How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

[Grumpz]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Notice also that capacity isn't the only issue here-- if a person doesn't use a flash drive correctly, they can irreparably damage the data. Yeah, optical discs can get scratched, but generally, one doesn't DESTROY ALL DATA if they make a mistake during NORMAL USE. That's the major hurdle here, I think, aside from the fact that it'll take time before studios would be willing to abandon their baby for a new one.

I'm not implying that it would have to be in the exact format of a usb drive as it exists today. It wouldn't take much to give the storage eeprom type characteristics.

The cost of storage is the main hurdle in this situation (not the only). If memory was cheap like borscht when video went digital (DVD) we likely would of skipped DVD's all together.

I look at standalone DVD recorders for television. They didn't have a chance to catch on, PVR's/DVR's dominate that market. Digital cameras are mainstream, sure film is used, but to what extent? Hard Drive video cameras are the norm...the list goes.

Heck, I myself keep everything on my computer that I can, and stream it to my PS3.

To me, it's the next obvious progression, and since technology is growing faster today, than it did in the vhs to dvd and then dvd to blu transitions. I think it's going to be quick.

Check this out, yes the quick blurb is from 2007, but look at the players.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/10/18/u...-flash-drives/

It's coming quicker than most think.

[boynotorious]

I take the fact that the Digital Switch from Analog had to be pushed back here in the states as a huge sign of things to come. It was estimated that something like 20% of all households (or something like that) would go black if it wasn't pushed. That means 20% of the country still hasn't adapted to Cable TV and are likely using 15+ year old TV's. These people will simply not convert. They are happy with the crap they are watching and don't see the big deal. You can't even sell these people Cable TV and people are wondering when they will convert to BD !!!!!

Myself.... I had a huge VHS Collection of which I still have less than 30+ titles I am simply too lazy to convert. I then discovered LD and started up there almost instantly refusing to buy anything on VHS. I still have around 40+ LD's. And for whatever reason, I still miss the format to this day. As of this Christmas, when I officially took the HD Plunge, I find myself sitting on 5,234 DVD's that I need to replace. And only about 136 BD's into my stash as of today. I started on the ground floor of DVD. I would say it took my 2+ years to hit the 100 titles owned count. It took me 4 months to do it on BD and I was not doing anything near the aggressive buying I am now. I simply won't pay $25 to $30 dollars to replace anything in my collection on general principle. On the other hand, I have no problem dishing $25 for a new release title. It's still a damn sight cheaper than new release LD's and about average with DVD at the same time in it's history. (Counting from the end of the Format War as prices would never have dropped before then.) On the same note, new release VHS was not a sell-thru market and would cost you $100 a pop. For at least a few years after release in nearly all cases.

My point in all of this.... I loved the idea of DVD because you could buy anything for cheap and they were a damn sight easier to store than LD's which were huge and bulky. The reason I am a huge BD-Fan today is the resolution and sound. However, if you don't have a decent TV and Secondary Sound System, then what is the point? What are you attempting to sell people? Before you have to worry about what format is the next you really have to ask yourself why people on whole will even care !!!!

I take my mother as the prime example. I sat her and my father down in front of my Pioneer Elite Kuro 111, possibly the best TV ever produced or pretty damn close to it. Professionally Calibrated, running off top of the line HDMI Monster Cables, sucked out of a Pioneer Elite SC-05. The best possible presentation you can give the non-converted. Tossed in the Speed Racer BD. Sound was a non-issue for these people as it will be for most. Your never going to sell the unconverted on sound. It's a waste of time to think you will. I wanted something with a buffet of colors and resolution. I wanted it to pop and the shock and awe that followed. Not so much. My dear old mum said simply, "It a beautiful picture. But do I really need it? No."

That is your problem. Not when DVD or BD will be replaced. When the average consumer is going to feel the need to give a s***. Till you solve that problem this whole thread is a non-issue. The current thing hasn't even really happened yet. Talking about when it is going to be the past thing is just pointless.

[Mr. Cinema]

This is the last disc format, imo. Sales are increasing year-to-year. BD and DVD will co-exist for many years, with BD being the premium "special edition" option and DVD being reduced to cheap/bare bones. The problem I have with BD are catalog titles not selling. Unfortunately, the majority of BD owners are PS3 users and based on sales, they only care about brand new titles and do not give a crap about classics.

If they want catalog titles to start selling, they need to stop the $20 price tag. Catalogs should be $15 tops.

Silence of the Lambs, one of the greatest movies of all-time, was priced at $15 for 1 week and it still couldn't crack the top 20. PATHETIC.

[SkantDragon]

To the op...

Like many technically minded and savvy individuals, it seems obvious to you that the rest of the world besides yourself aught to also be technically savvy.

Especially people living in high tech places, like silicon valley, tend to forget that most of the world is far far away from cutting edge technologies.

Nor do they care. People like you and I get really excited about these advancements in technology. But most people could barely care less. It just doesn't feature in their lives. And that doesn't mean there's something wrong with them. They're just not that kind of people.

Technical people often find it hard to understand how nontechnical people can stand being so behind the times. And nontechnical people generally think technical people have their priorities in the wrong places.

Anyway, the upshot of it is that once Blu-ray is in place, it will be in place for a long time to come. New technologies will arrive, but actually dislodging Blu-ray will still take a long time. Just like DVD is far from dead yet.

The populace is accustomed to buying discs. For this reason alone, that will not change any time soon.

[surfdude12]

Originally Posted by SkantDragon

To the op...

Like many technically minded and savvy individuals, it seems obvious to you that the rest of the world besides yourself aught to also be technically savvy.

Especially people living in high tech places, like silicon valley, tend to forget that most of the world is far far away from cutting edge technologies.

Nor do they care. People like you and I get really excited about these advancements in technology. But most people could barely care less. It just doesn't feature in their lives. And that doesn't mean there's something wrong with them. They're just not that kind of people.

Technical people often find it hard to understand how nontechnical people can stand being so behind the times. And nontechnical people generally think technical people have their priorities in the wrong places.

Anyway, the upshot of it is that once Blu-ray is in place, it will be in place for a long time to come. New technologies will arrive, but actually dislodging Blu-ray will still take a long time. Just like DVD is far from dead yet.

The populace is accustomed to buying discs. For this reason alone, that will not change any time soon.

well said SkantD!

EDIT: but now i'm thinking that the "nontechnical people" of 2008 are a heck of a lot more technically knowledgeable/proficient than they were in 1980 or even in 2000, so we'll have to see. I guess what i'm saying is that the gap is shrinking between "nontechies" and "techies". everyone needs to know how to download files from the internet or they just can't function today. its "get technical or die" mentality now.

[Grumpz]

Originally Posted by SkantDragon

To the op...

Like many technically minded and savvy individuals, it seems obvious to you that the rest of the world besides yourself aught to also be technically savvy.

Especially people living in high tech places, like silicon valley, tend to forget that most of the world is far far away from cutting edge technologies.

Nor do they care. People like you and I get really excited about these advancements in technology. But most people could barely care less. It just doesn't feature in their lives. And that doesn't mean there's something wrong with them. They're just not that kind of people.

Technical people often find it hard to understand how nontechnical people can stand being so behind the times. And nontechnical people generally think technical people have their priorities in the wrong places.

Anyway, the upshot of it is that once Blu-ray is in place, it will be in place for a long time to come. New technologies will arrive, but actually dislodging Blu-ray will still take a long time. Just like DVD is far from dead yet.

The populace is accustomed to buying discs. For this reason alone, that will not change any time soon.

Non-savvy individuals have been moved from vhs to dvd and are on their way to blu-ray.

The consumer didn't decide on these change, we went along with them, savvy or not.

[ckent22]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I'm of the opinion that downloads/streams won't be doing much to the market for owning movies, but will instead replace the market for renting movies. More than a few agree with me.

I think they'll do more than you and others think IF and this is a big IF they can somehow capture the high bitrates and HD audio that Blu-ray can. But, the most attractive thing about downloads are that you don't have to have physical based media and worry about storage space. Some like that, but others don't. With the price of hard drives lowering substantially daily, then it's not unrealistic to assume that downloads will become a major player. They may or may not take over Blu-ray or the HD market completely, but they will attract a lot of people and already are in the process of doing so.

First, no one has to rebuy their entire library. Upscaled DVD performs much better compared to BD than VHS compared to DVD.

Yeah, you've got a point, but upscaled DVDs are not Full HD. So, for the average consumer who is not educated on HD technology, why would they buy a Blu-ray player only to be told that you don't need to buy new movies and that you can keep your old ones. This is exactly why Blu-ray has not appealed to the masses yet. Because, you have toshiba and other players that are upscaling players, but they aren't full HD. The average consumer sees these and thinks that they are just as good if not close too Blu-ray quality.

Second, Blu-ray is not niche. Niche is what laserdisc was. I've never even seen a laserdisc in real life. Not in department stores, and no one I knew owned them. Heck, I doubt if most people even knew what they were; I certainly didn't until they were already dead. But with Blu-ray getting advertised all over all forms of media (sometimes exclusively and independently of a DVD release), market penetration peeking over 10% and constantly growing, and being available not just in specialty stores, but also places like department stores and even sometimes supermarkets... "niche" is definitely not the right word.

Niche is the right word. Even though Blu-ray is getting this publicity, go to your local Best Buy who is considered the place to go for vast appeal and look at the number of Blu-ray disc compared to DVDs. DVDs are the major players and yes they have been around longer but still that doesn't change the fact that like I've been saying the average consumer doesn't understand HD technology must less has bought into it with their dollars. If most had, then business would not be selling analog converter boxes and they would not be selling DVDs anymore.

Third, even if it's "far" from replacing DVD, it's definitely on track to. The only thing holding it up are the people who are reluctant to change. Anyway, no one really knows how "far" it is from replacing; all we do know are current market shares and projected growth estimations. But even if you had perfect predictions, what is your qualifier for DVD being officially replaced? DVDs no longer being produced? DVD players no longer made? Blu-ray making up at least 50% software market share? Blu-ray making up at least 50% hardware market share? It's not really something which can be predicted, it will just happen over time. Sometime down the line, you'll be able to look back and be aware that Blu-ray has truly replaced DVD. You'd never be able to pin down a definite day that it happened though.

You can certainly base predictions off of market shares, but downloading and piracy and the technological advancements in cpus and personal technology will prohibit IMO Blu-ray from ever becoming as successful as DVD. I consider Blu-ray as successful as DVD when there are no DVDs left on the shelves, and it becomes an antique.

Blu-ray ALREADY HAS taken off like DVD did (according to many accounts, at an even faster rate). And that's even in the face of high unemployment rates and people losing thousands in invested savings. Oh, and the fact that Blu-ray is identified as only being needed if you have HD, and HD sets are present in something like 1/3 homes.

1/3 homes still leaves 2 out of 3 homes without anything HD related and that's a big problem. Until these prices come way down, then it will never achieve mass market appeal the way DVD did.

It's not about "hi-def". They need to emphasize all the points, not just the 1080p picture. I'd like to see them try to reach out to the average TV watcher and explain to them about the colors, frame rate, and progressive image. I'd also like to see them touch on uncompressed audio. They do a pretty good job at making people aware of how much better menus and special features can be.

And honestly, I'd like to see them basically just say "In time, this WILL be the standard like DVD is now." People need to recognize that they're not going to "beat" Blu-ray by continuing to buy inferior DVDs.


Those kinds of articles are usually entirely misleading.

Again, we can predict things until we're blue in the face (no pun intended), but at the same time, I think downloads are gonna pull their own with Blu-ray maybe not overcoming Blu-ray. That's not what I'm saying, but I am saying I think there will be a substantial market for both HD downloads and Blu-ray over time and that this will possibly prohibit Blu-ray from sharing the same success as DVD.

[quexos]

If it turns out to be successful I'd reckon 10 to 15 years.

[thegame]

See the problem i have is can something be that much better than blu ray...like blu to dvd are a big difference in terms of pq and sq. I don't see anything being that much better. The problem with those internet future proposal is internet serivce are capping their downloading/uploading limits. I have rogers and the limit is 60 gb a month then u pay 5 dollars or so for ever extra gb. I come very close to that limit, so an alternative for a new format over the internet might be really hard considering the rules by internet providers.

[P@t_Mtl]

Calling BD a niche is not right. Laserdic was a niche and a big one at that. The only place you could find it in Montreal back in the days was at Sam The Record Man, a music store.

You can find BD in Wall-Mart, Best Buy, Future Shop, Zellers, Amazon, Target, Columbia House, Chapters....never at the best of time could you ever hope of finding Laserdisc in so many locations back then.

[Tempest]

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema

This is the last disc format, imo.

Is it really? I highly doubt it..

- Hard Drives have made great gains but they are struggling to increase the size anymore. Not to mention if they fail, you need a disc format for backups. Also people perfer to have something physcial rather than just a download.

- Band width caps on downloads are becoming more common and the technology to transfer even BR quality isn't there and won't be for years.

- Flash memory although cheaper all the time, will always be more expensive than discs. They also can fail and be wiped clean with normal operation, unlike a disc.

What exactly are your reasons for it being the last format?

BR Discs could possibly increase in size, much larger than they are currently. Then there is Holographic Versatile Disc being developed that store 3.9 TB. How is it that Blu will be the last?

I see this comment shot around often but I think it is far far from what will really happen in the future.

[P@t_Mtl]

Originally Posted by Tempest

Is it really? I highly doubt it..

- Hard Drives have made great gains but they are struggling to increase the size anymore. Not to mention if they fail, you need a disc format for backups. Also people perfer to have something physcial rather than just a download.

- Band width caps on downloads are becoming more common and the technology to transfer even BR quality isn't there and won't be for years.

- Flash memory although cheaper all the time, will always be more expensive than discs. They also can fail and be wiped clean with normal operation, unlike a disc.

What exactly are your reasons for it being the last format?

BR Discs could possibly increase in size, much larger than they are currently. Then there is Holographic Versatile Disc being developed that store 3.9 TB. How is it that Blu will be the last?

I see this comment shot around often but I think it is far far from what will really happen in the future.

Totalt agree, everything on hard drive need to be backed up in case of failure. I can't see the disc formart going away any time soon.

[ckent22]

Originally Posted by Tempest

Is it really? I highly doubt it..

- Hard Drives have made great gains but they are struggling to increase the size anymore. Not to mention if they fail, you need a disc format for backups. Also people perfer to have something physcial rather than just a download.

- Band width caps on downloads are becoming more common and the technology to transfer even BR quality isn't there and won't be for years.

- Flash memory although cheaper all the time, will always be more expensive than discs. They also can fail and be wiped clean with normal operation, unlike a disc.

What exactly are your reasons for it being the last format?

BR Discs could possibly increase in size, much larger than they are currently. Then there is Holographic Versatile Disc being developed that store 3.9 TB. How is it that Blu will be the last?

I see this comment shot around often but I think it is far far from what will really happen in the future.

Your statements aren't entirely correct at all. Anything technology related first and foremost can fail. Discs aren't an exception. Discs can fail over time just like Hard Drives.

The size of Hard Drives will continue to increase with price continuing to come down. This is based off technological advancements as well as market patterns for prices of Hard Drives.

The latest external Hard Drive I saw was a 2 TB Hard Drive and for the average consumer not film buff who buys everything, then a 2 TB Hard Drive will be more than useful to hold their collection. Let's be realistic and understand that home video sales do well, but only a small percentage of us have very large size collections. Something larger will need to be in place for film buffs who have very large collections and this will more than likely take a while and give Blu-ray or the next disc based media a decent life span. But, their life span won't be forever.

I agree that discs will be around for a while, but I don't agree that hard drives will fail and that that's not the future. I do believe that Hard Drives and downloads will be the future. It's only a question of when. That's just my opinion though. In spite of them failing or having to be replaced, I see measures being taken to where you can either download them again without paying for them twice or other measures. Just my two cents.

[Batman1980]

My guess ^ for that is there will be two types of downloads in the future that studios will allow of their movies. The first kind is less expensive and only for rental purposes. The second kind is more expensive and they will let you download it again if necessary, that's the I want to own version.

[jw]

I bought my first 512mb jump drive 4 yrs ago, it cost me $40 bucks give or take. That's $80/gb. A month ago, I paid $15 for 8gb. That's $1.88/GB. We're looking at a 97.5% decrease in the cost of 1GB of flash memory. Declines like that are huge. At that rate, we could see $.05/GB in 4 yrs. Putting the cost of a 50gb drive (the equivalent of a Dual layer BD) at less than 3 bucks.

You can get a 1TB MyBook for 119.00 at WM, that is .12/GB, I know thats not a flash drive however its external memory

[Grumpz]

Originally Posted by jwbbud

You can get a 1TB MyBook for 119.00 at WM, that is .12/GB, I know thats not a flash drive however its external memory

Although it's not a flash drive, it just supports the belief that storage is becoming so cheap, it could easily replace what I consider, are clumsy pc's of plastic.

It's not to say the .mkv files or 1080p will be replaced, but the way in which the data is delivered could will be.

I for one loved downloading the latest episodes of Lost, copying them to my jump drive, and plugging it into the usb slot on the front of the PS3. It was fantastic. Now of course I stream it, which takes care of a step.

[Kirsty_Mc]

BD will be about for a while... at least until the patents start expiring and the companies look for the next new thing to sell and make some dosh out of.

As regards downloads, have a look at:-

http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2009/04/high_de...n_13.html#more

The BBC is going to start making some programmes available as a catchup service. It looks like a lot of folk are about to be caught out and find that their broadband package is not "HD Ready". Until things like this are sorted out, downloads are a non starter.

[Audiophile_At_Birth]

Go Blu!

[blu2]

Hard to predict how long a format will last.

The heavyweight champ of formats is still around and sales increased 89% last year!

http://blogs.laweekly.com/westcoasts...-2008-sales-f/

[PH3AR]

bout as long as DVD until they got a competitor