81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

i don't think its going to win the 16th, if it couldn't win last weeks numbers, its not going to win the 16th.

I predict HD-DVD winning that week if the BDA does not move/announce a MAJOR title to go up against it. Transformers will sell big numbers, surpassing 300 numbers easily considering how fast they managed to get this to HD-DVD. The movie will still be fresh in people's minds when they see it sitting on the shelves. It will remain a VERY big title throughout the rest of the year and this movie WILL sell HD-DVD players (at least at the retailers that actually carry players).

This is pure speculation, but all of these delays we keep seeing occuring with various Blu-ray titles recently could be a direct result of a decision to "move up" the release date of one of the biggie Blu-ray titles coming later in the month, like Spider-Man 3, or to replicate a title that has not been officially announced on Blu-ray.

Sony may have tinkered with some replication scheduling in order to manufacture more of a certain massive release title, like Spider-Man 3 (or some other big-name title), in order to get it to retail shelves to battle it out with Transformers on October 16th. Although this is highly unlikey, considering the advertising campaign for Spidey 3 was already in place before Transformers was even announced on HD-DVD, if I was in the BDA I would push for SOMETHING BIG to go up directly against Transformers or HD-DVD is going to own that week and we will NEVER hear the end of it and it WILL look like HD-DVD is thriving and that Blu-ray is losing ground.

[CAB]

Originally Posted by Scorxpion

I WISH They release one or two of their promises titles to be released later on BD like Batman Begins or Matrix (this time including at least DolbyTHD or PCM)

I not sure about Matrix selling on Blu. . . People who game won't buy this movie and the only Blu-ray players out there are just game consoles.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by CAB

I not sure about Matrix selling on Blu. . . People who game won't buy this movie and the only Blu-ray players out there are just game consoles.

People who game won't buy this movie? No offense but are you insane? The PS3 demographic is the demographic for the movie The Matrix.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

People who game won't buy this movie? No offense but are you insane? The PS3 demographic is the demographic for the movie The Matrix.

Also, there were some Matrix video games ... I remember I had Enter the Matrix on the original Xbox. It even ran in 1080i.

[Count Zero]

People who game won't buy this movie? No offense but are you insane? The PS3 demographic is the demographic for the movie The Matrix.

I think he was being sarcastic.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by Count Zero

I think he was being sarcastic.

Damn they need a sarcasm font asap!

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

Damn they need a sarcasm font asap!

Ouch, I had a tin ear on that one ... guess I'm in the minority of PS3 owners who will jump at the Matrix when it comes out.

[Scorxpion]

Originally Posted by CAB

I not sure about Matrix selling on Blu. . . People who game won't buy this movie and the only Blu-ray players out there are just game consoles.

300 on BD should be a good example for everyone

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

Not sure, I hadn't even checked actually.... just guessing they'll get it out before X-MAs.

My sources tell me it's Dec 18th. Weird to release a high boxoffice movie like that so close to Christmas however if you look at the competition the two weeks prior I kind of understand why they don't want to mess with those weeks releases. Still, Nov 27th sounds like a much better day to release it but right now I'm being told Dec 18th.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Slapper

if I was in the BDA I would push for SOMETHING BIG to go up directly against Transformers or HD-DVD is going to own that week and we will NEVER hear the end of it and it WILL look like HD-DVD is thriving and that Blu-ray is losing ground.

I fear the same! This Blu-Thon we have next week should have been put up against Transformers. Big BLU sales are needed that week as ALL major studios will be watching!!

Pro-B

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by CAB

I not sure about Matrix selling on Blu. . . People who game won't buy this movie and the only Blu-ray players out there are just game consoles.

I love the delivery of this joke... so flat. You just knew people would miss it.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Slapper

I predict HD-DVD winning that week if the BDA does not move/announce a MAJOR title to go up against it. Transformers will sell big numbers, surpassing 300 numbers easily considering how fast they managed to get this to HD-DVD. The movie will still be fresh in people's minds when they see it sitting on the shelves. It will remain a VERY big title throughout the rest of the year and this movie WILL sell HD-DVD players (at least at the retailers that actually carry players).

This is pure speculation, but all of these delays we keep seeing occuring with various Blu-ray titles recently could be a direct result of a decision to "move up" the release date of one of the biggie Blu-ray titles coming later in the month, like Spider-Man 3, or to replicate a title that has not been officially announced on Blu-ray.

Sony may have tinkered with some replication scheduling in order to manufacture more of a certain massive release title, like Spider-Man 3 (or some other big-name title), in order to get it to retail shelves to battle it out with Transformers on October 16th. Although this is highly unlikey, considering the advertising campaign for Spidey 3 was already in place before Transformers was even announced on HD-DVD, if I was in the BDA I would push for SOMETHING BIG to go up directly against Transformers or HD-DVD is going to own that week and we will NEVER hear the end of it and it WILL look like HD-DVD is thriving and that Blu-ray is losing ground.

My opinion is Transformers alone is not going sway the sales to HD side. Reason being is there is too much product in Oct for BluRay only. Even that week (Oct 16th) BluRay will win in the overall sales like it did just recently with BoG and Heroes going up against nothing.

Transformers is not the only movie that is releasing that week and the previous two weeks you see BIG exclusives that will sell on BR and will make sure Transformers will be a slight blip on the screen (just like BoG/Heroes). Fantastic 4 2 and 28 Weeks Later are going to sale pretty well after the intial dates and those two will defenitely prevent HD taking the crown that week. It will be closer than it was last time (what 58% to 42%). I'm guessing the week Transformers is released it'll be 55% to 45%. But that's as far as it's going to slip.

Don't be surprised if you don't see BR keep the 60+% though...it's very possible even with Transformers.

[GasCat]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

No one should question that Transformers is going to be huge, and it's going to have legs, at least 300 levels.

I'm not too sure on Transformers. From what I was reading people were seeing the film repeatedly (4-5 time) driving the box office numbers. They'll be buying the movie only once. We'll see what happens. I'd be surprised if it had the legs people are expecting. If Bay gets a percentage of the video profits it could be one reason why he was so angry. We'll see.

HD-DVD has gained 6 points as a result of Paramount. Was it worth the money? No sign that it was.

[Rob71]

Just throwing this out. Any chance Master and Commander along with a few others may be shifted to October 16. Or is this just wishful thinking?

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Rob71

Just throwing this out. Any chance Master and Commander along with a few others may be shifted to October 16. Or is this just wishful thinking?

No, that is wishful thinking. M&C has been delayed indefinitely.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

My opinion is Transformers alone is not going sway the sales to HD side. Reason being is there is too much product in Oct for BluRay only. Even that week (Oct 16th) BluRay will win in the overall sales like it did just recently with BoG and Heroes going up against nothing.

Blades of Glory was NOT a blockbuster and was NOT expected to move big numbers on HD-DVD. Heroes is is simply out of most people's price range so, it too did not sell big numbers. Transformers IS a blockbuster movie in the same category as 300 and in the same retail price range. The demographics on both are similar. 300 sold over 70,000 the first week on HD-DVD if I remember right. So, you can count on Transformers moving AT LEAST that many units considering all the "neutral" people will have NO choice but to buy the HD-DVD if they want it in hi-def.

What does Blu-ray have to counter that 70,000? FF 2, 28 Weeks Later, and Surf's up should still be selling well as they will have only been on the shelves for one or two weeks. But, that's not going to be enough to keep Blu-ray in the lead for the week of Oct. 16th. What I see is Transformers moving more than 100,000 units on HD-DVD the first week. I'm sure others feel that it will sell these numbers too. If you've been following the sales of this title on Amazon you'll see that it has been preselling very well since they made it available for pre-order.

If release schedules stay where they're at now Blu-ray may be looking at a 56/44 ratio...on the losing end.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Slapper

If release schedules stay where they're at now Blu-ray may be looking at a 56/44 ratio...on the losing end.

Hence why I think that this Blu-Thon sale should have been coordinated better for October 16th.

Pro-B

[TheFaze]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Hence why I think that this Blu-Thon sale should have been coordinated better for October 16th.

Pro-B

Just have a Blu-Thon sale part II. It is the year of the sequel, right?

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by TheFaze

Just have a Blu-Thon sale part II. It is the year of the sequel, right?

Threequel?

[LynxFX]

That's pretty much what I'm thinking Slapper. Just be prepared for the enslaught of HD DVD cheerleading when they finally win a week. Sad that it cost HD DVD $150m for it. Had that not gone through we would be looking at another record breaking week for BD.