81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by Mayor Quimby

I agree that there are much higher R&D and transfer costs. My point is that I just don't think most people will bite at $25 a film when they can get more than 2 dvd's for the same price. Remember, most people aren't quality nuts like us (well, at least, ME). Most people are more than happy with dvd quality. Now that HD-DVD is a goner, traditional dvd's are the real competition. The format war isn't over at all, it has just begun! And this is why I think they should keep prices down a bit more.

At any rate, I'm off to watch some BD goodness now...

Actually, it's worse than $25 or even $27.95. Sadly, most folks buy their DVDs and Blu's at Best Buy or Circuit City or Target. They rarely charge anything less than $29.99 for most Blu's--a few titles are $24.99. Except for sales, those are the prices most folks see when scanning titles on the shelves. I cringe whenever I'm in Target and see those prices, knowing that I'd also have to pay tax for the purchase--and Denver has a 7.3% sales tax.

Consequently, I've bought all my titles on line where at least, even at full price, they don't require paying tax and I always spend enough for free shipping and Blu's are cheaper, in most cases, than the B&M stores charge.

[reider]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

You know, this post should be a sticky on the first page.
People don't realize what a huge jump 65 to 80 actually is.
They believe the jump from 75 to 80 is the same, in terms of titles sold, as 25 to 30.

No, it should not be a "sticky". I can't believe you guys are falling for this fallacy. While mathematically correct, this is totally unacceptable for analysis of two competing products. 70 and 90 will be equidistant from 85 only if
1. the sales of one product have no bearing whatsoever on the sales of another one (e.g. Blu-Ray vs. ice cream bars) and
2. the sales of the second product are static (have no trends of its own at all).
Terjyn, are you trying to say that Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD sales comply with either of these conditions? Of course not. HD DVD has adoption trend of its own; and the sales of the two formats are tightly intertwined by title prices and availability, studios' support, user conversion/migration, and a lot more less obvious interdependencies.
It is a very possible scenario that after a few weeks of 90:10, the jump to 98:2 will occur instantly and will be totally linear.
JAGUAR1977, this is about ratios not total quantities. It is quite possible to have a jump from 55:45 to 65:35 to be much harder then from 65:35 to 85:15 (all it can take is one studio announcement).

To sum up: I suggest we stop making silly excuses for a 55% sales volume drop in the past three weeks, stop waiting for BOGO's and start buying software as we did when we felt that Warner's decision depends on it.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by reider

To sum up: I suggest we stop making silly excuses for a 55% sales volume drop in the past three weeks, stop waiting for BOGO's and start buying software as we did when we felt that Warner's decision depends on it.

Agreed.

Let's not forget that the HDM market is divided into the following groups:

1) Only have Blu-ray (standalone / PS3)
2) Only have HD DVD (standalone / Box add-on)
3) Have both Blu-ray and HD DVD

Although there is no official research, I suspect that the size of the dual ownership market is quite substantial. If you are a home theatre fan and you want to enjoy HD movies from all studios they you buy players for both formats. The vast majority of people out there enjoying HD are not posting on the web and do not have any particular dislike for Sony or Toshiba.

There are lots of people out there, who own Blu-ray players, yet are buying HD DVD movies because they are so cheap and not remotely concerned that they may be having some impact on the Nielsen HDM numbers.

It seems we'll just have to put up with less than ideal numbers until this mega firesale purges HD DVD from the retail sector.

I put together a little theoretical chart that illustrates what reider was saying. Both formats are fluid but Blu-ray is more likely to go up and HD DVD is more likely to go down.



So now you can see what Blu-ray needs to sell (and what HD DVD needs to fall to) in order to achieve the kind of ratios we all love to see.

Don't worry, not too long to wait for our first 90:10.

[minimoke]

You are all very lucky with the past BOGO's in the States.
Over here in Belgium, Netherlands,.. we pay full price for our BD's.

Only once, Disney made a buy 2, get 1 for free. that's it.

But that didn't stop us buying BD's. (What was it for Europe... 7:1...)

I hope we get some BOGO's over here to so we can up the number to maybe 10:1...

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by reider

No, it should not be a "sticky". I can't believe you guys are falling for this fallacy.

I'm not posting a fallacy, you are adding an assertion unrelated to my argument.

While mathematically correct, this is totally unacceptable for analysis of two competing products. 70 and 90 will be equidistant from 85 only if
1. the sales of one product have no bearing whatsoever on the sales of another one (e.g. Blu-Ray vs. ice cream bars) and
2. the sales of the second product are static (have no trends of its own at all).

#1 is effectively what we have now. There are some small bumps in the numbers due to this but not enough to matter to the point. See below for a longer reasoning.

#2 you are flat out wrong about, you don't need static numbers at all for what I said to be true. I used static numbers to illustrate the point but so what?

Terjyn, are you trying to say that Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD sales comply with either of these conditions? Of course not. HD DVD has adoption trend of its own; and the sales of the two formats are tightly intertwined by title prices and availability, studios' support, user conversion/migration, and a lot more less obvious interdependencies.

If all studios were releasing cross platform discs they'd be intertwined. As it is they aren't. The % of multi-platform sales of one side detracting from sales of the other are miniscule at this point.

I suppose you can disagree with this, but I don't know how. Most people still buying HD-DVDs either don't own Blu-Ray, or hate Blu-Ray and thus are guaranteed to buy the HD-DVD version, so again there is no intertwining.

The intertwining you are referring to above doesn't refer to disc sales so much as it does new player sales. Those I'll grant you, but those also represent an extremely small percentage of the existing market week-to-week. What I said breaks down over months due to this reason, but I wasn't claiming what I said was infallible for all time. I was referring to week-to-week variances.

It is a very possible scenario that after a few weeks of 90:10, the jump to 98:2 will occur instantly and will be totally linear.

No, it isn't.

JAGUAR1977, this is about ratios not total quantities. It is quite possible to have a jump from 55:45 to 65:35 to be much harder then from 65:35 to 85:15 (all it can take is one studio announcement).

And here is the assertion you added. Of course the numbers can vary wildly with major outside pressure on the market. That's what happened with Warner that caused the numbers to jump to the 80s in the first place.

That's not at all what I am referring to. I'm referring to normal week-to-week minor variances in sales percentages. Furthermore those major outside influences are in no way, shape, or form, linear influences.

BOGOs are another outside pressure, the only difference is that they are temporary.

To sum up: I suggest we stop making silly excuses for a 55% sales volume drop in the past three weeks, stop waiting for BOGO's and start buying software as we did when we felt that Warner's decision depends on it.

Sometimes there just aren't new releases people want to buy. You want to talk fallacy, it's ridiculous to claim that people should buy on weeks when there simply aren't releases they want.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

I'm not posting a fallacy, you are adding an assertion unrelated to my argument.


#1 is effectively what we have now. There are some small bumps in the numbers due to this but not enough to matter to the point. See below for a longer reasoning.

#2 you are flat out wrong about, you don't need static numbers at all for what I said to be true. I used static numbers to illustrate the point but so what?


If all studios were releasing cross platform discs they'd be intertwined. As it is they aren't. The % of multi-platform sales of one side detracting from sales of the other are miniscule at this point.

I suppose you can disagree with this, but I don't know how. Most people still buying HD-DVDs either don't own Blu-Ray, or hate Blu-Ray and thus are guaranteed to buy the HD-DVD version, so again there is no intertwining.

The intertwining you are referring to above doesn't refer to disc sales so much as it does new player sales. Those I'll grant you, but those also represent an extremely small percentage of the existing market week-to-week. What I said breaks down over months due to this reason, but I wasn't claiming what I said was infallible for all time. I was referring to week-to-week variances.


No, it isn't.


And here is the assertion you added. Of course the numbers can vary wildly with major outside pressure on the market. That's what happened with Warner that caused the numbers to jump to the 80s in the first place.

That's not at all what I am referring to. I'm referring to normal week-to-week minor variances in sales percentages. Furthermore those major outside influences are in no way, shape, or form, linear influences.

BOGOs are another outside pressure, the only difference is that they are temporary.


Sometimes there just aren't new releases people want to buy. You want to talk fallacy, it's ridiculous to claim that people should buy on weeks when there simply aren't releases they want.

I agree - your original argument made some pretty simple assumptions where you took a snapshot of a particular weeks sale. People had to read between the lines (and that was not too difficult).

It was a very good example of what the BD sales volume needed to be to achieve a specific sales ratio given a specific volume of sales for HD DVD. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

.........
Sometimes there just aren't new releases people want to buy. You want to talk fallacy, it's ridiculous to claim that people should buy on weeks when there simply aren't releases they want.

I don't think that is what was suggested. I think it was a response to those saying that there were titles they wanted but could not afford - and bemoaning the falling frequency of BOGO deals. I don't think anyone is suggesting people should go out and buy titles they don't want.

Blu-ray is a premium product and is priced accordingly. Even then, the prices you see on Amazon are not bad IMO. However if people are expecting a never ending gravy train of free movies bundled with players and half-price sales then they will be disappointed. That's not to say we've seen the last of the BOGO sales and you can look to the release dates of the last few major HD DVD releases for possible future deals.

What we saw in 2007 was two formats slugging it out to find a winner. Now we have a winner and Blu-ray will enjoy the spoils of war. That, for better or worse, includes dictating the rate at which prices fall. And they will fall - assuming Blu-ray wants to be a mass market product.

Don't forget that the BDA have forecast they will sell 40 million Blu-ray discs in 2008. They certainly won't achieve that at current pricing levels.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by MatrixS2000

It was a very good example of what the BD sales volume needed to be to achieve a specific sales ratio given a specific volume of sales for HD DVD. Nothing more, nothing less.

For example:

[JJ]

Woah. What is up with these continuing drop-offs in margin? I mean, they are still substantial in number, but I don't like how they continue to drop.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by JJxiv1215

Woah. What is up with these continuing drop-offs in margin? I mean, they are still substantial in number, but I don't like how they continue to drop.

Yeah, I know what you mean...

[JJ]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

Yeah, I know what you mean...

Cute. You missed the point - I stated that the differences were still substantial in number, I was just curious as to why it's dropping weekly from 85, to 83, to 82, and now to 74. Answer me that, perhaps?

[Blu Titan]

Next week it will be back above 80%. NO doubt

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

I don't think that is what was suggested. I think it was a response to those saying that there were titles they wanted but could not afford - and bemoaning the falling frequency of BOGO deals. I don't think anyone is suggesting people should go out and buy titles they don't want.

Blu-ray is a premium product and is priced accordingly. Even then, the prices you see on Amazon are not bad IMO. However if people are expecting a never ending gravy train of free movies bundled with players and half-price sales then they will be disappointed. That's not to say we've seen the last of the BOGO sales and you can look to the release dates of the last few major HD DVD releases for possible future deals.

What we saw in 2007 was two formats slugging it out to find a winner. Now we have a winner and Blu-ray will enjoy the spoils of war. That, for better or worse, includes dictating the rate at which prices fall. And they will fall - assuming Blu-ray wants to be a mass market product.

I would agree if that's all he said. He didn't. He was pissed that volume had dropped in the last 3 weeks. What has come out in the last 3 weeks? Seriously? Why should volume remain high at this time of year, with nothing of note actually being released? There are some who wait for BOGOs I'm sure, but how many? I never do. Because of the very premiums you talk about people who buy Blu-Rays have the money it takes to buy movies at full price.

Don't forget that the BDA have forecast they will sell 40 million Blu-ray discs in 2008. They certainly won't achieve that at current pricing levels.

How do you know?

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by JJxiv1215

Cute. You missed the point - I stated that the differences were still substantial in number, I was just curious as to why it's dropping weekly from 85, to 83, to 82, and now to 74. Answer me that, perhaps?

I'm assuming that the HD DVD player clearance and half-price HD DVD movie sales are having an impact at the moment. This is a short term problem.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

......................
How do you know?

It's what Danny Kaye from Fox said at the BDA press conference at CES. I'll dig out the Youtube clip later for you.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

It's what Danny Kaye from Fox said at the BDA press conference at CES. I'll dig out the Youtube clip later for you.

I didn't mean the quote.

I mean how do you know that they won't sell that much if prices don't come down?

[U4K61]

Originally Posted by JJxiv1215

Cute. You missed the point - I stated that the differences were still substantial in number, I was just curious as to why it's dropping weekly from 85, to 83, to 82, and now to 74. Answer me that, perhaps?

I wonder too. Its like almost daily we hear about a small studio going blu only, all the player returns, and stores devoting ever less retail space to HD-DVD (or none are all). And they are recovering lost ground? How much can we attribute to a Super Bowl ad? Looks like the war is still on. After all, Warner is still producing DUD. Its back in the fox hole for now.

We really need some killer titles comming almost weekly on blu to keep the momentum - to get the ratios back in line. After all, Warner is not blu exclusive - yet.

[ani4ani]

Originally Posted by minimoke

You are all very lucky with the past BOGO's in the States.
Over here in Belgium, Netherlands,.. we pay full price for our BD's.

Only once, Disney made a buy 2, get 1 for free. that's it.

But that didn't stop us buying BD's. (What was it for Europe... 7:1...)

I hope we get some BOGO's over here to so we can up the number to maybe 10:1...

You can benefit from the same Amazon BOGOF offers - they ship to Europe for next to peanuts

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

I didn't mean the quote.

I mean how do you know that they won't sell that much if prices don't come down?

I don't. I should have said 'I seriously doubt they will sell that many at current prices'.

[reider]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

I'm not posting a fallacy, you are adding an assertion unrelated to my argument.

#1 is effectively what we have now. There are some small bumps in the numbers due to this but not enough to matter to the point. See below for a longer reasoning.

#2 you are flat out wrong about, you don't need static numbers at all for what I said to be true. I used static numbers to illustrate the point but so what?


If all studios were releasing cross platform discs they'd be intertwined. As it is they aren't. The % of multi-platform sales of one side detracting from sales of the other are miniscule at this point.

I suppose you can disagree with this, but I don't know how. Most people still buying HD-DVDs either don't own Blu-Ray, or hate Blu-Ray and thus are guaranteed to buy the HD-DVD version, so again there is no intertwining.

The intertwining you are referring to above doesn't refer to disc sales so much as it does new player sales. Those I'll grant you, but those also represent an extremely small percentage of the existing market week-to-week. What I said breaks down over months due to this reason, but I wasn't claiming what I said was infallible for all time. I was referring to week-to-week variances.

And here is the assertion you added. Of course the numbers can vary wildly with major outside pressure on the market. That's what happened with Warner that caused the numbers to jump to the 80s in the first place.

That's not at all what I am referring to. I'm referring to normal week-to-week minor variances in sales percentages. Furthermore those major outside influences are in no way, shape, or form, linear influences.

BOGOs are another outside pressure, the only difference is that they are temporary.


Sometimes there just aren't new releases people want to buy. You want to talk fallacy, it's ridiculous to claim that people should buy on weeks when there simply aren't releases they want.

You sound upset. Please don't be...
Everything marked in red is you proving yourself wrong on Point 1. Add to it people going purple from both sides; people switching sides; all the exclusive titles on both sides (yes, imagine that - they do affect the sales of the competitor!); state of economy, yada-yada.
On Point 2... static does not mean constant, but rather linear. I also said "having no trends of its own" (you decided to ignore this part). You can not apply non-linear dynamics analysis to a snapshot of the competitors sales.

We (scientists), use word "fallacy" quite frivolous (if that is what got you upset - I am really sorry ) for any theory that does not stand true in particular set of conditions. The same theory may be correct for another set of conditions. Your analysis can (and it is) used in market penetration analysis, but we are looking at something completely different here. It can also be used in analysis of exponential systems trending to infinity or to zero (like energy required to achieve speed of light; or radioactive decay).

Terjyn, I am not "pissed" at anything. On this very forum I've read numerous times "when is the next BOGO?" question and I see this as one of reasons behind the abnormally sharp sales fall for a growing userbase.