My Format War Analysis (Unfinished)

[NexusFX]

(This Post is NOT FINISHED and will be edited and finished in roughly 24 hrs to elaborate on the information posted including links to information regarding claims made. I'm still posting this to get some of your thoughts "so far" regarding my analysis, however presently it is time to go to bed, I'm friggin' tired and this is much longer than it even looks now )

Throughout the time I've been on these Boards, I haven't spoken up much. Today I feel that it's time to do so. Since this Format war got underway in 2006, I've followed and analyzed almost every forum, article, number, and news bulletin I can find.

Throughout these studies I've found and realized some very interesting information about this war. Obviously no one knows the future, however it is my understanding based on facts, numbers, and some good ol' fashioned common sense, that Blu-ray WILL be the WINNER of this war.

Of course, There are alot of factors that I'm sure could be argued and I'll be glad to take any information to have more solid facts.

Now then, let's start this little analogy, but how to start, ...how bout with.....The iPod

In 2001 Apple introduced what was to become the breakthrough product in digital music distribution, and it all started with a $399 price tag, which was an inordinate amount of money for even an mp3 player at that time. So how with such a high price tag did Apple do this. We all know now that the integration of the iTunes Music Store and the easy to understand and use interface appeals to a broad audience, but back then, it was just simply a very large hard drive based mp3 player that could seemingly hold every song we ever wanted. Many of the Apple loyalists were jumping on board as Apple unveiled it's second generation players with even more capacity, and the ability to use it on a Windows based machine, At which point sales rocketed once Apple made the iPod and the iTunes Music available to more than their own consumers. Things got even better for their golden ticket when a slew of "very clever" ad campaigns started to surface on national television known as the "Silhouettes" ads. They broadened their audience, and through all this, the iPod only really started lowering in price in the last two years, meaning those customers, "Despite the Price" chose a better way to enjoy Music.

So let's compare this to what Blu-ray is doing in their camp. Last yeah Blu-ray was introduced shortly after HD-DVD had begun releasing their formats hardware and software. In the months following both formats introductions, HD-DVD had held a solid lead in the HD Media Department based mostly on their early advantage and lower priced players. As November approached, the number's stayed steady. Then much like there had already been mp3's before Apple's iPod was introduced, Sony released the PS3, their "iPod" so to speak. Since it was introduced, blu-ray media sales have skyrocketed past HD-DVD's early lead, and have since taken an average 2:1 advantage over their rivals for over a year now.

The Playstation 3 is to be Blu-ray's Trojan horse, however many have criticized it, due mostly to it's sales when compared to Microsoft and Nintendo's gaming consoles. The PS3 though hasn't unloaded it's trapped door....until Now!

Much like the iPod, the PS3 now has a New Ad Campaign focusing on their exclusive Titles and the systems ability to playback Blu-ray Disc Movies right at the start of the Holidays, not to mention having many "Marquee" titles coming every Tuesday until the end of the Year to help bolster even more advertising.

[Maxell]

The PS3 would be a much better Trojan horse if they had alot more and better games. The PS2 had better games in its start including the grand theft auto series which at first was exclusive (except PC).

[Ascended_Saiyan]

To the OP,

Blu-ray has not been in the lead for a year, yet. That should occur mid-Dec. You stated that Blu-ray was in the lead for over a year. Besides that, I like where you are going with this. I haven't looked at this from an iPod perspective.


To Maxell,

I believe if the PS3 platform have even more games, it wouldn't have been as effective in the format war. Even now, I find myself having to choose between certain movies and games I would like to purchase per month. My Blu-ray/games budget is between $200 to $300 per month. COD4 and Uncharted together take $120+ out of my movie purchases. I wanted to purchase $300 worth of movies this month, but surely you see my problem (120 + 300 = out of my budget). Let's not even talk about Rock Band ($200) and Time Crisis 4 w/ Guncon.

I believe this is why Sony held off on the advertising blitz until this holiday. They needed the time for the entire BDA to get their standalone prices and product offerings to a VERY attractive level. Now, Sony and the rest of the BDA are making their push on ALL fronts (camcorders, standalones, PC drives, HDTVs, BD titles, PS3, etc.). Each company with their own advertising budgets (way more than Toshiba has). They will try to repeat the Blu-ray software sale increase of last year. The goal may be to move from 2:1 to 4:1 (weekly sales) in the US. I think they are looking to increase Blu-ray's lead to 7:1 or more in Europe.

[Blaumann]

Apple could introduce a successful product, because there was/is a broad trend and demand in our society for music in a portable, electronic form aka mp3. Furthermore, imo Apple managed to make a very flashy product (that also can be seen as a status symbol) at the right time, that appealed not only to "enthusiasts", but also to a very large number of "normal" people.

Right now, i am not sure if i see such a trend for HDM.

[stringent]

Apple does what it does well. Aesthetics and advertising. I would still prefer an iPod to a normal MP3 player, why? because of iTunes and the fact I can stick it in my car and hook it up to my stereo.

I think hooking up a PS3 in the car would require a little more work. The fact is though, iPod is here and so are bog standard MP3 players. You can now download off iTunes and have them as MP3 so the Apple exclusivity has gone. Apples products are very expensive for what they are.

You have an interesting perspective.

Although the studios have a fair bit of weight, advertising is the key. The more flashy adverts we have plastering the screens, the more it will filter into the couch potatoes who sit and watch it all the time. Toshiba has done the dirty by giving away players. Those players although cheap will be in peoples houses. It has already caused people to go 'purple'. Its another marketing strategy to get players in the homes. Sure they are cheap rubbish and will probably die in a few months. It will annoy people they will have to spend out $250 on a new A3 or however much they cost in your funny money. Or they will get annoyed because their cheap player doesn't play Spiderman or Pirates.

I do still think Blu-Ray will prevail. Sony have learned from the Betamax mistakes and have so many companies behind them now making their players. But if they need to win, they also need to do some fire sales to get players into the houses.

An animal is at its most dangerous when its about to die.