Oscar Race (2013)

[Snicket]

Ok, so what are your early picks for the Oscars? Plenty of buzz happening already and some sites went live with predictions months ago. I did really well last year (something like 96%) the trick is to realize the Academy Awards are NOT about picking the best films, but picking the ones the voters go for.

Right now I'm do a quick rundown of my best picture noms.

-Moonrise Kingdom, plenty of talk happening already, of films out now its got the best chance for a nom.

-Beasts of the Southern Wild, also a film with lots of hype, perhaps more so for its young lead actress.

-Life of PI, probably my most anticipated of the year now, and lots of good buzz after its footage debut at cinema-con.

-Les Mis, Oscar bait.

-The Great Gatsby, A bit of a gamble to be sure, the style may be off putting for some.

-Anna Karenina, I see this as a bit of an outside shot, but Joe Wright has played the Oscar game before and won.

-Rust and Bone, Lots of positive reviews out of Cannes this year, has a good chance.

-Lincoln, See War Horse


I'm not seeing Hobbit or Django Unchained getting in at this point, for various reasons, but thats not to say there wont be a push. Plenty of others to consider such as Zero Dark 30 and Hyde Park, the field is pretty wide right now.

I don't see Dark Knight Rises making any waves except for technical awards and an outside chance of Hathaway getting supporting.

[Aerodude73]

Michael Caine - Best Supporting Actor - TDKR

[Britnasty]

I wanna see people get pissed off this year as Meryl Streep gets a NOM for a subpar comedy.

She'll be back next year in the lead race for August:Osage County.

[Foggy]

The shooting at The Dark Knight Rises Screening has probably stopped it's chances of a nod, not that I think the film rose to Oscar material.

Django and Hobbit have high chances of nominations, the rest are pretty bland period pieces.

[jwerk]

Originally Posted by Foggy

The shooting at The Dark Knight Rises Screening has probably stopped it's chances of a nod, not that I think the film rose to Oscar material.

Django and Hobbit have high chances of nominations, the rest are pretty 1.) bland 2.) period pieces.

Aren't these the two biggest criterion for AA noms?

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Foggy

The shooting at The Dark Knight Rises Screening has probably stopped it's chances of a nod, not that I think the film rose to Oscar material.

Django and Hobbit have high chances of nominations, the rest are pretty bland period pieces.

The academy voters don't like films that take risks, the films that are safe and have a wide appeal get noms, hence the Artist winning last year.

[Steelmaker]

Don't overlook The Intouchables.

[Foggy]

Originally Posted by jwerk

Aren't these the two biggest criterion for AA noms?

Originally Posted by Snicket

The academy voters don't like films that take risks, the films that are safe and have a wide appeal get noms, hence the Artist winning last year.

I meant that's why they would get nominated. But even I have to say, the oscars always have one two many period pieces to choose from, one or two get cast out. I think the big cast out will be The Great Gatsby.

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Snicket

Ok, so what are your early picks for the Oscars? Plenty of buzz happening already and some sites went live with predictions months ago. I did really well last year (something like 96%) the trick is to realize the Academy Awards are NOT about picking the best films, but picking the ones the voters go for.

Right now I'm do a quick rundown of my best picture noms.

-Moonrise Kingdom, plenty of talk happening already, of films out now its got the best chance for a nom.

-Beasts of the Southern Wild, also a film with lots of hype, perhaps more so for its young lead actress.

-Life of PI, probably my most anticipated of the year now, and lots of good buzz after its footage debut at cinema-con.

-Les Mis, Oscar bait.

-The Great Gatsby, A bit of a gamble to be sure, the style may be off putting for some.

-Anna Karenina, I see this as a bit of an outside shot, but Joe Wright has played the Oscar game before and won.

-Rust and Bone, Lots of positive reviews out of Cannes this year, has a good chance.

-Lincoln, See War Horse


I'm not seeing Hobbit or Django Unchained getting in at this point, for various reasons, but thats not to say there wont be a push. Plenty of others to consider such as Zero Dark 30 and Hyde Park, the field is pretty wide right now.

I don't see Dark Knight Rises making any waves except for technical awards and an outside chance of Hathaway getting supporting.

Time to do an update before the awards season jumps in. (I know there is another Oscar thread but my picks are not in that one, would be great if a mod can merge both together hint, hint...)



So Gatsby is out, Anna Karenina is almost out but it seems to be hanging in there. I'm leaning towards it falling out of the race but something tells me it will be a nom yet. Rust and Bone I don't see getting in at this point, it needs much more of a push.


Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom are the ones that are always popping up in best picture predictions across the web. Something tells me only one will get a nom, so I'm going with Moonrise, while Beasts will get some acting love.

Because the cast was done with non SAG actors Beasts will have a tough time getting a win because they wont get a SAG push. Not impossible, but looking less likely.