"Prophecies" of the war, please join

[DaDane]

It seems that both formats will be firmed this year.

It seems that HD-DVD players will be selling first and that approximately 100 movies will be released this year.
More than likely some enthusiasts will be eager to buy systems. These are probably mostly the same people who have loudspeakers worth more than your car. But if the price can be fair for the players there may be a mass market.

It seems that PS3 will be using BluRay. Expecting to ship millions of those in summer 2006 it will more than likely boost the BD movie market.
I think that with the PS3 there will be (many) more BD players than HD-DVD players. And I think that the movie companies would be stupid not to try to ride that wave, at least those who have choosen to go the BD way.

But what then? Who's gonna win the war?

I think that it is likely that some clever company starts shipping players which can do both. How will that impact the decision? Which format will the movie companies then choose? HD-DVD because they can do it a bit cheaper? BD because they can ship 1080p and the capacity is larger (making room for the 1080p or a longer movie or ???)

[zombie]

Originally Posted by DaDane

Who's gonna win the war?

I think that it is likely that some clever company starts shipping players which can do both. How will that impact the decision? Which format will the movie companies then choose? HD-DVD because they can do it a bit cheaper? BD because they can ship 1080p and the capacity is larger (making room for the 1080p or a longer movie or ???)

All good questions. Hopefully we'll have a lot more answers a year from now. I believe PS3 and the PC world will have a huge impact on BD's success. I've been predicting all along that BD will win and IMO the signs still point towards HD-DVD's early demise. Worse case senario we have two HD disc formats. However, I'm confident that the option of BD failing while HD-DVD wins will not happen. Still, time will tell who's right and who's wrong.

[DaDane]

I think that one of BD's problem really is that not all players want it to be standard, - or at least not to fast.

I think that Sony is pretty happy without BD burners (to make copies of PS3 games), also I hear that BD is selling already in Japan. But why only in Japan? Could it be because a few players have a nice market there already with high prices that they are perfectly happy milking, - even if that means loose of (BD's) market shares on other markets?

[georgir]

I'm sure you could buy a BD recorder even in america, its not only japan. or you could import it. but since the standard itself isn't complete yet, all recorders are like, "beta version". probably using the standard for dvd mpeg-2 encoding and filesystem structure, maybe some having mpeg-4 or windows media encoding... to a large degree incompatible between different brands/models, certainly incompatible with the future BD-video format in which movies will be published (because the copyprotection system hasn't been chosen yet, or has it?), etc.

no doubt the recordings made with this early hardware will be perfectly usable on PCs, visible as data disks with some video files. maybe even a lot of standalone players will be able to play them, just as dvd-players now can play avi files from data dvds... but it will not be standard and not guaranteed to work.

also most of those recorders will probably not be able to play the final BD-video format disks, but i guess a firmware upgrade will be enough to fix that in most cases.

the above is just my oppinion, nothing is a verified fact. i'm too lazy to search for sources or verification or anything ops:

[ca1ore]

Since the 'war' seems inevitable, I think the best outcome is for an early winner. Otherwise we may end up with two protracted losers (see SACD vs. DVD-A as an example).

Unfortunately, I do not see an early winner as likely, given the current alignment of the content providers.

Remember that the overwhelming majority of consumer don't care about technological differences - just that the format can deliver a high definition picture with acceptable sound - and both formats will be able to do this. Everything else is just spin!

Can either format win an extended format war? Certainly the consumer will be a big loser by either not getting into the game at all or risking getting stuck with unuseable equipment and software (i.e. DIVX).

What a mess!!

Simon

[phloyd]

The Japanese recorders are little more than 'extra fancy DVDR' devices. They will record the streams and probably offer a simplified menu like the set top DVDR machines.

The things that are being hashed out now are the copy protection and menu systems needed for the BDROM titles, so you get beyond the experience of even pressed DVDs.

Cheers!
DAve.

[john_1958]

The trouble with import is alot of devises are not compatible with power outage so I don't think person can buy BD or HD-DVD just yet

[tron3]

Originally Posted by DaDane

But what then? Who's gonna win the war?

I think that it is likely that some clever company starts shipping players which can do both. How will that impact the decision? Which format will the movie companies then choose? HD-DVD because they can do it a bit cheaper? BD because they can ship 1080p and the capacity is larger (making room for the 1080p or a longer movie or ???)

Having worked almost 1.5 years in retail, it has enhanced my view of how the public views technology.

HD-DVD will definately have the upper hand coming out first. PLENTY of people still don't know about blu-ray and will buy the first thing that comes out. By the time blu-ray shows it's face, people will be like...screw that...I'm sticking to HD-DVD.....it's what my friends bought!

Now consider price and support. In the Beta vs VHS wars of the 80's the mantra was "Beta is better". But Sony made the mistake of wanting to be the only game in town. Only one choice for beta is as good as no choice.

People bought the cheaper VHS. Why? It was CHEAP! I can't tell you how many times people came into the God forsaken Radio Shaft, where I worked, and wanted the cheapest of something.

Being first and cheaper gives HD-DVD an edge. It just might be a fatal blow to blu-ray. People don't understand technology, unlike most people who read and post here. Consider these senarios.... HD-DVD? What is that?! Ohh, High Def DVD....Cool!

blu-ray? what is THAT? High def dvd? Huh? Isn't that like HD-dvd? I'll go with hd-dvd, I like the name better and it's cheaper. <rolls eyes>

It's insane but this is how most people will think. Only us techno-geeks understand the difference. To the average consumer, hi-def is hi-def...period. Most won't understand the technical difference no matter how much you explain. They don't want to hear it. They hear what they want to hear.

If blu-ray isn't the ONLY game in town when it is realeased, consumers are going to get angry over the 2 standards and most will buy NOTHING!
In this case, a choice is BAD. That is what I am doing...buying NOTHING until these companies grow up and settle on a standard. The only good choices will come when one standard is settled. Then people will decide if they want their hi-def DVD player to be Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba, etc.

How many times have I said this before? the Sony execs must read my posts because someone quoted me verbatim. "We don't want to piss off the consumer with a double standard...." or something like that.

[erdega79]

I am already tired of this war and it hasn't even started yet. Yet, I feel it will be more of whimper in the end. The way I look at it,next year BD will be in millions of homes in ps3 and computer drives.

The so called name recognition of hd dvd is actually its weakness. Consumer will think their current dvd is enough .
Think about it, back some years ago, would you rather be interested in a product named dvd or say super cd when only cd was knowm?
New name associates with progress and improvements which in this case is right.
When upgrading, consumers want to feel general difference otherwise it's not worth it time or money. Name like blu ray is more intriguing to the consumer that they'll want to learn on more. When they have it on their game console or computer, it should be easy learning and easy migration

[theonlymember]

Whichever one Wal-Mart or Best Buy suppors will win.

[Gorkab]

Originally Posted by erdega79

I am already tired of this war and it hasn't even started yet. Yet, I feel it will be more of whimper in the end. The way I look at it,next year BD will be in millions of homes in ps3 and computer drives.

The so called name recognition of hd dvd is actually its weakness. Consumer will think their current dvd is enough .
Think about it, back some years ago, would you rather be interested in a product named dvd or say super cd when only cd was knowm?
New name associates with progress and improvements which in this case is right.
When upgrading, consumers want to feel general difference otherwise it's not worth it time or money. Name like blu ray is more intriguing to the consumer that they'll want to learn on more. When they have it on their game console or computer, it should be easy learning and easy migration

Yep, no one would have change their VHS when S-VHS has come ! So why should the consumers buy a product which seems very familiar to something they already have since 8 years maximum ! VHS was tehre for at least 30 years ! I think that it will be difficult to call something a war if there is no one to buy any of the two formats...

PS : But ! Today we have video game consoles and computers ! So, what is the most hugest format ? Blu-Ray !!! What is the format of the most powerful video game console ? BLU-RAY !!!!

[theonlymember]

So are you saying that people aren't picking up HDTV's because they have a resemblance to TV's? I don't think so. Why aren't people heavily buying HDTV's? CUZ THEY'RE EXPENSIVE! EXPENSIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh most people probably know that HDTV's are waaaaaayyyy better than regular TV's. Just like people will know HD-DVD's/Blu Ray are better than DVD's. What will be the huge barrier for the next gen's? If they're EXPENSIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "I gotta buy a new HD-DVD/Blu Ray player for $1000? NOO WAAAAYYYYYYY!!!!" Go ahead home theatre buffs, spend your life savings on it. Be "ahead of the times." But I'm not blowing that much money on seeing THE SAME PLOT just being able to see someone scars or sweat better. That's what millions of Americans said when DVD came out and that's what millions of Americans will say when HD-DVD/Blu Ray come out. Now to get over that hump, I see two ways. Have some way to have the next gens play on current DVD players. Like the hybrid disk that someone posted that HD-DVD has, or if the PS3 sells the way the PS2 did. If the PS3 sells the way the PS2 did, then Blu Ray WILL win. Why? Look what the PS2 did for DVD. BUT if HD-DVD has that hybrid disk. Then PS3 will be able to play HD-DVD's. AHAHAHHAHAHAHA.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by theonlymember

BUT if HD-DVD has that hybrid disk. Then PS3 will be able to play HD-DVD's. AHAHAHHAHAHAHA.

Not necessarily. Like DualDisc, HD-DVD will be thicker than a normal DVD disc and may not play on some players the way DualDisc has problems now.

[Gorkab]

And if the PS3 is blown away by the XBOX 360 & Revolution, HD-DVD will win and Blu-Ray will die

[thunderhawk]

People don't understand technology, unlike most people who read and post here. Consider these senarios.... HD-DVD? What is that?! Ohh, High Def DVD....Cool! Very Happy
blu-ray? what is THAT? High def dvd? Huh? Isn't that like HD-dvd? I'll go with hd-dvd, I like the name better and it's cheaper.

Think about it, back some years ago, would you rather be interested in a product named dvd or say super cd when only cd was knowm?
New name associates with progress and improvements which in this case is right.

What scenario will happen?

Well... I believe some people who really don't care about technology will choose the above situation.
People who think twice first and want to be a bit up-to-date, will probably choose the second situation.

Now you have to know what group has the upper hand... :?

[erdega79]

Originally Posted by theonlymember

So are you saying that people aren't picking up HDTV's because they have a resemblance to TV's? I don't think so. Why aren't people heavily buying HDTV's? CUZ THEY'RE EXPENSIVE! EXPENSIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh most people probably know that HDTV's are waaaaaayyyy better than regular TV's. Just like people will know HD-DVD's/Blu Ray are better than DVD's. What will be the huge barrier for the next gen's? If they're EXPENSIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "I gotta buy a new HD-DVD/Blu Ray player for $1000? NOO WAAAAYYYYYYY!!!!" Go ahead home theatre buffs, spend your life savings on it. Be "ahead of the times." But I'm not blowing that much money on seeing THE SAME PLOT just being able to see someone scars or sweat better. That's what millions of Americans said when DVD came out and that's what millions of Americans will say when HD-DVD/Blu Ray come out. Now to get over that hump, I see two ways. Have some way to have the next gens play on current DVD players. Like the hybrid disk that someone posted that HD-DVD has, or if the PS3 sells the way the PS2 did. If the PS3 sells the way the PS2 did, then Blu Ray WILL win. Why? Look what the PS2 did for DVD. BUT if HD-DVD has that hybrid disk. Then PS3 will be able to play HD-DVD's. AHAHAHHAHAHAHA.

I think you are comparing entirely different scales of economics. TV sets run into many thousands of dollars or tens of thousands whereas this is the disc format and players that will be well below 1K even in the beginning. HDTV is still in its infancy this year and that's because there is very little of anything to drive it, lack of sources. Once BD comes out as that one source , it will accelearate HDTV adoption exponentially.

[theonlymember]

If you're saying that an entertainment device that is $500-$999 is NOT expensive, I congratulate you, for you have succeeded in life. I know, and most people will agree with me that for something that in essence plays movies. $500 is a LOT! A LOT of people on this forum think that watching movies in High Def is at the top of the "to do list" for Americans and the BD's will FLY off the shelves. I don't think so. How long did it take for DVD to take off, 3 years arguably? All that I'm saying is, people WILL NOT want to buy new hardware just to watch high def movies. BUT for people who will buy the PS3, with it being able to play blu ray and retailing at approx 400, blu ray will be the option. Plain and simple. W/O PS3, Blu Ray would take YEARS to be widely adopted.

[Gorkab]

Originally Posted by theonlymember

If you're saying that an entertainment device that is $500-$999 is NOT expensive, I congratulate you, for you have succeeded in life. I know, and most people will agree with me that for something that in essence plays movies. $500 is a LOT! A LOT of people on this forum think that watching movies in High Def is at the top of the "to do list" for Americans and the BD's will FLY off the shelves. I don't think so. How long did it take for DVD to take off, 3 years arguably? All that I'm saying is, people WILL NOT want to buy new hardware just to watch high def movies. BUT for people who will buy the PS3, with it being able to play blu ray and retailing at approx 400, blu ray will be the option. Plain and simple. W/O PS3, Blu Ray would take YEARS to be widely adopted.

I agree with you. DVD spent 3 years to advertise its capabilities, why should not the two new formats ?

[assur191]

This is the way I see it --
The biggest issue will be in regards to the players. I doubt many people will spend several hundred dollars to buy a new player for discs that may soon be obsolete. Most of the people I know couldn't care less about the new formats, and are just fine keeping their dvd players. However, there is one wildcard here. -- the PS3.
By the end of '06, likely millions of people will own a PS3 that can play Blu-Ray right out of the box. That takes care of the problem of spending money for a player that might be obsolete later. If the people already have a player, I'm sure many will at least try Blu-Ray, and if the quality is as amazing as I'm hearing, then they'll keep buying. By that time, I'm sure the other movie studios will see that Blu-Ray is selling quite well, and will start producing titles on Blu-Ray. By then, I'd imagine HD-DVD will be dead. Your thoughts, please....

[k1200rs]

More and more people are buying flat HD Screens (Plasma and LCD) or Projectors. It's becoming a great business success. Just go in a TV shop, you'll see. I hardly see anyone buying CRT's these days.
These screens cost several 1,000 of $.
And guess what...there are no HD movie today available on the market... Quite amazing no?
Dont you think that all these customers are ready to purchase a HD movie reader device as soon as it is available on the market? Do you think that 500$ dollars would make a difference for people who already spent huge amount of money for their screen, Home-cinema, Surround speakers, etc?
(and do you know the cost of today's high-quality DVD/SA-CD/CD/DVDA player with HDMI connector? some are much more expensive than 500$).
I am one of these customers waiting for a HD reader device and movies to be available, and I think I am not the only one, because we all are eager to see HD movies on our brain new HD screens.
In other words, let's not compare yesterday DVD market with today's HD market, the context is quite different.


Just for info., I am living in Belgium, I bought my HD Plasma screen in a small shop 2 weeks ago. The vendor told me that he was selling between 5 and 10 HD flat screens per day (most are HD today)! There are 4-5 vendors in that shop. Some models were already out of stock for the country...