Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[JavaJulien]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Yes, I agree that home entertainment (whether it be music, movies, games, etc) is all about options and choice. Digital makes things more convenient, and also more complicated in many ways.

I think there will always be collectors and lovers of packaged media, and as long as there is a profitable market for these people, the studios will cater to them. I use vinyl as an example since it is a small market (they sold 5 million vinyl records last year total) but it makes money and the studios are seeing growth in the market and support it.

IMHO, there are advantages to digitial music (you can buy one, two, or three songs for substantially less than buying a whole album, digitial music is much more portable than digitial movies too) that digital movies do not share. Which makes the transition from packaged movies to digital that much more difficult.




Blu-Ray sales have already leveled off in 2012. The sales growth in terms of percentage and revenue dollars has slowed, but I still see Blu-Ray as a vital cog in the wheel for home video. At some point I can see studios and retailers embracing the combo pack for new releases and simply remove the single DVD and Blu skus from the shelf (at least for the first 8 weeks where the vast majority of sales happen). This would reduce the confusion for consumers, reduce the amount of shelf space that retailers use, and allow retailers and studios to charge more and make it more of a true collector item that works on all media (digital copy/UV, BD copy, DVD copy).

I believe this will happen within the next 2-3 years. But digital will 100% need to be positioned to take on the losses that optical disc will have in the future.

Honestly, the way I see it, blu-ray has already found it's stable place in the market. Contrary to the popular stance on this site, the average consumer just doesn't see the benefit of fully upgrading to Blu-Ray since the leap wasn't as grand as the leap from VHS to DVD (yes, yes, more storage space and better audio and picture, no one has to recite all of that, I know.)

Add to that that buying stuff digital is just more convenient, that is why I am so skeptical that 4K will actually take off. Will people buy 4K sets? No doubt. Cinemaphiles are going to eat it up (and I am not saying that negatively). But at best, I expect it to be an extremely niche market just like the laser disc was. There's just too many different and cheaper options for the average consumer to be willing to drop that kind of cash.

[Anthony P]

Blu-Ray sales have already leveled off in 2012. The sales growth in terms of percentage and revenue dollars has slowed,

Not really it seems like you don’t quite understand how things work. If you have 100$ and and there is 400% growth then you go from 100$ to 500$ and you made an extra 400$ on the other hand if it is 10M with 10% return that would mean an extra 1M$ the % is lower in the later but there is a big difference in $ in its favour. The other thing is people need to be realistic with what is happening. For example, it is easy (and necessary ) to have three digit growth early on, for example http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...Year%20End.pdf BD had 400% growth in 2008 but it was small in 2007 and still relatively small in 2008 (as can be seen in that same article DVD was in 92M households). A few days ago we had last year’s DEG report, http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...NAL_1.8.13.pdf
Obviously the growth was not in 3 digits for either players in households nor SW, if there was 92M households in the US in 2008 that had DVD playback and watched movies at the end of last year there were 51M with BD playback you can’t expect next year for BD to have 100% growth (for example and get to 102M households with BD or you would either need to assume that there are a lot more households in the US or that some households, like the Amish would have all of a sudden decided to add electricity to their homes in order to watch BDs. If a given title sells over 70% on BD last year you can’t expect a similar title to do 400% growth in sales like it might have done from 2007 to 2008, you can’t expect it to have 100% growth, you can’t expect 50% growth, even 25% would be unrealistic unless studios decided to drop the old format. Once you go past 50% you can’t expect anything over 100% and the further past the 50% that you are the more unreasonable it is to expect a large growth percentage. That is a lot different than let’s say digital music where the rate of growth is low but so is the adoption or even stuff like Netflix where the rate is a bit higher (they have not given the official fourth quarter results but my guess less then 20% in US membership over last year) but it is at this point adopted by ½ as many households (at the end of Q2 it was just under 23M and the end of Q3 it was just under 24M). Let me put it this way, if we assume a constant 25% growth for Netflix streaming in the US and 26M at the end of 2012 it will be at the end of 2012 before Netflix matches BD penetration, if you assume even a 5% growth in BD penetration in 2013 much lower then what it was in 2012) then that means 76.5M households will have BD and to get to that number with 25% growth Netflix would need to be at some point in 2017

But it is funny how according to DEG “Adoption of Blu-ray Disc Accelerates” but for you that means leveled off

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Interesting points. The digital download race is like the HD format wars except nobody is winning. If they can increase quality, make it less cumbersome, and a clear standard is embraced it would help.

and everyone has access to 1Gbps+ internet as part of the cheap basic package and 1PB drives are 100$. there is obviously the political side with standards and competition, but there is a reason that high quality is not offered and that is because it can't be offered. Look at the Kalaidascape announcement, They will open up their on-line store this summer and promise BD quality DL and what is everyone’s reaction, I don't want to have to start DL a movie many hours before I can sit down and watch it, what about my cap. Sony is talking about 4k movies where an average film would be 120GB,

The only other thing I can think of is if I were a digital content distributor/maker, I would go for exclusives something similar to what Netflix is doing with creating their own content.

isn't that funny that it is the opposite of what you said in the first part with "a standard" and what would be good for Digital distribution?

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by wormraper

streaming itself has become a fad balloon that is destined to pop.

I don't think it will pop, I think it will be like digital music. Niche for ever with a few of the morons that rely on it thinking that physical media died a long time ago and everyone just uses digital services, when in reality the opposite is true.

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Yes, I agree that home entertainment (whether it be music, movies, games, etc) is all about options and choice. Digital makes things more convenient, and also more complicated in many ways.

Yes, choice is awesome. In the last week, I have watched a blu ray, a download on iTunes, a You Tube film, a dvd upconverted to 1080 and last night a Netlix movie in SD. The reason why I watched these certain films was because of access to the movie at a decent price. I was not going to pay $27 for Driving Miss Daisy on bluray when a $2 dvd of the movie will do, nor was I planning on driving and wasting gas to rent the movie In Time which I streamed on Netflix last night. My next movie is going to be the 4K restoration of From Russia With Love on blu ray.

I kind of wish there was some sort of standard, however iTunes has SD and HD and they both work for me.

Originally Posted by ack_bak

I think there will always be collectors and lovers of packaged media, and as long as there is a profitable market for these people, the studios will cater to them. I use vinyl as an example since it is a small market (they sold 5 million vinyl records last year total) but it makes money and the studios are seeing growth in the market and support it.

Yes, there will always be collectors. There were collectors of movies before home video was even invented. I personally know of two collectors, one used to collect 16mm films of old classics and he used to watch them on his own personal projector, and I know another guy who collects ebay 35mm movies....currently he has a 35mm print of Wall Street as well as a 35mm print of Thomasina and he has others. Blu ray will go the way as laserdisc in that it will be specialty owners who purchase them and older films will become harder and harder to find on disc. I can't wait for this to happen, the box sets will also become more interesting as we have already seen this with Lawrence of Arabia which is awesome.....it reminds me of the laserdisc box sets.

Originally Posted by ack_bak

IMHO, there are advantages to digitial music (you can buy one, two, or three songs for substantially less than buying a whole album, digitial music is much more portable than digitial movies too) that digital movies do not share. Which makes the transition from packaged movies to digital that much more difficult.

Yes, the advantages of digital music are that you can buy just one song for a lot less, we always could buy singles or two songs albums but now it has become much more easy. I do not agree that the transition from packaged movies to digital is more difficult, people on here forget there are two types of buyers, the average consumer who wants to just watch and also the collector, the problem is Hollywood can't get the collector to buy the digital movies, the renter is already doing it. You agree?

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

Not really it seems like you don’t quite understand how things work. If you have 100$ and and there is 400% growth then you go from 100$ to 500$ and you made an extra 400$ on the other hand if it is 10M with 10% return that would mean an extra 1M$ the % is lower in the later but there is a big difference in $ in its favour. The other thing is people need to be realistic with what is happening. For example, it is easy (and necessary ) to have three digit growth early on, for example http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...Year%20End.pdf BD had 400% growth in 2008 but it was small in 2007 and still relatively small in 2008 (as can be seen in that same article DVD was in 92M households). A few days ago we had last year’s DEG report, http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...NAL_1.8.13.pdf
Obviously the growth was not in 3 digits for either players in households nor SW, if there was 92M households in the US in 2008 that had DVD playback and watched movies at the end of last year there were 51M with BD playback you can’t expect next year for BD to have 100% growth (for example and get to 102M households with BD or you would either need to assume that there are a lot more households in the US or that some households, like the Amish would have all of a sudden decided to add electricity to their homes in order to watch BDs. If a given title sells over 70% on BD last year you can’t expect a similar title to do 400% growth in sales like it might have done from 2007 to 2008, you can’t expect it to have 100% growth, you can’t expect 50% growth, even 25% would be unrealistic unless studios decided to drop the old format. Once you go past 50% you can’t expect anything over 100% and the further past the 50% that you are the more unreasonable it is to expect a large growth percentage. That is a lot different than let’s say digital music where the rate of growth is low but so is the adoption or even stuff like Netflix where the rate is a bit higher (they have not given the official fourth quarter results but my guess less then 20% in US membership over last year) but it is at this point adopted by ½ as many households (at the end of Q2 it was just under 23M and the end of Q3 it was just under 24M). Let me put it this way, if we assume a constant 25% growth for Netflix streaming in the US and 26M at the end of 2012 it will be at the end of 2012 before Netflix matches BD penetration, if you assume even a 5% growth in BD penetration in 2013 much lower then what it was in 2012) then that means 76.5M households will have BD and to get to that number with 25% growth Netflix would need to be at some point in 2017

But it is funny how according to DEG “Adoption of Blu-ray Disc Accelerates” but for you that means leveled off

Right, I get that but it is not just the growth percentage that was down, it was the overall revenue increase. Example, if Blu-Ray revenue grew from 1B to 1.5B from 2010 to 2011 ($500 million in growth) and then grew from $1.5B to $1.8B from 2011 to 2012 ($300 million in growth), it is true that while the format still grew, the rate of growth (both in terms of percentage and overall revenue) has slowed. That is what we saw in 2012. Growth percentage was under half what it was the previous year (from 20% + to just under 10%) and overall revenue growth was lower.

I think you are starting to hit saturation points with people who care about HD vs SD and are willing to pay more, or swap out their older DVD's for better PQ/AQ. I am no poo pooing BD at all, I think the format is doing just fine considering the economy and the fact that people can get the same movie much cheaper, or other forms of entertainment even cheaper (streaming, VOD, Redbox, etc). But at some point you will hit saturation for people who care about better PQ/AQ. I think retailers and studios phasing out DVD in favor of combo packs would have to happen to see strong growth again going forward.

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Blu-Ray sales have already leveled off in 2012. The sales growth in terms of percentage and revenue dollars has slowed, but I still see Blu-Ray as a vital cog in the wheel for home video. At some point I can see studios and retailers embracing the combo pack for new releases and simply remove the single DVD and Blu skus from the shelf (at least for the first 8 weeks where the vast majority of sales happen).

Yes, blu ray has leveled off and I do see studios removing the dvd in the pack as well.

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

I think you are starting to hit saturation points with people who care about HD vs SD

Most people do care about HD and would like to have HD...but the cost of HD on a blu ray is way to high compared to HD renting on iTunes or watching HD on Netflix.

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by pagemaster

Most people do care about HD and would like to have HD...but the cost of HD on a blu ray is way to high compared to HD renting on iTunes or watching HD on Netflix.

Of course the cost is going to be different as I'm sure you're well aware. Purchasing a blu-ray gives you unlimited viewings whereas renting gives you only a 24-48 hour viewing window, usually. You don't really expect the costs for each to be close to one another do you?

In fact, I don't think the cost of blu-ray is too high at all.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by JavaJulien

Contrary to the popular stance on this site, the average consumer just doesn't see the benefit of fully upgrading to Blu-Ray

Add to that that buying stuff digital is just more convenient...

I find statements like this hilarious.

There are 51M households in the US with BD at the end of last year, now according to the US census in 2010 there were 117.5 M households http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/12s0061.xls now I don't know how many households there were in 2012 but an exact number is not needed, since let's face it, some households might not have electricity, others might not believe in TV, others might not watch movies... so they won't be consumers of movies. And like I pointed out in my previous post at the end of 2008 according to DEG there were 92M households with DVD players and according to that US census report there were 116.8M actual households in the US in 2008. Wouldn’t that mean that not only it is wrong to assume the average consumer does not care for the benefits of BD but that the average consumer has already upgraded to BD? The average consumer should be mid way.

On the other hand if the average consumer did care more for the "convenience" of streaming and cheap then wouldn't the average consumer be on Netflix which only has ~25M users 1/4 of the way to average consumer?

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by pagemaster

Most people do care about HD and would like to have HD...but the cost of HD on a blu ray is way to high compared to HD renting on iTunes or watching HD on Netflix.

ummmmmmmmm, that's called market spread. same thing with DVD. some people want to buy, and some people want to rent. it's that simple

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

Of course the cost is going to be different as I'm sure you're well aware. Purchasing a blu-ray gives you unlimited viewings whereas renting gives you only a 24-48 hour viewing window, usually. You don't really expect the costs for each to be close to one another do you?

In fact, I don't think the cost of blu-ray is too high at all.

Unlimited viewings is not a selling point to the average consumer anymore. How long have people been renting VHS, DVDs, Laserdiscs, and blu rays? For almost 30 years. There is a market for both renting and ownership and they don't overlap as great as some seem to think.

The average person watches a movie once.

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by wormraper

it's that simple

It is actually more complicated than that.

[biznus97]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

and everyone has access to 1Gbps+ internet as part of the cheap basic package and 1PB drives are 100$. there is obviously the political side with standards and competition, but there is a reason that high quality is not offered and that is because it can't be offered. Look at the Kalaidascape announcement, They will open up their on-line store this summer and promise BD quality DL and what is everyone’s reaction, I don't want to have to start DL a movie many hours before I can sit down and watch it, what about my cap. Sony is talking about 4k movies where an average film would be 120GB,

Well you and a couple others keep saying and/or implying that people who buy DVDs instead of Blu-rays are cheap so maybe the money they save can go to a faster broadband package . Also, I have thought about the download times as well. In my case, if it came in around two days that would be about what Prime offers me since I do a lot of my shopping at various Amazon sites.

Originally Posted by Anthony P

that funny that it is the opposite of what you said in the first part with "a standard" and what would be good for Digital distribution?

I don't understand what you are saying as it isn't the opposite of what I said. A standard such as DVD or Blu-ray would be a nice thing to have instead of the 4 or 5 different companies (iTunes, Amazon, UV, etc.) offering various types of digital download files and software to manage them. Similar to how lots of places offer MP3 downloads instead of a bunch of proprietary audio formats like they used to. Exclusive content is just that... content.

Anyways, since this conversation seems to have gone away from the original topic there isn't much reason to continue...

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Well you and a couple others keep saying and/or implying that people who buy DVDs instead of Blu-rays are cheap so maybe the money they save can go to a faster broadband package . Also, I have thought about the download times as well. In my case, if it came in around two days that would be about what Prime offers me since I do a lot of my shopping at various Amazon sites.




I don't understand what you are saying as it isn't the opposite of what I said. A standard such as DVD or Blu-ray would be a nice thing to have instead of the 4 or 5 different companies (iTunes, Amazon, UV, etc.) offering various types of digital download files and software to manage them. Similar to how lots of places offer MP3 downloads instead of a bunch of proprietary audio formats like they used to. Exclusive content is just that... content.

Anyways, since this conversation seems to have gone away from the original topic there isn't much reason to continue...

what I bolded is a MAJOR reason that most people I know are really put off by streaming. exclusivity and no standard.

[biznus97]

Originally Posted by wormraper

what I bolded is a MAJOR reason that most people I know are really put off by streaming. exclusivity and no standard.

Yup. But exclusive content is something that could help any format depending on timing. Some people choose to buy a Blu-ray at a different store because of exclusive extras. Once Blu-ray numbers increase in the home it would also be a good way to get some of the stragglers to switch formats. Exclusive Blu-ray only TV seasons, movies, etc. Right now though number of DVD players vs BD players in the home would make that a very risky gamble. So instead certain TV shows and movies are limited to DVD release .

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Right, I get that but it is not just the growth percentage that was down, it was the overall revenue increase. Example, if Blu-Ray revenue grew from 1B to 1.5B from 2010 to 2011 ($500 million in growth) and then grew from $1.5B to $1.8B from 2011 to 2012 ($300 million in growth), it is true that while the format still grew, the rate of growth (both in terms of percentage and overall revenue) has slowed. That is what we saw in 2012. Growth percentage was under half what it was the previous year (from 20% + to just under 10%) and overall revenue growth was lower.

I get what you are saying, I just looked at the DEG report and the numbers are not completely broken down and they said “Adoption of Blu-ray Disc Accelerates” which is in direct opposition of what you claim. What are your numbers where do you get them from and why do theuy lead you to the opposite conclusion then DEGs numbers led them?

I think you are starting to hit saturation points with people who care about HD vs SD and are willing to pay more, or swap out their older DVD's for better PQ/AQ. I am no poo pooing BD at all, I think the format is doing just fine considering the economy and the fact that people can get the same movie much cheaper, or other forms of entertainment even cheaper (streaming, VOD, Redbox, etc). But at some point you will hit saturation for people who care about better PQ/AQ. I think retailers and studios phasing out DVD in favor of combo packs would have to happen to see strong growth again going forward.

I don't think we are there yet (people that don't like quality vs people that do) or the rate of growth would not be so high. But I also don't get your point, yes renting a BD from Redbox is much cheaper than buying the film on BD but how would that show that the person does not care about the A/V of the film? There have always been renters and buyers (as long as both existed) and there will always be renters and buyers. It can happen that a renter could care about quality and a buyer might not the two are not exclusive. Now granted for the most part buyers will usually tend to care more, but it is not a given, my BIL is a renter, but he only rents BDs at the local rental place, many years ago (before BD launched) I had a co-worker and we would regularly go to buy movies at lunch time, he would exclusively look in the garbadge bin since he did not care for anything other than they were cheaper.

I also think people don't grasp the simple reality, everyone "cares". It is just a matter of priorities. I might not be willing to spend the cash on a fancy sports car but that does not mean that I can't appreciate one. I find it is an elitist point of view when people say "the average person does not care for PD/AQ". Maybe, like pagemaster, when the BD is 6.99 he will buy it because 6.99 is a reasonable amount of $ for a film for him he will pick the 3$ DVD over the 23$ BD because the studio is asking too much for the BD. he is prioritising the $ (and there is nothing wrong with that). Or like in that other thread where someone said his 16 year old does not care about quality and would rather watch the digital copy on his Mac and later posted about the kid messing up the audio watching films on the TV with his friends while they were away, in that case priority was not AV it was not cash but who he was with (I don't want to see the film with my parents so laptop in bedroom wins, I do want to watch the film with my friends so TV in the LR wins). I think the distinction is important since putting it your way almost makes it seem like there are many people out there that can’t appreciate the benefits while talking about valuing other things more or being ignorant (not knowing the benefits since they did not experience them) shows that it is not cut and dry (i.e. when BD players were 1000$ it makes sense for most people to say “I don’t care to spend that kind of money on a movie player” but as the price dropped the price of a BD player was less of an issue. So knowing why people choose A over B is important.

[Cevolution]

Originally Posted by pagemaster

Most people do care about HD and would like to have HD...but the cost of HD on a blu ray is way to high compared to HD renting on iTunes or watching HD on Netflix.

The U.S is just one country, that's not the case worldwide. Here in Australia there aren't many companies you can rent from via streaming, and the ones we do have are much smaller in comparision to Netflix and other services available there in the U.S, and don't have any where near the amount of content on offer either. Also here such services are expensive, they charge us about $6-$8 for each film we watch in HD. What's the point in that, it's just wasted money, especially when you can buy hundreds of blu-rays for roughly the same price here (between $8-$12) which are also better quality, that if you buy you own and can watch as many times as you like. It's not an attractive option to pay for streaming here and never will be while prices remain as high as they are. Those sorts of practices is exactly why physical media and blu-ray will thrive for many years to come, especially in countries that are in similar situations to Australia.

[biznus97]

Originally Posted by anthony p

i also think people don't grasp the simple reality, everyone "cares". It is just a matter of priorities. I might not be willing to spend the cash on a fancy sports car but that does not mean that i can't appreciate one. I find it is an elitist point of view when people say "the average person does not care for pd/aq". Maybe, like pagemaster, when the bd is 6.99 he will buy it because 6.99 is a reasonable amount of $ for a film for him he will pick the 3$ dvd over the 23$ bd because the studio is asking too much for the bd. He is prioritising the $ (and there is nothing wrong with that). Or like in that other thread where someone said his 16 year old does not care about quality and would rather watch the digital copy on his mac and later posted about the kid messing up the audio watching films on the tv with his friends while they were away, in that case priority was not av it was not cash but who he was with (i don't want to see the film with my parents so laptop in bedroom wins, i do want to watch the film with my friends so tv in the lr wins). I think the distinction is important since putting it your way almost makes it seem like there are many people out there that can’t appreciate the benefits while talking about valuing other things more or being ignorant (not knowing the benefits since they did not experience them) shows that it is not cut and dry (i.e. When bd players were 1000$ it makes sense for most people to say “i don’t care to spend that kind of money on a movie player” but as the price dropped the price of a bd player was less of an issue. So knowing why people choose a over b is important.

+1

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Well you and a couple others keep saying and/or implying that people who buy DVDs instead of Blu-rays are cheap so maybe the money they save can go to a faster broadband package

I hope no one is insulted by the implication or being called out for it directly. It is not an insult, just like talking about the average person or J6P or other such stuff. In the end everyone is that way but on different matters, I am cheap when it comes to cars, I have a compact and I will keep it for as long as it works, I am cheap when it comes to vacation (I usually just go to friends or family and stay with them instead of an expensive out of country vacation at hotels and stuff) I am cheap when it comes to clothes (don’t care about labels, as long as there are no holes I will continue wearing it and I still wear some clothes that are over a decade), but I am not cheap oin some other aspects (I am willing to spend several thousands of dollars on films every year, you don’t want to know the cost of my HT, and when I go out for a beer with friends). Unless funds are unlimited (and they never are) people will have to be cheap on something.

But as to your point, if someone is cheap when it comes to movies why would they spend the savings on a super high speed connection just to get the cheap movies when they can have the cheap movies without that connection?

Also, I have thought about the download times as well. In my case, if it came in around two days that would be about what Prime offers me since I do a lot of my shopping at various Amazon sites

But are you the rule or the exception? You are also forgetting the obvious, with Amazon you might be buying several films, and your BW is not being used while it is being delivered.

I don't understand what you are saying as it isn't the opposite of what I said. A standard such as DVD or Blu-ray would be a nice thing to have instead of the 4 or 5 different companies (iTunes, Amazon, UV, etc.) offering various types of digital download files and software to manage them. Similar to how lots of places offer MP3 downloads instead of a bunch of proprietary audio formats like they used to. Exclusive content is just that... content.

Simple. The benefit of a standard like BD is that I can go to BB or Amazon or Walmart or Futureshop or HMV.... just to mention a few places I bought BDs from and go to the shelf and get the film I want, I don’t care where I buy what I want. The same in the digital world if it was one standard I could go on thebestDLmovieservices.com, register and watch all the films I want and if eventually I hate that place with that same device I can go to the othermovieDL.com and watch my films there. The benefit for me as a consumer is with a standard I can buy what I want from where I want and deal with who I want. Now imagine if there are exclusives I want to watch movie A I need to remember to go to Netflix since it is exclusive there, and if I want B I need to go to Cinema Now, I want C I need to go to Vudu and D is only on itunes and E is only on Amazon and F on Hulu? Can you imagine how complicated it becomes, a bunch of people are around the TV and someone says “let’s watch Z, I have heard good things about it” you go on Netflix, and it is not there, then someone says “try Cinema Now”, not there, “how about Vudu, not there either, itunes, eventually you go on the internet google it and find out Z is exclusive to some other site that you have not registered with.