Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Batmon77]

Originally Posted by Kirsty_Mc

Consider that nail well and truly hit on the head.

How can a 2008 (predicting 2012)article even weigh in this discussion in 2014.

[AgentOrange]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

No, but the facts are the facts. I'd say the opposite is true: there are people on this forum so enamored of Blu-ray (which is to be expected on a forum dedicated to the topic) that they refuse to acknowledge the actual state of the business.

Whether or not you love Blu-ray is completely independent of how commercialy successful it is. I love my BDs and I want to see the format be successful, but as a business executive and analyst, I can see that it's grown too slowly and is in danger of becoming a niche format, like laserdisc was. And there's no doubt, regardless of the inferior quality, that streaming is going to have an ever-growing negative impact on BD sales. Even today, and even though I'm a BD fan, if I think I'm only going to want to see a movie once, I stream it unless the BD is under $10 and sometimes even then.

As for 4K, it's being pushed more by the hardware manufacturers than the studios. The hardware manufacturers are trying to start a new buying/replacement cycle for TVs and associated equipment with higher prices and margins, since Sony and Panasonic, among others, have lost their shirts in the TV business, largely thanks to Samsung's relatively inexpensive sets. Sony even threatened to get out of the TV business entirely.

The TV manufacturers thought that 3D would accomplish the goal of starting a cycle of TV replacements, but after some initial excitement, it became a great big yawn. At this year's CES, 3D was barely mentioned, even though almost all the TVs still incorporate it.

Sony sells (or sometimes gives away) a 4K media player with 4K movies on it, but aside from that, no major studio has committed to releasing 4K movies in a physical format, even if a new standard is developed.

What has to be realized is that for at least the next five years, a 4K physical media format would sell even less than Blu-ray does today and that's not enough of a market for any of the big players to be very interested in, especially if there are extra costs involved. Sure, it will sell to the people who have more money than they know what to do with - the kind who buy apartments for $3 million and up, but not to the masses. And the big manufacturers and the big studios are only interested in products that can sell to the masses.

While I'd say blu-ray has probably "peaked" (or getting very close) - it's peak was undoubtedly higher than Laserdisc - in terms of marketplace acceptance - and it will go on for more years as well to get closer to filling out the catalogue.

I do think 4K format is in danger of being somewhat "niche", but hardly to the extent you are describing ("the kind who buy apartments for $3 million and up). That's just stupid, given that 4K televisions are already coming down to reasonable "mainstream" levels, and disc replication costs will always be very low. Likewise studios are already producing 4K content natively and have been for awhile, so the cost to transfer them will not be that high. 4K media will just be another outlet, in addition to Netflix 4K and anywhere else that supports the higher resolution. The only question is how much catalogue will ever be available, some of it is already "ready to go" to a native 4K format. But clearly, this will be a much smaller slice of the pie than it has been on previous formats.

I can see a world where new releases are mostly all stocked at the big box stores in 4K, the OCCASIONAL AAA catalogue title hits 4K at retail, and most of the old catalogue that actually gets a 4K master (which will only be a small slice), is left for special order..

[HeavyHitter]

The transition to 4K is inevitable. Displays at 55"+ or larger will all be 4K in several years similar to how 720p displays at that size all became 1080p.

On the 4K content side, it will take longer but eventually happen.

And 4K Blu-ray is coming and the specs are being finalized. You will see it likely launched next year.

So much for packaged media being dead.

[Kirsty_Mc]

Originally Posted by Batmon77

How can a 2008 (predicting 2012)article even weigh in this discussion in 2014.

Read the quote!!!

Anyway, people bleat on that Blu-Rays performance as a format has fallen short of what DVD achieved. DVD however was launched in the '90s and from my recollection well after a recession when the western economies were booming. Just look what Blu-Ray was launched into... The deepest and longest recession since the '30s. By anybody's standard it has done exceptionally well given the economic climate.

[AgentOrange]

Originally Posted by Petra_Kalbrain

What's also funny is that "prices for Blu-ray movies and players are still so high" comment. Really? Players can be had for $50 - $70 these days and there are thousands of discs available for under $10. And, nowadays, all of the "swapping extensive DVD collections for their Blu-ray equivalents" would actually fall into the "under $10" category anyways since "extensive DVD collections" are made up of DVDs which were released many years ago, which are now mostly catalog titles which hit low prices relatively quickly.

So, that's more sensationalism at work. Anyone who has an "extensive DVD collection" has been in this game long enough to have spent more on most of their DVDs then they would on their Blu-ray equivalents. Pssshhhh...

Exactly, that's just insanity. Blu-Ray has practically achieved price parity with DVD. Anybody that walks into a store and buys a DVD-player or standalone DVD disc, when the blu-ray is right there next to it, is an idiot (to put it mildly).

DVD should only have value for stuff that has not, or will not reach the 1080p format. There is still a very large catalogue advantage for DVD, so of course those discs still have some value where no blu-ray yet exists. But other than perhaps the case of blu-rays "missing special features", there should never be a reason to go backwards...

[HeavyHitter]

Originally Posted by Kirsty_Mc

Read the quote!!!

Anyway, people bleat on that Blu-Rays performance as a format has fallen short of what DVD achieved. DVD however was launched in the '90s and from my recollection well after a recession when the western economies were booming. Just look what Blu-Ray was launched into... The deepest and longest recession since the '30s. By anybody's standard it has done exceptionally well given the economic climate.

Not to mention it survived a format war with HD DVD which turned off a lot of people for a long time. I really think if HD DVD was never launched Blu-ray would have been even more successful than it's been. It would have been before the economic crash too.

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

No...your statement implies that 50% of all people buy Blu-ray. If that were the case, BD would be the most successful media of all time.

Not even 50% of physical media buyers buy Blu. Blu-ray has a 21.9% physical unit share and a 32.5% US $ share, year to date. Blu-ray is only 1.6% ahead of last year in dollars and 5.84% ahead of last year in units.

And Sony has done so poorly with Blu-ray that they're using it as an excuse with Wall Street as to poor earnings.

You can't compare the total unit share of all Blu-rays and compare it to the total unit share of all DVDs and infer that more people buy DVD.

The DVD total unit share is skewed for the following reasons. First, DVD had a 10 year head start and second, a lot of releases are only released on DVD rather than Blu-ray (not a consumer choice). With the latter, people have one of two choices: 1) pick up the release on DVD or 2) forgo such a release until it's release on Blu-ray. Most people will pick up the release rather than forgo such a release.

What can be compared is the total unit share of a specific Blu-ray release to the specific DVD release of the same title.

[KRW1]

On the subject of ITunes, and 'the way music has gone', I can honestly say it hasn't affected me one jot. Never used it, never will.

I buy two or three albums a week (This week, Pixies, Mountain Goats, Savages 12" and The Fall on Vinyl and Yeezus on CD for them interested) and will continue to do so. I see myself buying bluray until the day I die. I will never pay for a download. For some reason, the market favours people like myself and keeps on releasing discs I want. No Bad Boys 2, but a massive Herzog box set out in July. That says something. I'm not sure what, but I like it.

Just to expand on this point a little, the reason people experience trouble selling blurays is generally they're trying to shift mainstream titles that are literally everywhere and cost pennies. I reckon I could still shift my Artificial Eye DVDs without any trouble

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

Sony is getting ready to post a Y25 Billion impairment charge due to decreased demand of physical discs due to the increase in streaming media. Looks like the shift is happening now.

http://variety.com/2014/biz/news/son...es-1201169099/

Two days and about, what? 14 pages later.

Yo slick, or any accountant/tax preparers out there reading, believe it or not, some of us here have rather extensive stock portfolios, so, how ‘bout posting some more helpful information like reminding folks how much (in terms of total dollars) can a married couple deduct on next year’s taxes with realized capital losses resulting from selling some of our Sony stock this month?

And if we incur capital losses beyond that dollar limit, for how many years can we then carry those losses forward to reduce capital gains?

Some shareholders may wants to know…..rather than reading recklessly extrapolative speculations from tech bloggers regarding its applicability to the broader viability and longevity of the Blu-ray format in general.

[KRW1]

Here's another thing about pundits. A lot of them seem unable to see beyond tablets because they're the thing of the moment. It's extremely odd.

Before the Xbone and PS4 were released, I read no end of articles predicting doom for them because 'everyone has moved to mobile gaming'. Then they both came out and sold in their millions.

This week I read another article, saying the same thing, but this time 'you can discount the first five million sales because they're the hard core fans' and the thing that really counts is how the sales build now and 'everyone is going to mobile gaming'. It's daft. Lets see what those pundits say at the end of the year when Call of Duty with Kevin Spacey gets released and it'll be 'gaming is the new cinema' again, just like last time. Anyone who believes these articles is naïve.

[nukuEX2]

Disney's Frozen.

[pentatonic]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

You can't compare the total unit share of all Blu-rays and compare it to the total unit share of all DVDs and infer that more people buy DVD.

The DVD total unit share is skewed for the following reasons. First, DVD had a 10 year head start and second, a lot of releases are only released on DVD rather than Blu-ray (not a consumer choice). With the latter, people have one of two choices: 1) pick up the release on DVD or 2) forgo such a release until it's release on Blu-ray. Most people will pick up the release rather than forgo such a release.

What can be compared is the total unit share of a specific Blu-ray release to the specific DVD release of the same title.

Actually, yes, you have to. Whether the explanations you give are right or not, it is the reality, you can't wish better penetration on discs that don't exist, whatever that reason may be.

And niche is just about right. People not buying are not morons and idiots like some here would like to pretend, they just don't care, they love their DVDs and they're also good for the business, no losers here. But in 2014 when everybody has an HD panel, they just don't care, trust me, the salesperson who sold that set tried very very hard to sell a BDP. Again, they don't care.

But what is going to happen very soon is they won't go Blu, they will go digital, easy as heck, and even if quality is, well streaming, read above paragraph, they don't care and HD streaming is still often a bit better than DVDs. So if BD is 21%, that's just about where it will peak before it starts losing yet more to possibly 4K streaming. Sony was clear I think, they won't weather another less than perfect and planned launch. Soon they will be out of anything not UHD, on this they own the chain and make money, they know they can't compete on consumer products anymore, the consumers opted for the cheaper Korean brands, and soon they will do the same for Taiwanese brands.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by nukuEX2

Disney's Frozen.

exactly this and many other huge titles as well:

Huge titles like Hunger Games catching fire sold an impressive 3.9 million units in its first week of release. Then there was Incredibly strong sales for Game of Thrones S3 and Thor 2 this year as well. Then there is the juggernaut Frozen it sells like hot cake Breaking all kind of records. In its first day it sold 3.2 million units. A freaking kids movie selling 3.2 million in a day. Keep in mind these sales are only for US sales. Then add the sales in foreign countries to. Physical Media incl Blu Ray is stronger than ever. And these juggernaut numbers for these popular titles proves that and all of them sold more units in blu ray than DVD in their first week of their release dates. These are just 4 titles then there is Walking Dead,Man of Steel, Iron Man 3 and many more blockbusters that sell huge om Blu Ray and DVD


Just wait for Cap 2 to come out i bet everyone want to own that movie on blu ray.

[KRW1]

Originally Posted by pentatonic

But what is going to happen very soon is they won't go Blu, they will go digital, easy as heck, and even if quality is, well streaming, read above paragraph, they don't care and HD streaming is still often a bit better than DVDs. So if BD is 21%, that's just about where it will peak before it starts losing yet more to possibly 4K streaming. Sony was clear I think, they won't weather another less than perfect and planned launch. Soon they will be out of anything not UHD, on this they own the chain and make money, they know they can't compete on consumer products anymore, the consumers opted for the cheaper Korean brands, and soon they will do the same for Taiwanese brands.

I don't know what this is based on, but I've been reading a variation on it for about the last five years. Most people will go to both. I know people only now just discovering bluray and they've had Netflix and streaming for a while. They still want to buy the odd disc, perhaps a few a year, like Gravity, Frozen and so on but that market isn't going to go away until they stop releasing blockbusters. They've been nurturing it and supplying it for the last 25 years or so, it's deeply ingrained.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by mredman

Then there is the juggernaut Frozen it sells like hot cake Breaking all kind of records. In its first day it sold 3.2 million units. A freaking kids movie selling 3.2 million in a day. Keep in mind these sales are only for US sales. Then add the sales in foreign countries to. Physical Media incl Blu Ray is stronger than ever.

Physical media is far from dead - in fact, it's very healthy - but stronger than ever? I dunno...

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2003/FNEMO.php

VHS Sales (Week of November 4-10, 2003): 3.5 million

DVD Sales (Week of November 4-10, 2003): 13.5 million

VHS Sales (Single day, November 4, 2003): 1.6 million

DVD Sales (Single day, November 4, 2003): 6.4 million

The following year Shrek 2 moved 11M DVDs and 1.1M VHS in three days.

Physical media is alive and well but it doesn't put up those kinds of numbers anymore. Units are down, revenues are down.

I don't see how a reasonable observer can dispute that.

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by pentatonic

Actually, yes, you have to. Whether the explanations you give are right or not, it is the reality, you can't wish better penetration on discs that don't exist, whatever that reason may be.

And niche is just about right. People not buying are not morons and idiots like some here would like to pretend, they just don't care, they love their DVDs and they're also good for the business, no losers here. But in 2014 when everybody has an HD panel, they just don't care, trust me, the salesperson who sold that set tried very very hard to sell a BDP. Again, they don't care.

But what is going to happen very soon is they won't go Blu, they will go digital, easy as heck, and even if quality is, well streaming, read above paragraph, they don't care and HD streaming is still often a bit better than DVDs. So if BD is 21%, that's just about where it will peak before it starts losing yet more to possibly 4K streaming. Sony was clear I think, they won't weather another less than perfect and planned launch. Soon they will be out of anything not UHD, on this they own the chain and make money, they know they can't compete on consumer products anymore, the consumers opted for the cheaper Korean brands, and soon they will do the same for Taiwanese brands.

I'm not disputing that more total units of DVDs are sold compared to Blu-ray discs. What I'm saying is at face value you can't say that since the total number of units of DVDs sold, during a specific period of time, is greater than the total units of Blu-rays then more people must prefer DVD over Blu-ray and more people purchased DVDs.

That could be the case but we need to know what was sold during that period and if any of those titles were only released in a single format. The number of units sold for any particular release that was released on only one format skew the results; that goes both ways. How do we know the number of people purchasing DVD is greater than those purchasing Blu-ray?

For example, for the week ending 22 Mar 2014 the reported sales numbers for Blu-ray and DVD where 5.21M and 11.43M units, respectively. Is it plausible that 2M people could have purchased a Blu-ray disc during that week and only 1.9M people purchased DVDs? Sure it could, although I doubt those where the numbers. Given DVDs lower price point it's also feasible that any single person picked up more DVDs compared to the number of Blu-rays on any given week. Then again how many of those DVDs didn't have an equivalent Blu-ray release?

Over 10x the number of titles have been released on DVD compared to Blu-ray disc releases. For most people, if a Blu-ray release does not exist they'll just pick up the DVD version. Can you say in that instance that those people prefer DVD over Blu-ray? I don't think so. If 90% of the releases don't have an equivalent Blu-ray release do you think most people will forgo 90% of the content currently available to them?

What you can do is look at the sales trends for titles that were released simultaneously on both formats.

[CHEЯNOБLY!]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

I'm not disputing that more total units of DVDs are sold compared to Blu-ray discs. What I'm saying is at face value you can't say that since the total number of units of DVDs sold, during a specific period of time, is greater than the total units of Blu-rays then more people must prefer DVD over Blu-ray and more people purchased DVDs.

That could be the case but we need to know what was sold during that period and if any of those titles were only released in a single format. The number of units sold for any particular release that was released on only one format skew the results; that goes both ways. How do we know the number of people purchasing DVD is greater than those purchasing Blu-ray?

For example, for the week ending 22 Mar 2014 the reported sales numbers for Blu-ray and DVD where 5.21M and 11.43M units, respectively. Is it plausible that 2M people could have purchased a Blu-ray disc during that week and only 1.9M people purchased DVDs? Sure it could, although I doubt those where the numbers. Given DVDs lower price point it's also feasible that any single person picked up more DVDs compared to the number of Blu-rays on any given week. Then again how many of those DVDs didn't have an equivalent Blu-ray release?

Over 10x the number of titles have been released on DVD compared to Blu-ray disc releases. For most people, if a Blu-ray release does not exist they'll just pick up the DVD version. Can you say in that instance that those people prefer DVD over Blu-ray? I don't think so. If 90% of the releases don't have an equivalent Blu-ray release do you think most people will forgo 90% of the content currently available to them?

What you can do is look at the sales trends for titles that were released simultaneously on both formats.

Many releases are dual format now. Even though I could care less about DVDs, more than half of my purchases included a DVD this year.

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by CHEЯNOБLY!

Many releases are dual format now. Even though I could care less about DVDs, more than half of my purchases included a DVD this year.

That's a good point. Where do dual format releases fall under; that is those that include both a BD and DVD in the same package?

Anyway, as an example, here's what Lionsgate's 2014 release schedule looks like so far:

Jan: 20 releases (7 dual format, 1 BD only, 12 DVD only)
Feb: 21 releases (5 dual format, 1 BD only, 14 DVD only)
Mar: 21 releases (7 dual format, 14 DVD only)
Apr: 19 releases (6 dual format, 13 DVD only)
May: 14 releases (4 dual format, 10 DVD only)
Jun: 8 releases (4 dual format, 4 DVD only)
Jul: 8 releases (0 dual format, 8 DVD only)

[Scarface32]

I'm having trouble figuring out what this thread is all about? The title makes absolutely no sense. From the first few posts I read, it's about HD DVD, which died off years ago. Seems to me like just closing this thread and creating a new one with whatever the topic is. Because it isn't very clear.

[Blu Titan]

The title of this thread is most appropriate. Just last a couple of weeks ago we had a similar/similars Chicken Little threads about A24 Films not releasing Enemy and Under The Skin. Lots of gloom and doom all over the place. A few days later we now have official US Blu-ray announcements for both titles.

If we ever do have a doom situation ...I'll know about it and I will be the first to tell you guys. Here's the link to that Chicken Little thread, now with the thread title edited. Just read the first couple of dozens pages.


https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=240506

I'll tell you guys something else...that info about Sony's loses in the EU has been grossly misinterpreted by all kinds of Internet blogs. Similar to the FUD of years past.