Don't start celebrating... just yet - Blu-ray Forum

LynxFX · 10-16-2007, 05:59 PM

While the BOGO sales are awesome and lots of units are being sold, don't start celebrating yet. It is still pretty much guaranteed that Transformers will generate a weekly win for HD DVD if Paramount managed to get enough copies out there. Amazon numbers are horrible at judging total volume. B&M stores are where most sales are taking place. The BOGO sales will surely dampen Transformers affect as in I now think BD will be in the 40's vs in the 30's with my previous guess.

It will be some major achievement if BD wins that week and then we can all celebrate, but wait until the numbers are in. Because if/when Transformers does pull out the win for HD DVD you can guarantee that they will be in full force spouting how even with tons of BOGO sales BD couldn't overcome. It's apples and oranges BS but you know they will love to shout it from the roof tops, especially if for two weeks BD guys have been cheering about how good the sale worked and constantly show winners on Amazon numbers only. In otherwords, don't give them ammo, or set yourself up for disappointment.

Just a word of caution. Besides, in 2 more weeks we start the largest lineup for Tier A movies that HDM has seen so far.

cajmoyper · 10-16-2007, 06:02 PM

You're definitely right about that last part, BD is going to tear HD up the rest of the year. What's after TF? Shrek

SS316SRV · 10-16-2007, 06:04 PM

There is a huge focus on sales numbers. If HD DVD leads sales over one week, that doesn't mean that the war is over or even prolonged. All it means us that they had a huge exclusive release during a week when blu-ray didn't. Get off of the horse race aspect of the blu-ray/HD DVD comparison.

CptGreedle · 10-16-2007, 06:07 PM

This is true. If you look at www.eproductwars.com/dvd you can see that the sale has made a huge boost this week for BD, but HD is also showing some improvement from their sales of Transformers. It is not nearly as much, but it is likely going to last longer. Since the sale is not going to last that long, as soon as it is over, unless there is a big BD release, the sales of BD will drop while HD-DVD will likely continue the trend of going up for the transformers release for a week or 2 more.
However, I think this sale will boost the sales for BD overall and HD will haver a hard time catching up, especially if they are relying on this one release.
We can continue the trend for better sales and I hope this will be the start of the end of the war, but that might be too optimistic.

lokus · 10-16-2007, 06:08 PM

Has HD-DVD officially announced ALL of the titles being released by the end of the year? They could possibly have more releases up their sleeve.

user friendly · 10-16-2007, 06:08 PM

I honestly think with the BOGO/sales move, BD will retain the week as a win. It will be very, very close.

Sonny · 10-16-2007, 06:08 PM

Who cares what they say , there just pissed cause we have a bunch of sweet deals going on , theres no reason we cant win 60/40, funk TF.

Steverhcp02 · 10-16-2007, 06:09 PM

agreed, OP. However, the B&M stores are carrying the same sale as amazon and if we take the recent study that showed amazon as the 4th (or was it 5th) largest HDM retailer...we should also generally assume that the BOGO is having a large effect at the BB's and CC's as well

WickyWoo · 10-16-2007, 06:10 PM

Do not celebrate until a week from Friday and Blu beats HD

If we hold their victory to under 55/45 I'd call it a victory for our side anyway

w_tanoto · 10-16-2007, 06:14 PM

i'd say wait until 2 weeks after transformer result, then we can celebrate. remember, residual sales...
you are absolutely right. I never expect bd to win that week, but that bogo surely will cushion the blow

kaliraver · 10-16-2007, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sonny

Who cares what they say , there just pissed cause we have a bunch of sweet deals going on , theres no reason we cant win 60/40, funk TF.

I agree 100%, those HD-DUD owners aren't really looking forward to anything big for the rest of the year. This is their last hurrah and they got to make their point. If we win this week which I think we will what else do they have to say? This is the beginning of the end for HD-DVD. Hopefully at CES 2008 Warner goes exclusive & Universal at least goes neutral and its game over. I was at CC this morning and no one was buying the HD-DVD of transformers but there was a lot of people buying the DVD.

w_tanoto · 10-16-2007, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaliraver69

I agree 100%, those HD-DUD owners aren't really looking forward to anything big for the rest of the year. This is their last hurrah and they got to make their point. If we win this week which I think we will what else do they have to say? This is the beginning of the end for HD-DVD. Hopefully at CES 2008 Warner goes exclusive & Universal at least goes neutral and its game over. I was at CC this morning and no one was buying the HD-DVD of transformers but there was a lot of people buying the DVD.

sales of hi-def are low, so don't expect to see people buying it. I often buy BD, but never see a single person buy any hi-def

supersix4 · 10-16-2007, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

sales of hi-def are low, so don't expect to see people buying it. I often buy BD, but never see a single person buy any hi-def

thats cause your way more cool then everyone lol

LynxFX · 10-16-2007, 06:19 PM

My problem with the B&M sales is that they were horribly advertised, at least in my region. I went to Best Buy, Circuit City and Target and none of them had any clue about the sales. It is a page in their flier but that's it, no signage on the shelves which were fully stocked btw. It was nice to see that the local Best Buy finally expanded the BD section to a full 4' shelf (top to bottom) for BD. Add in the standie that they have BD is stocked 2:1 for HD there. But still, no signage of the sale.

My guess is that with the sale BD probably moved 50k discs. If Paramount shipped enough, they should easly clear 75k of Transformers alone, probably closer to 100k.

CptGreedle · 10-16-2007, 06:21 PM

honestly, i think BD will still win this week. The sale is great, and there are others just like it. Best Buy has one too (in fact they are honoring theirs and the Disney one). This is a huge sale really, and I think this will boost the sales enough to overcome anything Transformers will do.
Of course this is speculation based on the graphs I've seen on Amazon's sales, and even though their sales do not reflect the entire community, it is something to look at and I think it will show the same trend around the board.
However it is the residual sales of Transformers that I am concerned about. I don't think it will be a problem for us, but it might put a damper on sales for a week or 2.

w_tanoto · 10-16-2007, 06:24 PM

according to dvd empire:

week of 16 oct:
46% to hd dvd
53% to bd

not sure if this is for transformer week.

talbers23 · 10-16-2007, 06:28 PM

we also need to know that hd dvd group may do a bogo sale before the years end and we could lose a week just on that.

joeorc · 10-16-2007, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LynxFX

While the BOGO sales are awesome and lots of units are being sold, don't start celebrating yet. It is still pretty much guaranteed that Transformers will generate a weekly win for HD DVD if Paramount managed to get enough copies out there. Amazon numbers are horrible at judging total volume. B&M stores are where most sales are taking place. The BOGO sales will surely dampen Transformers affect as in I now think BD will be in the 40's vs in the 30's with my previous guess.

It will be some major achievement if BD wins that week and then we can all celebrate, but wait until the numbers are in. Because if/when Transformers does pull out the win for HD DVD you can guarantee that they will be in full force spouting how even with tons of BOGO sales BD couldn't overcome. It's apples and oranges BS but you know they will love to shout it from the roof tops, especially if for two weeks BD guys have been cheering about how good the sale worked and constantly show winners on Amazon numbers only. In otherwords, don't give them ammo, or set yourself up for disappointment.

Just a word of caution. Besides, in 2 more weeks we start the largest lineup for Tier A movies that HDM has seen so far.

WE DON'T HAVE TO CELEBRATE AT ALL ....see thats the big problem in this "SO CALLED FORMAT WAR"

i am sorry its not a win and it never will be right now..few people in the
HD DVD install base dictate that. most people will just grab the Standard DVD release. the problem is there is less than a million HD DVD players in consumer hands. AND THE HD DVD HAS BEEN ON THE MARKET ALMOST 2 YEARS NOW. we can celebrate IF WE WANT TOO because the Blu-Ray format does not have to rely on MOVIE sales to be a standard format, It already is a standard. HD DVD is the one that has to prove its self. not Blu-Ray...Blu-Ray is already a standard RECORDING format been that way since 2003 its already proven

SS316SRV · 10-16-2007, 06:30 PM

Sales numbers have little to do with Blu-ray winning. Blu-ray is a better format, that is why it is winning.

CptGreedle · 10-16-2007, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SS316SRV

Sales numbers have little to do with Blu-ray winning. Blu-ray is a better format, that is why it is winning.

This is true, the sale numbers are merely reflecting this fact.

10-16-2007, 05:59 PM	#1
LynxFX Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jul 2007	Ok start celebrating. ;) While the BOGO sales are awesome and lots of units are being sold, don't start celebrating yet. It is still pretty much guaranteed that Transformers will generate a weekly win for HD DVD if Paramount managed to get enough copies out there. Amazon numbers are horrible at judging total volume. B&M stores are where most sales are taking place. The BOGO sales will surely dampen Transformers affect as in I now think BD will be in the 40's vs in the 30's with my previous guess. It will be some major achievement if BD wins that week and then we can all celebrate, but wait until the numbers are in. Because if/when Transformers does pull out the win for HD DVD you can guarantee that they will be in full force spouting how even with tons of BOGO sales BD couldn't overcome. It's apples and oranges BS but you know they will love to shout it from the roof tops, especially if for two weeks BD guys have been cheering about how good the sale worked and constantly show winners on Amazon numbers only. In otherwords, don't give them ammo, or set yourself up for disappointment. Just a word of caution. Besides, in 2 more weeks we start the largest lineup for Tier A movies that HDM has seen so far. Last edited by LynxFX; 10-26-2007 at 07:02 AM.

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10-16-2007, 06:02 PM	#2
cajmoyper Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jun 2007 Location:San Antonio, TX Home Theater Gallery:8 Blu-ray collection:182	You're definitely right about that last part, BD is going to tear HD up the rest of the year. What's after TF? Shrek

10-16-2007, 06:04 PM	#3
SS316SRV Blu-ray Guru Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Appleton, WI Blu-ray collection:74	There is a huge focus on sales numbers. If HD DVD leads sales over one week, that doesn't mean that the war is over or even prolonged. All it means us that they had a huge exclusive release during a week when blu-ray didn't. Get off of the horse race aspect of the blu-ray/HD DVD comparison.

10-16-2007, 06:07 PM	#4
CptGreedle Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Sworn super-hero now services Atlanta (and suburbs). Blu-ray collection:128 Blu-ray reviews:5	This is true. If you look at www.eproductwars.com/dvd you can see that the sale has made a huge boost this week for BD, but HD is also showing some improvement from their sales of Transformers. It is not nearly as much, but it is likely going to last longer. Since the sale is not going to last that long, as soon as it is over, unless there is a big BD release, the sales of BD will drop while HD-DVD will likely continue the trend of going up for the transformers release for a week or 2 more. However, I think this sale will boost the sales for BD overall and HD will haver a hard time catching up, especially if they are relying on this one release. We can continue the trend for better sales and I hope this will be the start of the end of the war, but that might be too optimistic.

10-16-2007, 06:08 PM	#5
lokus Senior Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Marlton, NJ Blu-ray collection:72	Has HD-DVD officially announced ALL of the titles being released by the end of the year? They could possibly have more releases up their sleeve.

10-16-2007, 06:08 PM	#6
user friendly Active Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:The Great White North Home Theater Gallery:7 Blu-ray collection:87	I honestly think with the BOGO/sales move, BD will retain the week as a win. It will be very, very close.

10-16-2007, 06:08 PM	#7
Sonny Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Aug 2007 Home Theater Gallery:8 Blu-ray reviews:6 Trading Score:1	Who cares what they say , there just pissed cause we have a bunch of sweet deals going on , theres no reason we cant win 60/40, funk TF.

10-16-2007, 06:09 PM	#8
Steverhcp02 Senior Member Member since:Apr 2007 Blu-ray reviews: 1	agreed, OP. However, the B&M stores are carrying the same sale as amazon and if we take the recent study that showed amazon as the 4th (or was it 5th) largest HDM retailer...we should also generally assume that the BOGO is having a large effect at the BB's and CC's as well

10-16-2007, 06:10 PM	#9
WickyWoo Blu-ray Champion Member since:May 2007 Trading Score:2	Do not celebrate until a week from Friday and Blu beats HD If we hold their victory to under 55/45 I'd call it a victory for our side anyway

10-16-2007, 06:14 PM	#10
w_tanoto Blu-ray Samurai Top contributor Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Hatfield, UK / Jakarta, Indonesia Blu-ray collection:37 Blu-ray reviews:47	i'd say wait until 2 weeks after transformer result, then we can celebrate. remember, residual sales... you are absolutely right. I never expect bd to win that week, but that bogo surely will cushion the blow

10-16-2007, 06:19 PM	#14
LynxFX Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jul 2007	My problem with the B&M sales is that they were horribly advertised, at least in my region. I went to Best Buy, Circuit City and Target and none of them had any clue about the sales. It is a page in their flier but that's it, no signage on the shelves which were fully stocked btw. It was nice to see that the local Best Buy finally expanded the BD section to a full 4' shelf (top to bottom) for BD. Add in the standie that they have BD is stocked 2:1 for HD there. But still, no signage of the sale. My guess is that with the sale BD probably moved 50k discs. If Paramount shipped enough, they should easly clear 75k of Transformers alone, probably closer to 100k.

10-16-2007, 06:21 PM	#15
CptGreedle Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Sworn super-hero now services Atlanta (and suburbs). Blu-ray collection:128 Blu-ray reviews:5	honestly, i think BD will still win this week. The sale is great, and there are others just like it. Best Buy has one too (in fact they are honoring theirs and the Disney one). This is a huge sale really, and I think this will boost the sales enough to overcome anything Transformers will do. Of course this is speculation based on the graphs I've seen on Amazon's sales, and even though their sales do not reflect the entire community, it is something to look at and I think it will show the same trend around the board. However it is the residual sales of Transformers that I am concerned about. I don't think it will be a problem for us, but it might put a damper on sales for a week or 2.

10-16-2007, 06:24 PM	#16
w_tanoto Blu-ray Samurai Top contributor Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Hatfield, UK / Jakarta, Indonesia Blu-ray collection:37 Blu-ray reviews:47	according to dvd empire: week of 16 oct: 46% to hd dvd 53% to bd not sure if this is for transformer week.

10-16-2007, 06:28 PM	#17
talbers23 Active Member Top ranked HT gallery Member since:Aug 2007 Home Theater Gallery:24 iTunes collection:45	we also need to know that hd dvd group may do a bogo sale before the years end and we could lose a week just on that.

10-16-2007, 06:30 PM	#19
SS316SRV Blu-ray Guru Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Appleton, WI Blu-ray collection:74	Sales numbers have little to do with Blu-ray winning. Blu-ray is a better format, that is why it is winning.

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