Prediction. "HD DVD wins and Fox and Disney onboard in 2007"

[JTK]

Get a load of this latest piece of fanboy fodder and lies.

See how many untruths you can uncover in this wishful thinking:


http://www.tvpredictions.com/whipblu102406.htm

Swanni is of the opinion that Blu-ray will defeat HD-DVD. I respectfully disagree. I find it more probable that neither will become mass items and that both will survive as niche products than that Blu-ray (BD) will win out.

It is possible that HD downloads will be available before either of these formats reach the masses, which if true, will spell the death of both as home movie formats. However, I feel that it is quite possible, if not likely, that HD-DVD will prove to be the format of choice for HD movies for several reasons.

The first is the cost of the players. The first generation Toshiba, the HD-A1, retailed for $499. It could be purchased from several retailers for as little as $399.
The Samsung BD player, on the other hand, retailed for $999. The same is true for the new Phillips. The Panasonic is about $1300. and the Pioneer even more.

(The Sony Blu-ray player, which is being made by Pioneer, is now delayed until December and is set to be sold for $999.)

It is clear that the Toshiba has far outsold the Samsung at this juncture. At the prices noted above, only the most eager Home Theater enthusiasts are buying into BD at this point. On the other hand, there are at least 50,000 HD-DVD players that have been sold. In some estimates, HD-DVD titles have outsold BD titles by a factor of at least 3:1.

The Trojan Horse for the BD camp, the PS3, is not likely to make the big splash for BD movies as anticipated as it will be purchased mainly by gamers who will not likely use it to watch BD movies but play games.

How many times have we seen this wishy washy argument thrown around?

It's irrelevant. All that matters is hardware being sold and overall market penetration and final numbers. If BD penetrates by sheer "accident" because it's an integral part of the PS3, what does it matter? It's still there, it's still penetrating, and oh yeah, a nice BD50 of Tallgaeda Nights, a fairly popular film, is being packed in with every PS3.

On the other hand, the XBox360 "add on" HD-DVD drive at $199 is selling out its preorders and may add another 100,000 to 250,000 new HD-DVD players into the market by the end of the year.

Where's his proof and documention for this?

The people I've talked to have told me they barely have been able to move or advertise it. The gamers, by and large, don't care about this thing.

Unlike the PS3, these drives are being purchased expressly to play HD-DVD movies, not games.

And it just doesn't matter in the end.

All that matters is final numbers and overall market penetration.

Therefore, with the first generation players, the XBox add on and the new second generation HD-DVD players coming on the market this month, it is possible that there will be several hundred thousand HD-DVD players in homes by the end of the year. This will also be something noticed by the movie studios.

It's possible that pigs will fly outside of my window tonight, at the rate this "logic" is going. Arguably as probable.

There are rumblings that two of the movie studios firmly in the BD camp, Fox and Disney, have not been happy with the BD rollout and are considering also supporting HD-DVD in 2007.

ANY documentation for this? No, of course not. More FUD and propoganda.

If this does come to pass, it will be difficult to see how HD-DVD will do anything but continue to thrive.

As an owner of a HD-DVD player and one who has seen two of the current BD players in action,

Which ones? For how long? Which movies? What conditions? etc. etc.

Of course no further specifics are offered.

... the best that BD will be able to do is match HD-DVD in terms of picture and audio quality. It will not surpass it.

What a #$%^ing lie. Amir himself couldn't have written it any better.

Formats EVOLVE. Compare DVD's of today vs. 10 years ago.

As it stands now, with the number of HD-DVD players out there and the movies being released, HD-DVD will be with us for a long time. Should any of the possibilities noted above actually come to pass, it is quite possible that HD-DVD will become the dominant format.

At this point, it seems clear to me that HD-DVD will continue as a viable format for several years. With any luck, it could even win the format war.

Just more desperate, grasping at straws "logic" for the HD-DVD fanboys to grasp on to in an ever growing world of Blu.

Nothing but rumors and hearsay, and yet I see this kind of stuff constanlty bandied about as truth and gospel.


There's so many lies and biased ASS-U-mptions here it's downright laughable. Where are the specifics? Where's the documentation? What are the sources?

There just isn't a damned thing to it.

Some people are in for a rude awakening in the next few months.

[blitz6speed]

It is indeed a sad time.

Tough for them tho! Theres always XanaX.

[JTK]

One thing I've said for months and I'll say it again here:

The PS3 certainly helps BD, but I do not believe it is the end all, be all of the format war.

I never have.

How much of a factor does it end up ultimately being?

That's all up to Sony. Sony needs to provide enough units to meet demand and the marketing/PR/advertising for the PS3 needs to be better than what it is write now, as of this writing.

The TGS was big for the PS3. God knows they were sorely overdue for some genuine buzz and enthusisam about the games and TGS did it for them.


I've seen a recent PS3 Tv spot and didn't do much for me. They need to step it up and start raiding the airwaves with PS3 ads that are good and compelling.


Blu-Ray, as a whole, is reliant on ALL of the BDA companies. Not just Sony. They ALL have to pitch forth and I think they will.


As a sidenote to that: I'm even starting to see really good word of mouth on the Pioneer Elite BD player, even from at least one individual who's been as belligerent of an HD-DVD supporter as possible, despite claiming to be a Sony and Pioneer installer. Some of you know who I'm talking about.


^^ When a person like that posts something like this:

Despite being a preproduction unit with much of the functionality diabled, I have changed my plan for adding Blu-ray to my system to now include the Pioneer player as one of two possible options, along with Sony's player. This demo unit is that good, at least as far as video quality goes.

The only reason Pioneer did not go to the top of the short list is that Sony is using the same Sigma Designs chip as Pioneer that enable native 1080/24P output and the Sony is quite a bit less money. My Sony Pearl projector REALLY likes 1080/24P and that has now become THE required feature for me.

Hell, the ground practically under foot when I read that from this person.

Believe me: This is a person who has been as arrogant, belligerent, and downright nasty of a BD basher as there could be, despite claiming to be an installer for Sony and Pioneer products. He's shilled HD-DVD for the last year as much as anyone could.

And yet look at what he's saying today.


THAT is where the format war begins and ends, right there, with that kind of enthusiast at that level.

[Rob Tomlin]

I posted this on the other forum, so I will post it here too since it is based on the same article:

Brian does an excellent job of pointing out the inconsistent arguments made by the author of that piece. You can't have it both ways. Gamers will either buy HD discs, or they won't.

It simply does not make any sense to say that the "PS3 is not likely to make the big splash for BD movies as anticipated as it will be purchased mainly by gamers who will not likely use it to watch BD movies but play games" and then turn around and say "On the other hand, the XBox360 "add on" HD-DVD drive at $199 is selling out its preorders and may add another 100,000 to 250,000 new HD-DVD players into the market by the end of the year. Unlike the PS3, these drives are being purchased expressly to play HD-DVD movies, not games".

The PS3 will come with a BD movie included. Everyone who buys one will know that they can play BD movies on it. There is absolutely no reason to believe that the percentage of PS3 users that play BD movies will be lower than those who have a 360. In fact, the logical conclusion is that is will be a HIGHER percentage, since PS3 owners do not have to go out and buy an "add on" to have that capability.

The 360 add on is simply a method to keep up with the competition. And a good one at that! But lets not underestimate the positive impact that the PS3 will have on BD either.

JTK does a good job of pointing out all the wishful thinking and speculation in that article as well. Where in world is this info coming from saying that Fox is considering releasing on HD-DVD? Or Disney for that matter? The only proof I have seen re Disney is based on a statement that was made back in March of 2006!! (http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060313-6374.html) Seven months later and there is no sign whatsever that Disney is going to release on HD-DVD.

It drives me insane when people post pure speculation without an ounce of evidence to back it up. Someone please give me ANY statements, evidence, clues, ANYTHING that would indicate that Fox is even CONSIDERING releasing on HD-DVD. ANYTHING!

I will be waiting.............

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by JTK

^^ When a person like that posts something like this:




Hell, the ground practically under foot when I read that from this person.

Believe me: This is a person who has been as arrogant, belligerent, and downright nasty of a BD basher as there could be, despite claiming to be an installer for Sony and Pioneer products. He's shilled HD-DVD for the last year as much as anyone could.

And yet look at what he's saying today.


THAT is where the format war begins and ends, right there, with that kind of enthusiast at that level.

Who was this? Gary?

It seems the Pioneer Elite is getting some good initial reviews.

[Knight-Errant]

Oh maaaaaaan smell that panic!

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

Who was this? Gary?

It seems the Pioneer Elite is getting some good initial reviews.

Robert G.

[hyperdine]

This is just sad really. I almost feel sorry for the HD-DVD fanboys. They're just in a state of denial. It's kind of like they've hit rock bottom and they just keep repeating to themselves these things (even if they're not true) because they're delusional and it makes them feel better.

I think they're going to need a 12-step program if HD-DVD eventually fails.

Maybe they should've just called it HD-DOA or HD-DUD

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by hyperdine

Maybe they should've just called it HD-DOA or HD-DUD

I coined that last term many many months ago (just not here )

But it has grown and evolved into HD-DUD's FUD

[phloyd]

While I think that this 'prediction' is misguided and lame, I don't think that Bluray is out of the woods quite yet.

The BDA has quite a lot of catching up to do.

Even by year end they will still be behind in titles based on current announcements and Universal has a large number of releases in December as well as Kong coming out - which is quite a strong showing of support.

It is going to take Warner to get their releases balanced as well as Disney and Fox to start releasing more titles and this will happen over time but it does not look like it will be before year end.

Q1 will be really interesting (as much as to year end has been). But I wouldn't call this over just yet.

On the HD DVD side, hardware is their weakness. They need to get a better player out (phloyd remembers the lock up on the A1 last night) and even better if there is one that is not a Toshiba. The M$ box may help there if it works ok. While we might think it is lame, if the users tolerate its shortcomings, it is a win for HD DVD.

So both sides have their work cut out. Q1 will be interesting indeed.

[BTBuck1]

What I find ultimately humorous is remember that thread we made a while back with the Most Wanted Blu Ray Haters from avs forums.

90% of those guys now own a Blu Ray player and hardly mention HDDVD anymore...

Oh the Irony!

[hyperdine]

Originally Posted by phloyd

While I think that this 'prediction' is misguided and lame, I don't think that Bluray is out of the woods quite yet.

The BDA has quite a lot of catching up to do.

Absolutely a fair statement.

I think that the BDA has a better trajectory right now since they've really started to close the gap lately. The HD-DVD lead in terms of PQ has all but vanished.

The potential is there to absolutely crush HD-DVD, but they really need to execute and deliver on all of the hype.

This is just pure speculation and conjecture on my part, but I have a feeling we'll see some big announcements by the end of the year.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by JTK

Robert G.

Yep, saw his posts today.

Lets be honest though. He is a dealer. There was never any doubt that he would own a BD player (or two).

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

Yep, saw his posts today.

Lets be honest though. He is a dealer. There was never any doubt that he would own a BD player (or two).

Oh, I know.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by JTK

Oh, I know.

And he just posted that "HD-DVD is still my format of choice".

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

And he just posted that "HD-DVD is still my format of choice".

Oh, of course.

[vick vega]

The next hd dvd players to roll out cost a grand so they lost that advantage, and can they even play these supposed triple layer 45 gig discs? no probably not. Looks like another upgrade for the hd dvd players and their not even out yet. Blu-ray will be on triple layer 75 gig discs before hd dvd is on 45. Now that blu-ray is rolling it's full steam ahead.

[bferr1]

How can Robert George place so high an importance on the 1080/24P output of the Pioneer and Sony, saying this is the only reason he'll consider these players, and be such an HD DVD partisan when those players don't have the all-important 1080/24P output? I just don't get it.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by bferr1

How can Robert George place so high an importance on the 1080/24P output of the Pioneer and Sony, saying this is the only reason he'll consider these players, and be such an HD DVD partisan when those players don't have the all-important 1080/24P output? I just don't get it.

Doesn't the new Toshiba ($1000.00) have 1080p/24 output?

[bferr1]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

Doesn't the new Toshiba ($1000.00) have 1080p/24 output?

Not from what I've read.