Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Some people choose to buy a Blu-ray at a different store because of exclusive extras.

usually it is more packaging (like steal book) then content, but yes that can be good for the retailer if it helps drive in business to that shop, but exclusivity is not good for the consumer.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by anthony p

usually it is more packaging (like steal book) then content, but yes that can be good for the retailer if it helps drive in business to that shop, but exclusivity is not good for the consumer.

+1,000

[biznus97]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I hope no one is insulted by the implication or being called out for it directly. It is not an insult, just like talking about the average person or J6P or other such stuff. In the end everyone is that way but on different matters, I am cheap when it comes to cars, I have a compact and I will keep it for as long as it works, I am cheap when it comes to vacation (I usually just go to friends or family and stay with them instead of an expensive out of country vacation at hotels and stuff) I am cheap when it comes to clothes (don’t care about labels, as long as there are no holes I will continue wearing it and I still wear some clothes that are over a decade), but I am not cheap oin some other aspects (I am willing to spend several thousands of dollars on films every year, you don’t want to know the cost of my HT, and when I go out for a beer with friends). Unless funds are unlimited (and they never are) people will have to be cheap on something.

But as to your point, if someone is cheap when it comes to movies why would they spend the savings on a super high speed connection just to get the cheap movies when they can have the cheap movies without that connection?



But are you the rule or the exception? You are also forgetting the obvious, with Amazon you might be buying several films, and your BW is not being used while it is being delivered.

Simple. The benefit of a standard like BD is that I can go to BB or Amazon or Walmart or Futureshop or HMV.... just to mention a few places I bought BDs from and go to the shelf and get the film I want, I don’t care where I buy what I want. The same in the digital world if it was one standard I could go on thebestDLmovieservices.com, register and watch all the films I want and if eventually I hate that place with that same device I can go to the othermovieDL.com and watch my films there. The benefit for me as a consumer is with a standard I can buy what I want from where I want and deal with who I want. Now imagine if there are exclusives I want to watch movie A I need to remember to go to Netflix since it is exclusive there, and if I want B I need to go to Cinema Now, I want C I need to go to Vudu and D is only on itunes and E is only on Amazon and F on Hulu? Can you imagine how complicated it becomes, a bunch of people are around the TV and someone says “let’s watch E, I have heard good things about it” you go on Netflix, and it is not there, then someone says “try Cinema Now”, not there, “how about Vudu, not there either, itunes, eventually you find out it is on Amazon and, just to make it more interesting, you are not a member of prime and so you need to register on there just to be able to watch it. Sure sounds like any benefit of a common standard would be lost

I was only joking about the broadband in your first point. You are absolutely right that there is only so much money to go around with so many hobbies one can get into and obligations.

To your second point, I do pay more for faster bandwidth but not for movies. I agree that a fast connection isn't the norm.

To your last point, I agree with you that streaming digital content would be a pain. We are already in that kind of pain since Amazon and Netflix don't have the exact same offerings.
I should have been clear that I was talking more about the download to own options. I can take any MP3's I buy on Amazon or other stores and import them into an android device, Apple device, etc. If Amazon has the same album as another store but their version has 2 exclusive bonus I don't have to worry about compatibility. This flexibility would be nice to have in the digital download market.
I've been tempted to buy a few things off of Amazon simply because there aren't any legal physical options available (older Anime TV). However, the fact that I might not be able to play them in my device of choice has stopped me.

[biznus97]

Anthony P,

Compared to the US, how is the rate of Blu-ray adoption going in your area?

[JavaJulien]

Originally Posted by pagemaster

Most people do care about HD and would like to have HD...but the cost of HD on a blu ray is way to high compared to HD renting on iTunes or watching HD on Netflix.

And 4K will have an even slower adoption rate. I don't think physical media will ever go away, but I don't think Blu-Ray and especially 4K will have the same threshold that DVDs had before it.

Hell, being a RA in a dormitory, I'm actually one of the few people who actively buy physical copies of movies. Most either do netflix or use other, less legal, options.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

... I just looked at the DEG report ... and they said “Adoption of Blu-ray Disc Accelerates” ...

Nice! I'm making a thread for that.

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by JavaJulien

And 4K will have an even slower adoption rate. I don't think physical media will ever go away, but I don't think Blu-Ray and especially 4K will have the same threshold that DVDs had before it.

4K won't be that big of a thing. Blu-ray will be around now and be the format for collectors or serious movie watchers for the for the future, streaming and downloading will be for those who just want to watch the film and don't about collecting. HD programming is about as good as the average person needs today. I assume there will be some people who will buy the 4K machines and there will be some early adopters, but I can't see it do all that well.

The movie studios are having a difficult time getting 4K content into cinemas, so home theatre will be even more difficult.

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I find it is an elitist point of view when people say "the average person does not care for PD/AQ".

The average person does care about PD/AQ however, there is a certain point that they care about. Most people don't care to have the best of the best tvs, blu ray players, sound systems and discs, but they do want something that has a least some quality for the price they are spending. Right now, an iTunes movie is good, it might not be the best but for a decent price, the consumer gets something decent....they can watch it on their iPod, Ipad or Apple TV if they want, at least they see the movie.

On the other hand, there is the blu ray crowd that wants to have the highest definition possible and those people are willing to pay a premium for it.

It is no different than in movie theatres, I know on a film based IMAX theatre that was playing the Dark Knight Rises in Canada, I crossed the border and traveled to see it, it cost me $19.99 for my reserved seat, sure the picture quality was second to none, but I could of went to the local multiplex and paid $7.99 to see in on 35mm film or digital, they both offer quality for a price point....it is the same on home video.

[Steedeel]

Thanks, now I know how the future will pan out, I can start saving for my hover board.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Thanks, now I know how the future will pan out, I can start saving for my hover board.

you don;t have one already?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Thanks, now I know how the future will pan out, I can start saving for my hover board.

Originally Posted by wormraper

you don;t have one already?

Lost it in some haystack somewhere.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I get what you are saying, I just looked at the DEG report and the numbers are not completely broken down and they said “Adoption of Blu-ray Disc Accelerates” which is in direct opposition of what you claim. What are your numbers where do you get them from and why do theuy lead you to the opposite conclusion then DEGs numbers led them?

2010 DEG Final report:
http://www.degonline.org/pressreleases/2011/f_Q410.pdf

Blu-Ray sales were $1.8B.

In 2011 sales (they never gave us the actual number but they gave us the percentage) were up 20% for BD YOY. 20% of $1.8B is $360M. That would put 2011 sales for BD at roughly $2.16B.
http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...r_end_2011.pdf

If sales were up 10% in 2012, that would represent approximately $216M. So it is not just a percentage slowdown but an actual slowdown in revenue growth by almost $150M.

Blu-Ray growth is definitely slowing in 2012 based on the above.

I suspect we will see similar growth in 2013, especially since most of the tent pole catalog titles have been released. I think if the studios and retailers phase out new releases as DVD only sku's it would obviously lead to big Blu-Ray growth (combo and BD only sku's) but obviously that would come with huge drops in DVD revenue.

DEG's job is to pump up home entertainment. So of course they will say things are accelerating or doing better. Marketing is marketing

Again, I don't find these numbers bad at all considering the challenges and all the options consumers have. Trying to get people to pay more for 1080p and better audio is a tough sale in a tough economy with so many other cheaper options.

[Terjyn]

Copied from the DEG thread. You are mixing rate of adoption with rate of money growth.

This is not true. If Blu-Ray spending is still up 10% in spite of prices coming down, then adoption can still be growing.

Example:

I sell 1000 Blu-Rays at 10$ per in 2010 to get 10K$.
In 2011 I sell 1500 Blu-Rays at 8$ per to get 12K$ (20% improvement)
In 2012 I sell 2200 Blu-Rays at 6$ per to get 13200$(10% improvement)

The rate of money has shrunk, but the rate of adoption has grown.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Copied from the DEG thread. You are mixing rate of adoption with rate of money growth.

This is not true. If Blu-Ray spending is still up 10% in spite of prices coming down, then adoption can still be growing.

Example:

I sell 1000 Blu-Rays at 10$ per in 2010 to get 10K$.
In 2011 I sell 1500 Blu-Rays at 8$ per to get 12K$ (20% improvement)
In 2012 I sell 2200 Blu-Rays at 6$ per to get 13200$(10% improvement)

The rate of money has shrunk, but the rate of adoption has grown.

I am not mixing anything up. The rate of adoption (20% for 2011, 10% for 2012) and revenue ($360M for 2011 and $216M for 2012) has slowed. Yes, overall the format is still growing, but the acceleration has clearly slowed.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

I am not mixing anything up. The rate of adoption (20% for 2011, 10% for 2012) and revenue ($360M for 2011 and $216M for 2012) has slowed. Yes, overall the format is still growing, but the acceleration has clearly slowed.

You don't know that.

Blu-Ray prices have come down. Unless you disagree with that statement the fact that money growth has slowed doesn't say anything about the health of Blu-Ray or the penetration of Blu-Ray vs. DVD.

It just means that Blu-Rays aren't as valuable to sell as they used to be. Which is completely obvious and not worth saying.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You don't know that.

Blu-Ray prices have come down. Unless you disagree with that statement the fact that money growth has slowed doesn't say anything about the health of Blu-Ray or the penetration of Blu-Ray vs. DVD.

It just means that Blu-Rays aren't as valuable to sell as they used to be. Which is completely obvious and not worth saying.

The entertainment industry and the studios measure growth in terms of revenue like every other company and industry. It is what we are given and how we have to measure. If the DEG published Blu-Ray numbers in terms of numbers of units sold then we would be able to measure that way, but they don't, so we can't. Otherwise we are just guessing.

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by octagon

We're seeing things that we might have missed on the DVD or VHS releases but we're not seeing anything that wasn't visible in theaters.
.

Not exactly it is a bit more complicated than that, a 35mm release print of a movie loses a lot of detail as it goes from negative, to release print, projected through a lense, and then on screen. A 35mm anamorphic scope (even worse for 1.85) print is about 4K at the source (negative) and by the time it hits a movie screen it loses a lot of information. A 4K scan of 35mm negative film will show more data at 2K 1080p as there is less data loss when shown on a 1080p display.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by biznus97

I was only joking about the broadband in your first point.

I got that it was not the meant to be serious, but part of it was the ridiculousness of someone bumping up his BW and paying 20$ ,50$ or even 100$ more a month to watch movies at better quality when he isn't ready to spend 5$ more on a title to get the BD over the DVD, and part of it was the argument in the 4k thread where someone really could not grasp that at over 100GB a film, as a collector, anything but physical media does not make sense (i.e. I don't have anywhere near some other peoples collections here, but I have already bought 20 individual BDs in a single purchase, I bought the Hitchcock collection as part of a purchase and it had 14 films in it, can you imagine having to run out at least every month to buy a 2TB drive just to be able to watch the films I want to buy?)

You are absolutely right that there is only so much money to go around with so many hobbies one can get into and obligations.

well I wanted to clear it up, I don't believe in being PC and if I ever I call anyone cheap on their decision it is more of a statement of fact (you don't want to spend the cash on it) then any attempt at belittling them or insulting them.

To your second point, I do pay more for faster bandwidth but not for movies. I agree that a fast connection isn't the norm.

I am sure many of us are in that boat (I can't imagine anyone here is using dial up or the lowest high speed package available from the ISP) but I find most people don't grasp what would really be needed so it is easy to say "hey why can't we have the best quality over the internet." to keep it simple , let's say a BD film hits a max of 40mbps (BD can go up to 48 for audio and video combined) and 40GB. If we are talking DL that film would be over 60GB of information, and that is the number that should be used for cap hit or time for DL because of the header information back and forth and if there are some lost packets that need to be resent it could be even higher. If we are talking streaming in order to have true 40mbps playback you would need to assume 80mbps again due to header info on packets and the fact that timing is critical (if a packet gets there 1/24th of a second too late, then the frame it is meant to be in would have already been displayed on screen and so it is garbage and the picture/audio suffers). And if we are talking streaming, what happens if someone is surfing the net or watching different content when you are watching your film?


I don't see it as a conspiracy for why the quality is not there but a simple fact that the infrastructure is not there and no one wants to foot the bill for the infrastructure to get there, so it will take a long time to have the necessary infrastructure. you can have a handful of people paying for 100mbps+ but that does not help Netflix or Vudu or the rest because they can't cater to an extremely small niche.

To your last point, I agree with you that streaming digital content would be a pain. We are already in that kind of pain since Amazon and Netflix don't have the exact same offerings.

yeah, but this is a normal process, very limited funds and they want cheap prices. But with exclusivity deals it would be much worst. You need to realize that physical media and digital distribution are completely different animals and treated completely differently legally. A store like Amazon, buys a bunch of BDs from a distributor or a studio and then they sell a bunch of BDs to other people, it is no different legally from some guy on this forum buying a film on BD and then selling it on e-bay or the pawn shop after he saw it. That is why someone can go to Amazon.ca, Amazon.com and the rest of the Amazons and buy movies with no issues. On the other hand a digital copy (be it rental or purchase or whatever) is different, Amazon buys one copy and then the right to make more copies of it so in that respect they are no different than a "studio". That is why, for example, you have Netflix US, Netflix Canada and Netflix UK and they all have different content because Netflix needs to have distribution rights for that specific country and they need to buy them from the studios that have the rights in those countries, so for example, in order for Netflix UK to have Gladiator they need to negotiate with Universal, and for Netflix US it would be Paramount, LOTR in Canada is Alliance, in the US it is NL... That is also why if you go to Amazon in a different country you can buy a film and tell them to send it to you where you live but if you go to an other countries Netflix it will tell you that you are not eligible (assuming you don't try and hide what country you are from) to use it.

I should have been clear that I was talking more about the download to own options. I can take any MP3's I buy on Amazon or other stores and import them into an android device, Apple device, etc. If Amazon has the same album as another store but their version has 2 exclusive bonus I don't have to worry about compatibility. This flexibility would be nice to have in the digital download market.

agree, but then wouldn't it also be nice if you don't have to pick Amazon or that other store based on what you want but where you want to buy it or happen to be?

I've been tempted to buy a few things off of Amazon simply because there aren't any legal physical options available (older Anime TV). However, the fact that I might not be able to play them in my device of choice has stopped me.

I can understand that. And why a single standard would be good, the same happened with people that picked HD-DVD. My point was simply that unlike physical media where store exclusivity is mostly immaterial, with DL you re-introduce what you wanted to fix by creating a single standard, all the services use H264, all of them use the same audio standards so what is to stop your next device manufacturer from just blocking/making it hard..... to DL from the palace that had that extra content? What if you don’t use a place for a long time and get locked out (happened to me with some sites)? What if the place with exclusive content stopped offering it? What if the place with exclusive content stopped offering Digital copies? The issue is you are thinking physical media where I bought a BD in 2006 and if in 10 years I get a new BD player that BD disk will still be there to be put in that new player so it does not matter where I bought, but with digital copies (if we are talking exclusive deals) you will need to go back to the same place to get the content for your new player.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Anthony P,

Compared to the US, how is the rate of Blu-ray adoption going in your area?

If by my area you mean Canada, unfortunately I have never seen any numbers, if I had to go with a guess I would assume because of socio-economic differences it would be as good or a bit better. (i.e. back when we had numbers for CD and DVD the adoption was a bit faster, for internet connections as well, digital music a bit lower and even though Netflix does not offer Canadian numbers their international numbers are not high enough to assume that it is as popular in Canada)

I think, going off of personal experience and that of my friends, the long cold winters means that we tend to be more willing to put a good chunk of $ into our home entertainment. Why go out when it is -30 when you can stay indoors comfortably in shorts?

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by pagemaster

The average person does care about PD/AQ however, there is a certain point that they care about. ...

agree, and that is what I said. that is why I say the reason is the most important if some Joe is saying "my SD TV is good enough and I don't need BD/4k/....... because I don't want to buy a new TV and there is no use buying films in those formats yet" the day his TV brakes and he goes out and buys a new one and now it is HD (or if it is in a few years 4k) that issue is gone. If someone goes to the store and says "I am not paying 20$ for Bond since I already have the DVD", a few days later he might say "hey look Bond is 6.99, that is a good price" and buy it.