How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by ckent22

It's VERY tough to say. Taking into account movie downloads and being able to download strictly to your cpu or your xbox or ps3 is already occuring, but the bitrates and the audio aren't anywhere what you find on a Blu-ray.

I'm of the opinion that downloads/streams won't be doing much to the market for owning movies, but will instead replace the market for renting movies. More than a few agree with me.

I'm a big supporter of Blu-ray, so I hope it's around for a while, but at the same time, I've across a lot of people who still don't understand what Blu-ray is and who don't want to buy all their films again. It's understandable if they don't have the money. Blu-ray is still a very niche market and product. It's the best of the best, and it's still far from replacing DVD.

First, no one has to rebuy their entire library. Upscaled DVD performs much better compared to BD than VHS compared to DVD.

Second, Blu-ray is not niche. Niche is what laserdisc was. I've never even seen a laserdisc in real life. Not in department stores, and no one I knew owned them. Heck, I doubt if most people even knew what they were; I certainly didn't until they were already dead. But with Blu-ray getting advertised all over all forms of media (sometimes exclusively and independently of a DVD release), market penetration peeking over 10% and constantly growing, and being available not just in specialty stores, but also places like department stores and even sometimes supermarkets... "niche" is definitely not the right word.

Third, even if it's "far" from replacing DVD, it's definitely on track to. The only thing holding it up are the people who are reluctant to change. Anyway, no one really knows how "far" it is from replacing; all we do know are current market shares and projected growth estimations. But even if you had perfect predictions, what is your qualifier for DVD being officially replaced? DVDs no longer being produced? DVD players no longer made? Blu-ray making up at least 50% software market share? Blu-ray making up at least 50% hardware market share? It's not really something which can be predicted, it will just happen over time. Sometime down the line, you'll be able to look back and be aware that Blu-ray has truly replaced DVD. You'd never be able to pin down a definite day that it happened though.

Prices have got to come way down until it ever replaces DVD and it ever is given mass consumption. Until that happens, I see all the major studios still supporting it UNTIL they are given a reason not to. If Blu-ray never takes off like DVD and that's a big if then it's certainly possible that they will jump ship.

Blu-ray ALREADY HAS taken off like DVD did (according to many accounts, at an even faster rate). And that's even in the face of high unemployment rates and people losing thousands in invested savings. Oh, and the fact that Blu-ray is identified as only being needed if you have HD, and HD sets are present in something like 1/3 homes.

I hope this doesn't happen. But, I would like to see the average consumer more educated. I think they did a better job educating people on DVD. There just hasn't been this emphasis on Blu-ray and why people should go Hi-Def.

It's not about "hi-def". They need to emphasize all the points, not just the 1080p picture. I'd like to see them try to reach out to the average TV watcher and explain to them about the colors, frame rate, and progressive image. I'd also like to see them touch on uncompressed audio. They do a pretty good job at making people aware of how much better menus and special features can be.

And honestly, I'd like to see them basically just say "In time, this WILL be the standard like DVD is now." People need to recognize that they're not going to "beat" Blu-ray by continuing to buy inferior DVDs.

As a matter of a fact, I just read a computer magazine the other day saying to save tons of money, skip Blu-ray for now. It makes sense if you want to save money, but this is the same problem that Blu-ray has faced since its beginning. If it's ever gonna last a long time, then it needs to come down in price.

Those kinds of articles are usually entirely misleading.

"Don't buy a Blu-ray player, put 100 dollars in a new DVD player instead!" They often ignore the fact that Blu-ray players can be bought for VERY cheap in many cases. For example, the cheapest of the good brands can be bought for 200 bucks easily. Aim for a refurb or used and you can dip down below 150. BD drives for computers can cost less than 100 dollars. They also often ignore that BD players are also upconverting DVD players. They also tend to ignore the fact that the PS3 can function as #1: a game system, #2: an upconverting DVD player, #3: a media center for digital content from the internet, #4: a Blu-ray player.

"Blu-ray discs are way too expensive. Do you want to pay 40 dollars per movie? I think not!" They always cite MSRP rather than more realistic prices that places like Best Buy charge: between 20 and 30 dollars. They never recognize prices that Amazon often has: 25 dollars and less, sometimes even below 15 dollars.

"Don't bother with Blu-ray. If you do, you'll have to rebuy every movie you already own AGAIN? How many times have you bought Star Wars? Get prepared to buy it a couple more times on Blu-ray, only this time paying much more per movie." Rebuying everything isn't a requirement and only a damned fool would think it is.

They're often accused of being paid for by Microsoft or being written by bitter HD-DVD fanboys. Honestly, I'd say those arguments are probably right at least part of the time. It can make sense to hold off on converting to Blu-ray, especially if you're short on cash and don't even have a HDTV, but to SKIP it altogether is foolish and as time goes on, people will learn how truly impossible that task will be.

Originally Posted by Blubaru

At the rate it's going, not very long I don't see it growing to point where retailers can justify keeping it on their shelves for years to come.

Why would you think that? It's growing constantly and, by many accounts, at a faster rate than DVD did.

My guess is it will head into a D-VHS like existence and eventually disappear. Replaced by a more advanced and improved technology.

Did D-VHS have full studio support? Did it ever enjoy market penetration between 10 and 20%?

Or maybe it will stick around like LaserDisc and cater the niche HD disc community.

HD is not niche, and even if it was, I think what you should be saying is "It will DEFINITELY stick around to cater to owners of HDTVs." HD sets are fairly common and becoming more common everyday. Pretty much anyone who doesn't already have one wants one and will have one in time.

Two things need to happen and happen quick for Blu-ray to succeed
1. Sub $100 Player
2. Sub $20 movies

If people have such a hard time paying 20 dollars for movies, I guess no one buys new release DVDs either...? Anyway, plenty of BDs can be bought for ~20 bucks, many even lower. Best Buy even routinely has sales, and sometimes they're really nice. For example, the X-men films just came out and Best Buy had them for 2 for 35 dollars, or roughly 17.50 each. And these movies just released AND they include movie cash for the new film in the franchise. I personally buy most of my movies for around 17 bucks or less. Rarely will I even pay as much as 25, but even for the few times I might cave and do it, I still get sub-15 dollar movies so often that it definitely balances out.

As for "sub 100 dollar player": I got one on a deal from Amazon for 99 dollars. It just takes not being completely stupid, and you'll find that Blu-ray isn't anywhere near as expensive as people think.