so little correlation between sales of the competing formats is added as a variable to make up a total dependency function. The value of this function can be small one week and can be huge another week.
Blu-Ray didn't do anything in terms of sales at all to jump from 65-35 to 85-15 it was the fall in HD DVD sales that did it. On another hand HD DVD did not do anything in terms of sales at all to jump from 85-15 to 74-26 (they actually sold less then during 2nd week of Jan) it was the fall of Blu-Ray sales that did it.

Originally Posted by Terjyn

*EDIT* Oh, and by the way, I do not understand how not having new releases of note proves interdependence.

It does not prove it - it is a little part of it. I am starting to doubt you actually even tried to understand what I was trying to explain . Some format agnostic users will look away from BD and onto the other side when there is nothing of interest on BD side. Other version is that some BD users that salivate on a couple dozen of exclusive Red titles, when there is nothing on BD side to calm their appetite are breaking and getting their free HD DVD player with a purchase of five movies.
You also decided not to argue the second mandatory condition for the 70-85-90 to be true; but as I said it is mandatory...

[Toxa]

[Mobe1969]

Originally Posted by beavis667

To put this into perspective, 126 of HD-DVD's total catalog is from Warner alone. They are the 2nd biggest studio supporter of HD-DVD behind Universal which is at 145 movies. So, HD-DVD will be losing their 2nd biggest studio. Their selection will go to hell. As big an impact as the WB *announcement* had, the actual effect on sales after May will be even larger.

Yeah, that makes it look even nastier. I seriously wish Warner had actually acted like the Nazi ******* paramount, and immediately cease HDDVD production, and recall and destroy about to be released titles like Nazi book burners Paramount. We'd be looking at 90:10 figure even a couple of weeks after the announcement, and we wouldn't have deluded HDDVD zealots thinking there was a comeback in the works...

Do you guys realize who Toshiba bought over with hundreds of millions to HD? Paramount. Who was the biggest major studio that sucked ass in the DVD realm? Who was the last studio to actually come to the DVD party, and start releasing major back catalog titles? And last to stop doing bare bones releases with shit transfers? Answer: Paramount. Toshiba can have them. Universal is more of a loss.

[Robert Siegel]

Originally Posted by Mobe1969

Yeah, that makes it look even nastier. I seriously wish Warner had actually acted like the Nazi ******* paramount, and immediately cease HDDVD production, and recall and destroy about to be released titles like Nazi book burners Paramount. We'd be looking at 90:10 figure even a couple of weeks after the announcement, and we wouldn't have deluded HDDVD zealots thinking there was a comeback in the works...

Do you guys realize who Toshiba bought over with hundreds of millions to HD? Paramount. Who was the biggest major studio that sucked ass in the DVD realm? Who was the last studio to actually come to the DVD party, and start releasing major back catalog titles? And last to stop doing bare bones releases with shit transfers? Answer: Paramount. Toshiba can have them. Universal is more of a loss.

The thing is, Paramount's releases as a whole have sucked. Toshiba never got their 150 million worth. Look at how many actual Paramount titles have been released since they went HD at all, and then even more dismal is since the exit from blu-ray. When the deal happened, I expected Paramount to push out title after title and hit on some biggies like Titanic, Ten Commandments, ect. Never happened. You're right, Universal is more of an important studio to blu-ray.

[Robert Siegel]

Originally Posted by Mobe1969

Please also be aware that once the Warner stock runs out, that is it. There will be no more.

Three months time pretty much the only HDDVD titles available at all will be Universal and Paramount.

It is over. They just won't admit it yet.

I didn't know that when currently pressed Warner hd-dvd's run out that's it.I thought they would re-press through May to meet demand, if there would be any....where did you read that? (I just ask out of curiosity, would like to read the story.. I don't own a hd-dvd player so it doesn't "worry" me).

[ryoohki]

Well you'll see another spike the week of American Gangster that's for sure... Blu-ray don't have anything substantial during that week. Will see how much it affect the things

I can tell you that, Here in Canada, combo don't sell at ALL... to the point that my local store don't order them anymore. They are 39.99$(45$ with taxes) witch is more than most $$$ than i pay for Import from UK and Asia LOL