How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

true, but BD should be able to handle real 3D, that is why there are the BD 3D threads, so I don't think a new format would be needed (but a new profile for sure)

It can handle it, but there's no way the bitrates would be able to be as high if they need to fit two full video tracks on the disc. I mean, imagine if they put two full copies of the movie on each 50 GB disc, each individual copy would have bitrates similar to a movie on a single layer disc, and the bitrate fanboys would get their panties in a bunch.

Originally Posted by ckent22

Actually, they do. The only thing Blu-ray offers compared to those is higher bit rates with better audio.

You forgot:

#1: special features
#2: physical ownership of the disc and accompanying material such as artwork and case

I'd wish you get off illegal downloading, because I'm not talking about that. I'm talking the LEGAL downloading services.

I talk about illegal downloading because illegally is the only way to get quality HD video.

And over time, higher bit rates PROBABLY will catch up in LEGAL downloading to Blu-ray.

Looking at what is available in digital music, I'd think not. If high bitrate downloads are rare for music, why would you think movies would be all that different? That "too cool for school" crowd that gets all their crap at the iTunes store, they also tend to be of the "its good enough" group. This is why Apple can get away with selling crappy low bitrate macroblocked garbage and calling it "HD" just because the picture has a high resolution.

You can still download HD video from these services and others that I haven't mentioned.

And it looks like garbage. And lacks special features.

Sorry, but if I'm gonna look at a picture that looks like garbage and doesn't even have the extra features, I think I could probably save a little more money by aiming for a barebones DVD release.

You're joking right? At least I hope you are. 30 dollars is about MSRP for a single Blu-ray and it's basically what you find on most store shelves for new releases unless you're an educated consumer.

I buy from Best Buy all the time and 30 dollars is the upper end for most things. Average for new release is more like 25, and ones that have been out for a while are ~20 or less.

MSRP means nothing.

I'll replace stupid with ignorant. There's a whole plethora of knowledge whether related to technology or in general that if people took the time to understand, then it would benefit them very well, and they wouldn't be ignorant.

I don't care what you say. People are stupid. I know this. I repeat, half of the population has an IQ below 100. Stop and let that sink in for a moment. Almost a majority of people in this world have a IQ that's not even in triple digits.

There's really not a time limit to say for something that is a niche. Using the definition I gave you and your knowledge of the word that you claim you have and using the knowledge of the marketplace, then it's understood that the marketplace changes. Things can have value one day, and the next day not.

As someone else said, using a strict definition, DVD can be called niche. Is that right?

Simply stating that Blu-ray for the time being is niche doesn't mean that it won't appeal to the masses one day.

I'm glad that you don't think so, but that's definitely the implication. You might not mean for it to be interpreted that way, but people will read those words into your statement, sometimes without even consciously realizing it.

At this particular point nobody knows whether it will share the success of DVD or turn into another laser disc type media.

BD is far enough along that it could never drop down to laserdisc-like levels. Even if it fails to overcome DVD, it'll still peak at a software market penetration higher than HDTV's hardware penetration, I'd say. Reason: people who buy a lot of movies are the ones who are going to be more interested in watching the movies in higher quality.

I know what an antique is, and yes, VHS is an antique now. I have several VHS tapes that I will hang onto. Not to watch them again, but because they are rare and autographed, etc. Age is but a small factor. It's not a determining factor. But, just because, the last VHS tape rolled out in 06' does that change the fact that there were other made 15 years ago? Heck no.

VHSs that you hang on to are for arbitrary collectible value or sentimental reasons, not for legitimate antique reasons. Go to an antique dealer and try to tell him your VHS collection is antique and he will laugh at you. You're trying to use colorful language to describe the situation when in fact the word you're really looking for is "technologically obsolete".

The only way I forsee that happening is if it breaks its niche market and appeals to the masses by lowering prices and educating consumers.

Now, when you say "niche" market, who do you mean exactly? Home theatre enthusiasts? Blu-ray fanboys? Movie collectors? HDTV owners?

Because DVD itself is even a niche market. TV owners is a niche market. Downloads is a niche market. It's all niche, really. In fact, every market is niche in one way or another-- there is no one product that all persons are interested in buying.

I didn't say that. I said that for the average consumer, a cheaper download makes sense. I mean, let's face it. Blu-ray has advantages in higher bit rates and HD audio, but if a consumer doesn't own a 5.1 or 7.1 surround system with HD-Codecs and doesn't have a HDTV or a cpu capable of playing the HD Video at high bit rates, then doesn't it make sense for them to invest in Blu-ray when there are cheaper alternatives?

The sense in it comes from them recognizing that BD is on track to be what DVD is now. Ask the average person what they expect to be watching a movie on in 10 years and they'll either say "DVD" or "Blu-ray"; they'd have to be a damned fool to actually expect downloads to get off the ground so soon and more than that, expect them to catch on in the tech-retarded mainstream society.

These are the things that need to be addressed if Blu-ray is going to achieve the success DVD has in that it becomes a household format and the standard.

Blu-ray is already almost a household name thanks to the advertisements. Try asking around your friends or coworkers or anyone and count how many people you can find who have no idea what blu-ray is. Then ask those same people if they had ever heard of purchasing a movie over the internet by downloading it. Which do you expect will have better brand awareness?

Let me ask you a question. Have digital copies been pirated? I realize they have been given to friends, etc. for people who didn't want them, but has anyone been able to remove the DRM off of a digital copy?

It's not worth it right now because it's easier to just rip the DVD lmao

and even if DVDs no longer existed, it's not that much harder to rip a BD either

But just because a movie exists as a digital copy with DRM on it doesn't mean that movie won't be pirated just the same. Even if it is pirated from other formats, it's pirated just the same.

You can't stop people from giving movies away to their friends regardless of if its a download or a disc based media. People, by nature are greedy and ruthless and want everything for themselves with as little cost to them as possible.

wut

DRM does stop people from giving away movies to friends. They lock it in to the machine and you can't just physically hand the movie over to your friend and let them watch it. In fact, the most effective way to get it to your friend would probably be to hop on a torrent site and download a technically illegal copy of it to share.

You want to me to show proof that downloads will take over or is it more that Blu-ray will fail? I have bought 260 Blu-ray movies. I don't want Blu-ray to fail, but I'm also a realist.

Technology is replaced in time, but you're not just arguing that Blu-ray will be replaced. You're arguing that it will be relatively soon and that it'll be downloads that will do it, POSSIBLY even as soon as before Blu-ray is able to overcome DVD.

That's based off of several things. You want proof. Well, I'm using countless articles I've read

Articles are hearsay and bullshit. I can't tell you how many articles I've read saying things like "Blu-ray is struggling and cannot take off" or "Why Blu-ray cannot make it" or "Why DVD is better than Blu-ray".

common sense

This is not an admissible source when attempting to prove something. If a statement is not evident in-and-of itself, it is not "common sense". For example, "2+2=4" is common sense. "I can predict the future and know that this is going to happen despite evidence to the contrary" is not common sense.

technological advancements

Technological advancements only support the fact that Blu-ray will be replaced, not HOW SOON it will be, nor by WHAT. In fact, looking back at the past, evidence would suggest a new physical medium, because that's how its always been. Technology advancing needn't be purely digital and over the Internet; new mediums for hardware and software are being worked on constantly as well.

but mostly ease of access

Yes, it's a lot easier for a tech-retard to know how to use their brandnew settop box to hop on the internet, find the movie they want, pay for it over the internet, then download it and navigate a graphical user interface to find the movie they'd like to watch.

Compared to "insert disc, press play button".

portability

Portability is important for movies? Some wackjobs might like to go for a jog with a movie or watch a movie in the car, but portability is required of music, generally not of movies. Either way, DVDs are portable enough for the places where portability is required, and oh, hey, what do you know, PORTABILITY IS ****ING COMPLETELY CRIPPLED BY MASSIVE DRM. I honestly can't believe you try to cite "portability" as a strong suit of digital downloads, because the only ones that are portable are the illegal ones.

and people's preferences.

There is no evidence to suggest that people would prefer to own movies in a purely digital form, and plenty of statistics indicating they enjoy owning movies in a physical form. Compare Blu-ray+DVD sales numbers to download numbers if you don't believe me.

Just google and you'll see that there are countless downloading sites besides iTunes out there and that they offer HD videos legally. The Bandwith is less than Blu-ray, but I've addressed that above.

Yeah, I hear Amazon is either doing it too or about to start. But who cares? It's GARBAGE. Furthermore, does it matter WHAT they're doing when their numbers cannot even come CLOSE to touching the sort of sales that physical media is hitting?

It's just reasonable to realize that with this growing trend of downloading

Growing trend? What?

You do realize that downloads have increased by a DRASTICALLY lower amount than would be necessary to indicate that it will be taking over, right? In a few years time Blu-ray has jumped up to above 10% of the physical market. What percent of the total market does downloads make up?

home video sales will reach a major plateau, and eventually cut off.

What you're seeing now in DVD sales is the sales cutting off. Blu-ray has a long way to go before the market is saturated.

There will always be disc based media buyers as well. Which is why I'm saying that disc based media will continue to have a decent life span, but it's days are more than likely numbered.

Just how soon do you think downloads are going to magically pop up and cut off disc sales? My mom refuses to change even to Blu-ray, why do you think her type of person would be willing to hop on board something COMPLETELY different?

"oh, it's cheaper!" Is it? She pays less than 5 dollars per title, and these are things which are nowhere near download release. Or does the iTunes store have Leprechaun 2 and Repossessed and Leprechaun in the Hood. Yes, Leprechaun in the Hood.

What's a new release DVD catalog title?

A movie which is a catalog title but which is new to DVD. Like Howard the Duck. Like I said.

Are you talking about re-released DVD catalog title?

No, but those too also start out at prices closer to new release titles before dropping down to sub 10 dollar prices.

Because, I can walk into to a lot of stores and sees catalog DVDs for 5 dollars or less.

And I can see them for 15~20 bucks. It depends on the specific movie, you dunderhead.

Will the average consumer necessarily buy a re-released Catalog title with increased special features on a DVD or Blu-ray for that matter? Well, maybe, but maybe not.

What? OF COURSE THEY WILL. That's why they double dip movies. Because they make the studio money.

What we can assume is that the cheaper product can be more appealing for it's cost to the masses who are necessarily as rich as the elite and technologically savvy group who buys Blu-rays and re-released films on DVDs.

It doesn't take being "elite" or "technologically savvy" to enjoy Blu-ray. BDs play just the same as DVDs, they require no technical knowledge (unlike downloads wherein you'd need to establish the network connection with a settop box). And "elite"? Really? 200 bucks can get you a GREAT Blu-ray player, and plenty of movies can be bought for under 20 bucks. It's not that everyone only buys 5 dollar bargain bin shit DVDs, people are still paying 15~20 bucks for DVDs. It happens. And what about PS3 owners? Are they "elite" because they spent 400 dollars on their gaming platform of choice?

Not the same logic at all. You're conveniently forgetting or leaving out, I'm not sure which one that CDs were also emerging and replacing a-track tapes.

LOL

Dude, seriously? Really? Standard cassettes had already trounced 8-tracks by the time CDs had a shot at reaching mainstream success. Read this, directly from the Wikipedia article about 8-track:

"Eight-track players became less common in homes and automobiles in the late 1970s. By the time the Compact Disc arrived in 1982–83, the eight-track had greatly diminished in popularity."

Also: it's 8-track, bro, not a-track.

People liked the idea that CDs and DVDs were identical in the way they looked, so they no longer wanted something that resembled a cassette tape. They wanted the new technology that looked like a CD. The CD player was hip just like the DVD was hip too, because it was no longer a tape.

Actually, the reason for the similar size would be backwards compatibility, not to make them "hip" like the 15 year old tech people were using for music. In reality, the similarity in disc appearance seemed to be an area for confusion as far as I could tell, people thought they were the same thing.

On the other hand, now you have Blu-ray which resembles still a DVD and a CD, but now people prefer to buy their music through downloads and play them on their iPOD. iPOD revolutionized music and listening to muisc, and it's slowly influencing people to rethink their movie purchases as well.

Dude, I'm not stupid. You're making one statement, then attempting to connect it to another without providing evidence or anything to even support it. Basically you said "music is this, so movies is this too". No. Show me NUMBERS that say people want to download movies, and these NUMBERS should indicate that they wish to PURCHASE and OWN movies in the same way they might PURCHASE and OWN music from the Internet.

It simply doesn't exist, and you know why? All numbers indicate people are still interested in physically owning movies.

Not sure what you're getting at here other than there are plenty of Blu-ray rips floating on torrent sites. But at the same time, Blu-ray has taken better precautions to combat piracy by the codes placed on the disc. That hurt DVD, because it was fairly easy for anyone to crack these codes and remove the DRM.

Uh, there is no "remove the DRM". I get the feeling that you don't understand how this stuff works at all.

Once again, piracy will be there whether it's disc or downloads.

Uh... what? You're the one that suggested downloads were somehow impervious. That if a movie was provided as a digital download that it would not be pirated.

Well, DRM is a tricky thing/issue. It's the same thing with ripping a CD to your iTunes library on your cpu. Is it technically removing the DRM and making copies of those songs? Yes. So, is it illegal? Probably, depends on what country you live in. But, more than likely it is depending on which law expert you talk to. For my knowledge, no one has been sued for ripping a CD to put onto their iTunes library and probably won't be.

But that's the RIAA. Who is to say that the MPAA and the FBI wouldn't crack down on someone illegally copying a movie they own in one form to loan to a friend because the DRM in their digital copy doesn't allow them to share?

Now, before you jump all over me, yes common sense comes into play, but common sense is a luxury that you're not born with, and don't make the incorrect assumption that all people have that.

What you're calling common sense is actually baseless intuition. COMMON SENSE is called that for a reason, BECAUSE IT IS COMMON, i.e., plain to see for every person. For example, it is common sense that DVD is the dominant force right now.

IT IS NOT COMMON SENSE TO MAKE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE THAT CONTRADICT STATISTICAL EVIDENCE.

Seriously, I disagree that downloads will be around any time soon, but I wouldn't even say "it is common sense that downloads won't make serious headway in the home theatre market in the near future". Because it's not COMMON SENSE. Common sense means that it's EASILY understood and READILY AGREED UPON.

You are just trying to belittle my argument by making it seem that yours is so simple and completely agreed upon when in fact it is not. I'd even so far as to say that among folks on this forum, the statement "Downloads will beat Blu-ray relatively soon" is as far from COMMON SENSE as it can go.

You are probably looking at the next five years. Am I correct? I am looking at the bigger picture here whether Blu-ray is around for 5, 10, or 20 years and even the next disc based media after it. This is my point - - downloading is only gonna expand based on new technology in cpus, hard drives, etc. going back to my original point in that disc based media's days are numbered.

Dude, are you just skimming my posts? I mean, I could understand if you are, due to how long they are, but if you are, just say so. You're clearly missing VERY key points.

I'm not saying Blu-ray won't be replaced. I'm not saying optical discs will always be used. All I am saying is that Blu-ray will not be replaced any time soon, and most certainly not by downloads.

What's funny?

The fact that you think optical discs are as volatile as magnetic discs or RAM-based memory storage devices.

Do yourself a favor and go pick up a stack of DVD-R's and tell me if there in small print is written manufacturer guarantees this product for 2 years or something to that extent. CD, DVDs, or Blu-rays don't last forever regardless of whether or not you misuse them.

Warranties and things of that nature mean NOTHING in terms of the product's actual life. In fact, such a warranty is only good IF THE PRODUCT IS UNUSED OR FAILS DUE TO MANUFACTURER FAULT. If the disc is scratched because you're careless, that's your fault. If the disc stops working because you microwaved it, your fault. Just because a warranty has a finite limit to it does not mean that the product is only expected to last that long, in fact, quite the opposite. Look at automobiles. How long do the warranties last there? Would you really expect an automobile to die after a couple of years because that's when the warranty runs out?

Kind of like the annoyance you get when you have to buy a new film on disc based media when the next big thing pops up? Just for the record, those situations won't necessarily happen. You talk about hard drives failing. Well, I got news for you. They do, but just like you like to talk about handling CDs properly, if you handle Hard Drives properly, they can have a long life span. Nothing is guaranteed, but Hard Drives can last a while. If you read what I said, there will probably be measures put into place like you can download a couple of times, etc.

I think you missed what iI said, because I conjectured about surcharges for replace downloads, then commented about how you'd likely get hit for bandwidth overages for downloading multiple 20+ GB files.

Once again, if the average consumer doesn't have the capability to play HD audio, then it won't help them anyway. You can offer HD Audio film downloads or regular DD 1080i/1080p downloads. That way you cater both markets.

They'd never go to the trouble of hosting two identical copies of the same movie that only differ in the audio. What they should do is develop a container like .mkv and that'd allow all they need packaged together, and people who can't even enjoy HD audio would just have to deal with the additional data that is useless to them, exactly the same way a person with a 720p screen would have to deal with just playing a 1080p copy.

I'm not sure what you're getting out here. I assume you're referring to the downloads not being as good as Blu-ray. If that's the case, I've covered numerous times above, so, I'm not gonna waste my time writing it again.

Well then, what say you of the fact that MP3s and things of that nature purchased digitally from online stores have terrible quality compared to even CD releases of the same songs? Do you honestly expect them to work the movie industry differently? They minimize bitrates to maximize profit.

Who is to say that we won't see a 10 TB USB stick in the future? You? There's no guarantee that we won't.

Again, I feel I must point out that you're clearly not reading everything I have to say. Or maybe you just don't understand? Here, let me repeat it:

I admitted that I wouldn't be surprised to see a USB stick-style form of delivery in the future. If they gave ample reason for a new format like excellent 3D support, I could definitely see that happening. But USB stick movies is not the same as downloaded movies.

I believe it is possible for a solid-state media to replace Blu-ray, but I do not believe it is possible for downloads to replace anything (except the rental market).

Are you talking about pre-loaded USB movies that come directly from the studio?

Yes... duh. Using a small, high capacity solid-state drive to deliver a high quality movie and extras to the enduser in the same way that DVDs and BDs do now.

Another ignorant statement. Several may have been the wrong word. But, just to give you a lesson in demographics there are 6 billion plus people on the planet, and taking into account those that don't have a tv cuts that number dramatically. Cutting it even more are the people who don't have HD technology cuts it even more.

Congratulations. You just proved the point I was trying to make earlier that it's absurd to consider things niche just because they're made up of a subset of a larger population!

Computers are just as prevalent in homes and for those on a budget (the average consumer) you can cut your cable bill and your movie bills out completely by watching HD content on your cpu and downloading HD movies which are what I'd say is more than Blu-ray niche buyers.

wait

Did you SERIOUSLY just say "more people download HD movies than buy Blu-ray discs"? I don't know if I'd even say "more people ILLEGALLY download HD movies than buy Blu-ray discs."

Or are you just saying "it would be cheaper to do that"? I don't think it would be... not for a typical person. For someone who buys a lot of BDs, yeah, it would be cheaper, but that's only because there are a LOT less movies to pick from to download in HD, and even then, they're still sacrificing quality, which is perhaps the worst sin a fan of Blu-ray can commit.

Again, if you think that downloads won't catch Blu-ray, then you're very ignorant and choose to ignore the technological advancements in cpus and hard drives. This is more about services, and companies will start offering these. It's only a matter of time.

By the time the world is ready to accept downloading as mainstream as that, I doubt if Blu-ray would even be around any longer. Probably would've been replaced by HVD or some kind of solid-state drive.

Why are you so focused on illegally downloaded movies? You're so hung up on it. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it seems like everything you argue keeps coming back to illegal downloads.

Uh, yeah, because they're the only ones with reasonable quality and the people who I've seen argue fervently in favor of downloads being "OMG THE FUTURE" and how "DUDE DOWNLOADS ARE ABOUT TO TAKE OVER" are the same sort of folks who torrent movies instead of buying them anyway.

You really need to get out more. For your information, illegally downloaded movies are not quality. They aren't the original product. They're a cheap imitation of the original that is not true to the source.

Haha. That's funny dude. Blu-ray rips look great, and DVD rips look just like the source too. It's only camera recordings of theatrical displays that are garbage.

I told you why I said this, but you choose to ignore it. It's more than a gut feeling. You also choose to ignore that the same factors that caused DVD to succeed aren't there. I've spelled those out to you over and over again in this post and others, but you don't want to hear it.

I don't want to hear it because what you've failed to provide is actual evidence to support your claim. You've guessed at why DVD succeeded, and blanket stated that whatever made DVD succeed lacking from Blu-ray will cause Blu-ray to be unable to succeed. You haven't even truly stated why you think people will be willing to change gears completely and switch to owning movies in a purely intangible form. So, statistics indicate people like and will continue to like physically owning movies, and you've failed to provide evidence or statistics indicating otherwise. You are not debating logically, you are telling me feelings and not even coming close to backing those feelings up with anything reasonable.

When, you take your blinders off and realize that Blu-ray can and probably will take a serious plunge to downloads whether illegal or legal, then you'll realize that it can succeed, but it's days are numbered.

"it's days are numbered"... is that intentionally ambiguous or not? Of course it won't last forever. But to say it that way implies that it's on its way out. That its end of days is coming soon.

It's days are numbered you say? What number is that? 5 years? 10 years?

Downloading is very modern technology, so I'm not sure what you mean by this. Again, you come to the illegal stuff, can we get off illegal downloads. I'd prefer if the mods didn't close this thread because of that.

I'd actually prefer if they did. This thread is going nowhere fast, and I'm honestly a little bored of this back-and-forth filibuster attempting here.

???? Yeah, that's a big problem. But, I don't know how that's gonna make it succeed.

I think you need to practice reading comprehension a little more, bro. No offense, seriously, but I never even came close to implying that lack of HDTV penetration would be something in favor of anything succeeding.

ps sorry for the length folks, but so long as I got time to kill, I won't let this guy win the filibuster, not as long as this thread remains open >