How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

[ckent22]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I'm of the opinion that downloads/streams won't be doing much to the market for owning movies, but will instead replace the market for renting movies. More than a few agree with me.

I think they'll do more than you and others think IF and this is a big IF they can somehow capture the high bitrates and HD audio that Blu-ray can. But, the most attractive thing about downloads are that you don't have to have physical based media and worry about storage space. Some like that, but others don't. With the price of hard drives lowering substantially daily, then it's not unrealistic to assume that downloads will become a major player. They may or may not take over Blu-ray or the HD market completely, but they will attract a lot of people and already are in the process of doing so.

First, no one has to rebuy their entire library. Upscaled DVD performs much better compared to BD than VHS compared to DVD.

Yeah, you've got a point, but upscaled DVDs are not Full HD. So, for the average consumer who is not educated on HD technology, why would they buy a Blu-ray player only to be told that you don't need to buy new movies and that you can keep your old ones. This is exactly why Blu-ray has not appealed to the masses yet. Because, you have toshiba and other players that are upscaling players, but they aren't full HD. The average consumer sees these and thinks that they are just as good if not close too Blu-ray quality.

Second, Blu-ray is not niche. Niche is what laserdisc was. I've never even seen a laserdisc in real life. Not in department stores, and no one I knew owned them. Heck, I doubt if most people even knew what they were; I certainly didn't until they were already dead. But with Blu-ray getting advertised all over all forms of media (sometimes exclusively and independently of a DVD release), market penetration peeking over 10% and constantly growing, and being available not just in specialty stores, but also places like department stores and even sometimes supermarkets... "niche" is definitely not the right word.

Niche is the right word. Even though Blu-ray is getting this publicity, go to your local Best Buy who is considered the place to go for vast appeal and look at the number of Blu-ray disc compared to DVDs. DVDs are the major players and yes they have been around longer but still that doesn't change the fact that like I've been saying the average consumer doesn't understand HD technology must less has bought into it with their dollars. If most had, then business would not be selling analog converter boxes and they would not be selling DVDs anymore.

Third, even if it's "far" from replacing DVD, it's definitely on track to. The only thing holding it up are the people who are reluctant to change. Anyway, no one really knows how "far" it is from replacing; all we do know are current market shares and projected growth estimations. But even if you had perfect predictions, what is your qualifier for DVD being officially replaced? DVDs no longer being produced? DVD players no longer made? Blu-ray making up at least 50% software market share? Blu-ray making up at least 50% hardware market share? It's not really something which can be predicted, it will just happen over time. Sometime down the line, you'll be able to look back and be aware that Blu-ray has truly replaced DVD. You'd never be able to pin down a definite day that it happened though.

You can certainly base predictions off of market shares, but downloading and piracy and the technological advancements in cpus and personal technology will prohibit IMO Blu-ray from ever becoming as successful as DVD. I consider Blu-ray as successful as DVD when there are no DVDs left on the shelves, and it becomes an antique.

Blu-ray ALREADY HAS taken off like DVD did (according to many accounts, at an even faster rate). And that's even in the face of high unemployment rates and people losing thousands in invested savings. Oh, and the fact that Blu-ray is identified as only being needed if you have HD, and HD sets are present in something like 1/3 homes.

1/3 homes still leaves 2 out of 3 homes without anything HD related and that's a big problem. Until these prices come way down, then it will never achieve mass market appeal the way DVD did.

It's not about "hi-def". They need to emphasize all the points, not just the 1080p picture. I'd like to see them try to reach out to the average TV watcher and explain to them about the colors, frame rate, and progressive image. I'd also like to see them touch on uncompressed audio. They do a pretty good job at making people aware of how much better menus and special features can be.

And honestly, I'd like to see them basically just say "In time, this WILL be the standard like DVD is now." People need to recognize that they're not going to "beat" Blu-ray by continuing to buy inferior DVDs.


Those kinds of articles are usually entirely misleading.

Again, we can predict things until we're blue in the face (no pun intended), but at the same time, I think downloads are gonna pull their own with Blu-ray maybe not overcoming Blu-ray. That's not what I'm saying, but I am saying I think there will be a substantial market for both HD downloads and Blu-ray over time and that this will possibly prohibit Blu-ray from sharing the same success as DVD.