when will we have our first million seller?

[mov9384ie]

post your prediction for when you think it'll happen and which title.

2008 a possibility? that would impressive as it would be the same length of time it took sd-dvd to sell a million with matrix

sd-dvd launched aug 1997, in jan 2000 1.8 million matrix discs were sold to install base of 4 million players


of course studio movement is a big factor


2008 releases:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

Paramount/Dreamworks
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (should come for both formats or not at all)


New Line
The Golden Compass
Semi-Pro
Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo

Warner
Fred Claus
I Am Legend
Get Smart
The Dark Knight
Speed Racer
10,000 B.C.
The Bucket List

Warner International titles
One Missed Call
The 11th Hour
Fool's Gold
Spring Breakdown
Nights In Rodanthe
Where The Wild Things Are
Harry Potter And The Half Blood Prince
Trick 'R Treat

Sony
Vantage Point
Hancock
Vantage Point
Bond 22
The Other Boleyn Girl
Step Brothers
You Don't Mess with Zohan (Adam Sandler)
Walk Hard (Columbia - Apatow flick)
Angels & Demons ( davinci code follow up )

Fox/MGM
Hitman
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
Wolverine
The Day the Earth Stood Still
The List
Alvin and the Chipmunks
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem
Starship Dave (Eddie Murphy)
X-Files 2 (films in December, supposed to come out in July at theaters)
Jumper
Horton Hears a Who
Dragonball Z live action

Disney
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Wall-E
No Country for Old Men
Enchanted


Lionsgate
Rambo
The Eye
The Forbidden Kingdom (Jet Li/Jacky Chan)

[Mericalis]

Okay, there's a problem with your question...are you asking which one will sell 1M in just Blu-ray, or combined sales (Blu-ray and HD DVD). And are you asking if it will be 1M in the first week or total sales?

[mov9384ie]

Originally Posted by Mericalis

Okay, there's a problem with your question...are you asking which one will sell 1M in just Blu-ray, or combined sales (Blu-ray and HD DVD). And are you asking if it will be 1M in the first week or total sales?

blu-ray only

first to reach 1M total sales

[Mericalis]

More than likely, it will probably be one of our older titles such as 300...it's already up in total sales and will only continue to grow.

[octogon]

First off...2007 had a BUMPER CROP of movies ($8.35B)*, yet it has not surpassed 2006 year end totals ($9.27B)** and is running out of movies to at least match 2006. Reasons? Home Theater purchases, High-Definition (Go Blu!) Content, and high ticket prices are probably contributing factors. Throw in Video Game Purchases (estimated: $10.4B)*** and you see that 1 million seller will be hard, and may not come until 2009. First, prices on hardware must continue to fall ($199 Blu-Ray PC playback drive coming soon!), but more importantly Media Prices need to come down as well (DVDs drop to $14.99 and ALL Blu-Ray Discs need to ring in @ the $19.95 - $24.95 price points)!

In early 2K9 (Q1), I'd expect Blu-Ray to be at least 20.1 million install base (PS3 Included) as prices drop on the 40GB PS3 to between $299.00 - $349.00. The PS3 is important to this equation because of the Gaming Sales Stats. Gaming is growing, and the PS3 is the ONE DEVICE that's designed with the future in mind. M$ will likely develop yet another XBOX System w/ a Blu-Ray drive ( yeah...I SAID BLU-RAY) once prices come down and Blu is the clear winner. "HD-DUD" will still exist, but only as a consolation for all those early adopters in the form of the "Super-BLU" variety (in fact I could see the XBOX adopting this as a continued show of support to HD-DVD ). ONCE this all comes to pass, a "Matrix / 300" type movie will come from a studio that will WOW us all, b/c it was engineered specifically with BLU-RAY in mind (You listening SONY?) from it's HD Filming (Movie plus extra content) to go to HD Video and will be the herald of the new standard of filming!

Short Answer: Sometime in 2009.


* - 2006 Movie Totals
** - 2007 Movie Totals
*** - Video game industry growth still strong

PS
If I had to pick from your list in 2008: SPEED RACER (VERY FAMOUS ANIME Racer, Supposed to be Rated G - so kids will be able to own it-, has the Wachowski Brothers, and will use extensive Green Screen...WAIT A MINUTE, that sounds like the movie I mentioned for 2K9! )

[bluperch]

2009 seems more reasonable. I didn't see any movie on that list that would become a must have purchase (ala Matrix). Except maybe Alvin and the Chipmunks because, you know, people be diggin' on the 'munks.

[Rike255]

With all the publicity its getting, Hitman has a good chance of being one of, if not the best performing box office movie in 2008 I think.
All that it has to do now is actually be a good movie. Lots of people know about Hitman already thanks to the videogame etc.
But I doubt it'll be a million disc seller.

My guess is the same as others, not until 2009. 300 still isn't even close to selling a million copies.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by octogon

First off...2007 had a BUMPER CROP of movies ($8.35B)*, yet it has not surpassed 2006 year end totals ($9.27B)** and is running out of movies to at least match 2006.

While it hasn't surpassed the full 2006 at this point, according to boxofficemojo.com 2007 is 5.1% ahead of 2006 at the same point (through November 18th). It would have to do worse than the last part of 2006 to not end up ahead. We'll see how things go from here, but I think it is most likely that 2007 will do $920 million or more from here to the end (all it would take to match 2006), when 2006 did $1263 million from the equivalent point to the end of 2006. As one example that I think should do well, Disney's Enchanted is at 8 thumbs up and no thumbs down on rottentomatoes.com. Although National Treasure: Book of Secrets is supposed to be Disney's bigger movie this season.

If we were counting both formats and the next Indiana Jones movie was going to get released on both, I think it would have a shot at a million. Although if enough stuff happens to pretty much end the war and it just comes out on one format, maybe it could do it on one.

Also, looks like Angels and Demons has been delayed because of the writer's strike.

--Darin

[octogon]

I think that the movies coming out at the end of the 2007 year (4Q-07) are kewl, but can they all amass close to $1B? If it does, it's gonna squeak by, in spite of the plethora of "gotta see" movies.

[X400]

Batman

Iron Man

James Bond

Indiana Jones


those are the best bets. IronMan is iffy but the trailer makes it look wow



DragonBall - u never know it might actually turn out to be amazing (doubt it though)

[Living Near Shamu]

We need a movie that can really move masses, like Titanic did for box office numbers.

[The Guardian]

I'd say Star Wars.. whenever Lucas decides to release it! By this time next year there should be a big enough install base to get major movies over the 1M mark over the span of a few months.

[Esox50]

Can we wait to answer until we see the new BD standalones and respective price points at CES in January?

I think there's an outside chance, if the movie is as good as I think it will be, that The Dark Knight has a shot to sell 1.0MM copies on Blu-Ray in Fall of 2008. Otherwise, I think it will be in 2009.

[bajor27]

If I knew the current numbers for 300 I'd be more willing to say that, but it's unlikely.

I imagine total Blu sales on that wouldn't be passed 300k so far, and you'd have to have some legs to sell 700k more this far past it's original release.

Indiana Jones if it hits as a Blu exclusive would have a great chance - that's unlikely though.

Narnia also has a good shot

Of what's left, I'd says National Treasure and Golden Compass have a fair shot depending on their box office results, but neither will sell over 1M unless Warner ends the war early next year.

[Leopold BUTTERS]

When New Line announces LOTR for BD and BD players sales go through the roof thanks to LOTR nerds. those will sell 1.00m each

[Terjyn]

I'd say it won't happen for any movie until there is a format winner...thus making the question not possible to answer at this time.

[Vonscoot]

Originally Posted by Leopold BUTTERS

When New Line announces LOTR for BD and BD players sales go through the roof thanks to LOTR nerds. those will sell 1.00m each

I agree. LOTR will move big numbers for HDM.

Another option that has yet to be mentioned is the World of Warcraft movie that Warner/Legendary Pictures is working on. Although there is no definitive time table for it's release in theatres or home video, whenever it does come out (2008/2009?) it should do fairly well. Last numbers I saw had the number of active subscribers to the game at 8 million plus.

[philco_3]

To me right now it most likely will be 300, Casino Royale or one of the Pirates titles that will make it to a million first.

[Teazle]

I have a related question -- does anyone know if any Blu title has completely sold through and made it to a second pressing? (The Fifth Element and Full Metal Jacket don't count.)