Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[darkness2918]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

Even for those who aren't interested in UHD it not doing well is bad for all physical media. Many people on this forum have commented that they prefer physical media to digital but will buy digital HD over DVD. The same will likely apply to digital 4K and regular Blu-ray in the future. Therefore if UHD Blu-ray fails it may push more people to digital because physical can't match the quality.

I guess I'm in the minority cause ill take a physical DVD or digital HD.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by darkness2918

I guess I'm in the minority cause ill take a physical DVD or digital HD.

So will I, my primary reason for supporting physical media can never be matched by digital (physical copies can be played and redistributed long after studios have dropped all support). But a large number of Blu-ray supporters do so because of the quality, UHD Blu-ray has to be successful to keep those customers buying physical instead of digital.

[veritas]

As far as the digital market lasting I always wondered how much does it cost vudu whenever I play a movie in hdx?

They are selling disc to digital movies for a dollar but they then have a commitment to let you stream that movie for years into the future so I am kind of curious how many times I can play a movie before vudu would be at a loss. I mean I get this removes the second hand market but that commitment sounds way more expensive then the one time costs of disc manufacturing.

[HD Goofnut]

Originally Posted by veritas

As far as the digital market lasting I always wondered how much does it cost vudu whenever I play a movie in hdx?

They are selling disc to digital movies for a dollar but they then have a commitment to let you stream that movie for years into the future so I am kind of curious how many times I can play a movie before vudu would be at a loss. I mean I get this removes the second hand market but that commitment sounds way more expensive then the one time costs of disc manufacturing.

One of the reasons I started backing up my collection digitally on my own hard drives. You never know when VUDU or any other digital site will go belly up or decide to pull titles.

[Strapped4Cash]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

Even for those who aren't interested in UHD it not doing well is bad for all physical media. Many people on this forum have commented that they prefer physical media to digital but will buy digital HD over DVD. The same will likely apply to digital 4K and regular Blu-ray in the future. Therefore if UHD Blu-ray fails it may push more people to digital because physical can't match the quality.

You're probably right about those who place "quality" first, though I worry that UHD succeeding will cause even more declines in the availability of DVD's, which will cause those buyers (those strictly DVD or primarily so) to slash their buying, stop buying anything, or switch to digital if they do. We're told that DVD is still around 70% of sales, will those people transition to UHD in a way that most of them haven't for Blu-ray? I'd guess that some would, but my fear is that UHD succeeds but the overall physical market contracts by 40%, 50% or more.

The buyer for one company that occasionally gets posted in the "Movie and TV Deals" section has said that his customers still buy more VHS over Blu-ray, but primarily DVD, no matter how hard he tries on the Blu's. That's anecdotal, but I think illustrates that there's a very different mindset out there that's not well-represented on this Forum.

I think that either way, unfortunately, physical media continues to lose customers, but is it better to lose them at the "high" end or the "low" end? I'd guess that most here would be fine, maybe even happy, to wave goodbye to the latter, but what would be the real effect of that?

[recS-12]

Originally Posted by Strapped4Cash

You're probably right about those who place "quality" first, though I worry that UHD succeeding will cause even more declines in the availability of DVD's, which will cause those buyers (those strictly DVD or primarily so) to slash their buying, stop buying anything, or switch to digital if they do. We're told that DVD is still around 70% of sales, will those people transition to UHD in a way that most of them haven't for Blu-ray? I'd guess that some would, but my fear is that UHD succeeds but the overall physical market contracts by 40%, 50% or more.

The buyer for one company that occasionally gets posted in the "Movie and TV Deals" section has said that his customers still buy more VHS over Blu-ray, but primarily DVD, no matter how hard he tries on the Blu's. That's anecdotal, but I think illustrates that there's a very different mindset out there that's not well-represented on this Forum.

I think that either way, unfortunately, physical media continues to lose customers, but is it better to lose them at the "high" end or the "low" end? I'd guess that most here would be fine, maybe even happy, to wave goodbye to the latter, but what would be the real effect of that?

Right now as it stands DVD and Blu-Ray are still proving that there is a profit to be made along side the growing streaming market. There could come a time where the margin is so slim studios give up on the weaker/weakest format. Look at how long laser discs hung around during the DVD boom. UHD is the format that is questionable being the new kid on the block and still without major studio support behind it. (Disney and Sony's decision not to include a disc player in the ps4 upgrades) However, as many people are upset ps4 pro won't include the disk playback they were wanting, I'd be way more concerned if a major player like Sony wasn't supporting stand alone players for the future. I love this thread cuz we hear everyone's .02 on the subject but the users of these forums aren't what drive sales in this country. It's average Joe consumer. And he has made it pretty clear he's still very content with buying DvD's at Walmart for the majority of his physical format purchasing. I think at this rate, DVD and BD can survive alongside streaming. I do not believe DVD, BD, AND UHD can all 3 survive alongside streaming at this rate. Not in a way that insures the survival over the long term. There, I've shared my .02. Gonna go grab some breakfast. Oh, and to share how I spend my hard earned $$$.
DVD *ONLY* if it still isn't available on BD
BD *all* purchases
Digital*only* if it's a title I will watch during my time away from my 1080p display. At a hotel room or on my iPad when I'm kicked off my tv's while my sons are home
UHD- not interested as the $$ of upgrading is not justified in the quality of upgrade between BD and UHD

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Strapped4Cash

You're probably right about those who place "quality" first, though I worry that UHD succeeding will cause even more declines in the availability of DVD's, which will cause those buyers (those strictly DVD or primarily so) to slash their buying, stop buying anything, or switch to digital if they do. We're told that DVD is still around 70% of sales, will those people transition to UHD in a way that most of them haven't for Blu-ray? I'd guess that some would, but my fear is that UHD succeeds but the overall physical market contracts by 40%, 50% or more.

The buyer for one company that occasionally gets posted in the "Movie and TV Deals" section has said that his customers still buy more VHS over Blu-ray, but primarily DVD, no matter how hard he tries on the Blu's. That's anecdotal, but I think illustrates that there's a very different mindset out there that's not well-represented on this Forum.

I think that either way, unfortunately, physical media continues to lose customers, but is it better to lose them at the "high" end or the "low" end? I'd guess that most here would be fine, maybe even happy, to wave goodbye to the latter, but what would be the real effect of that?

I don't see UHD's success and DVD's decline as connected. If anything UHD will cut into Blu-ray's market, not DVD's. But for the foreseeable future some people will want DVD, some people will want Blu-ray, and some people will want UHD Blu-ray. To keep the maximum amount of people buying physical media all 3 should continue to be available.

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by Cranston37

That doesn't make sense when the comparable XBox One S model can play 4K UHD discs and is $50 CHEAPER

Good point. I forgot about the Xbox One S. Who knows why companies make the decisions they do? IMO Sony made a mistake if XBOX One can do it. As others have pointed out, Sony including full UHD support would have given a boost to UHD sales by getting UHD capability into hands that otherwise wouldn't have UHD players for some time. That would have helped boost UHD discs sales and UHD TV sales.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by I KEEL YOU

You're delusional if you think that this isn't a huge blow.

Heh. I mean if you think UHD can someday be the next DVD then yes, this is a "huge blow." I have absolutely zero confidence that has any chance of ever happening, so I am saying I don't think it matters much. As in, they could include that drive, charge an extra $50-100, and UHD will still be a super niche format 5 years from now, when dedicated players drop to $100 anyway.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

Heh. I mean if you think UHD can someday be the next DVD then yes, this is a "huge blow." I have absolutely zero confidence that has any chance of ever happening, so I am saying I don't think it matters much. As in, they could include that drive, charge an extra $50-100, and UHD will still be a super niche format 5 years from now, when dedicated players drop to $100 anyway.

It would probably be niche either way but that doesn't mean there wasn't a meaningful impact. I don't think anyone expects UHD to be the next DVD, but a bit more popularity could be the difference between the studios only bothering to release the biggest blockbusters on UHD and studios releasing a modest selection of smaller movies and catalog titles on UHD as well.

Even if most of them only buy a few movies a year putting a UHD player in a few million more homes could make a significant difference.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

It would probably be niche either way but that doesn't mean there wasn't a meaningful impact. I don't think anyone expects UHD to be the next DVD, but a bit more popularity could be the difference between the studios only bothering to release the biggest blockbusters on UHD and studios releasing a modest selection of smaller movies and catalog titles on UHD as well.

Even if most of them only buy a few movies a year putting a UHD player in a few million more homes could make a significant difference.

I'm not saying it wouldn't have had an impact, I guess I'm not clarifying well here. When I say "I don't think it matters much" my point is the impact wouldn't have been too big. "Matters much" means it would have mattered, but I doubt it would have had a big impact. Maybe a thousand or so extra people looking at UHDs for brand new releases.

People upgrading BDs to UHDs for catalog titles will be the big test. They barely did that for DVD to BD, so call me skeptical.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

I'm not saying it wouldn't have had an impact, I guess I'm not clarifying well here. When I say "I don't think it matters much" my point is the impact wouldn't have been too big. "Matters much" means it would have mattered, but I doubt it would have had a big impact. Maybe a thousand or so extra people looking at UHDs for brand new releases.

I expect a few million Playstation 4 Pros to be sold. The nature of the system means the vast majority of the buyers will care about picture quality. Most of them probably won't be big movie collectors but there is a high chance that when they do buy a movie it would have been a UHD Blu-ray if they already had a capable player. That therefore translates into a few million more UHDs being sold, not a thousand. Not enough to make UHD the next DVD (or even the next Blu-ray) but it could be enough to make studios put most of their new releases on UHD rather than just the blockbusters.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

I expect a few million Playstation 4 Pros to be sold. The nature of the system means the vast majority of the buyers will care about picture quality. Most of them probably won't be big movie collectors but there is a high chance that when they do buy a movie it would have been a UHD Blu-ray if they already had a capable player. That therefore translates into a few million more UHDs being sold, not a thousand.

Well I just completely disagree with your numbers and hypothesis. No way that level of interest would be generated, no way that percentage would care about it.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

Well I just completely disagree with your numbers and hypothesis. No way that level of interest would be generated, no way that percentage would care about it.

Over 40 million Playstation 4s have been sold, but only about a thousand Playstation 4 Pros will be sold? Only 0.0025% of PS4 buyers are interested in the PS4 Pro? That sounds ridiculously low.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

Over 40 million Playstation 4s have been sold, but only about a thousand Playstation 4 Pros will be sold? Only 0.0025% of PS4 buyers are interested in the PS4 Pro? That sounds ridiculously low.

It wasn't your PS4 Pros sold number I was referring to. No way a million people try out UHD because of that machine, whether it sells a few million units or even twenty million units. No way.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

It wasn't your PS4 Pros sold number I was referring to. No way a million people try out UHD because of that machine, whether it sells a few million units or even twenty million units. No way.

I don't see why not. Many people tried out Blu-ray because of PS3. Most of those people didn't buy many movies but a million people buying 1 UHD Blu-ray each is still an additional million UHD movies sold.

I'm not saying those people would switch to UHD for most of their movie purchases, but for a new release the price difference between a Blu-ray and a UHD Blu-ray is often less than $5. It absolutely sounds likely that millions of people would be willing to pay that extra $5 for one or two movies per year if no other purchases were required.

[StingingVelvet]

I mean, fair enough. We just disagree. There would definitely be some who once they have a UHD player almost by accident would try it out, or might as well upgrade, but I don't think it would be anywhere near the numbers you're talking about. Neither of us can really prove our hunches, so it is what it is.

[DaBargainHunta]

You're both right.

A Sony system having the latest video disc technology is absolutely influential. My first DVD player was a PS2. My first Blu-ray player was a PS3 (and my second was a PS4). The PS4 Pro could have easily done the same for UHD Blu-ray.

With that said, it's a dwindling market. There's no way the PS4 Pro would have the same impact the PS2 likely had on DVDs and the PS3 had on Blu-rays. It would have helped, yes, but that ship is slowly sailing away.

[flyry]

Originally Posted by GasmaskAvenger

Alrighty then. Hopefully there's some good Black Friday deals on the standalone players (as i've been hoping for the past few months).

BB had a deal last week where the UHD player was $199 (50% off) if you buy a TV with it

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by flyry

BB had a deal last week where the UHD player was $199 (50% off) if you buy a TV with it

On eBay the UBD-K8500 frequently goes for under $220 without having to buy a TV.

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from...rt=nc&LH_BIN=1