Oscar Race (2013)

[Snicket]

Ok, so what are your early picks for the Oscars? Plenty of buzz happening already and some sites went live with predictions months ago. I did really well last year (something like 96%) the trick is to realize the Academy Awards are NOT about picking the best films, but picking the ones the voters go for.

Right now I'm do a quick rundown of my best picture noms.

-Moonrise Kingdom, plenty of talk happening already, of films out now its got the best chance for a nom.

-Beasts of the Southern Wild, also a film with lots of hype, perhaps more so for its young lead actress.

-Life of PI, probably my most anticipated of the year now, and lots of good buzz after its footage debut at cinema-con.

-Les Mis, Oscar bait.

-The Great Gatsby, A bit of a gamble to be sure, the style may be off putting for some.

-Anna Karenina, I see this as a bit of an outside shot, but Joe Wright has played the Oscar game before and won.

-Rust and Bone, Lots of positive reviews out of Cannes this year, has a good chance.

-Lincoln, See War Horse


I'm not seeing Hobbit or Django Unchained getting in at this point, for various reasons, but thats not to say there wont be a push. Plenty of others to consider such as Zero Dark 30 and Hyde Park, the field is pretty wide right now.

I don't see Dark Knight Rises making any waves except for technical awards and an outside chance of Hathaway getting supporting.

[Aerodude73]

Michael Caine - Best Supporting Actor - TDKR

[Britnasty]

I wanna see people get pissed off this year as Meryl Streep gets a NOM for a subpar comedy.

She'll be back next year in the lead race for August:Osage County.

[Foggy]

The shooting at The Dark Knight Rises Screening has probably stopped it's chances of a nod, not that I think the film rose to Oscar material.

Django and Hobbit have high chances of nominations, the rest are pretty bland period pieces.

[jwerk]

Originally Posted by Foggy

The shooting at The Dark Knight Rises Screening has probably stopped it's chances of a nod, not that I think the film rose to Oscar material.

Django and Hobbit have high chances of nominations, the rest are pretty 1.) bland 2.) period pieces.

Aren't these the two biggest criterion for AA noms?

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Foggy

The shooting at The Dark Knight Rises Screening has probably stopped it's chances of a nod, not that I think the film rose to Oscar material.

Django and Hobbit have high chances of nominations, the rest are pretty bland period pieces.

The academy voters don't like films that take risks, the films that are safe and have a wide appeal get noms, hence the Artist winning last year.

[Steelmaker]

Don't overlook The Intouchables.

[beadelf]

i dont reckon Hobbit will get nods/wins, not until the second part.

I think the Dark Knight could be a bit of a suprise this year, the shootings dont have anything to do with the film itself. Fingers crossed for best pic!....although a longshot!

[Lehnhart]

I don't think he'll even be considered, but Liam Neeson in The Grey was absolutely incredible.

[banjo!]

I am looking forward to seeing how the best supporting actress race turns out. It could be:


Anne Hathaway-"Les Miserables"
Amy Adams-"The Master"
Sally Field-"Lincoln"
Annette Bening-"Imogene"

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by banjo!

I am looking forward to seeing how the best supporting actress race turns out. It could be:


Anne Hathaway-"Les Miserables"
Amy Adams-"The Master"
Sally Field-"Lincoln"
Annette Bening-"Imogene"

You're missing Quvenzhane Wallis on that list. Thats if the studio decides to push her for supporting if the lead race is too tight. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see Hathaway get 2 noms.

Here is a crazy thought, anybody else out there think Emma Watson has a shot with Perks of Being a Wallflower? It's set to premier at Toronto, slightly unusual for a "teen" film, could be a big clue that Summit thinks they have something special.


I don't see the shootings playing into Rises chances at the Oscars its just that I don't think the film will play well with voters unless they give into massive pressure but there just doesn't seem to be any.


So the Toronto film festival line up was announced today, if you want to see Oscar winners early thats the place to be.

[drichter33]

You are way too early. Nothing gets considered unless it gets released in December or January, and especially if its a limited release film. That increases your chances of filling the noms with garbage no one has heard of or has had a chance to see. Although the list at the beginning of this post fits that description.

And TDKR really isnt Oscar worthy either as a movie or any of its cast. Michael caine does not do enough in the film IMO to be considered a strong supporting actor candidate. Although the academy has a habit lately of giving awards to old decrepit people nearing the ends of their careers (or lives) out of some nostalgic obligation. (see meryl streep last year)

Hobbitt wont get it cause they will do the same crap as with LOTR and wait for the whole thing to come out and then award the latest film.

Django maybe, but the academy doesnt like QT for some reason. Althoug it was nearly impossible for them not to give Chistoph Waltz the award for IB

[Zero_Cool]

Really not into the whole Oscar thing anymore. The last few years have not been my favorite. There are a few movies that I think can be nominated. This is all I can think of off the top of my head. I would say Hope Springs just because it has Meryl Steep.

Anna Karenina
Argo
Hyde Park on Hudson
The Master
Wreck It Ralph
Les Miserables
The Great Gatsby

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by drichter33

You are way too early. Nothing gets considered unless it gets released in December or January, and especially if its a limited release film. That increases your chances of filling the noms with garbage no one has heard of or has had a chance to see. Although the list at the beginning of this post fits that description.

Well thats just not true. Looking at the list from last year there a are a handful of films that are outside that time zone (Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris, The Help, Moneyball...) But during those months its easier to make a push because its on more peoples minds.

Originally Posted by drichter33

Michael caine does not do enough in the film IMO to be considered a strong supporting actor candidate. Although the academy has a habit lately of giving awards to old decrepit people nearing the ends of their careers (or lives) out of some nostalgic obligation. (see meryl streep last year)

Thats my main reservation with Caine as well, he just doesn't have enough screen time. They could do an "achievement" nom but I don't really see it in the cards.

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Zero_Cool

Anna Karenina
Argo
Hyde Park on Hudson
The Master
Wreck It Ralph
Les Miserables
The Great Gatsby

Arg, I missed two obvious choices. I really hope Argo does well, I think Ben Affleck will get a win one of these days, he is pretty talented as a director.

[fgomike]

The only way Dark Knight Rises wins is if the Academy decides to reward Nolan for the series as well as Inception. Sort of like what happened for Peter Jackson. ROTK was not the best picture of the LOTR Series, but it got all the love.

If this happens, DKR could win Picture, Director, Cinematography, Score. Long shots would be costume and screenplay.

I don't get all the hype about this Southern Beasts of the Wild thing. It doesn't look that interesting.

I look for Argo, Anna Karenna, The Master, Lincoln and Les Miz to dominate.

[Rudeboy2025]

Originally Posted by Steelmaker

Don't overlook The Intouchables.

Best foreign film please!

It's one of my favorite movies of this year and definitely one of my favorites of all time.

[Foggy]

Originally Posted by jwerk

Aren't these the two biggest criterion for AA noms?

Originally Posted by Snicket

The academy voters don't like films that take risks, the films that are safe and have a wide appeal get noms, hence the Artist winning last year.

I meant that's why they would get nominated. But even I have to say, the oscars always have one two many period pieces to choose from, one or two get cast out. I think the big cast out will be The Great Gatsby.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Foggy

I meant that's why they would get nominated. But even I have to say, the oscars always have one two many period pieces to choose from, one or two get cast out. I think the big cast out will be The Great Gatsby.

Oh, the Oscar-nuts who predict "Best Trailer I've Heard Of for Picture"...
Me, I look at the whole picture, director included, and decide to, um, conservatively hold back any bets on Gatsby.

A policy that might be more widely applied to some of the unreleased titles here.
(Oh, we thought you people had finally died off after that whole "The Postman will sweep Best Picture!" nonsense...)

[rezpekt]

The Master is backed by Harvey Weinstein. The end.