Where in the world is 3DTV going??

[ADWyatt]

Two recent announcements regarding 3DTV have me scratching my head, leaving me perplexed as to the financial direction and intent that the new format is heading.

Panasonic wll be releasing its plasma 3D sets in Japan before selling them in America, and if I read the caption correctly it is believed that Japanese prices will show the 54" model in the states retailing for $6,000. If we take a thousand dollars off of that total for street discounting, that's still five grand.

At the same time as this announcement, Sony has released information stating that their entry-level 3D blu-ray player will be $199.99, a firmware upgrade this summer giving it full 3D capability.

And Sony's 3DTVs? No official price list has been released to the public, but an authorized Sony retailer has told me that his pricing sheet shows the suggested retail of the 900 series model to be $3,995. From past experience, I'm going to guess that he will be selling this unit for about $3,500. He didn't tell me the price on the 700 and 800 series of 3DTVs, as I didn't ask him for that information. Although the 900 will come with a built-in 3D decoder, I believe it will still be priced perhaps $500 higher than the comparable 2D model in its 60" size. (I believe that the 800 series has a maximum size of 55", which will suit most people. What it's cost will be, when buying the 3D decoder, I can't say.)

You might understand my confusion on pricing here. Plasma is supposed to be less expensive than LED, but apparently not when it comes to 3D. Sony 3D, while a little more reasonable at its price point, may still be $500 more than standard, and that too may turn off consumers. Yet 3D BD players are only marginally more expensive than 2D. After discounting at places like Wal-Mart, the difference in prices might not fund the cost of a value meal at McDonalds.

I'd like to hear your opinion on this, but here's where I believe 3DTV is going...

3DTV is guaranteed to succeed, because it's an add-on to current technology. In a few years, all TVs will be 3D as a matter of course, and the additional mariginal charge for 3D will be disguised in the price of a new TV. As well, all Blu-ray players will be 3D, with perhaps $30 to $40 added to their cost. 3D movie discs will cost between $5 and $10 more than 2D, depending on the popularity of the movie. (As for the discomfort of wearing glasses, in a few years nobody will even think about it. Most TV watching will be 2D, and people will routinely don the glasses for special 3D viewing. That is, until glassless 3D becomes perfected and affordable. And when that new technology becomes available, I fully guarantee you that someone will shout, "There's NO WAY that I'm not wearing glasses when I watch 3D!")

For the present day, 3D prices will be uncomforably high for much of the technology, and not simply to recoup development costs. It is well known that die-hard videophiles will pay exhorbitant prices for the latest technology, and since the buying public is slow to accept new technology anyway, it makes good sense to overprice merchandise. For those of us who are more sensible in our buying practices, I am estimating that the 4th quarter of 2011 will begin to see attractive hardware and software prices, along with a fairly reasonable stock of movie titles.

So waiting for the price of 3D to drop would make good sense, as with all new technology. Although...

...I really could use a new BD player for the livingroom, and a 3D blu-ray player would hardly cost any more than 2D. And my gosh, my new BD player would be so lonely without a 3DTV to go along with it. Not that I actually would buy such an overpriced thing this year. I'm just saying...