The Box Office Game/Contest & Discussion Thread

[Blu Titan]

Avatar back on top for Thursday with Shutter Island #2 .

1. Avatar $1,646,578

2. Shutter Island $1,620,023

3. Cop Out $1,119,400

4. The Crazies $906,141

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/

[Diesel]

Wow...


It hasn't been #1 since Feb. 11th.

[Lord_Stewie]

What a shock.

[Diesel]

Alice is outselling Avatar so far today (its opening day not its TODAY).


According to Finke, her insiders she talks to say the film may have a shot at $100M weekend



I won't believe that high of a figure until I see it.

That sort of figure is beyond unheard of. It would break the March opening weekend record by $30M.
Regardless, I believe my initial $53M or w/e I said will be much too low. I had no idea it was tracking as well as it was.

[Blu Titan]

Alice in Wonderland's $45 Million Friday


Alice 2.jpg

From Nikkie Finke's site:

Disney's Alice In Wonderland is a monster hit. It clearly becomes the best March release ever with $45 million on Friday. If that holds up, the Tim Burton-directed, Johnny Depp starring fantasy flick could have a $115M-$120M opening weekend for the biggest 3D pic debut ever. (These numbers are blowing away Avatar's first weekend.)

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

[Diesel]

Holy.....crap


None of us will even get close.



If her estimates hold, I'll be close for 3 of the top 5:




1. Alice In Wonderland (Disney) NEW [3,728 Theaters]
Friday $45M, Estimated Weekend $120M

2. Brooklyn's Finest (Overture) NEW [1,936 Theaters]
Friday $5.2M, Estimated Weekend $14.5M

3. Shutter Island (Paramount) Week 3 [3,178 Theaters]
Friday $4.0M, Estimated Weekend $13.5M, Estimated Cume $95.5M

4. Cop Out (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,150 Theaters]
Friday $3.0M (-50%), Estimated Weekend $9.5M, Estimated Cume $32.2M

5. The Crazies (Overture) Week 2 [2,479 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M (-58%), Estimated Weekend $7.5M, Estimated Cume $27.4M

7. Avatar (Fox) [2,163 Theaters] Week 12
Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $5.5M, Estimated Cume $717.7M

Originally Posted by Diesel

1. Alice in Wonderland - $53.2M
Its numbers will be helped by the 3D ticket prices.

2. Shutter Island - $13.7M
It declined about 45% last weekend, but I don't think it will decline quite as much this weekend. It'll drop 40% imo.

3. Avatar - $10.3M
It has showed a history of very small drops, so I think it drops by 18% if not for Alice taking 3D screens away from it. That makes the drop bigger, coming in at a 25% decline.

4. Cop Out - $8M
I don't think this one will hold that well. About a 55% drop.

5. The Crazies - $7M
This one is just a blind guess really, 55% drop as well.

[Foggy]

I don't think Alice will hold up as well as Avatar, The 3D was lame with Alice.

[GreenScar]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Alice in Wonderland's $45 Million Friday

GOOD-NESS

I just don't get it, and agree with Foggy on the drop this will experience. Seems like Burton still has a lot of fans.

[Diesel]

Originally Posted by Foggy

I don't think Alice will hold up as well as Avatar, The 3D was lame with Alice.

Me either.

50% drop next week at least.

[GreenScar]

It'll be interesting to see the actuals when they come out. Variety is saying over $30 million Friday which is not quite $45. Fridays numbers will drop into Saturday as they included Midnight showings.

[Diesel]

BOM says $41M friday for Alice

$4.7M for Brooklyn

$3.9M for Shutter Island

$2.8M for Cop Out

$2.3M for Crazies

$1.9M for Avatar


Avatar will likely beat Crazies and Cop Out (maybe even Shutter Island) on Saturday, as it typically ranks a few places higher on Saturday than Friday.

[Lord_Stewie]

Originally Posted by Diesel

Me either.

50% drop next week at least.

It will have a massive drop. Thats a normal reaction for some movies released in March and April on opening weekend the box office numbers soar and the following they drop.

[CZAR]

All I know is I am the only who called Brooklyn's Finest for 2nd place! Got Em!!

[Diesel]

Originally Posted by CZAR

All I know is I am the only who called Brooklyn's Finest for 2nd place! Got Em!!

Those are just early estimates based on Friday's numbers and it is only ahead of Shutter by $1mil.

Things could still change.

But if they don't on Monday....then you can gloat

[CZAR]

Originally Posted by Diesel

Those are just early estimates based on Friday's numbers and it is only ahead of Shutter by $1mil.

Things could still change.

But if they don't on Monday....then you can gloat

No doubt. It will finish number 2 man. Also I heard nuthin but great things about the film also. 2 of my friends saw it lastnight and they both absolutely loved it. Got Em!!

[LynxFX]

Holy hell Alice! Well the Friday take was close to what I predicted for the weekend. lol

I'm very surprised it did that well. Everytime the trailer played the audience was silent, no one in my circle is talking about it and the reviews have been mixed. Oh well, kudos to the team!

[Diesel]

Finke says $1.9M on Friday for Avatar now but $5.5M for the whole weekend.

That is only a difference of $3.6M...which it should come close to making just tomorrow.

[blu-ray-the-king]

finke always gives avatar low numbers i wonder why

[Diesel]

Saturday PM estimates from Finke, expect more refined estimates from BOM late tomorrow morning (my time at least)

SATURDAY PM UPDATE: Disney's Alice In Wonderland is a monster hit. It clearly becomes the biggest 3D release ever and the best March release ever and the highest grossing movie of 2010 with $41 million on Friday and $45 million on Saturday because of the higher 3D ticket prices. The Tim Burton-directed, Johnny Depp-starring fantasy flick posted a $115+M opening weekend with numbers blowing away Avatar's first Fri-Sat-Sun. IMAX on Friday had the biggest day in their history with $4.3M for Alice. The weekend is looking like $11+M, also a record for IMAX.

The only other major newcomer this weekend was Overture's Brooklyn's Finest directed by Antoine Fuqua and starring Richard Gere, Don Cheadle and Ethan Hawke opened like most R-rated action films: it had a $4.7M Friday and $5.5M Saturday for a $13.5M weekend.



Here's the Top 10 as of Saturday. (Numbers will be refined in the morning.)

1. Alice In Wonderland (Disney) NEW [3,728 Theaters]
Friday $41M, Saturday $45M, Weekend $115+M

2. Brooklyn's Finest (Overture) NEW [1,936 Theaters]
Friday $4.7M, Saturday $5.5M, Weekend $13.5M

3. Shutter Island (Paramount) Week 3 [3,178 Theaters]
Friday $4.0M, Saturday $6.1M, Weekend $13.5M, Cume $96.0M

4. Cop Out (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,150 Theaters]
Friday $2.8M, Saturday $4.2M, Weekend $9.2M, Cume $32.4M

5. Avatar (Fox) [2,163 Theaters] Week 12
Friday $1.9M, Saturday $3.7M, Weekend $7.6M, Estimated Cume $720.0M

6. The Crazies (Overture) Week 2 [2,479 Theaters]
Friday $2.3M, Saturday $3.0M, Weekend $6.9M, Cume $27.3M

7. Valentine's Day (Warner Bros) Week 4 [3,040 Theaters]
Friday $1.4M, Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated Cume $106.4M

8. Percy Jackson (Fox) Week 4 [2,994 Theaters]
Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $5.2M, Estimated Cume $78.0M

9. Dear John (Sony) Week 5 [2,496 Theaters]
Friday $965K, Saturday $1.3M, Weekend $3.0M, Estimated Cume $76.8M

10. Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight) Week 12 [1,274 Theaters]
Friday $925K, Estimated Weekend $3.5M, Estimated Cume $29.6M

Well I was right, it looks like Avatar pulled in that $3.6M on Saturday

Shutter Island and Brooklyn's Finest are going to be a close fight for 2nd
That one did much better than I expected it too, especially with a good bit lower theater count the most of the other movies.

Avatar slipped more than I expected, I was off by $3M for it and $1M for Cop Out. Looks like I'll be right on the money for Shutter Island and The Crazies (but it won't finish in the spot I thought it would with Brooklyn's Finest doing so well).

We all missed Alice by quite a bit


So, I got the #1 right (but wasn't the closest, I think someone said $75M), might get #2 right if Shutter Island edges out Brooklyn's Finest and will get #4 right.

[CZAR]

Originally Posted by Diesel

Saturday PM estimates from Finke, expect more refined estimates from BOM late tomorrow morning (my time at least)




Well I was right, it looks like Avatar pulled in that $3.6M on Saturday

Shutter Island and Brooklyn's Finest are going to be a close fight for 2nd
That one did much better than I expected it too, especially with a good bit lower theater count the most of the other movies.

Avatar slipped more than I expected, I was off by $3M for it and $1M for Cop Out. Looks like I'll be right on the money for Shutter Island and The Crazies (but it won't finish in the spot I thought it would with Brooklyn's Finest doing so well).

We all missed Alice by quite a bit


So, I got the #1 right (but wasn't the closest, I think someone said $75M), might get #2 right if Shutter Island edges out Brooklyn's Finest and will get #4 right.

Well I havnt checked everyones picks but I said Alice would make 78 mill and I think I am the only one who had Brooklyn's Finest in 2nd place. Also I could have all 5 spots correct as far as the order goes if somehow Avatar could overtake Cop Out. Well see how it shapes up tomorrow. Got Em!!