Enderle: Will Time Warner’s Move to Blu-ray End HD War?

[Iron Man]

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback224.html

[krinkle]

Originally Posted by Iron Man

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback224.html

When Enderle starts writing articles contemplating Blu-ray's victory, you know the war is almost over.

[Blu-Generation]

Going Blu is the way to go!

[Steverhcp02]

#1 sign WB is going BD and HD DVD is done.....enderle is trumpeting downloads. MSFT shill. Game, Set, Match......just announce it already Warner.

[Blu-Generation]

Warner will not announce it "yet" because they are leaving every party in total suspense.

I know how to play game like this, the final revealing will often blow people away.

[desmond]

m$ shill... rehashing recent posts by a-man.

[krinkle]

I think we have here the debut of the new HD DVD/Microsoft talking points!!

Originally Posted by rob enderle

Why Downloadable Movies are Better

What makes downloadable movie services better for the studios is they don’t have to stock the movies anyplace but digitally. Keep in mind that much of their vast libraries of films haven’t made it to DVD yet, and only a very small fraction to HD. Motion pictures sitting in archives and not on DVD are simply gathering dust, not revenue, but many have such small potential audiences the cost of producing, stamping and stocking a DVD would make reissuing them on a new format an unprofitable endeavor. However, studios have been digitizing these movies for some time now already, just to preserve them, and the incremental cost to make these reasonably high-quality transfers available isn’t that great.

Collectively, the move to downloadable flicks could make a multi-million dollar difference to the bottom line for many studios, and given the size of Warner Brother’s back catalogue, we are talking the high end of a rather impressive revenue range for them.

This new war is just now beginning. When Microsoft puts all its money behind HD downloading, look out for the spin to begin again in earnest.

[Blu-Generation]

HD download can come in 20 years or so from now for all I care.

But at this point, Blu needs to win!

[miokti]

what the FUD is this... He keeps mentioning that DUD has the momentum. based on what? the latest numbers? the latests numbers were from Black Friday and Blu won that weekend (the biggest retail weekend in the US) nearly 3 to 1. How is that momentum on the DUD side? paramount/dreamworks' defection, the release of transformers and the $98 DUD has never won them a week all year. where's this momentum? i don't see any momentum on DUD except momentum going down.

[JadedRaverLA]

Wow!

When Enderle is talking about Warner going BD exclusive... you can bet there's more than just a rumor here.

The fact that there is no longer any debate regarding HD DVD vs. Blu-ray is very telling. They're already gearing up for their REAL battle -- Blu-ray vs. digital downloads.

The end is near -- and we're the victors!

[krinkle]

Originally Posted by miokti

what the FUD is this... He keeps mentioning that DUD has the momentum. based on what? the latest numbers? the latests numbers were from Black Friday and Blu won that weekend (the biggest retail weekend in the US) nearly 3 to 1. How is that momentum on the DUD side? paramount/dreamworks' defection, the release of transformers and the $98 DUD has never won them a week all year. where's this momentum? i don't see any momentum on DUD except momentum going down.

This is how Microsoft will admit defeat.

1) Downplay the importance of HD optical media as a technological relic.

2) Talk up Microsoft's new book, HD downloads.

[NutsAboutPS3]

lol, so his argument is that a move by Warner to HD DVD would end the format war in HD DVD's favour, but a move to Blu-ray would cause a prolonged stalemate, and he says Warner clearly would be better off with a prolonged stalemate so that downloads can take off.

The guy is clearly mad!

[Crackbone]

He's a shill.

Downloads will be coming @ some point, but so will putting a man on Mars. They are full of $hit and they know it.

[jason_grumpy]

She's warming up....

[doctorsteve]

I'm sorry, is this chucklehead actually saying that the momentum has shifted to the DuD side? That the focus and attention in HD media is now on DuD? That Studios have DEFECTED (which usually means left one side and gone to another) to the DuD side?

Who IS this wrinkled TURD???

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

Wow!

When Enderle is talking about Warner going BD exclusive... you can bet there's more than just a rumor here.

The fact that there is no longer any debate regarding HD DVD vs. Blu-ray is very telling. They're already gearing up for their REAL battle -- Blu-ray vs. digital downloads.

The end is near -- and we're the victors!

Microsoft and HD Toshiba destroy their own HD product. Players and software. Onkyo and other manufactureres are going to bite the dust on DUD players. Good lessons learned for any future company that is thinking about a collaboration with Microsoft in regards to Digital Downloads. Having a butt load of money, power and a delusional sense of world domination does not equate to success. (Hitler anyone?) As with Blu-ray, the people made their choice in their preferred format for HD viewing. Microsoft can not force this venture down people's throat. The fact is, is that 95% of us want hard copies of movies. We do not want our privacy invaded as to who is watching what when. I say let them try and waste billions more on another failed venture in market place dominance. The bottom line is what the people want. Not what Microsoft wants.

[Sean4000]

Originally Posted by jason_grumpy

She's warming up....

I nearly fell on to the floor after seeing this. lol.

[miokti]

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

Microsoft and HD Toshiba destroy their own HD product. Players and software. Onkyo and other manufactureres are going to bite the dust on DUD players. Good lessons learned for any future company that is thinking about a collaboration with Microsoft in regards to Digital Downloads. Having a butt load of money, power and a delusional sense of world domination does not equate to success. (Hitler anyone?) As with Blu-ray, the people made their choice in their preferred format for HD viewing. Microsoft can not force this venture down people's throat. The fact is, is that 95% of us want hard copies of movies. We do not want our privacy invaded as to who is watching what when. I say let them try and waste billions more on another failed venture in market place dominance. The bottom line is what the people want. Not what Microsoft wants.

Toshiba is hurting itself by lowering that price of it's product, alienating other would be CE's because they can't under-sell Toshiba. Also, they market DUD players actively as SD up-converters. If you tell people that your players can magically play SD's so that they look like HD, why would they bother buying DUD discs? They'll just keep up-converting their SD collection.

[darinp2]

I tried to add some comments there, but they didn't show up. Might have been too long or they need to approve comments (in which case they probably won't be put up). Anyway, here is what I tried to add:

Rob: "... and since players retailing at aggressive price points are sold out anyway, the market is manufacturing-constrained."

I'm sorry, but you are working off false information and this is one reason your analysis is flawed. Have you been out in the real world and checked stores? I have checked 2 Best Buy stores in the Seattle area since before Thanksgiving up until today and there have always been stacks of HD DVD players (and Blu-ray players). Despite the attractive prices on the HD-A3 $199 Black Friday week, then $299 with 3 extra free movies, then $249, neither of those 2 stores have come even close to selling out. The Best Buy in Bellevue, WA had 41 HD-A3s and 63 HD-A30s today (and they seem to be selling slowly from my periodic checks every few days). They also have 153 of the XBOX360 add-ons in a huge stack. The Best Buy in Lynnwood, WA had 32 HD-A3s, 43 HD-A30s, and 26 XBOX360 add-ons. This claim of the market for these being manufacturing constrained right now is a fantasy. Wiis are manufacturing constrained. HD DVD players look to be far from it, and so do Blu-ray players (although price drops to $299 and under may move them more in that direction).

On the Blu-ray side the Lynnwood Best Buy sold out of the Samsung BD-P1400 after the price dropped to $299. The Bellevue one had 6 left today (from 20 six days ago). That same Samsung BD-P1400 is $280 at Costco and $270 on Amazon.com.

As far as your claim about HD DVD sales going vertical, for Black Friday week they reportedly sold about 35k standalones to 21k Blu-ray standalones. But PS3s look to have sold 150k or more, so even if those only have 20% of the attach rate of standalones, looks like HD DVD may not have even done better for hardware that will sell software in that week (we didn't get the figures for XBOX360 add-ons). And the week before Blu-ray standalones outsold HD DVD standalones according to the numbers in that report about Black Friday week going 62:37 to HD DVD for standalones and how much of an improvement that was for each side over the previous week. It is also unlikely that HD DVD kept even close to that 35k pace in the week after Thanksgiving, given that their prices went back closer to MSRP, while PS3 sales likely stayed above 100k for that week. If someones wants to argue with the 20% effective rate for the PS3 as far as selling movies, take a look at what the software ratios have been this year and what the hardware situation was for each side in the US. 20% is likely on the low side, unless Blu-ray standalones sell more discs per player than HD DVD standalones. People at Warner are savvy enough about business to know that PS3s don't count as nothing, since they obviously sell movies (or HD DVD would be selling more movies). A person who is going to buy 10 movies a year and gets a PS3 to play them isn't worth less than a person who is going to buy 5 movies a year and buys a standalone to play them. The PS3 just has a lower average rate, but way more hardware units, so sells more next gen movie discs than any single model of standalone player (including any model of HD DVD player from Toshiba).

Sorry, but anybody who thinks that Warner and New Line (Time Warner isn't likely to let one go without the other) going to Blu-ray exclusively "would once again balance the field" must not be watching the field very closely. The field is balanced toward Blu-ray right now, as evidenced by disc sales (which are about the best measure of how many players are being used, whether they are multifunction players like the PS3 or not). Warner and New Line going to Blu-ray definitely moves that balance even more toward the side leading and away from the side trailing (HD DVD). They would be left with just Paramount, Dreamworks, and Universal as their majors, against Sony, Disney, Fox, Warner, and New Line. Even with Warner favoring HD DVD (releasing things on there which haven't been released on Blu-ray) HD DVD couldn't even get to a tie for software sales. Losing Warner and New Line while trailing as far as HD DVD does in Japan, Europe, and also the US would be pretty close to a death blow. Yes, Warner cares about making money and a decision to go to Blu-ray wouldn't be to kill off the high definition disc market, it would be to take the leader and push them even faster, while leaving the currently trailing format behind. The idea that Warner would want to kill both formats because they care about money makes no sense whatsoever.

You may disagree with what I said, but please at least retract your claim about the manufacturing constraint right now or tell people where these players are sold out. Circuit City and Best Buy look to have stock in the vast majority of their stores from checking some different zip codes on their sites and I could take pictures of stacks of those Toshiba players for sale around the Seattle area if that would help.

--Darin

[davidPS3]

Wow, a picture says a thousand words.