Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Blu-ray has to do $85.34 million per week in the 9 weeks from 11/1 to the end of the year in order to match last year. That's not going to happen. So for the first time, Blu-ray will be below previous year. The last time BD beat previous year was August 23rd and that was only a $32.53 million week for BD.

If BD fans bought the same amount of product they purchased last year and then there were additional consumers new to the format this year, BD would be growing. But that's not the case. So even fans of the format must be buying less. That's certainly not inconceivable if they've already purchased all the catalog product that they've wanted to own.

It also doesn't help that it's been a pretty bad year for movies in general. If I'm not mistaken, it's been stated that this has been the worst year at the box office since 1997.

That will, of course, likely carry over to home media sales of those same movies in all formats. And this will unfortunately effect Blu-Ray sales since big newly released blockbuster movies tend to be what sells the most units on the format.

But those are factors that you can't really blame on the format or interest in it on it's own merrits.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Next year is packed with blockbusters so maybe it will better this years total?

It's probably a safe bet IMO that next year will be better than this year.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

It has a 31% revenue share, but a 21% unit share of the physical media market. As compared with last year, it's down 2.73% in revenue and 0.31% in units (through 10/25)

And as for the other poster's comment that last year, Blu-ray share increased as we got into the holiday season, it did, but only slightly. At this time last year, it had a 29.3% revenue share of physical media and a 19.5% unit share. At the end of the year, it wound up at a 30.4% revenue share and a 19.9% unit share. With only 9 weeks left in the year, it's hard to up the shares by very much.

Blu-ray shares historically have gone up around 5 percent on average in Q4 in the last three years. That's more than slightly.

Year-->Q1-3 share-->Q4 share--> total year-end share

2011: 21.0% --> 27.0% --> 23.2%

2012: 24.8$ --> 30.1% --> 26.7%

2013: 29.0% --> 33.1% --> 30.5%

2014: 30.9% --> TBD


I did fail to account for the latest figures having a few weeks of Q4 (so I'll revise my estimate for a year-end share to be between 32-33 percent), but my point stands that Q4 shares go up quite a bit over Q1-3.

Blu-ray has to do $85.34 million per week in the 9 weeks from 11/1 to the end of the year in order to match last year. That's not going to happen. So for the first time, Blu-ray will be below previous year. The last time BD beat previous year was August 23rd and that was only a $32.53 million week for BD.

It probably won't happen, but I think it's too soon to call it as if it were a done deal. Last year those 9 weeks averaged $80 million, so we're only talking a 6 percent improvement during those weeks, hardly impossible. Last year the big 3 weeks (BF and the 2 weeks before Christmas) improved by over 10 percent over the those same weeks in 2012. And of course the biggest weeks have the most effect, so you never really know.

[I KEEL YOU]

Blu ray is dying. Literally. Read about it here:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=249210



This is becoming a serious problem and the number of titles prone to bronzing is growing. First there it was thought that only a handful of early Criterion titles that were pressed in a particular factory had this problem. Then some more Criterions were added. Then Well Go USA titles started to bronze. And now, multiple early titles from a major studio (Paramount) have been confirmed as bronzers, along with at least one Universal title.

There is still at the very least a year until the release of the new format. Plenty of time for a lot of new bronzing titles to surface. I thought blu rays were supposed to last hundreds of years, but in fact it looks like they are less durable than an early CD made in the 80s.

Should the industry remove the name "blu ray" from the 4K format, even though it will use the same technology in order to distance themselves from this bronzing scandal if it continues to grow? And it almost certainly will, it's just a question of how much.

[Wendell R. Breland]

CD's do not have layers like DVD and Blu-ray. The most likely cause of oxidation on the metal layer is contamination. This happened to Pioneer on several LaserVision titles and became known as "laser rot".

[mredman]

I keel you act like it happens all the time in fact i have not come across any issues with Blu Ray yet and the oldest is from 2006. Just take care of them and nothing happens to them

I have com upon that issue with one DVD though Superman 2 the movie. But thats also about it

[jscoggins]

Originally Posted by mredman

Just take care of them and nothing happens to them

I'm sorry, that's incorrect.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by jscoggins

I'm sorry, that's incorrect.

Well, I have over 700 and I haven't come across this. Is it Region A specific?

[Tok]

Sounds like a replicator issue. Probably a cheaper outfit that laid off the QA department.

I don't think it's time to run into the streets screaming the sky is falling just yet. We are still looking at a small subset of titles.

I had early dual layered DVDs that failed also.

[I KEEL YOU]

First of all, there are single layered Well Go USA blu rays that have systematic bronzing issues. I've checked.

Secondly, I don't remember DVD having as many systematic (not talking about lone faulty discs here and there) bronzing issues as the one that is currently unfolding for blu ray. I know there was one particular one related to DVD: Warner DVDs (as well as HD-DVDs) made around 2005-2006 or so. I also know there was a bronzing issue for Laser Discs, but I am not familiar with the extent. It couldn't have been a huge issue because LDs were owned by so few people.

What happens between now and by the time 4K blus are released in terms of disc rot will definitely have an influence on how well the new format will be received.

[jscoggins]

Originally Posted by I KEEL YOU

First of all, there are single layered Well Go USA blu rays that have systematic bronzing issues. I've checked.

Secondly, I don't remember DVD having as many systematic (not talking about lone faulty discs here and there) bronzing issues as the one that is currently unfolding for blu ray. I know there was one particular one related to DVD: Warner DVDs (as well as HD-DVDs) made around 2005-2006 or so. I also know there was a bronzing issue for Laser Discs, but I am not familiar with the extent. It couldn't have been a huge issue because LDs were owned by so few people.

What happens between now and by the time 4K blus are released in terms of disc rot will definitely have an influence on how well the new format will be received.

I tend to agree with this. I once had much more DVDs than the largest that my BD collection ever got, and I did not experience whole clusters of DVDs suffering from rotting/bronzing/peeling.

These discs aren't just being pressed at only one plant, either.

[Tok]

Where's the evidence of whole clusters? I've seen a few examples here and there. Nothing earth shattering yet.

[jscoggins]

Originally Posted by Tok

Where's the evidence of whole clusters? I've seen a few examples here and there. Nothing earth shattering yet.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=249210

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by I KEEL YOU

First of all, there are single layered Well Go USA blu rays that have systematic bronzing issues. I've checked.

Secondly, I don't remember DVD having as many systematic (not talking about lone faulty discs here and there) bronzing issues as the one that is currently unfolding for blu ray. I know there was one particular one related to DVD: Warner DVDs (as well as HD-DVDs) made around 2005-2006 or so. I also know there was a bronzing issue for Laser Discs, but I am not familiar with the extent. It couldn't have been a huge issue because LDs were owned by so few people.

What happens between now and by the time 4K blus are released in terms of disc rot will definitely have an influence on how well the new format will be received.

I have something like 170 BDs including 19 Criterions and I have not a single problem. There are obviously some problems with some Criterions. Criterion seems to be addressing the issue.

But this is not the massive problem you make it out to be and I would bet that the average consumer is completely unaware.

Blu-ray is a niche format and Criterion is a niche publisher. 4K Blu-ray will be a niche of that. 4K Blu-ray may have a lot of problems being accepted since regular Blu-ray hasn't actually done all that well, but bronzing of BD discs is not going to be one of them.

Back in the vinyl days, we were plagued with crappy LP pressings and now all the hipsters want is vinyl. And in spite of vinyl still having ticks and pops, they still think it sounds better than CD (and even though at least 75% of vinyl is mastered from a digital master). So these few manufacturing problems on some discs from two small publishers are not going to kill the format or industry.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

I have something like 170 BDs including 19 Criterions and I have not a single problem. There are obviously some problems with some Criterions. Criterion seems to be addressing the issue.

But this is not the massive problem you make it out to be and I would bet that the average consumer is completely unaware.

Blu-ray is a niche format and Criterion is a niche publisher. 4K Blu-ray will be a niche of that. 4K Blu-ray may have a lot of problems being accepted since regular Blu-ray hasn't actually done all that well, but bronzing of BD discs is not going to be one of them.

Back in the vinyl days, we were plagued with crappy LP pressings and now all the hipsters want is vinyl. And in spite of vinyl still having ticks and pops, they still think it sounds better than CD (and even though at least 75% of vinyl is mastered from a digital master). So these few manufacturing problems on some discs from two small publishers are not going to kill the format or industry.

Pretty big niche. If Digital HD doesn't reach bluray numbers I hope you will refer to that as niche also?

[I KEEL YOU]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

I have something like 170 BDs including 19 Criterions and I have not a single problem. There are obviously some problems with some Criterions. Criterion seems to be addressing the issue.

But this is not the massive problem you make it out to be and I would bet that the average consumer is completely unaware.

Blu-ray is a niche format and Criterion is a niche publisher. 4K Blu-ray will be a niche of that. 4K Blu-ray may have a lot of problems being accepted since regular Blu-ray hasn't actually done all that well, but bronzing of BD discs is not going to be one of them.

Back in the vinyl days, we were plagued with crappy LP pressings and now all the hipsters want is vinyl. And in spite of vinyl still having ticks and pops, they still think it sounds better than CD (and even though at least 75% of vinyl is mastered from a digital master). So these few manufacturing problems on some discs from two small publishers are not going to kill the format or industry.

Well, I have over 200 BDs and even more Criterions and haven't found a single bronzer fortunately. But that's not the point. I started buying blu rays in 2010 and the Criterions in question were made in 2008. It is possible that 2015 will be a year where many titles from 2009 will start to bronze. Not to mention even more from 2008 and before.

And haven't you read that thread. Criterion is NOT the only publisher with these issues. Is Paramount a niche publisher?

If we've seen the last bronzing issue on the blu ray format, then I guess it wouldn't affect the sales of 4K. But it isn't. I truly wish it were.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

I have something like 170 BDs including 19 Criterions and I have not a single problem. There are obviously some problems with some Criterions. Criterion seems to be addressing the issue.

But this is not the massive problem you make it out to be and I would bet that the average consumer is completely unaware.

Blu-ray is a niche format and Criterion is a niche publisher. 4K Blu-ray will be a niche of that. 4K Blu-ray may have a lot of problems being accepted since regular Blu-ray hasn't actually done all that well, but bronzing of BD discs is not going to be one of them.

Back in the vinyl days, we were plagued with crappy LP pressings and now all the hipsters want is vinyl. And in spite of vinyl still having ticks and pops, they still think it sounds better than CD (and even though at least 75% of vinyl is mastered from a digital master). So these few manufacturing problems on some discs from two small publishers are not going to kill the format or industry.

So you are actually calling Blu Ray not doing to well when it generates over billion of dollars in sales a year ALONE in the states. Are you for real here

Blu Ray is doing more than fine. A product that does numbers that big is doing more then just fine and you know it..

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Pretty big niche. If Digital HD doesn't reach bluray numbers I hope you will refer to that as niche also?

Unfortunately it looks like Digital HD will reach Blu-ray numbers as soon as next year. Just this last quarter Digital HD was $347 million (per DEG) while Blu-ray did about $390 million (aggregated weekly data from HMM).

As I said, it's mainly because of the two week window favoring Digital HD. As evidence that it's working, the DEG Report stated that new release digital sales are up 70 percent in Q3 and 88 percent for the year. That's compared to overall Digital HD up 26 percent in Q3 and 33 percent for the year. So nearly all the growth is coming from new release.

BTW, I don't consider Blu-ray a niche format just because it's not the top selling format. Many new releases sell well over 50% Blu-ray and some of those well over a million copies. Kinda hard to call that niche. But if overall sales were under, say 10 percent, then yeah I'd agree it's niche.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

I have something like 170 BDs including 19 Criterions and I have not a single problem. There are obviously some problems with some Criterions. Criterion seems to be addressing the issue.

But this is not the massive problem you make it out to be and I would bet that the average consumer is completely unaware.

Blu-ray is a niche format and Criterion is a niche publisher. 4K Blu-ray will be a niche of that. 4K Blu-ray may have a lot of problems being accepted since regular Blu-ray hasn't actually done all that well, but bronzing of BD discs is not going to be one of them.

Back in the vinyl days, we were plagued with crappy LP pressings and now all the hipsters want is vinyl. And in spite of vinyl still having ticks and pops, they still think it sounds better than CD (and even though at least 75% of vinyl is mastered from a digital master). So these few manufacturing problems on some discs from two small publishers are not going to kill the format or industry.

it may not be the end of the world, but it's MUCH more serious than a small handful of discs... MULTIPLE pressing plants are showing this problem and much of the issues are JUST being found out years down the road... there are untold amounts of titles that are most likely affected and most likely MUCH more to come as time goes on because I guarantee you those pressing plants didn't just print a handful of titles in the course of a few years and only for one or two studios.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Unfortunately it looks like Digital HD will reach Blu-ray numbers as soon as next year. Just this last quarter Digital HD was $347 million (per DEG) while Blu-ray did about $390 million (aggregated weekly data from HMM).

As I said, it's mainly because of the two week window favoring Digital HD. As evidence that it's working, the DEG Report stated that new release digital sales are up 70 percent in Q3 and 88 percent for the year. That's compared to overall Digital HD up 26 percent in Q3 and 33 percent for the year. So nearly all the growth is coming from new release.

BTW, I don't consider Blu-ray a niche format just because it's not the top selling format. Many new releases sell well over 50% Blu-ray and some of those well over a million copies. Kinda hard to call that niche. But if overall sales were under, say 10 percent, then yeah I'd agree it's niche.

where are you seeing these numbers
Also Blu Ray ALWAYS sells huge on Black Friday and Christmas weeks. Where digital HD is FLAT. So again Blu Ray will make a lot more money there and push its sales numbers higher these weeks.

http://homemediamagazine.com/researc...-flat-q3-34526

Blu-ray Discs and DVDs remain the industry’s proverbial cash cow.

according to the report above digital is minor compared to physical including Blu Ray yet again.

[Steedeel]

Well disc sales are down again for week ended 1/11. That's seven weeks in a row isn't it? Disappointing news.