26.06.07 release week - HD DVD vs. Blu-ray

[BTBuck1]

HDDVD

American Me (Universal) (Too much man love for my taste)
Army of Darkness (Re-issue) (Universal) Cult following(lame movie IMO)
Being John Malkovich (Universal) Some enjoy this
The Big Lebowski (Universal) Probably the best seller of the list.
Black Snake Moan(Paramount) Also avail on BD
Bulletproof (Universal) I like it, many don't
Dead Silence (Universal) Never heard of it
Freedom: 1 (Bandai Visual) What the heck is this? they'll sell 50 copies.
Hustle & Flow(Paramount) Also avail on BD
Mallrats (Universal) Cult following
Meet Joe Black (Universal) supposedly good.
Mystery Men (Universal) Never heard of it.
Unleashed (Re-issue) (Universal) This has been out for ages, non issue
The Watcher (Universal) Snore

Blu-ray

Black Snake Moan(Paramount) Haven't seen.
Hustle & Flow(Paramount) Good flick!

Of all those HDDVD releases, I am maybe buying two, but I am also getting the TWO releases comming on BD that week

Will HDDVD make a neilson comeback this week?

Discuss.

[Zaphod]

I guess we can give one week out of 52 to HD-DVD

[GaS]

I think you should hold off on your hd-dvd purchases for just a week.

I was already going to get black snake, but I may squeeze in an extra title or two that I wasn't really planning on buying. Would really like to see BD take the week. I like to kick'em when they are down.

[Fozziwig]

I posted this analysis of the weeks in June over at AVMS a while back and I still stand by it:

The first 3 weeks should be comfortable Blu-ray wins.

Update:
w/e 10th June BD: 66% HD DVD: 34%
w/e 17th June BD: 64% HD DVD: 36%
w/e 24th June ??
w/e 1st July ??

On the face of it June 26th (w/e July 1 for Nielsen) looks strong for HD DVD but on closer investigation of the HD DVD exclusives we see:

3 music titles:

Deep Purple: Live at Montreux 2006 (Rhino)
Santana: Hymns for Peace - Live at Montreux 2004 (Rhino)
Yes: Live at Montreux (Rhino)

Update: These 3 have since been moved to July 24th

1 Anime title:

Freedom: Vol. 1 (Bandai Visual)

2 re-issued titles (already on HD DVD)

Unleashed
Army of Darkness

Not much to set sales alight so far.

Next we have a bunch of oldish catalogue titles:

Meet Joe Black (Universal)
Mystery Men (Universal)
The Watcher (Universal)
Being John Malkovich (Universal)
Bulletproof (Universal)
The Big Lebowski (Universal)
American Me (Universal)
Mallrats (Universal)

Of these not one made over $50 million at the US box office (best was 'Meet Joe Black' with $44 million) and the most recent was released in 2000. It would take a real HD DVD loyalist to buy all of these. I don't see a lot of 'must buys' or demo material in there.

We know from experience that the above titles will see unit sales of anything from a few hundred to a few thousand. Collectively they could achieve sales of 8 - 10,000 but not much more.

Which leaves us with the only day/date premiere title exclusive to HD DVD:

Dead Silence (box office: $16.5 million)

Maybe 8,000 copies?

Add in Planet Earth, Batman Begins etc. and I think this week will see sales around the 25 - 30,000 mark for HD DVD PLUS whatever sales come in from the 2 neutrals, 'Black Snake Moan' & 'Hustle & Flow' - I don't see either of those doing great numbers either.

For Blu-ray to beat HD DVD it has to rely on the strength of recent releases - which will also include 'Ghost Rider' and 'Bridge to Terabithia'. Can Blu-ray do it?

I think there's a strong probability it will. And if it does it blows the release volume argument out of the water. It will show that what really matters in order to get sales moving are big box office titles that premiere day & date with the DVD counterpart. A load of old catalogue titles can help to support the big hitters but you need the big hitters in the first place.

It's what most of us believe anyway and it's backed up by the figures week in, week out.

[Zvi]

Dunno the rest but I really like Army Of Darkness

[buckshot]

Originally Posted by Zvi

Dunno the rest but I really like Army Of Darkness

klatu verata .......necktie, kind of got it right.

[movies3]

Originally Posted by GaS

I think you should hold off on your hd-dvd purchases for just a week.

I was already going to get black snake, but I may squeeze in an extra title or two that I wasn't really planning on buying. Would really like to see BD take the week. I like to kick'em when they are down.

i think anyone should hold off on buying more HD DVD releases ever, since HD dvd isnt doing so well.

[Chris Beveridge]

I doubt Freedom will make much of an impact, for better or worse. As much as I enjoy the disc and how it looks, 24 minutes for $40 list isn't going to make much headway in nielsen reporting locations.

[Zyclone]

army of darkness is a great movie dude/dudette

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by BTBuck1

Will HDDVD make a neilson comeback this week?

Discuss.

I think there is a good chance HD DVD will win that week (by a tiny amount). But, it will be the HD DVD faithful (and Toshiba, Universal and the HD DVD PRG) that will be calling it a "comeback".

The week after will go Blu-ray again.

Now, what is the fallout if BD wins that week?

Gary

[monkyman]

I actually like Mystery Men, own it on reg dvd.

[RUR]

Originally Posted by buckshot

klatu verata .......necktie, kind of got it right.

Klaatu barada nikto, Gort! Did they use or abuse that line in AoD?

[phloyd]

Since none of the catalog titles have broken into the top HD DVD sales so far, I expect that the impact of having these released to be pretty subdued.

That said it is also clear that HD DVD sales overall has more 'low sellers' contributing so I expect some impact.

I don't expect HD DVD to win that week though they might make it into the 40's.

If they don't make it into the 40's, it is clear that bunches of mediocre image quality on average films does not a format make

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by phloyd

If they don't make it into the 40's, it is clear that bunches of mediocre image quality on average films does not a format make

Nacho Agrees-

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by phloyd

If they don't make it into the 40's, it is clear that bunches of mediocre image quality on average films does not a format make

It's one of those great situations. A win for HD DVD means nothing, since Blu-ray has only two common releases that day. But, a loss may pretty much kill HD DVD.

Universal's strategy of quantity over quality will have clearly backfired. And the vaunted attach rate will have been shown to have lost steam (as well as "I want Universal's catalog"). They need a big win to be seen to have any hope at all.

There are a lot of titles in that set I would have probably bought if they were of outstanding quality and on Blu-ray.

Gary

[bferr1]

Avoid "Meet Joe Black" at all costs. Painfully overlong at three hours, Brad Pitt eating peanut butter, and everyone... delivers... their... lines... this... slowly,... pausing... for... dramatic... effect... like... it... was... Shakespeare,... which... it... ain't.

On a personal note, this was the first date I ever went on with my wife, so unfortunately I can never forget it, like it truly deserves.

[movies3]

really i thought it was a good one time watch movie, i didnt think it was bad at all.

[zombieking]

Originally Posted by movies3

really i thought it was a good one time watch movie, i didnt think it was bad at all.

Obviously a Brad Pitt fan zzzzz

[The Don]

Originally Posted by zombieking

Obviously a Brad Pitt fan zzzzz

he's been in some of my favorite movies...there's no reason not to like him as an actor...he's been in several quality films..