How long until Blu wipes out DVD?

[Merrick]

Originally Posted by donricouga

Blu-ray versus DVD is an uphill battle. You have to factor in the cost of not only buying a blu-ray player but Buying an HDTV to take advantage of the 1080p picture. Some might even want to upgrade their sound system to take advantage of the lossless codecs and uncompressed PCM audio. I know I did. This isn't cheap compared to buying a big crappy tv, a HTIB and a $40 dvd player. 5-6 years is MINIMUM

But don't forget - after the switch over (must be completed by 2009) people who want to stick with their old TV will have to buy a decoder to convert the digital signal to a format compatible with their old TV. For OTA people their choice is going to be simple: a $200 decoder which takes the really pretty picture on the HDTV sitting next to the decoder display and turns it into a crappy picture for them, or $600-$800 for a TV that will do the decoding (by 2009 that'll be standard) and show them the nice picture. That'll spilt no worse that 50:50 - probably more like 75:25 or better for a new HDTV.

Now, the installed cable base that already has decoders doing this or will replace the new decoders for nothing more than a visit and a minor change to the monthly rates will slow this - but the transition to HDTV in 2009/2010 is going to be rapid - be assured of that.

Than, as i've said here before - when people watch Brian Williams in HD t 6:30 then stick one of their favorite DVDs in and find they can no longer stand the crappy resolution they ar eseeing the extra $200-$300 purchase for a decent BD player in 2009/2010 is going to be a no-brainer.