PS3 Sales in Perspective

[bajor27]

Originally Posted by Grisle

I disagree...the PS3 will win just like the PS2 did. Obviously all the consoles can exist and do well respectively, but unlike the other systems the PS3's potential is great. This seems to be a point of contention for PS3/BD haters...they don't want to look at the validity of the potential of both the PS3 and BD. As time goes by the dominance of the PS3 will grow further from the other consoles. The 360 is a great machine and the only other problem besides not having some sort of HD drive in the machine is the failure rate...other than those I believe it's a great console...it just won't be able to compete with the PS3 in time. I'm interested to see how soon MS puts out their next console...the 360 had a 1 year head start and I think the next one will try to have even more of a lead.

I don't quite understand how you disagree with my point that it is CURRENTLY more profitable to put out games on a 360 by saying that IN THE FUTURE the PS3 will win.

I also agree that the PS3 will end up beating the 360 by the end of their respective lifecycles, but it certainly won't be in the landslide that was last console generation IMO. I see all 3 systems having a fairly equal share share of the market in 3-4 years time. Something like 40:30:30 (I don't care to guess at what's where)

[Blu-Generation]

Originally Posted by Grisle

the 360 had a 1 year head start and I think the next one will try to have even more of a lead.

That's the problem, lead isn't always a good thing.

HD-DVD came before Blu-ray and it lost.

360 came before PS3 and it got the RROD issue.

The next gen xbox will come out with the most advance tech, but then once the PS4 comes out, it'll be even more advance. The cycle continue.

[saprano]

Originally Posted by Grisle

I disagree...the PS3 will win just like the PS2 did. Obviously all the consoles can exist and do well respectively, but unlike the other systems the PS3's potential is great. This seems to be a point of contention for PS3/BD haters...they don't want to look at the validity of the potential of both the PS3 and BD. As time goes by the dominance of the PS3 will grow further from the other consoles. The 360 is a great machine and the only other problem besides not having some sort of HD drive in the machine is the failure rate...other than those I believe it's a great console...it just won't be able to compete with the PS3 in time. I'm interested to see how soon MS puts out their next console...the 360 had a 1 year head start and I think the next one will try to have even more of a lead.

thers a thread on here somewere that talks about ms failure rate on the 360's. somebody posted an interview with somebody thats works there, and he said the reson why there are so many bad systems is because ms didn't check every system to see wich was bad.they were so worried about beating sony to the market first that they didn't care about if the chipset was any good. they would worry about it later. ill find the story.........so they will launch the next xbox first, you can be sure of that.

[BluRayExplosion]

Originally Posted by aphex

I don't really mind all the people throwing false statistics at the ps3 game sales. It's just like fighting with hddvd fanboys, they'll keep saying what they're saying until they're proven wrong. By the end of the year, it's gonna be a joke to say that the 360 is the better system. The ps3 sales are gonna catch up worldwide and in the US.

Inaccurate. Being proven wrong has absolutely no impact on their ramblings.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by mightypen

The first reason is that the media you are looking at is US based, thus will inevitably have a US centric view. The second reason is the lack of real numbers from Europe.

They don't quote corporate earnings in domestic terms. The primary focus is always TOTAL earnings. Global companies should be analyzed on a global basis. Domestic analysis is a relic of the past.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by bajor27

That's funny because I expected Blu-ray players to outsell the lower priced HD-DVD players.

Really, really lame comeback considering all of the extenuating circumstances. You know, the whole format war thing? Consider your point invalidated.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by bajor27

And again with games, the only exclusive PS3 title that interests me this year is Little Big Planet, where as the 360 has Fable 2, Gears 2, and Too Human which all really interest me.

Oh, and I'll have to find the data again, but I'm quite sure the PS3 has the lowest attach rates of the 3 systems in the US (when looking at 2007 yearly software sales). I believe the numbers were something like 12:1 for Xbox, 10:1 for Wii, and 8:1 for PS3.

We were all trying to talk about data but you are spewing opinion. Honestly I don't care what games YOU think are good in the FUTURE... the discussion was on the skewing of actual data from actual sales.

As far as attach rates, I showed sales ratios for all games in the Top 50 that are on both systems while you are throwing out numbers from your head.. and the numbers that you are trying to recall have been tweaked a lot by manipulators. Naturally '07 attach rates will be lower for a system that is earlier in its launch cycle because a higher proportion of the install base in new in that given year and therefore has been in the cycle... to get true '07 attach rates you should take total s/w sales on that console and divide by AVERAGE INSTALL BASE (avg 12/31/06 & 12/31/07 install base or do monthly) and NOT ending install base. You wouldn't get it because you;re not analytical and you buy what the spinners are selling you.

[Clark Kent]

This generation of consoles is going to look different than any other generation. I really believe it is going to be something like a 40/30/30 split worldwide with the Wii coming out on top. It's clear that Sony and Microsoft are fighting over the same customer and Nintendo has abandoned the traditional gamer for the casual gamer. Going forward I expect the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 on a regular basis. The limitations of the Xbox 360 design have become apparent. The only reason it has done well so far is that it captured the extreme FPS hardcore gamer segment in America by rushing the product to market. As more and more must have games show up on the PS3 that crowd will pick up a PS3 also.

[bajor27]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

Really, really lame comeback considering all of the extenuating circumstances. You know, the whole format war thing? Consider your point invalidated.

Right. It's completely reasonable to see a higher priced system doing better in a format war but completely unreasonable to think a higher priced system could do better in a console war. That's rational thinking. I'll consider my point invalidated when you actually give me evidence to prove it is.

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

We were all trying to talk about data but you are spewing opinion. Honestly I don't care what games YOU think are good in the FUTURE... the discussion was on the skewing of actual data from actual sales.

As far as attach rates, I showed sales ratios for all games in the Top 50 that are on both systems while you are throwing out numbers from your head.. and the numbers that you are trying to recall have been tweaked a lot by manipulators. Naturally '07 attach rates will be lower for a system that is earlier in its launch cycle because a higher proportion of the install base in new in that given year and therefore has been in the cycle... to get true '07 attach rates you should take total s/w sales on that console and divide by AVERAGE INSTALL BASE (avg 12/31/06 & 12/31/07 install base or do monthly) and NOT ending install base. You wouldn't get it because you;re not analytical and you buy what the spinners are selling you.

Many people have stated their opinion in this thread on the games coming out this year - certainly not just me. The only reason I brought up mine in fact was to counter some peoples' opinions that the PS3 has better exclusives this year and thus would surely take over. I was simply pointing out that not everyone feels that the exclusives for the PS3 were better.

Again why should I have to average the numbers just to make PS3 look better when I don't have to average the wii numbers? I understand what you're trying to do, but no matter how you slice it, more units are being sold on the 360. Regardless of install base, as long as the 360 can sell more units of software, big titles will continue to be developed for it and it should be able to stay competitive with the PS3 which I feel supports my belief that it won't be a landslide victory like it was for the PS2. My only one fear in that belief is due to the uncertain lifespan of the PS3. It's hard to judge how long it will be before the PS4. I know Sony has a 10 year plan but it may be hard to stay competitive if both the nextBox and a Wii 2 are released. If it can stick to it's 10 year plan though, it would only make sense that it sell more in 10 years than the 360 and wii do in 4 or 5. And I truly think that the PS3 could last that long if it didn't have to worry about it's competitors putting out new product.

Once again, I'd like to point out that I have never said I don't think the PS3 will end up winning this generation. I don't really know exactly where it will end up, but I expect things to be pretty equal by the end of their life cycles so it won't really matter.

And I apologize for not having the hard data for the attach rates earlier. I was at work and didn't really have time to find a link. I originally heard the information in a Podcast, but I was able to find a link with similar info.

I was incorrect in my earlier statement though. The attach rate number I heard before must have been for just one month, but in any event the overall attach rates for the PS3 are still lower than both the 360 and Wii as of the end of last year.

[Cordre69]

It is annoying that companies have to consider the install base, rather than going by power/potential alone. If companies release on both systems and there aren't any advantages for the PS3, then why WOULD people get the PS3 if they already have a 360? It takes games, features, AND availability to win a console war. And hell, Wii is winning the war without availability...
I know it's logical and companies need money to continue making games at ALL. I'm not naive enough to question that. But Blu came second, yet companies made a choice to go with it over HD. We need game companies to do the same. Let's stick with forward thinking, people!

[Blu-Generation]

Originally Posted by bajor27

but in any event the overall attach rates for the PS3 are still lower than both the 360 and Wii as of the end of last year.

Again, the 360 got a year head start while the Wii is cheaper. That's all there is to it.

When it all comes down to, nomatter how you slice things, those of different belief will never speak the same language. That's the reality of it all.

[tru2blu707]

Originally Posted by bajor27

And again with games, the only exclusive PS3 title that interests me this year is Little Big Planet, where as the 360 has Fable 2, Gears 2, and Too Human which all really interest me.

It's all relative in the end - we all have differing opinions based on what we think is great (saleswise and gamewise).


Oh, and I'll have to find the data again, but I'm quite sure the PS3 has the lowest attach rates of the 3 systems in the US (when looking at 2007 yearly software sales). I believe the numbers were something like 12:1 for Xbox, 10:1 for Wii, and 8:1 for PS3.

i dont know where you are getting your numbers for attached rates but here is a link that says ps3 and wii numbers are 5:1 while 360 numbers are 8.8:1

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=17099

its funny that you "seem" to like shooters like too human and gears but youre not interested in killzone2 or resistance?? resistance has 60 player battles and 8 player co op which the 360 has yet to match. lets not forget MGS4 which is an exclusive to ps3 that i think will be a better game than gears. and youre into fable but not final fantasy xiii?? final fantasy has proven to be a system seller where as fable is just for hardcore gamers. youre one of the FEW gamers that isnt interested in ps3 exclusives. even if you dont like those games coming out for the ps3...i bet those titles will sell over atleast 1million copies AND its gonna sell consoles. for the rest of us not living underneath a rock we all know that 08 will be the year of the ps3

[bajor27]

Originally Posted by tru2blu707

i dont know where you are getting your numbers for attached rates but here is a link that says ps3 and wii numbers are 5:1 while 360 numbers are 8.8:1

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=17099

its funny that you "seem" to like shooters like too human and gears but youre not interested in killzone2 or resistance?? resistance has 60 player battles and 8 player co op which the 360 has yet to match. lets not forget MGS4 which is an exclusive to ps3 that i think will be a better game than gears. and youre into fable but not final fantasy xiii?? final fantasy has proven to be a system seller where as fable is just for hardcore gamers. youre one of the FEW gamers that isnt interested in ps3 exclusives. even if you dont like those games coming out for the ps3...i bet those titles will sell over atleast 1million copies AND its gonna sell consoles. for the rest of us not living underneath a rock we all know that 08 will be the year of the ps3

I don't know why it's funny. Why should I have to want to buy every game in a genre I enjoy? I don't want to buy every comedy movie that gets released but I do enjoy some of them. I enjoy reading some fantasy novels, but I'm not interested in every fantasy novel. I'm not going to go into why I'm interested in Gears 2 and Too Human over Killzone 2 and Resistance 2. It's a pointless discussion. I will say that I'm still a bit skeptical that FF XIII will be coming out this year, so I currently am not considering it in games I may or may not want to buy this year.

As for the attach rates, I did post a follow up on that which apologized and said that the numbers I had heard must have been for only a certain month, and I posted a link to the correct numbers for their life cycles.

If you want to dismiss the 360 because of it's age, that's fine and I understand that, but the PS3 is still losing to the Wii as far as that goes (at least according to my link)

And I've said many times that I expect the PS3 to have a great year. Don't know if I stated it in this thread or another though, but I have said that I do expect yearly sales of the PS3 to be ahead of sales of the 360 in all marketplaces in 2008. I simply don't expect a blowout win for Sony this generation.

In any rate, I do appreciate the OP for taking the time to break down these numbers in a way that they see as fair. I'm pretty sure my original point was just that numbers are skewed no matter how we try to compare them as there are just too many differing factors involved. This isn't a controlled experiment where we can easily compare things.

[hardcore_canadian]

In a sort of Related Topic. I don't think people count PCs as consoles, so if a game is released on PC, it doesn't affect it's "exclusiveness".

And can we Liken this to say Automobiles? (These are Canadian Numbers, which tend to be downscaled Version of American Numbers) For the Last Who Knows how many Years running, the Civic's been the best selling Car in Canada, though it's not as Cheap as Many Ford, Chevy, or GM(C) cars out there. But people know the Efficiency and Quality of a Civic or Corolla is Much Better than a Focus or A Sunfire

Price-Wise, The Sunfire is Cheap...Very Cheap, yet is Outsold every single year. So Does this mean that the PS3 has an excuse for not selling well? Not Necessarily, it should be able to sell pretty well, even if it's the more expensive system.

Source: http://www.canadiandriver.com/articles/jc/compact2.htm

I suggest reading the Story on the Sunfire.....It IS the xbox of cars

The Article is from 2005, but It's basically the same today

[PS3ds]

THANKS YOU Buckeye for a great analysis here.

1. It is quite obvious the U.S. media is biased towards the 360 and M$ in general... why is the real question. I remember reading articles a year ago that predicted the BD and PS3 as 'dead'... turned out to be a bunch of horse shit.

2. That is EXACT method in which software sales should be looked at. Unforutnately , this method is not used because the average individual lacks the basic intelligence to comprehend it... so we get stuck with just the raw numbers being looked... very sad.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by Blu-Generation

That's the problem, lead isn't always a good thing.

HD-DVD came before Blu-ray and it lost.

360 came before PS3 and it got the RROD issue.

The next gen xbox will come out with the most advance tech, but then once the PS4 comes out, it'll be even more advance. The cycle continue.

This is just a theory, but I believe it is Sony's plan to use the Cell in the PS4 (just more of them). They are reducing the Cell to 45nm scale and reducing cost. By year 5 or 6 of the PS3's lifecycle, I believe they will introduce the PS4. I think it will be 2 or 3 Cells in the PS4 running @ 5GHz (for around the same price as the current 80GB PS3 or maybe the original 60GB launch price. Of course, it will probably have an EXTREMELY fast BD drive (6x burner/8x read?).

Game developers will already have a mastery of programming for the Cell by that time. They will be able to hit the ground running with the PS4 due to no time figuring out how to program for it. Multi-platform games will instantly be on par with the next Xbox. Then, 1st and 2nd party games for the PS4 would be able to take almost full advantage of the system at any point in time. Real -time ray-tracing in games will be a reality and uncanny realism will probably be achieved.

On the other hand, the next Xbox will probably have another learning curve associated with it. MS will probably be concerned with the initial prices due to the fact that they are not manufacturers. Therefore, they can't easily reduce their cost per unit, hereby limiting the amount of advanced technology that goes into the unit.

I believe the PS4 will have a MUCH MORE successful launch (compared with the PS3). It will probably ride the success of the Cell name well into the PS4's lifecycle. I predict current Wii sale numbers except starting in year 2 or 3 almost through most of the PS4's lifecycle.

I see the PS3 winning this generation with, at least, a 20 million console sale lead due to the long lifecycle.