Barron's Article

[atrofast]

Found this at barrons.com (subscription from UBS Investment Research) posted relevant parts here for everybody's reading.

Among studios, the main beneficiaries are Disney, News Corp. and Time Warner by order of magnitude. Disney will not only benefit from its current new-release- franchise pipeline but also from a catalog of animated films that is well suited to high definition.

News Corp.'s Fox studios and Time Warner are next. News Corp has a relatively higher revenue mix from home entertainment (film and TV) with 12% of sales compared with Time Warner at 9% in 2007.

All three studios are already committed to Blu-ray (Time Warner by the first half of 2008). Viacom's Paramount has benefited from dual-format distribution in the past, but since its recent switch to HD DVD only, the upside will not be as high for similar titles as Blu-ray studios. We would expect Viacom to reconsider its decision.

We are forecasting shipments of Blu-ray players to increase from 206,000 in 2006 to 32 million in 2011, a compound annual growth rate of 174%. We are forecasting shipments of roughly six million players in 2008, up roughly 250% from 2007. We estimate that by 2011, Blu-ray players should account for roughly 20% of all DVD player shipments.

Hope this hasn't been posted yet, if so I apologize.

[seto]

That is some very positive forecasting. Let's hope that projection is right. ^^b

[Seretur]

Very good, serious analysis. Vastly more important than most of the blog posts that usually get quoted.

[atrofast]

Yes, investment analysis try to base more of their opinion on facts and numbers than bloggers
When you are running billions of dollars it doesn't fly if you invest in stock by a whim!

[CptGreedle]

Although I am really liking those numbers, I hope that after the digital TV requirement is out in 2009, the numbers will jump even more and BD will make up more than just 20%. Still, in such a huge market, 20% is a lot.