Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[koover]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

When something new comes out the discs I already have don't stop working. I'm not at all concerned that I'll continue to be able to watch all of my Blu-rays and DVDs for the rest of my life. Worst case scenario is an individual title stops working and I have to buy a used disc from one of the thousands of other people who still has a working copy.

I agree wholeheartedly. But not everyone shares our opinion.

[DetroitSportsFan]

Originally Posted by wvuwhat

I have fast internet. And, I pay wayyyyy less for a HD code.

The only things I buy anymore are steelbooks.

Far cry from walking into Best Buy/Target/etc. every Tuesday and paying $20 for a blind buy.

If you're paying $20+ for a new mainstream release, you're doing it wrong.

[I KEEL YOU]

Originally Posted by mar3o

SSD drives are a very bad idea for archiving data. SSD drives that aren't used regularly and just put in storage fail within just a few short years. You can read about it online. I also used to think SSDs made more sense due to the lack of moving parts, but sadly from what I've been reading they degrade rapidly if just left in storage with data on it. I don't know why that is. They're not a long-term backup plan. Neither are mechanical drives really, due to bit rot. I archive some of my discs on mechanical drives but I use winrar to break them up into smaller segments for archival and create par2 backup files. That way, I can verify the file integrity at any time and repair the archive files if there is any damage over time due to bit rot. If you just store the films ready for playback, they can degrade over time due to bit rot and you'll never know it's happening until you try watching them years from now. The downside to that is the extra time and work of archiving them into winrar files, and creating the repair files, and then when you want to watch them you need to extract them. Lots of extra work but I feel far better with them stored like that than if they were just dropped as is on a drive. Any data that's valuable to you should be on multiple drives, with repair files available in case repair is necessary.

Yeah, I've read some stories about how fragile SSD memory storage is. But then I read a story like this:

http://petapixel.com/2011/06/20/phot...-in-the-ocean/

I'm not sure what to believe. But the general consensus is that SSD is more reliable. And to me it just makes more sense that SSD is reliable simply because it has no moving parts because longevity is the enemy of anything where moving parts are required for it to work because a think can only spin so many times before something goes wrong.

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by koover

After reading this post, which is good by the way, it has become even more clear to me. What the hell's the point of even collecting anything any more if its tech based? I mean this drive fails, that drive will deteriorate over time, the cloud will eat me and ALL my data and I won't be able to recoup it, the servers will crash, streaming will never work because there'll never be enough bandwidth, companies will pull titles, they have all the rights and own you, if it's not physical you don't own it.... But your disks will rot!! On and on.

No one is wrong.....it's just......read this entire thread like I have. It's Armageddon on the grandest scale. Lol. Nothing will last no matter what it is when it's tech based. Maybe it's time for us "adults" to stop worrying about storing this, backing this up, burning this, etc. and go back to basics and spend more time with our family and kids. Maybe even have the kids go out and actually play with their friends instead of sitting in front of their phones, tablets, tv or whatever. Everything goes full circle so I wouldn't doubt it if we actually see young people out and about doing things that has nothing to do with a computer, phone or tablet.....generally speaking.

For me? Continue to collect and watch my blus while not worrying about what the heck is going to happen 10 years from now when an entire new form of entertainment comes along. Most of us have upgraded from one format to the next so we should be used to this. It's just going to keep happening. If I take care of my disks, they're going to last for quite a few decades or longer. No matter what we own or back up, it will go away (figuratively speaking) and something new will replace it like it has since the beginning of time. Or it goes full circle, becomes popular again and is the new cool retro thing to "OWN"

I agree at times it can feel overwhelming, like you're fighting the odds. Nothing lasts forever, including physical discs and hard drives unfortunately. I worry a lot about herd drive failure especially since it seems I'm always reading comments online about somebody just losing a drive. I'd like to have all my stuff backed up but sadly I just can't afford to double all my drives so right now things are kind of a mess. Some stuff is backed up and some stuff isn't. I also have some older drives that are at least 6-7 years old that I know are going to be failing at some point, which means ideally you need to cycle your hard drives every 5-7 years to be safe. Who can afford that? Best you can do is buy good brands (I have some Seagate drives but they make me nervous due to their reputation- best is to buy HGST brand drives if you can find them at an affordable price - they are by far the most reliable), treat them carefully, back things up if you can afford it, and hope for the best. Same for discs - store them safely (not in sleeves) in a fairly stable environment (summer heat=bad), handle them gently, and cross your fingers.

If you think about, we're not made to last either. Life is only a temporary situation.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

Variety reports today on a rather devastating study about digital purchasing. While disc sales are falling the market isn't really switching to buying movies digitally, or even renting them. Two-thirds of consumers have never once bought or even rented a streaming film, and the same amount never even bother activating their digital copies sold with discs. Consumers just do not care much about this market.

I assumed people were renting quite a bit and we were going back to a VHS style culture where most just rent and the hardcore buy. However according to this my college students reflect the entire consumer market, where if something isn't on peoples' streaming services they don't really watch it (or they pirate it). Scary future coming down the pipe, if you ask me. Luckily this report gives hope that a disc-based niche market has a lot of support (even if most aren't buying catalog material again after DVD).

Originally Posted by GasmaskAvenger

That makes a lot of sense, to be fair.

The real truth is that those people are "If its not on Netflix and/or Hulu, its out of state and out of mind".

But hey...it makes us Physical Copy bros look like a million bucks.

For a long time it's been, "if it's not on the web, it didn't happen". So older history texts or academic research papers, for example, don't become sources for students' research if they're not on the net.

It's no surprise that if some people can't stream something easily, they don't bother to watch it. There's certainly enough media out there and no one film is so important that someone is going to be at a severe cultural disadvantage if they don't see it.

Even the disc business is a hit-driven business and most of the business is for relatively few releases. In 2015, the top 100 titles (in the U.S.) constituted 69.8% of the dollars and 54.5% of the units. So in spite of the collectors on sites like this one who are interested in complete director's works and relatively obscure films from many countries, the overwhelming majority of the business is in the big hits. If someone dared to create a new physical video store today, they could probably just stock the top 200 titles and still get 80-90% of the business they would have gotten if they had stocked 20,000 or more.

The theatrical business has become no different. All the business is in the big hit films that appeal to younger people, largely fantasy or superhero based and even they only play in theaters for a few weeks. It's almost become (pay) television.

IMO, the "scary future" is more about the decline of the theatrical business than anything else, because that will have a cascading effect to other media. As I've posted many times before, in NYC, we've lost 32% of the theaters and 18% of the screen count since 2001. The average person in the U.S. now sees only 4.14 movies theatrically per year. Although it's not a straight decline (it goes up and down each year), It was 5.49 in 2001. (And 17.16 in 1950!)

On the upside, Blu-ray is having a fairly good year. As of 8/13, Blu is up (in the U.S.) 9.81% in dollars and 5.99% in units, although that still puts it behind 2013 and 2014.

Unfortunately and again IMO, films don't have the cultural cache that they once had. I think it's an unfortunate side effect of them being so ubiquitously available. If they find a way to regain that, I think the business will do just fine.

I would not be so concerned as to whether people watch via streaming, downloading or physical media, except as it applies to the total revenue that comes back to a studio. It's the total health of the business that determines what movies get made. Right now, if it's a big budget movie, it's getting made with China in mind. Mainstream adult movies are getting such small theatrical audiences, they've become the equivalent of what art films used to be.

There is reason to be concerned about the overall health of the business. The U.S. music industry is now a third (inflation adjusted) of its former peak size, although one factor there that doesn't apply to the film industry is the fact that singles, as opposed to albums, dominate the market once again. That's not sustainable.

[Dick Deckard]

You know, you all could be watching your precious movies instead of sitting here typing on here about how worried you are you'll lose them one day.

[eiknarf]

Life is about one thing: blu-ray

[Jumpman]

Originally Posted by koover

After reading this post, which is good by the way, it has become even more clear to me. What the hell's the point of even collecting anything any more if its tech based? I mean this drive fails, that drive will deteriorate over time, the cloud will eat me and ALL my data and I won't be able to recoup it, the servers will crash, streaming will never work because there'll never be enough bandwidth, companies will pull titles, they have all the rights and own you, if it's not physical you don't own it.... But your disks will rot!! On and on.

No one is wrong.....it's just......read this entire thread like I have. It's Armageddon on the grandest scale. Lol. Nothing will last no matter what it is when it's tech based. Maybe it's time for us "adults" to stop worrying about storing this, backing this up, burning this, etc. and go back to basics and spend more time with our family and kids. Maybe even have the kids go out and actually play with their friends instead of sitting in front of their phones, tablets, tv or whatever. Everything goes full circle so I wouldn't doubt it if we actually see young people out and about doing things that has nothing to do with a computer, phone or tablet.....generally speaking.

For me? Continue to collect and watch my blus while not worrying about what the heck is going to happen 10 years from now when an entire new form of entertainment comes along. Most of us have upgraded from one format to the next so we should be used to this. It's just going to keep happening. If I take care of my disks, they're going to last for quite a few decades or longer. No matter what we own or back up, it will go away (figuratively speaking) and something new will replace it like it has since the beginning of time. Or it goes full circle, becomes popular again and is the new cool retro thing to "OWN"

Bravo...my sentiments exactly....

[Cranston37]

One thing I'm personally curious about - Blu-ray sales are up and it's very possible if trends continue that by next year digital SALES will be down.

If both of those are the case in 2017, will that change the debate in this thread?

[AKORIS]

Originally Posted by Dick Deckard

You know, you all could be watching your precious movies instead of sitting here typing on here about how worried you are you'll lose them one day.

[crazyBLUE]

Originally Posted by AKORIS

2nd that

[wvuwhat]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

I've never paid more than $10 for a Blu-ray movie and most of them have been under $5. You shouldn't assume that everyone buying physical media is paying more than those who are buying digital.

Plus if your buying digital copy codes then you are completely reliant on others buying physical media and not wanting their digital copies for you to get a deal. If physical media starts doing worse than you won't get as good of deals on digital.

I still buy those $5 blu's. But, I can remember going into the store on every Tuesday for new releases.

[ewsjr]

http://www.avclub.com/article/today-...-digita-241571
Don't know if anyone has seen this but I thought it was interesting.

[cakefactory]

Not surprising. I think the last sentences there are probably prophetic. Netflix really seems to want to be a TV channel instead of a streaming service with a large variety of content.

[Giant Machine]

Digital media is convenient. But, I love my physical media. A stream can always malfunction due to internet connectivity issues; a Blu-Ray plays as intended, and in high quality.

[Cranston37]

Originally Posted by ewsjr

http://www.avclub.com/article/today-...-digita-241571
Don't know if anyone has seen this but I thought it was interesting.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=281663

[bigshot]

The problem with buying digital movies is that the media companies have crippled them with DRM limitations and made the process of signing up and registering authorized players a nightmare. If someone is buying a movie to keep, they don't want strings attached. And they aren't going to jump through hoops to register. Netflix is simple and hassle free. That's why they are winning.

[PeterTHX]

Originally Posted by bigshot

The problem with buying digital movies is that the media companies have crippled them with DRM limitations and made the process of signing up and registering authorized players a nightmare. If someone is buying a movie to keep, they don't want strings attached. And they aren't going to jump through hoops to register. Netflix is simple and hassle free. That's why they are winning.

I'm physical all the way but signing up for something like Vudu is a snap and a large amount of devices out there support it. iTunes is much more of a pain in the tush and limited - yet plenty of people have it.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by bigshot

The problem with buying digital movies is that the media companies have crippled them with DRM limitations and made the process of signing up and registering authorized players a nightmare. If someone is buying a movie to keep, they don't want strings attached. And they aren't going to jump through hoops to register. Netflix is simple and hassle free. That's why they are winning.

Once a service like Vudu or Amazon takes over the vast majority of the market (such as Steam on PC) and their app is everywhere then more consumers might jump on. Funny enough of course this causes all the problems monopolies always do, but consumers never care about that stuff (again see Steam). However I still think this research proves the majority of consumers will just stream stuff from a subscription and maybe rent a little.

People who care about owning movies forever are going to opt for physical media for a long time to come I bet, even if we're a small niche and a ton of us are happy with DVD.

[mredman]

even people that mostly Stream is buying Blu-Rays or physical media for their favorites.