Twilight Time Discussion Thread

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by wormraper

I doubt the opposite. Streaming media is ONLY really prevalent in the U.S. and we have the WEAKEST internet backbone of the modern 1st world nations. over 30% of ALL traffic on the net is netflix alone. and look at their tiny qunatity of titles? if the whole nation went streaming it would literally collapse the entire network infrastructure in one point. that's why the ISPs are SALIVATING at putting caps on the internet. look at nations that have caps. they are the ones like Canada, Australia etc who have the LOWEST amount of people streaming. streaming is being pushed on us, and it's on a shaky bed of coals... that's just ONE reason. there's a myriad of others.

I spend a ton of time on British forums because of Doctor Who and pretty much everyone there has stopped buying discs and complains about blu ray being "pointless." I've spent a lot of time in mainland Europe on the Eastern side and everything there was pirated. I suppose you could mean Spain/France/Germany, and I have no real experience there.

In any event caps might come but along with them will come the death of net neutrality and the exception clauses for studio streaming and download services, iTunes, Steam, Xbox Live, Netflix, Amazon and all the rest. The government isn't going to let anything get away from corporate prosperity in this country, trust me, and the corporations want physical and DRM free media to die for a myriad of reasons including no production cost, no shipping, no retailer deals and customer control.

On top of all that consumers have embraced the digital model. Pandora and Netflix are the new standard, most people under 25 can't even imagine owning a disc. Steam completely took over PC gaming and soon the digital stores on PS4 and Xbox will dominate sales there too.

It's a slow revolution, make no mistake. Physical media will be around a LONG time, no one is saying otherwise. It will grow more and more niche as we go though, eventually ending up at laserdisc levels before eventually, someday, ceasing altogether.

[iank]

Sorry, but this is just nonsense. There are loads of young people buying discs all the time, I see them every day in JB. Absolute fantasy island stuff.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by iank

Sorry, but this is just nonsense. There are loads of young people buying discs all the time, I see them every day in JB. Absolute fantasy island stuff.

pretty much. I've heard the "physical media is dead" mantra since the start of DVD. it's nothing new really.

and as for people under 25 not buying films..... I go grocery shopping and hit up walmart every tuesday or wed and always see a good many people picking the shelves for titles.. If I stand in front of the new releases for 15 minutes I'll see at least half a dozen to a dozen blu-rays picked up.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by iank

Sorry, but this is just nonsense. There are loads of young people buying discs all the time, I see them every day in JB. Absolute fantasy island stuff.

The numbers don't back it up, outside of huge blockbusters. Your experience in JB with outliers doesn't really matter.

Anyone who denies where we're heading is in the fantasy land. It might take decades to get there, but there is no doubt where the train is going.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

The numbers don't back it up, outside of huge blockbusters. Your experience in JB with outliers doesn't really matter.

Anyone who denies where we're heading is in the fantasy land. It might take decades to get there, but there is no doubt where the train is going.

oi vey. I'm out...

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by wormraper

lol, really, you mean the numbers seemingly pulled out by niche studios and naysayers? I'm glad you have your crystal ball

The numbers reported by every DVD/BD site out there. If you don't want to research fine, but I read this stuff constantly. New big hit movies sell well on blu ray, everything else does not. Physical media sales overall drop every year. Downloads and streaming rise every year. This isn't rocket science.

You keep acting like people are saying it's a dead niche format today and NO ONE is saying that. We're talking about trends and where we're heading. Today Warner sees no point in trying to sell Heaven & Earth themselves, so they licensed it out for 3,000 copies to a niche studio. In ten years that might expand to a movie like Heat, and in 20 years maybe a movie like Jaws. No one knows the timetable, but we all know where the train is going.

If you think arguments like "I see people in walmart buying discs!" is going to change any of that I don't know what to tell ya.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

The numbers reported by every DVD/BD site out there. If you don't want to research fine, but I read this stuff constantly. New big hit movies sell well on blu ray, everything else does not. Physical media sales overall drop every year. Downloads and streaming rise every year. This isn't rocket science.

You keep acting like people are saying it's a dead niche format today and NO ONE is saying that. We're talking about trends and where we're heading. Today Warner sees no point in trying to sell Heaven & Earth themselves, so they licensed it out for 3,000 copies to a niche studio. In ten years that might expand to a movie like Heat, and in 20 years maybe a movie like Jaws. No one knows the timetable, but we all know where the train is going.

If you think arguments like "I see people in walmart buying discs!" is going to change any of that I don't know what to tell ya.

you also have to remember that everytime a new segment of the market opens up it pulls away from all the other. movie sales also started to drop a bit because of game sales pulling them away during the rise of video games. people only have a certain amount of time to do things and everything has it's place. that stabilized. the same thing with physical media and streaming. it certainly HAS it's place, but I SERIOUSLY doubt it will pull much more market share. especially considering the technical issues it has in it's futures. it will stabilize out, but I don't think it will even come CLOSE to what DVD has been able to do. but rather, like a scale, just hover in there taking a piece of the pie.

and don't forget that Heaven and Earth is a special case because Nick Redman knows Oliver Stone and Stone pressured Warner to give it to them.

and of course people talking on Dr. WHO forums certainly is much more "reliable" than our anecdotes

but I'm done. we've hashed and rehashed this in all the other "omg the sky is falling!" threads and we've derailed the thread long enough

[Scooter1836]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

The numbers reported by every DVD/BD site out there. If you don't want to research fine, but I read this stuff constantly. New big hit movies sell well on blu ray, everything else does not. Physical media sales overall drop every year. Downloads and streaming rise every year. This isn't rocket science.

I would like to know if the Digital sales number include digital copies that come with the physical media. That in my mind puts a huge caveat on that metric. Because it could be inflating the numbers, because then you would have to know did they purchase the set for the DC, the physical media, or both.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Scooter1836

I would like to know if the Digital sales number include digital copies that come with the physical media. That in my mind puts a huge caveat on that metric. Because it could be inflating the numbers, because then you would have to know did they purchase the set for the DC, the physical media, or both.

No. Digital sales only include standalone digital purchases. Blu-ray gets full and exclusive credit for any sales where it is packaged with other media, such as DVD and digital.

[Aclea]

Originally Posted by skyofcrack

I think what companies like TT should do for each release is do a poll (here and over social media sites) and ask if XXXX title was to be released on BD would you:

A. possibly buy it
B. put it on a list to buy later
C. definitely buy it

Run the poll for a specific amount of time (like 1 or 2 weeks) then based on the results, release XXXX number of copies. So, if only 500 respond then do a limitation of 500. If 5000 respond then raise it up to 5000. This way, you get a good idea of certain sales and most hard core fans should be aware of what's going on and participate in the polls. E-mails/text alerts can be sent out for each new poll.

This plan would mostly eliminate the problem of whether 3000 is too much or not enough.

Just an idea.

When I worked at one of the majors, there was one iron rule: whatever unreleased backcatalog got the most letters from the public begging for a release would tank. Once in a blue moon someone would run a poll or do market research, and that would usualy lead us up a blind alley as well - partially because they only tell you what someone wants to buy at the moment they answer (and consideration of whether they'll want to pay full price the week or even the month it comes out doesn't even enter into that decision). The limited edition model certtainly acts as a spur for titles that would otherwise be on the shelf forever.

[noirjunkie]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

The numbers don't back it up, outside of huge blockbusters. Your experience in JB with outliers doesn't really matter.

Anyone who denies where we're heading is in the fantasy land. It might take decades to get there, but there is no doubt where the train is going.

You heard it here first, folks. Physical media will be dead in 60-70 years. Mark your calenders.

[The Great Owl]

I keep hearing that Blu-rays are the last hurrah of physical media.

Frankly, I would not have a problem with that. I'm 42 years old, and the idea of wanting to upgrade my 700+ Blu-rays to the next format gives me shudders.

I just hope that the means to play the discs in my existing collection will continue to be available. I have this amusing vision of about 10 Blu-ray players stocked up in my closet for the next couple of decades of use, but I thankfully have not reached that point of madness yet.

As far as future physical formats are concerned, I'm inclined to think that the process of bringing our favorite movies to current Blu-ray specifications is already problematic enough. Imagine the online arguments about putting the Hitchcock collection onto 4K discs.

[Aclea]

Originally Posted by wormraper

Streaming media is ONLY really prevalent in the U.S.

As long as you ignore Europe - 24 million users in Italy and 46.9m users in Germany alone while it's a billion dollar industry in the UK (where DVD sales fell by 6.8% last year).

[atfree]

Originally Posted by The Great Owl

I keep hearing that Blu-rays are the last hurrah of physical media.

Frankly, I would not have a problem with that. I'm 42 years old, and the idea of wanting to upgrade my 700+ Blu-rays to the next format gives me shudders.

I just hope that the means to play the discs in my existing collection will continue to be available. I have this amusing vision of about 10 Blu-ray players stocked up in my closet for the next couple of decades of use, but I thankfully have not reached that point of madness yet.

As far as future physical formats are concerned, I'm inclined to think that the process of bringing our favorite movies to current Blu-ray specifications is already problematic enough. Imagine the online arguments about putting the Hitchcock collection onto 4K discs.

I'm going to become a BD Doomsday Prepper. Gonna stockpile all my BD's, a dozen BD players, several HDTV's, and a s%#&load of booze and cigars. That way, when streaming takes over and physical media disappears, I'll be fine. Oh, wait.....it may take 50 years. I'll be dead. Never mind....

[jayembee]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

Downloads and streaming rise every year.

I'd be curious how much of the streaming traffic from Netflix or Hulu is from people watching movies or TV shows on phones and tablets while they're not at home, and whether these people still stream when they are at home.

I stream from Netflix (at home; I don't have a tablet or a smartphone) but only films that I can't get on Blu-ray. Or films that are on Blu-ray, but I want to check out before buying.

[jayembee]

Originally Posted by noirjunkie

You heard it here first, folks. Physical media will be dead in 60-70 years. Mark your calenders.

I'm OK with that; I'll be long dead by then.

[popeflick]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

The numbers don't back it up, outside of huge blockbusters. Your experience in JB with outliers doesn't really matter.

Anyone who denies where we're heading is in the fantasy land. It might take decades to get there, but there is no doubt where the train is going.

"People I see in stores" is anecdotal at best.

Companies stating publicly what their best price points are is clearly much more relevant to facts on the ground.

Look at it this way in the German example: they say they averaged 2500 units over 20 titles. That means in a country of 80 million they could only sell 50000 units of Horror of Dracula with major promotions and end caps. That does not bode well, regardless of how you split hairs - and that's assuming ZERO sale from the other 19 titles. That's astonishing.

[lemonski]

Originally Posted by wormraper

I doubt the opposite. Streaming media is ONLY really prevalent in the U.S. and we have the WEAKEST internet backbone of the modern 1st world nations. over 30% of ALL traffic on the net is netflix alone. and look at their tiny qunatity of titles? if the whole nation went streaming it would literally collapse the entire network infrastructure in one point. that's why the ISPs are SALIVATING at putting caps on the internet.

This is exactly right - someone is going to have to pay for the billions of dollars of additional infrastructure required. The ISPs aren't going to be providing extra bandwidth for free just so people can stream movies, the capital cost will be recovered through data caps.

[Musicguy]

Originally Posted by wormraper

pretty much. I've heard the "physical media is dead" mantra since the start of DVD. it's nothing new really.

Do people really download older films? I doubt it. I would think most downloads are for the newly released films - download has replaced "netflix" which replaced "Blockbuster" which replaced the mom and pop video stores of the 80s - but neither of those were physical sales outlets.

Catalog will always be a niche market - just like it was on laserdisc for 18 years (Catalog VHS was mostly bought by rental stores)

DVD was a boom - but unless you have a 42" or bigger TV set you won't notice much difference between DVD and Blu-ray - so no need to upgrade - only the true collectors will upgrade and continue to support blu-ray catalog releases - there is a market out there, but it is small compared to new films

Best Buy was a physical sales outlet so were Tower Records, Virgin, Circuit City and Good Guys, but except for Best Buy the others went under (and Circuit City and Good Guys sold electronics)

Best Buy will go under too (but because of bad corporate management - where else can you buy electronics? BB should be number one)

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by noirjunkie

You heard it here first, folks. Physical media will be dead in 60-70 years. Mark your calenders.

No one knows how long it will take. It happened to PC gaming overnight. A lot will depend on a centralized program getting massive marketshare, which hasn't happened yet despite many trying to make it happen.

That's the entire point though, no one knows when but we definitely know it's a fact. No one in this thread gave a timeline, to my knowledge. I certainly didn't. With the rise of licensed catalogs, limited runs, digital exclusive time and all that nonsense though, it's certainly a lot closer now than it was 5 years ago. Whether it maintains that pace is anyone's guess.