What about Warner? Part the Second

[blindcat87]

In the US different corporations run on different fiscal years. Time-Warner's fiscal year matches the calendar year. 1st quarter starts in January.

Chris

Originally Posted by stringent

We can speculate till the cows come home. Until there is a press release, or something firm, WB will remain neutral.

I DO hope they go Blu exclusive soon though. This is my personal preference (as I am sure its everyones!) I doubt it will be at CES, and as they are attending both HD-DVD and Blu conferences, it makes a better standing to do something at the end of this tax year (April in UK, is it the same for the rest of the world?!) so they start afresh. Then again, they could want to make money out of both sets of people. Surely if they released movies on both formats, they would make more money than just one.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by stringent

We can speculate till the cows come home. Until there is a press release, or something firm, WB will remain neutral.

I DO hope they go Blu exclusive soon though. This is my personal preference (as I am sure its everyones!) I doubt it will be at CES, and as they are attending both HD-DVD and Blu conferences, it makes a better standing to do something at the end of this tax year (April in UK, is it the same for the rest of the world?!) so they start afresh. Then again, they could want to make money out of both sets of people. Surely if they released movies on both formats, they would make more money than just one.

I humbly have to disagree with you.

Just because they are attending the HD DVD press conference doesn't mean anything. Many different reasons that they are doing this but going blu-ray excslusive at CES.

1. Might not be saying anything, just standing up there and getting introduced, this makes it less obvious they are dropping the format the next day. This prevents them from getting bombarded with questions about why they are at one conference and not the other. Prevents irrationalism and rioting.

2. Reduce the damage that the rumors out of Lionsgate, Fox, and their own execs have caused them. Im sure they were getting e-mails and phone calls from HD DVD fanboys about it. By announcing they will be at the HD DVD press conference it really calmed down a lot of afraid HD DVD fanboys.

3. Being a man, looking HD DVD in the face and announcing they had a very successful time with HD DVD, but they are severing ties with the format.

4. Just want to recap Q4 sales, then sit down quietly and announcing the bombshell teh next day at the blu-ray confernce. This also takes into considerationg 1 and 2.

5. Announcing they are going to be at the HD DVD conference, this takes into consideration point #2, and then a few hours before say they have had a sudden change of plans. At this point there will be 24 hours of massive speculationa and hysteria, instead of weeks of it, cleared up the next morning when they announce blu-ray exclusivity.

I also want to point out that Paramount did not have an easy time over the next after their sellout week dealing with blu boys. We had Blades of Glory ripped out from under us and we got Transformers cancelled on us too. Warner is probably going to try to limit the damage for themselves. By having the release schedule they way they do, they won't be ripping out any titles from anybody, they won't have to waste money pressing titles and then recalling them, it will be a lot easier on them if they just get it done with at CES vs. later in the year.

Also, HD DVD is obviously getting very desperate. WB certainly does not want to see, consumers waste their money on products because they got them relatively cheap, and then say, oops, sorry, bye bye, as this will also cause more damage to themselves vs. if they just severed ties with HD DVD at CES.

WB avg. releasing 2 titles a week in 07. Having no titles for 5 weeks straight is way, way too fishy for something not to be going on.

Keep in mind New Line wants to go blu-ray because of region coding too. Which certainly has influenced warner's decision.

Penton is talking very positively right now. Basically the only thing that could possibly get in the way is a very large check. Which given M$ f'ups with the 360 last year, their big payoffs to paramount/dreamworks and free encodings of all things vc-1, they are going to have a hard time getting shareholders on board with half million dollar payoffs to just neutralize the war. Toshiba is in hot water too over free discs and heavily subsidized players. They have spent a lot of money and neither one can really afford that much money to try to woo WB. Plus, WB has already rejected their offers once. I think its pretty much over. The fat lady hasn't sung, but she's got her dress over her corsset and has just left her dressing room.

Their new CEO specifically mentioned embracing blu-ray as a way to deal with declining dvd sales.

They aren't stupid. They know what MS is trying to do. They aren't going to take chump change and really thats all MS or Toshiba could offer them, for MS to turn around 1 year later after consumers are sick of blu-ray vs. hd dvd and niether has been adopted, and convientlely announce that it no longer find HD DVD finanically profitable and has instead focused its attention on its Live Downloading service. It already has more studios supporting Live HD downloads than supporting HD DVD and feels like this is the way to go in the future. All of the sudden WB just screwed herself out of 10 years of royalty profits for short term chump change.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

I..
5. Announcing they are going to be at the HD DVD conference, this takes into consideration point #2, and then a few hours before say they have had a sudden change of plans. At this point there will be 24 hours of massive speculationa and hysteria, instead of weeks of it, cleared up the next morning when they announce blu-ray exclusivity.

To my knowledge Warner have NOT announced anything with regard to their CES plans (it's a hardware event anyway, so why would they). The HD DVD promo group has an event invitation with Warners name on it, but so what?

If I missed WB's announcements for CES then I'd appreciate a link to that, but AFAIK no such thing exists.

[daringdogcow]

Originally Posted by jon s

the scenarios for a final showdown could be endless. for all we know, M$ could be courting disney or fox to switch sides (i am NOT saying this is true, but just as a possibility)

I don't think Disney's a real possibility. Steve Jobs has more DIS stock than an other individual shareholder, and he's on the company's board. But you're right, anything can happen, at this point.

[WickyWoo]

The likelyhood of Disney or Fox splitting the BLu camp is so low it:s not even funny. Both studios have HUGE investments, both financially (Disney, insupport of the features they find valuable and intellectually (Fox paid for a large chunk of BD+) that to be perfectly honest, I`d expect sony to go before Fox

[stringent]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

I humbly have to disagree with you.

Humble disagreement accepted and noted. You do raise some good points though.

[gandley]

going by the info that poped up in the insiders thread, i think we are in final phase for a CES announment. which way still is open.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by edge

For both Blu and DUD ? That is strange, heh, maybe they stop support on both

Actually the Invasion is Jan 29th, and there are a couple of New Line releases as well.

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

Their new CEO specifically mentioned embracing blu-ray as a way to deal with declining dvd sales.

That comment was made a long time ago, October, 2005. Not sure how relevant that is now, or that it should even be quoted anymore. A lot has happened since then.
http://businessweek.com/technology/c...9074_tc024.htm

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by blu2

Actually the Invasion is Jan 29th, and there are a couple of New Line releases as well.

Actually there are no New Line releases for HD DVD in January. However, there are 2 'timed' exclusives for Blu-ray in January.

Is it significant that there are no WB/NL releases for HD DVD until Jan 29? Hard to say but it does give Warner a rapid exit option (the same one P/DW used).

[sj001]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

Actually there are no New Line releases for HD DVD in January. However, there are 2 'timed' exclusives for Blu-ray in January.

Is it significant that there are no WB/NL releases for HD DVD until Jan 29? Hard to say but it does give Warner a rapid exit option (the same one P/DW used).

Segueing off of the... when was the last time WB had an almost 5-6 week window with NO releases on HD at all? We will see them go Blu very soon!

[MerrickG]

I posted this in the insiders section and I will post it here as well:

I will say one thing:

If the BDA lets Warner get away then they will have proven that they are an incompetent organization that has no business defining the future for HD media.
Seriously, if they cant collectively beat a supposed $400 million offer from Toshiba, then why should we as consumers have ANY faith that they can hold onto Fox, Lionsgate and eventually Disney?

Seriously, everything the BDA has worked for is on the line here. All the Nielsen wins and PS3 sales will mean NOTHING if they allow Warner to go HD-DVD exclusive.

I really hope that all this talk about Microsoft wanting downloads is not hiding the the possibility that the BDA is getting very nervous and they are starting to "spin" this already in case they lose out.

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but the fact of the matter is bluray is toast if Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive.

[Deciazulado]

[GaS]

I'll start worrying about meetings with MS/TOSH and Warner when Penton starts hinting of trouble.

If warner goes red, then they go red. Life goes on.

[blindcat87]

Oh, yeah, Amir is helping the sneaky BD insiders cover their butts and brace us for disappointment. If you want to know how Blu insiders brace us for when they really think or know real setbacks are coming research back to the time of the Paramount thing and see P-Man's attempt to give a head's up that everyone missed.

It is amazing how things always run in the same cycles around here. News pops up that looks good for BD. Insiders say that things are looking good. People say that is great and discuss. A couple of people discuss the possible ways this could go wrong, some of them go to other forums and read the other side discussing how the smurfs or whatever term they choose are deluding themselves. Folks with a history of posting pure negativity point out that the BDA has never done anything right and that we are doomed. Then normally reasonable members begin posting how this is it and we are being set up for doom and it is all over.

It grows worse because the insiders will not post a 100% iron clad guarantee that nothing will go awry and other promises that anyone would be a fool to make. They don't answer questions that anyone with a brain could see that answering or going any further in answering would get them fired, so they must be bracing us for the horror to come. They didn't reassure us every 5 minutes, so it is doom. What do you want? The questions were answered. If you actually comprehend English and pay attention to the words coming out of their keyboards and better yet pay attention to the behavior of insiders on the other side, then perhaps you wouldn't need to start popping valium and Maalox every 10 minutes.

Pause, take a deep breath, actually read what the insiders have already said, note that they have more important things to do during this extremely busy time than to repeat themselves every 5 minutes when people's attention span expires and they need reassurance.

The positive outcome is not guaranteed. But this cyclone of negativity has a very definite pattern and I think if people reread things they will see the pattern and the downward spiral and realize that they are mostly doing it to themselves.

The most likely negative possibility would be WB staying neutral. Going red exclusibe is not a win for HD DVD. It evenly divides the industry on the software side and doesn't change the hardware side. It does not remove any of the reasons other studios have against HD DVD and if you look at things from those studios perspective, those problems are insurmountable for HD DVD without a major paradigm shift. The financial and self protection reasons as well as reasons of industry polotics have been spelled out a hundred times. You don't have to accept them, that is your perrogative. But I believe that if you look at the entire picture, tht it is obvious that an evenly divided software market equals doom or niching of the HDM market. You can disagree, but I see no evidence other than blanket statements of "I see no reason why it wouldn't go this way" as the only evidence in support of this view. Most importantly, I think WB can see this as the likely outcome of such a decision. And, for the hundredth time, they see the slide in income from DVD and the need to get things going fast in HDM. They have seen, from the perspective of a content provider, what just transpired with Wal-Mart's download service. They know that Apple also wants content providers for downloads and that, while neither company's model for home player is very mature, Apple has a massive advantage in portables. No matter how much MS tries to play things off, you can bet Apple sees through this move and isn't going to let the download side of this event go without a fight. I could go on and on and on, but it has all been said.

There is no guarantee until the press releases fly, but if you actually look at the whole picture, there is a load more evidence in favor of optimism, a lot less evidence in favor of a less favorable outcome, and about diddle over squat, unless you want to start counting random fanboys or Amir and companys statements that HDM is over as the word of truth, in favor of the doomsday scenario that suddenly popped up after the insiders, as they said they were going to due to work and such, went offline.

Just my opinion of course. But seriously, look at the pattern of chatter following every major insider news development since the Paramount trauma and you will see this same pattern emerge again and again. Thinkk about that. [

merrick97, given that my little rant here got bigger than I intended, I want to make sure you know that I am not by any means trying to say that you are any kind of FUD poster, chicken littles, or other personal negative things. Too much personal negative crap has been happening of late and I don't want any misunderstandings here. I read your posts and see that you are a poster that tries to consider things from multiple viewpoints and who thinks before he posts. I just happen to disagree with you here and have seen this pattern emerge and a lot of very smart and logical posters get sucked into it again and again. All other areas where I disagree with you here considered, I totally agree with you that the BDA must not let WB go and that they absolutely need to convince them that neutrality for much longer would be nearly as disasterous as going red. I just really believe that the BDA does understand this, and more importantly that WB is not as dense as some seem to fear they are. They are, financially, one of the best off studios right now, they already refused one bribe, they have a new CEO of the parent company that has a very practical and realistic outlook, and they also have a track record of being one of the most independent studios around. I don't think that the studio that, on multiple occasions turned down help in mastering their BDs in house because they don't like giving up control are likely to want to make any deals that give MS any inroads on their ability to control their properties in any way shape or form. Particularly when they have a bad history with MS and a history of making moves to counteract MSs power in any market in which they have dealings with MS. Anything could happen, a comet could slam into my house tomorrow. But I think that the fact that the entire West Coast could fall into the ocean tonight or that a new island could rise out of the middle of the Atlantic at any moment is the main reason to not make a definite statement about the outcome before the outcome happens.

chris

Originally Posted by merrick97

I posted this in the insiders section and I will post it here as well:

I will say one thing:

If the BDA lets Warner get away then they will have proven that they are an incompetent organization that has no business defining the future for HD media.
Seriously, if they cant collectively beat a supposed $400 million offer from Toshiba, then why should we as consumers have ANY faith that they can hold onto Fox, Lionsgate and eventually Disney?

Seriously, everything the BDA has worked for is on the line here. All the Nielsen wins and PS3 sales will mean NOTHING if they allow Warner to go HD-DVD exclusive.

I really hope that all this talk about Microsoft wanting downloads is not hiding the the possibility that the BDA is getting very nervous and they are starting to "spin" this already in case they lose out.

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but the fact of the matter is bluray is toast if Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive.

[Rustmonsteru]

Originally Posted by GaS

If warner goes red, then they go red. Life goes on.

Thank you and well said. I'm so sick of people whining. As far as I'm concerned everything Warner, be it pro blu or pro red, is conjecture and unworthy of my energy till Warner themselves expressly say it. I will continue to purchase the movies I like from blu-supporting companies. I will continue to do so regardless of what Warner decides. It's as simple as that.

[Bullseye]

Originally Posted by Sonar5

That comment was made a long time ago, October, 2005. Not sure how relevant that is now, or that it should even be quoted anymore. A lot has happened since then.
http://businessweek.com/technology/c...9074_tc024.htm

I still think its positive.

[Dalese]

To Bullseye, I am in agreement with you on this if the article is accurate. Having a past history of some rationality in his business decisions would definately IMO play in blu's favor.

Originally Posted by Bullseye

I still think its positive.

The question is what HD-DVD baggage needs to be overcome to get to the right decision now?

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

Your dead wrong! If Warner goes red everyone losses since the market will be split 50/50.

I know that this is a common notion around here.

Unfortunately it really isn't true.

When you say the market will be split 50/50 if WB goes HD DVD exclusive, this is based purely on the number of studios supporting each format.

The problem with this is the fact that WB releases more movies than other studios, and they tend to be the movies that do very well. This is why most people say that WB means everything in this war.

And I agree with that.

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

I know that this is a common notion around here.

Unfortunately it really isn't true.

When you say the market will be split 50/50 if WB goes HD DVD exclusive, this is based purely on the number of studios supporting each format.

The problem with this is the fact that WB releases more movies than other studios, and they tend to be the movies that do very well. This is why most people say that WB means everything in this war.

And I agree with that.

Not to mention the possibility of other studios and or retail reacting to WB.