So, about the Oscars...

[toef]

Based on an idea I had in one of the Avatar threads, I threw together a spreadsheet of all the Best Picture nominees from the last 30 years (movies from 1979 through 2008).

Then I added up all the Oscars they were nominated for, to see if there were any particular categories that the Best Picture movies tended to come from (e.g. Do Oscar voters consider directing, editing, and all sorts of other things when voting on BP nominees... or do they just pick the stories they like?).

This may make no sense to some people, but here goes. Using the 150 movies from the last 30 years, this is the percentage of them nominated in each of the other main Oscar categories:

88.67% -- Screenplay*

76.67% -- Director

62.67% -- Film Editing

48.00% -- Actor
46.67% -- Cinematography
45.33% -- Original Score

38.00% -- Supporting Actor
36.67% -- Art Direction
35.33% -- Supporting Actress
35.33% -- Sound**
31.33% -- Costume Design

28.67% -- Actress

10.67% -- Makeup
10.67% -- Original Song

08.00% -- Visual Effects

*There are two screenplay categories, but I merged them together. Separately they were 36.00% for Original Screenplay, and 52.67% for Adapted Screenplay

**Due to the confusion of sound Oscars (sometimes it's sound effects, sometimes it's sound, sometimes it's sound mixing, and there's usually always sound editing... I just combined them all).

~~~~~

The numbers don't necessarily prove anything about how Best Picture nominees are selected, because not all movies even qualify for each award (like special effects, or make-up, or original song).

That being said, the Best Actress category is telling, though not necessarily surprising.

And story seems like it's king.

But make of the numbers what you will.

[Elvis]

Umm didnt Up in the Air win best screenplay at the globes? Wasnt it named Best Picture buy the National Board of Review?

[Grand Bob]

Originally Posted by toefer

Based on an idea I had in one of the Avatar threads, I threw together a spreadsheet of all the Best Picture nominees from the last 30 years (movies from 1979 through 2008).

Then I added up all the Oscars they were nominated for, to see if there were any particular categories that the Best Picture movies tended to come from (e.g. Do Oscar voters consider directing, editing, and all sorts of other things when voting on BP nominees... or do they just pick the stories they like?).

This may make no sense to some people, but here goes. Using the 150 movies from the last 30 years, this is the percentage of them nominated in each of the other main Oscar categories:

08.00% -- Visual Effects

Uh-oh for Avatar; I'm still rooting for it!

[Diesel]

Originally Posted by Elvis

Umm didnt Up in the Air win best screenplay at the globes? Wasnt it named Best Picture buy the National Board of Review?

Those aren't the Oscars.

Regardless of their past of "predicting" the Oscars. No other awards have been 100% on the money.

Those eggs aren't chickens yet Elvis

Originally Posted by Grand Bob

Uh-oh for Avatar; I'm still rooting for it!

Cameron is going to get at least nominated for Director. So it has a shot at joining that ~77%.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Diesel

Those aren't the Oscars.

Regardless of their past of "predicting" the Oscars. No other awards have been 100% on the money.

Those eggs aren't chickens yet Elvis



Cameron is going to get at least nominated for Director. So it has a shot at joining that ~77%.

Agree Diesel. "Up in the Air" is really up in the air.

[toef]

Originally Posted by Elvis

Umm didnt Up in the Air win best screenplay at the globes? Wasnt it named Best Picture buy the National Board of Review?

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff up (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

[Diesel]

Originally Posted by toefer

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff anyway (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

But interesting to look at.

Good work putting that together Toef.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by toefer

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff anyway (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

Very good analysis... specially when compared to my irrational/somewhat rational exuberance for Avatar. The way I see it, Avatar has left its mark in the movie industry. Will anyone really think of "Up in the Air" a year from now?

[JLant19]

Originally Posted by toefer

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

I totally agree with you on this.

[Elvis]

Originally Posted by toefer

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff up (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

Avatar does not scare me. I mean it won the award for best picture in 1990!

[Elvis]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Very good analysis... specially when compared to my irrational/somewhat rational exuberance for Avatar. The way I see it, Avatar has left its mark in the movie industry. Will anyone really think of "Up in the Air" a year from now?

Hmmm good call! Does anyone really think of Annie Hall?

[Duffy12]

Originally Posted by Elvis

Hmmm good call! Does anyone really think of Annie Hall?

Of course.

They play it once a month on SpikeTV.

.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Elvis

Hmmm good call! Does anyone really think of Annie Hall?

Not too much now, but 32 years ago it was very popular. Much, much better than "Up in the Air" IMO.
Juno had a really cute script too.

Here's Jason with Diablo:

juno.jpg

[jhiggy23]

I agree with Toefer---it's between Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air. No other film has a chance of winning. The Hurt Locker is on the outside of the three and I firmly believe Up in the Air is going to sneak up and win. That being said, like Elvis and someone else pointed out, Avatar will be the film that is remembered regardless of if it wins or not.

[samdaman94]

Originally Posted by jhiggy23

I agree with Toefer---it's between Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air. No other film has a chance of winning. The Hurt Locker is on the outside of the three and I firmly believe Up in the Air is going to sneak up and win. That being said, like Elvis and someone else pointed out, Avatar will be the film that is remembered regardless of if it wins or not.

Amen!
Nice work putting those percentages together! Really interesting!

[vegeta88]

Great work toefer! I think there is efinitely a correlation between Best Picture and Screenplay but they all seem to be a little connected. An actor can give an amazing performance but if the script is bad, it isn't likely that person will win the award.

Originally Posted by Elvis

Avatar does not scare me. I mean it won the award for best picture in 1990!

[retablo]

Originally Posted by jhiggy23

I agree with Toefer---it's between Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air. No other film has a chance of winning. The Hurt Locker is on the outside of the three and I firmly believe Up in the Air is going to sneak up and win. That being said, like Elvis and someone else pointed out, Avatar will be the film that is remembered regardless of if it wins or not.

Actually, Hurt Locker's win at the Producer's Guild awards puts it ahead of Up in the Air. It's now a 2 horse race, between Avatar and Hurt Locker. 13 of the last 20 PGA wins have gone on to win Best Picture, which is decent odds but not a given.

[jhiggy23]

Originally Posted by retablo

Actually, Hurt Locker's win at the Producer's Guild awards puts it ahead of Up in the Air. It's now a 2 horse race, between Avatar and Hurt Locker. 13 of the last 20 PGA wins have gone on to win Best Picture, which is decent odds but not a given.

I agree that those are decent odds, but I still think Up in the Air has a better shot at winning than the Hurt Locker. The Academy has begun to give more attention to smaller films like Up in the Air and definitely have a thing for Jason Reitman, considering he somehow got an Oscar nom for best director (bafflingly) over Joe Wright for Atonement three years ago.


That being said, while I think Up in the Air and Avatar are the top two going in, you certainly can argue Hurt Locker as well. Regardless, those are the top three.

[Fighter]

The Hurt Locker felt like it was missing something. With all of the hype surrounding it and what not, it just felt a little empty.

Good movie, not great!

District 9 is the best film that I've seen in '09

[mikejet]

All the betting places have odds most in favor of Avatar winning best pic.