Warner- Bewkes new CEO January 2, 2008 - Discuss

[Sonar5]

Warner- Bewkes new CEO January 2, 2008 - Discuss

Ok, This has been bothering me for the last week (Since Monday), since I was reading up on it. I figured this would be the place to bring it up. I have not seen this talked about anywhere else, and I was thinking of posting it in a thread at AVS, but I wanted our discussion on it. I'm not even sure some of this is relevant to any insiders over here. If not, I'll post it over there, where it is sure to be spun.

I spent some years working for a wall street firm with a bull for their logo. I had Many Laughs there.

In that regard, I've read quite a few articles, news reports, analyst comments, and research reports regarding Warner/Time Warner over the last week. Has anyone considered the following:

1) Time warner gets a new Leader on January 2nd. Jeffrey Bewkes

2) Lots of professionals are talking about the Company dumping the Following:
a) Dump Time warner Cable (sell-off)
b) Dump AOL (sell-off)
c) Dump Time (Sell-Off)

3) Warner is one of the profitable portions of the company right now.

4) Time Warners stock (TWX) has plummeted, now at $16.65 at close Friday. Losing over 22%+ Over the last year while the S & P 500 is in Positive territory over the last year.

5) There will be huge pressure to gain back stockholder value on the new CEO Jeffrey Bewkes. many say this is the #1 Priority.

6) I read a couple articles where a banker for GE when asked about a Warner/ NBC-Universal Merger was told "Talk to us after the '08 Olympics". NBC is Airing Beijing Olympics.

7) Quite a few articles talk about Time Warner piecing out portions of the Company, and While Bewkes is currently on Holiday, here are the magic dates.

8) CES Announcements, January 6th.. Ok we all know something may or may not happen.

9) February 6th, 2008.Earnings and Analyst Conference Call. More Important than CES, IMHO. This is his opportunity to explain their Q4 earnings, Their 2007 year, and his future plans and vision for the Company.

IMHO, this means if Nothing is announced by CES or at CES, this is the magic date where lead-in will disclose what the plans are for the overall Company and those announcements will catapult future synergies within the format war.

10) If Bewkes plans to break up the Company, most say this will happen quickly, so that if NBC/Universal is in the mix after the Olympics, The Company will already have in place their ability after a NBC/Universal merge to place the new Warner/Universal on Par with Viacom.

a) If Universal dumps that idiot Ken Graffeo anytime soon, that is good for Blu, Good for Future Warner/Universal Merger, and it's game over for hd-dvd. If he stays and the rest of the Analyst Bewkes Predictions hold true, what do we think will happen?

Folks, this is and always was about money.

Shareholders decide fates of Companies in their demands, so here goes.

I) Warner HAS to decide one format over the other. No choice, IMHO, and this will be made at the latest by February 6th Q4 Earnings call at 10:30am ET. for Time Warner. May be made earlier. So when Warner said no decision has been made, IMHO, that is because the entire table changes hands on January 2, 2008 when Bewkes takes over. And since the studio is going to be a huge concern going forward, especially if NBC/Universal goes in play after the Olympics, Then Bewkes is the guy. Ok, so is Alan Horn and Barry Meyer. (Unless they are fired for going Neutral in the first place. (Now how do we get PS3's into Bewkes grandkids hands immediately....)

If no announcement is made by CES, or February 6th, then look for Job Changes as clues within the Warner and Universal Families that will be hints as to Business Strategy for a future merger.

II) If that Idiot Graffeo stays, how is his opinion mitigated to ensure Warner doesn't ignore facts, how important is his Opinion and Influence within GE, and hopefully Jeff Imelt dumps his lying ass sooner rather than later. So if Warner instead looks to a future with Universal and positions the company to place it in an on-par business strategy. Think Distribution, and hd-dvd. If no announcement is made at CES, then one way mitigation can be done is if Retailers announce blu only business strategies at CES, thereby forcing Bewkes and the boys to take reality into consideration, and not just a Warner/NBC-Universal business alignment strategy. Come on best Buy, go Blu baby....

(That is my whole fear folks, and that is why I hesitated to write this whole thing) If Warner looks to the Future after Bewkes gets them all together shortly after January 2nd, and Bewkes is looking for a Warner/NBC-Universal Marriage to challenge Viacom in the Industry down the line, this may be a reason for an adverse decision against our views. Sorry, but that is my read right now.

III) Ok here is what Warner should do, IMHO.
a) Dump hd-dvd, go Blu-Ray 100%. Evidence is there, facts are there, sales are there.
b) Dump AOL, Time, and Cable.
c) Buy NBC/Universal

And wala, Shareholder value is restored, stock returns to glory, splits, dividend gains, happy days are here again, and finally that AOL dumbass buy is long forgotten.

One has to look at Stock Price for Warner to make its future decisions, and if the Studio after a breakup is going to be a main concern, this format war is huge to that decision thus bringing all of this into play.

Disclaimer: I am no insider, and I am no longer in the financial Industry. I also hold no Warner stock unless it's in my mutual funds, but I'm not digging to find out. Although as a value play, it does look pretty good right now. All of this is simply my conjecture and opinion the way I see it.

Happy New Year,
Joe