Studio Support for each format.... analysis

[xmositox]

Using the StudioSummary list from the charts at high def digest (NOTE: you must select all movie from the pick box at the top of the page), you get a feel for the count of movies available for purchase from each studio.....

I sumed up the numbers and here they are...

HD DVD
Paramount/Dreamworks = 50
Universal = 147
Warner/NewLine = 139

Blu Ray
Disney/Miramax/BuenaVista/Touch = 62
Fox/MGM = 63
Lionsgate = 36
Paramount/Dreamworks = 33
Sony = 118
Warner/NewLine = 110


As you can see, taking Warner from HD DVD removes ~40% of their movies.
whereas taking Paramount from us barely made a dent - less then 15%(albeit a big dent with transformers)

Even with Universal and Paramount, HD DVD has nothing because Paramount barely counts as a supporting studio (Especially considering that they stated at CES that they wouldn't be annoucing any new movies at this time)

Come May, barring any new titanic development, HD DVD has nothing

<I am sure that there might be some missing titles which would skew the numbers, they should be >90% accurate which is sufficient for this discusion>

[Slec]

Good Job! This is the key to the whole equation. With 40% of their titles gone, you can expect 35-45% of their sales revenue to disappear with it (never quite a straight percentage). The sales figures for BD will dwarf, moving to 3:1 or even higher. It's tough to say when this will start because WB is leaving HD discs in the market until sold through. (My guess is May was picked because based on the current rate of sale, that's when their current outstanding orders will be gone through). Plus between now and May, there will be a marked increase in BD player/PS3 sales. The Writings on the wall, contracts or not HD-DVD is done.

Like everyone else, I'd rather see this happen earlier rather than later, but the information you've shown is just the tip of the iceberg as to why all this discussion will be moot at 2009 CES.

[darkpoet25]

Originally Posted by xmositox

Using the StudioSummary list from the charts at high def digest (NOTE: you must select all movie from the pick box at the top of the page), you get a feel for the count of movies available for purchase from each studio.....

I sumed up the numbers and here they are...

HD DVD
Paramount/Dreamworks = 50
Universal = 147
Warner/NewLine = 139

Blu Ray
Disney/Miramax/BuenaVista/Touch = 62
Fox/MGM = 63
Lionsgate = 36
Paramount/Dreamworks = 33
Sony = 118
Warner/NewLine = 110


As you can see, taking Warner from HD DVD removes ~40% of their movies.
whereas taking Paramount from us barely made a dent - less then 15%(albeit a big dent with transformers)

Even with Universal and Paramount, HD DVD has nothing because Paramount barely counts as a supporting studio (Especially considering that they stated at CES that they wouldn't be annoucing any new movies at this time)

Come May, barring any new titanic development, HD DVD has nothing

<I am sure that there might be some missing titles which would skew the numbers, they should be >90% accurate which is sufficient for this discusion>

Man talk about a big blow. Just think what would happen in Universal were to go nuetral. I think the war would be just about wrapped up by that point, if not done.

[stockstar1138]

thanks, ive been meaning to do this, saved me a lot of time.

i think one thing we have to realize too it that warner provided quality titles to HD DVD. Universal released a lot of titles, but very few were of good quality. Also, Universal released a lot of titles last year to help keep HD DVD a float. I highly doubt that they will be releasing 100+ titles again. Probably more like 40 and thats the best case scenario. I think paramount/dreamworks will release less than 25 (itll be all day-and-daters, with a few catalogs that they had ready to go). HD DVD is going to have less than 65 movie releases from major studios this year. out of that they might get 2-3 blockbuster movies and this is all speculating worst case secneaio they stay with hd dvd. its going to get really ugly.

i just have to wonder when HMM or Nielsen is no longer going to provide us with weekly sales data, as 89:11, 91:9, 86:14 weeks are going to be pretty pointless.

[xmositox]

Well lets take the studios out of their respective equations

HD DVD
Paramount/Dreamworks = 50
Universal = 147
Warner/NewLine = 139 -- REMOVE

197 titles

Blu Ray
Disney/Miramax/BuenaVista/Touch = 62
Fox/MGM = 63
Lionsgate = 36
Paramount/Dreamworks = 33 -- REMOVE
Sony = 118
Warner/NewLine = 110

389 titles


That is a ration of almost exactly 2 to 1.... We can expect release ratios of that in the coming months especially come May... take into account that similar movies sold between a ratio of 1.2-1.8 in favor a Bly Ray to that of HD DVD (so for the sake of argument assume 1.5 Blu to HD) then we get a sales ration of 3. Also add the fact that players sales will favor Blu Ray even more, we easily have a software sales ratio of about 3-4 to 1. so expect constant 75%-80% sales ration in the coming months.... We should even expect it this month since HD DVD isn't releasing anything of consequence until next month.....

[Zazou]

Are you still sticking with your Universal prediciton Stockstar? That would certainly change the whole outlook.

[Evil Engineer]

Originally Posted by Slec

Good Job! This is the key to the whole equation. With 40% of their titles gone, you can expect 35-45% of their sales revenue to disappear with it (never quite a straight percentage). The sales figures for BD will dwarf, moving to 3:1 or even higher. It's tough to say when this will start because WB is leaving HD discs in the market until sold through. (My guess is May was picked because based on the current rate of sale, that's when their current outstanding orders will be gone through). Plus between now and May, there will be a marked increase in BD player/PS3 sales. The Writings on the wall, contracts or not HD-DVD is done.

Like everyone else, I'd rather see this happen earlier rather than later, but the information you've shown is just the tip of the iceberg as to why all this discussion will be moot at 2009 CES.

I think we'll see the effect on the sales ratios much earlier than May.

Who in their right mind will buy a HD DVD now? The nails are in the coffin and it's currently being lowered into the ground. All that remains is to put the earth back on top. Blu-ray will probably sail straight through 3:1 and head up to 4:1 and above.

And I think Warners have said May for no other reason than that is when their current contract to supply movies in HD DVD runs out.