Blu-ray Life span

[straydog52]

How long do you think blu-ray will be around before the next big media.

[cartman781]

One million years

[flyingdutchman]

I'd say 7-8 years.

[JasonR]

I would say 10 or 15 years to get downloading where it needs to be.

[Sonny]

20yrs at least.(you dont think DVD will be here in 10yrs ) It will take even longer to get the"masses" to DL's, & even then DL's will just be an option like Blu-ray is.

[iNCREDiPiNOY]

i say 1 ly.

[JasonR]

Originally Posted by Sonny

20yrs at least.(you dont think DVD will be here in 10yrs ) It will take even longer to get the"masses" to DL's, & even then DL's will just be an option like Blu-ray is.

I said 10-15 to get downloading where it needs to be, right now we are no where close. That doesn't include transition time. Then the amount of time it will take the user to get the Terabyte drives needed to hold their collections....

[Beta Man]

It all depends on what the next big "thing" is.... DL won't ever completely replace a PHYSICAL piece of media. People (as evident here) like to collect the discs etc. maybe memory chips etc. could be the next form of media, but whatever it is, it's gonna have to be "collector friendly"

Now, if a "new" disc capable of holding more data etc. comes out, it stands to reason it would do the same as Blu did for DVD, and be backwards compatable, as that's the best way to bring around the masses.......

DVD which is by no means a "dead technology" has been around 11-12 years, and I'd say it's gonna be 3 or so more years before we stop seeing NEW titles in DVD coming to rental stores etc. so if that's any indication, I wouldn't cancel your plans to watch the news.... because Blu will probably last just as long as DVD.

[Mystique]

I think at least 15 years. 5 years for the consumer to adopt the technology and then 10 years of use before something new and better comes out.

[unreal1080p]

10 reasons why nothing better then Blu-Ray is coming before 2050:

1) Transition from VHS/Laserdisc to DVD happened because:
-there had to be a transition from ANALOG to DIGITAL (both VHS & Laserdisc were analog formats)
-there had to be a transition to a more portable practical format (as opposed to huge ass Laserdisc and clunky VHS cassettes).

2) Transition from DVD to Blu-Ray had to happen because of the new broadcast standard that is HDTV

3) There are NO MORE valid reasons to transition to another format now

4) The next valid reason will ONLY happen when a new broadcast standard is established in North America and we are barely at the infancy of the HDTV era.

5) The next broadcast standard is Super Hi-Vision (8K) and is NOT coming until 2040-2050 (in North America).

6) DOWNLOADS ARE NOT THE FUTURE! By the time downloads even become somewhat mainstream, Blu-Ray will have such an overwhelming presence and be so inexpensive that it will not be threatened by crappy quality downloads. By the time the quality of downloads reaches Blu-Ray quality (audio & video) Blu-Ray will simply SHARE a market with downloads (IMHO the VAST majority of the population will and ALWAYS will prefer a physicall format).

7) TV's in peoples homes are going to be 2K (1920 X 1080) for a very VERY long time. There is absolutely NO REASON for the masses to change their HDTV's until a new higher end broadcast standard is established.

8) The previous broadcast standard was established in 1950 and is still going strong today even though HDTV was introduced in 1998.

During its campaign for FCC approval, CBS gave the first demonstrations of color television to the American general public, showing an hour of color programs daily Mondays through Saturdays, beginning January 12, 1950,

9) If DVD had came out in the early 60's... it would still be going strong today as their would have been NO REASON to change it for something else... EXACTLY the same reason why there will be NO reason to change Blu-Ray until approx 2050 when/if a new higher end broadcast standard becomes established in North America and a sufficient amount of homes have adopted new TV's supporting the new specification.

10) DVD's have been around for 10 years and will last another 10 until COMPLETELY being replaced by Blu-Ray. With Blu-Ray around as the highest quality form of movie media for the next 40 years, I believe it will take an additional 20 years for it to go away even after the introduction of something better... 2050 + 20 = 2070... making the lifespan of Blu-Ray 60+ years

P.S. Movie studios will still find ways to make you spend your money with 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th editions Super, Duper, Magical, Extended, Director's Cut & The Son of the Director's cut editions

[DutchBoy]

Originally Posted by cartman781

One million years

Two million!

[dgator783]

20 years....B+M stores will never let physical media die....

[cartman781]

Originally Posted by DutchBoy

Two million!

call me a pescimist

[DetroitSportsFan]

DVD still has quite a few years before it will be dead.

So for Blu, I'll say 15-20 years.

[Blubaru]

1 year before SUC takes over.

[AliceT]

Originally Posted by unreal1080p

10 reasons why nothing better then Blu-Ray is coming before 2050:

1) Transition from VHS/Laserdisc to DVD happened because:
-there had to be a transition from ANALOG to DIGITAL (both VHS & Laserdisc were analog formats)
-there had to be a transition to a more portable practical format (as opposed to huge ass Laserdisc and clunky VHS cassettes).

2) Transition from DVD to Blu-Ray had to happen because of the new broadcast standard that is HDTV

3) There are NO MORE valid reasons to transition to another format now

4) The next valid reason will ONLY happen when a new broadcast standard is established in North America and we are barely at the infancy of the HDTV era.

5) The next broadcast standard is Super Hi-Vision (8K) and is NOT coming until 2040-2050 (in North America).

6) DOWNLOADS ARE NOT THE FUTURE! By the time downloads even become somewhat mainstream, Blu-Ray will have such an overwhelming presence and be so inexpensive that it will not be threatened by crappy quality downloads. By the time the quality of downloads reaches Blu-Ray quality (audio & video) Blu-Ray will simply SHARE a market with downloads (IMHO the VAST majority of the population will and ALWAYS will prefer a physicall format).

7) TV's in peoples homes are going to be 2K (1920 X 1080) for a very VERY long time. There is absolutely NO REASON for the masses to change their HDTV's until a new higher end broadcast standard is established.

8) The previous broadcast standard was established in 1950 and is still going strong today even though HDTV was introduced in 1998.



9) If DVD had came out in the early 60's... it would still be going strong today as their would have been NO REASON to change it for something else... EXACTLY the same reason why there will be NO reason to change Blu-Ray until approx 2050 when/if a new higher end broadcast standard becomes established in North America and a sufficient amount of homes have adopted new TV's supporting the new specification.

10) DVD's have been around for 10 years and will last another 10 until COMPLETELY being replaced by Blu-Ray. With Blu-Ray around as the highest quality form of movie media for the next 40 years, I believe it will take an additional 20 years for it to go away even after the introduction of something better... 2050 + 20 = 2070... making the lifespan of Blu-Ray 60+ years

P.S. Movie studios will still find ways to make you spend your money with 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th editions Super, Duper, Magical, Extended, Director's Cut & The Son of the Director's cut editions

LOL. Thats all i can really say to this.

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

1 year before SUC takes over.

Don't start feeding the OP's paranoia

I think we are dealing with a poor soul that got burnt by HD DUD and does'nt care to repeat the experience anytime soon. He can rest easy with Blu-Ray

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by AliceT

LOL. Thats all i can really say to this.

Of course that's all you can say because there is NO WAY you can logically debate otherwize (it's been tried and all have failed... Ruprecht... )

[JasonR]

But Unreal I thought we would be seeing 4k in homes within 10 years?

[STI Jaguar]

unreal1080p's post surprisingly makes a lot of sense.