Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by ElvisForever

You keep quoting DVD sales as if that was the only media that ever existed.

This is a common problem with a lot of posts on this site on this topic. The DVD boom was a unique thing that turned every average Joe into a movie collector for a while there. That's not normal, it was a crazy outlier effect. Retreating from that back to a more normal collector versus casual renter situation is not that odd, it's reverting back to the norm.

That's why I keep telling Bates Motel in threads like thus that his "10% down every year!" figures are not the same as death. We're going back to the days where most people rented VHS (only now it will be streaming) and enthusiasts purchased tapes or laserdiscs (only now it will be DVDs, BDs and UHDs).

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

This is a common problem with a lot of posts on this site on this topic. The DVD boom was a unique thing that turned every average Joe into a movie collector for a while there. That's not normal, it was a crazy outlier effect. Retreating from that back to a more normal collector versus casual renter situation is not that odd, it's reverting back to the norm.

That's why I keep telling Bates Motel in threads like thus that his "10% down every year!" figures are not the same as death. We're going back to the days where most people rented VHS (only now it will be streaming) and enthusiasts purchased tapes or laserdiscs (only now it will be DVDs, BDs and UHDs).

With both VHS and DVD renters and buyers were both spending money on the same product. Nothing was available to rent but unavailable to buy. Even if 99% of customers were only interested in renting a particular title that wouldn't prevent it from being available for purchase. Plus physical rentals were mainly profitable for the rental stores, not the studios. The studios therefore made buyers a priority.

But digital is a distinctly different market. If all the renters switch to digital then all the titles that get the majority of their income from renters won't be available physically.

I don't believe physical media as a whole is dying, but certain types of titles are.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

With both VHS and DVD renters and buyers were both spending money on the same product. Nothing was available to rent but unavailable to buy. Even if 99% of customers were only interested in renting a particular title that wouldn't prevent it from being available for purchase. Plus physical rentals were mainly profitable for the rental stores, not the studios. The studios therefore made buyers a priority.

But digital is a distinctly different market. If all the renters switch to digital then all the titles that get the majority of their income from renters won't be available physically.

I don't believe physical media as a whole is dying, but certain types of titles are.

Well yeah, I said that myself before. There will be digital exclusives. Low budget films, box office bombs, tons of TV shows. Absolutely.

[Rich1631]

Anybody who actually thinks that UHD bluray will succeed and that discs will be around in 10 years is crazy. Look at PC gaming...its 99% digital only. Physical Media's death is coming, all the signs are there.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

Well yeah, I said that myself before. There will be digital exclusives. Low budget films, box office bombs, tons of TV shows. Absolutely.

That's what I'm concerned about. DVD may have been an anomaly in terms of sales numbers but it was the absolute best thing to happen for collectors: suddenly everything was available physically and the used market ensured every title remained available forever.

But the rise of digital is undoing all the good that DVD accomplished. Digital puts all the control back in the hands of the studios just like with broadcasts and theaters. Every title is only available directly from the studios and they can take it away at any time.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Rich1631

Anybody who actually thinks that UHD bluray will succeed and that discs will be around in 10 years is crazy. Look at PC gaming...its 99% digital only. Physical Media's death is coming, all the signs are there.

Just look at console gaming... almost everything sells better on disc.

[Rich1631]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

Just look at console gaming... almost everything sells better on disc.

That is because console is 100% closed loop. Only way to get the game is thru Microsoft or Sony directly. And because of that no competition which means high prices which means low sales. Movies function more like PC gaming where there is numerous distribution outlets which means there is more competition. Your talking Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, Vudu, ITunes, etc. and that is just right now. If Xbox live and PSN had more competitive pricing like Steam, physical media on consoles would have died years ago. You won't ever see sales like Steam on XBL or PSN.

[Rich1631]

I'm 100% for physical media. But its inevitable the switch to streaming and digital. It's just the future.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Rich1631

That is because console is 100% closed loop. Only way to get the game is thru Microsoft or Sony directly. And because of that no competition which means high prices which means low sales. Movies function more like PC gaming where there is numerous distribution outlets which means there is more competition. Your talking Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, Vudu, ITunes, etc. and that is just right now. If Xbox live and PSN had more competitive pricing like Steam, physical media on consoles would have died years ago. You won't ever see sales like Steam on XBL or PSN.

Regardless of how many digital stores exist all distribution is still controlled by the publisher. When Activision lost the rights to James Bond all of the James Bond games disappeared from every digital store. But I can still buy a used copy of 007 Blood Stone from hundreds of different retailers... Activision has no control over any of the physical copies they've already sold.

Originally Posted by Rich1631

I'm 100% for physical media. But its inevitable the switch to streaming and digital. It's just the future.

The huge backlash against Microsoft's original plan for Xbox One proves that there is still a great demand for physical media.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by Rich1631

Anybody who actually thinks that UHD bluray will succeed and that discs will be around in 10 years is crazy. Look at PC gaming...its 99% digital only. Physical Media's death is coming, all the signs are there.

Not the same things though. I went digital only on the PC extremely quickly, but that was because the experience is the same (it's the same files) and I wasn't worried about DRM at all since PC games are kept alive by the community all the time. With movies it is different. Blu-rays look and sound much better than streams, and there will always be people who care about that. Also while the DRM is obviously easy to remove that doesn't mean full BD quality files will always be easy to find, so again the experience could suffer. Also PC gaming is much more a niche techie thing than movie buying, which has a more diverse audience.

The only way I would go full digital for movies was if they offered full BD quality downloads with no DRM and hard-drives were cheap enough to back them all up, thousands of movies. I don't see that happening any time soon.

I remember people saying CDs would be dead in no time almost 20 years ago when Napster was taking off. Well they're still around, and big releases like Adele's last album still sell amazingly well on CD. Movies will be on discs for a LONG time to come.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by Rich1631

Anybody who actually thinks that UHD bluray will succeed and that discs will be around in 10 years is crazy. Look at PC gaming...its 99% digital only. Physical Media's death is coming, all the signs are there.

Wow aint you the ignorant one
Is that why Blu-Ray and physical sales generate billions of dollars yearly around the Globe

Face it even streamers and digital people want to own their most favorites on physical media like Blu-Ray. And there will always be collectors. Physical stuff that people want to hold in their hand to actually feel like they got something for their hard earned money will never go away. And there will always be people that would never pay for "smoke" and comparing gaming with movies. That is just ridiculous its not even in the same ballpark to want to own like Blu-Ray and other physical stuff is.

[Rich1631]

Originally Posted by mredman

Wow aint you the ignorant one
Is that why Blu-Ray and physical sales generate billions of dollars yearly around the Globe

Face it even streamers and digital people want to own their most favorites on physical media like Blu-Ray. And there will always be collectors. Physical stuff that people want to hold in their hand to actually feel like they got something for their hard earned money will never go away. And there will always be people that would never pay for "smoke" and comparing gaming with movies. That is just ridiculous its not even in the same ballpark to want to own like Blu-Ray and other physical stuff is.

It's not ignorance it's just Joblo doesn't want to spend money buying blurays when they can just watch it online, be it legally or illegally. Look I'm all for physical media and I was so resistant to accept its demise, but I can't deny it anymore. The terrible support of UHD thus far is only further evidence of studios not giving a damn about physical media.

[Rixx]

Originally Posted by Rich1631

I'm 100% for physical media. But its inevitable the switch to streaming and digital. It's just the future.

Along with issues mentioned in the thread below

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=284834

[ElvisForever]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

If you think TV shows are inferior then the price is irrelevant. Even if a complete series is $20 why would you want to spend 50 hours watching something you don't particularly like.



If Blu-ray still hasn't "blossomed" in the 10 years it's been out what could possibly cause that to happen?

When did I say I didn't like TV???

I didn't know there was a 10 year rule for widespread home acceptance. You better tell that to videotape because it took close to 35 years to truly rule.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by ElvisForever

When did I say I didn't like TV???

You said you'd much rather have movies. By definition that makes TV inferior. Plus if you think 12 hours of content is overpriced at $20 you can't think much of that content.

Originally Posted by ElvisForever

I didn't know there was a 10 year rule for widespread home acceptance. You better tell that to videotape because it took close to 35 years to truly rule.

Videotape was a completely new concept: owning movies rather than watching them in theaters or on broadcast TV. It therefore is understandable that it took a long time to catch on.

But Blu-ray is just an upgrade over DVD. HDTVs are already in over 80% of homes in the United States and Blu-ray players have been easy to find for under $50 for 5 years. But many people are still consistently choosing DVD over Blu-ray. What could possibly cause them to switch at this point?

[reanimator]

Originally Posted by Rich1631

The terrible support of UHD thus far is only further evidence of studios not giving a damn about physical media.

How are you defining "terrible support?"

[Adcatalano]

The streaming boom over the past 5 years has concerned me as a lover of home video (looking back at how niche it was when I was in college seems crazy - who remembers when you needed discs to stream Netflix on the wii and ps3?). I don't claim to be any sort of expert in the facets of this discussion, but I've felt one huge factor in the decline of the physical format is that we are still introductions new "formats" but they are still disc based. As a big DVD collector I really though the next format would be flash based on a USB stick or sd card. But blu ray and now uhd are still disc based and I don't think that connects to the average consumer as an improvement or worth investing in. Hell I was super anti blu ray for a long time, I was a very late adoptor for a collecting fan) and I was vocal "upconvert for life" ha. I was the first DVD adopter I knew (and I was 12) but I didn't buy my first blu ray until 2011. That's a big drop off for an avid fan, now look at someone more average and it's understandable that the new disc based mediums haven't connected as well as they could have. I think if we got hd video on a different and more accessible format like flash memory we would have had the ideal balance of low cost for manufacturers and high yield/variety for consumers and we would have had another renaissance in home video. But streaming took advance of being different and it has paid dividends for them. People like new and different things, disc based media isn't exciting them. I think the positive buzz of the Nintendo switch going to cartridges exemplifies that.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Adcatalano

I think if we got hd video on a different and more accessible format like flash memory we would have had the ideal balance of low cost for manufacturers and high yield/variety for consumers and we would have had another renaissance in home video.

Discs are way cheaper to produce than flash memory. What advantage would flash memory have for a home player, how is it more accessible?

[ElvisForever]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

You said you'd much rather have movies. By definition that makes TV inferior. Plus if you think 12 hours of content is overpriced at $20 you can't think much of that content.

Your last sentence doesn't make sense. So if I think CD's were over priced and now Metallica's 3CD set is $9.99 and worth buying (but still would rather have a bluray audio at that price) than that means I don't think that much of the product???

I like Pizza more than Ice Cream. The best Ice Cream is not as good as the best Pizza to me. Also I think Ice Cream is often terribly overpriced, and if cheaper I would buy more of it. Doesn't mean I don't like Ice Cream or don't think much of it, it is just I prefer carbs and understand that on a desert island you can live off supeme pizza but not off just ice cream. Sooner or later you need some kind of content.

Videotape was a completely new concept: owning movies rather than watching them in theaters or on broadcast TV. It therefore is understandable that it took a long time to catch on.

No what changed is how cheap the price got. Buying broadcast tape was done all the time and people bought copies for broadcast rental when things were syndicated. The difference was after 30 years the home viewer got a cheaper version.

But Blu-ray is just an upgrade over DVD. HDTVs are already in over 80% of homes in the United States and Blu-ray players have been easy to find for under $50 for 5 years. But many people are still consistently choosing DVD over Blu-ray. What could possibly cause them to switch at this point?

Blurays are not "cheap". They are still terribly overpriced compared to the cost of the disc. No people are not consistently choosing DVD over bluray, if that were true DVD wouldn't continue to decline at a much faster rate than bluray and market share percentage wouldn't continue to drop.

The only thing that has changed is the renters market went to another delivery syem. The collector's haven't changed, and I argue that they have actually grown. I know for people like me who have always collected, I have bought more than I ever did, and I had a crap ton of vhs and LD and DVD.

You stated alarm because everything wasn't in print. That is normal, just like some things having more of a life on DVD. If price drops on the bluray and it is put out in a more complete form, I highly doubt even joe public would prefer it on a crappier medium. Like the Simpsons. True support is when the show ends and it is "complete".

But back to your "blockbuster" argument. Market share of those is the future. If blockbusters continue to gain percentage traction that is the way of the future. DVD's are being phased out and 4K blurays seeing more support is obvious.

It is like your concept that if something is a poor seller than it reverts to DVD. The show Nip Tuck had a bluray release, but then reverted to back to DVD. It wasn't that bluray was doomed, it was sales were low and the market was already established on DVD. One day many of these shows will see bluray in "complete" form and that is when sales will pick up (DVD has seen this on its last legs with complete tv show box sets selling at a fraction of the cost). Of course they won't all get it because the market has to dictate it. The renters will eat that up on Netflix and move on (like a soap opera). The collectors will likely be saying The Sopranos have a little more "meat/pizza" and its "complete" is well worth supporting more. Incidently the Sopranos also started out on bluray...then went back to having season 1 released on bluray...but of couse eventually went to full because HBO got wise and understood the value in their product and time is money (along with space on a shelf) and waiting for people to collect all seasons is fiscally retarded.

This is one of the reasons I have less respect for TV. It is supporting an unwritten product that is dictated by ratings instead of a written complete story idea. Sure you get people like George Lucas that had skeletons of ideas very early on in moving for too many sequels, or like Breaking Bad where there is obviously a game plan, but in most cases it is a ratings game which hurts the content of later seasons or sequels (but of course Marvel is an excption because of tada...more already written story!)

TV having large percentage fan base is a gimmick based on sequel sickness that comes from a saturated market. People enjoying collecting films and going to movies will never change. But the metroplex will crush by its own weight just like the fast food industry is seeing now.

The number of people stopped going to movies is the expense vs the reward. The same could be said about what comes out on bluray for TV. Game of Thrones breaks that mold for obvious reasons. The same can and will happen with renewed interest in movie theaters in the future....look at Imax on that one and Transformers 4 in dual Imax 3D. Lol

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by ElvisForever

Blurays are not "cheap". They are still terribly overpriced compared to the cost of the disc.

By that definition they never will be "cheap". The studios have no incentive to promote Blu-ray over DVD if they have to lower the price of Blu-ray. It's cheaper to manufacture DVDs than Blu-rays and it always will be.

Originally Posted by ElvisForever

But back to your "blockbuster" argument. Market share of those is the future. If blockbusters continue to gain percentage traction that is the way of the future. DVD's are being phased out and 4K blurays seeing more support is obvious.

Blockbusters are the only titles that sell better on Blu-ray than DVD. Since they make up the majority of the sales overall Blu-ray is trending upwards and DVD is trending downwards. But there is no chance of DVD being phased out as long as most titles continue to sell better on DVD.

Originally Posted by ElvisForever

It is like your concept that if something is a poor seller than it reverts to DVD. The show Nip Tuck had a bluray release, but then reverted to back to DVD. It wasn't that bluray was doomed, it was sales were low and the market was already established on DVD.

Empire, Wilfred, The Americans, Halt And Catch Fire, Louie, Enlightened, Modern Family, Glee, Powers, Mike & Molly, 2 Broke Girls, & Togetherness. With all those shows the first season launched simultaneously on Blu-ray & DVD. There was no established market on DVD. Yet all of them sold far better on DVD so later seasons were not released on Blu-ray. DVD remains the default choice for most titles whether or not there is an established market.

Originally Posted by ElvisForever

This is one of the reasons I have less respect for TV. It is supporting an unwritten product that is dictated by ratings instead of a written complete story idea. Sure you get people like George Lucas that had skeletons of ideas very early on in moving for too many sequels, or like Breaking Bad where there is obviously a game plan, but in most cases it is a ratings game which hurts the content of later seasons or sequels (but of course Marvel is an excption because of tada...more already written story!)

But that's not a format issue. People who are watching shows as they air (which continue to be the largest group) are supporting an even more unfinished product, each show could be cancelled in the middle of the season.