Warner- Bewkes new CEO January 2, 2008 - Discuss

[Sonar5]

Warner- Bewkes new CEO January 2, 2008 - Discuss

Ok, This has been bothering me for the last week (Since Monday), since I was reading up on it. I figured this would be the place to bring it up. I have not seen this talked about anywhere else, and I was thinking of posting it in a thread at AVS, but I wanted our discussion on it. I'm not even sure some of this is relevant to any insiders over here. If not, I'll post it over there, where it is sure to be spun.

I spent some years working for a wall street firm with a bull for their logo. I had Many Laughs there.

In that regard, I've read quite a few articles, news reports, analyst comments, and research reports regarding Warner/Time Warner over the last week. Has anyone considered the following:

1) Time warner gets a new Leader on January 2nd. Jeffrey Bewkes

2) Lots of professionals are talking about the Company dumping the Following:
a) Dump Time warner Cable (sell-off)
b) Dump AOL (sell-off)
c) Dump Time (Sell-Off)

3) Warner is one of the profitable portions of the company right now.

4) Time Warners stock (TWX) has plummeted, now at $16.65 at close Friday. Losing over 22%+ Over the last year while the S & P 500 is in Positive territory over the last year.

5) There will be huge pressure to gain back stockholder value on the new CEO Jeffrey Bewkes. many say this is the #1 Priority.

6) I read a couple articles where a banker for GE when asked about a Warner/ NBC-Universal Merger was told "Talk to us after the '08 Olympics". NBC is Airing Beijing Olympics.

7) Quite a few articles talk about Time Warner piecing out portions of the Company, and While Bewkes is currently on Holiday, here are the magic dates.

8) CES Announcements, January 6th.. Ok we all know something may or may not happen.

9) February 6th, 2008.Earnings and Analyst Conference Call. More Important than CES, IMHO. This is his opportunity to explain their Q4 earnings, Their 2007 year, and his future plans and vision for the Company.

IMHO, this means if Nothing is announced by CES or at CES, this is the magic date where lead-in will disclose what the plans are for the overall Company and those announcements will catapult future synergies within the format war.

10) If Bewkes plans to break up the Company, most say this will happen quickly, so that if NBC/Universal is in the mix after the Olympics, The Company will already have in place their ability after a NBC/Universal merge to place the new Warner/Universal on Par with Viacom.

a) If Universal dumps that idiot Ken Graffeo anytime soon, that is good for Blu, Good for Future Warner/Universal Merger, and it's game over for hd-dvd. If he stays and the rest of the Analyst Bewkes Predictions hold true, what do we think will happen?

Folks, this is and always was about money.

Shareholders decide fates of Companies in their demands, so here goes.

I) Warner HAS to decide one format over the other. No choice, IMHO, and this will be made at the latest by February 6th Q4 Earnings call at 10:30am ET. for Time Warner. May be made earlier. So when Warner said no decision has been made, IMHO, that is because the entire table changes hands on January 2, 2008 when Bewkes takes over. And since the studio is going to be a huge concern going forward, especially if NBC/Universal goes in play after the Olympics, Then Bewkes is the guy. Ok, so is Alan Horn and Barry Meyer. (Unless they are fired for going Neutral in the first place. (Now how do we get PS3's into Bewkes grandkids hands immediately....)

If no announcement is made by CES, or February 6th, then look for Job Changes as clues within the Warner and Universal Families that will be hints as to Business Strategy for a future merger.

II) If that Idiot Graffeo stays, how is his opinion mitigated to ensure Warner doesn't ignore facts, how important is his Opinion and Influence within GE, and hopefully Jeff Imelt dumps his lying ass sooner rather than later. So if Warner instead looks to a future with Universal and positions the company to place it in an on-par business strategy. Think Distribution, and hd-dvd. If no announcement is made at CES, then one way mitigation can be done is if Retailers announce blu only business strategies at CES, thereby forcing Bewkes and the boys to take reality into consideration, and not just a Warner/NBC-Universal business alignment strategy. Come on best Buy, go Blu baby....

(That is my whole fear folks, and that is why I hesitated to write this whole thing) If Warner looks to the Future after Bewkes gets them all together shortly after January 2nd, and Bewkes is looking for a Warner/NBC-Universal Marriage to challenge Viacom in the Industry down the line, this may be a reason for an adverse decision against our views. Sorry, but that is my read right now.

III) Ok here is what Warner should do, IMHO.
a) Dump hd-dvd, go Blu-Ray 100%. Evidence is there, facts are there, sales are there.
b) Dump AOL, Time, and Cable.
c) Buy NBC/Universal

And wala, Shareholder value is restored, stock returns to glory, splits, dividend gains, happy days are here again, and finally that AOL dumbass buy is long forgotten.

One has to look at Stock Price for Warner to make its future decisions, and if the Studio after a breakup is going to be a main concern, this format war is huge to that decision thus bringing all of this into play.

Disclaimer: I am no insider, and I am no longer in the financial Industry. I also hold no Warner stock unless it's in my mutual funds, but I'm not digging to find out. Although as a value play, it does look pretty good right now. All of this is simply my conjecture and opinion the way I see it.

Happy New Year,
Joe

[AaronSCH]

It is simple really. I've said it once and I'll say it again. If HDM is to move beyond niche status, Warner must go Blu-ray exclusive. If they embrace HD DVD it actually splits things evenly and the vast majority of consumers will dismiss both formats. However, if Warner chooses Blu-ray, the pressure on Universal and Paramount to at least go neutral will be overwhelming. In fact, I don't think they could hold out through Christmas 2008. Warner should do it now before more consumers are negatively affected by the decision.

I also believe the Blu-ray supporting studios should do what Disney did with their "Limited Issue" titles way back in the early days of DVD. They should take the top titles in their catalogs and release them for a limited time until more consumers come aboard. This would be a sweet marketing move that could increase awareness and sale of Blu-ray compatible machines. Putting these titles on moratorium shortly after release would guarantee retail shelf space and would move the titles quickly at premium pricng. They should stop releasing so many B grade titles and get to the good stuff ASAP.

[powerSURG]

That was a lot of information, but it was a good read. Thank you for sharing.

Tbe honest though, I don't know what to make of it. Am I understanding correctly? Do you say that Warner would purchase, thus run NBC/Universal? If so, where does (if at all) Microsoft fall into the picture? I thought Microsoft was part owner of NBC.

[JAGUAR1977]

All you need to know is this Bewkes guy was one of the major influences for WB going neutral, rather than HD-DVD exclusive.

Since, many of those pro HD-DVD execs have moved on.

[Crackbone]

Nice take Sonar.

My fear here with this latest MS deal, is that because Warner's stock is in the dumper, they might be so inclined to pick up a deal that involves a nice tidy pay out.

I think the changing of the guard @ Time Warner is the best hope we have for having BD as the chosen format for the future. Whether they are under pressure to take a up front cash deal remains to be seen.

[powerSURG]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

All you need to know is this Bewkes guy was one of the major influences for WB going neutral, rather than HD-DVD exclusive.

Since, many of those pro HD-DVD execs have moved on.

I see, thanks! Good news then, here's to hoping!

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by Crackbone

Nice take Sonar.

My fear here with this latest MS deal, is that because Warner's stock is in the dumper, they might be so inclined to pick up a deal that involves a nice tidy pay out.

I think the changing of the guard @ Time Warner is the best hope we have for having BD as the chosen format for the future. Whether they are under pressure to take a up front cash deal remains to be seen.

IMHO, no need for a payout to Warner. Warner is one of the profitable parts of TWX right now. I don't think they need a payout.

It's the synergies of business alignment post break-up and how it plays into the format decision that worries me.

As to the MS talk. I don't think it's a big deal because warner wants to blaze its own trail when it comes to digital. Bewkes likes digital and has apparently expressed it as a pillar.

[PaulGo]

Warner would have an anti-trust problem attempting to but NBC/Universal. The are already a part owner on CW and they probably would have problems with the Studio merger part also.

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by powerSURG

That was a lot of information, but it was a good read. Thank you for sharing.

To be honest though, I don't know what to make of it. Am I understanding correctly? Do you say that Warner would purchase, thus run NBC/Universal? If so, where does (if at all) Microsoft fall into the picture? I thought Microsoft was part owner of NBC.

Yes, Warner would buy NBC/Universal possibly. Very rumory talk from the bankers standpoint.

MSFT would be left to their own devices. I see msft going game route through game downloads anyway, but the fiber optic isn't up to full snuff yet. (dumbass cable companies). Me, I have FIOS.

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

Warner would have an anti-trust problem attempting to but NBC/Universal. The are already a part owner on CW and they probably would have problems with the Studio merger part also.

Disagree,

Disney has ABC
Viacom /CBS stuff....

As for Studio Mergers, every merger has problems, but that does not stop them form occurring. They are worked out. It certainly isn't a problem free opportunity, but it would put them on an even keel with Viacom.

Also the only way this could occur is if the Cable is spun off first.

So what specifically are you saying would be the anti-trust problem?

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Sonar5

5) There will be huge pressure to gain back stockholder value on the new CEO Jeffrey Bewkes. many say this is the #1 Priority.

I expect that is the #1 priority of every CEO.

So:

A) Keep two costly HDM productions
B) Go HD DVD exclusive and hope something comes along sometime to kick start disc sales
C) Go Blu-ray and push it like crazy

But, the unknown factor is how a massive bribe would play with the CEO's fiduciary responsibilities.

The COO works to make the company successful. The CEO works to make the stock successful.

Gary

[powerSURG]

Originally Posted by Sonar5

Yes, Warner would buy NBC/Universal possibly. Very rumory talk from the bankers standpoint.

MSFT would be left to their own devices. I see msft going game route through game downloads anyway, but the fiber optic isn't up to full snuff yet. (dumbass cable companies). Me, I have FIOS.

I wish I had FIOS. I can't wait to move back to So Cal. Everything you could ever want, all within reach. I've really come to appreciate that place. (that'll happen to you when you get stationed in South Carolina--no offense to any south carolinians)

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by powerSURG

I wish I had FIOS. I can't wait to move back to So Cal. Everything you could ever want, all within reach. I've really come to appreciate that place. (that'll happen to you when you get stationed in South Carolina--no offense to any south carolinians)

ohh, do I read a Semper Fi! in there....

I have 3 HD TV's, and 3 FIOS HD Boxes.... 1 DVR. FIOS Rocks....

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

I expect that is the #1 priority of every CEO.

So:

A) Keep two costly HDM productions
B) Go HD DVD exclusive and hope something comes along sometime to kick start disc sales
C) Go Blu-ray and push it like crazy

But, the unknown factor is how a massive bribe would play with the CEO's fiduciary responsibilities.

The COO works to make the company successful. The CEO works to make the stock successful.

Gary

I don't see a bribe in the picture on the warner side. I really don't. Too big a company, too much opportunity for other money via spinoffs and selloffs.

I keep thinking of the Accountant analogy within Warner regarding all their snafu's.

"How do we ensure we don't lose any more thousands and thousands of dollars in production snafu's. HP, etc...."

Simple, Only have one format, no more problem, no more returns of wrong discs.

Besides Bewkes contract basically gives him a walkout if he is not named Chairman when Parsons steps out at end of 2008 according to some articles.

[scoobiesnackarff]

Originally Posted by powerSURG

I wish I had FIOS. I can't wait to move back to So Cal. Everything you could ever want, all within reach. I've really come to appreciate that place. (that'll happen to you when you get stationed in South Carolina--no offense to any south carolinians)

I feel your pain on that. Born and raised in the San Fernando Valley for 27 years, then moved up to Spokane, WA so my wife could live closer to her family for alittle. Her father is retired Air Force up here. Man, I have fallen in love with So Cali and I am not even there anymore lol.

Alan

[turboedguy]

Originally Posted by scoobiesnackarff

I feel your pain on that. Born and raised in the San Fernando Valley for 27 years, then moved up to Spokane, WA so my wife could live closer to her family for alittle. Her father is retired Air Force up here. Man, I have fallen in love with So Cali and I am not even there anymore lol.

Alan

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...arch&plindex=0

[blckshp]

Time Warner Cable doesn't operate under the same umbrella as Time Warner Inc anymore. They were spun off earlier this year and their stock symbol is TWC. Contrary to your post, the Cable portion of Time Warner was one of the most profitable areas of Time Warner Inc.

AOHell is already being revamped to be nothing more than a news portal and a source of advertising revenue.

I doubt you will ever see a split between Time and Warner. They have been together too long and despite the failing of print, the Time magazine business still isn't doing that bad.

Also, nobody has considered how much Time Warner really dislikes Microsoft and I doubt very seriously that Time Warner would ever put their media in any type of exclusive deal with Microsoft. Their dislike was one of the driving reasons behind the AOL-Time Warner merger.

As for all the problems with AOL, those problems were inherited with the merger. I suspect that Steve Case, after already seeing the dotcom bust, knew that AOL's days were numbered. The aquisition of AOL and it's bad books cost Time Warner quite a bit of money and many of their stockholders are still not happy with how things have worked out. That alone leads me to believe that they would not be interested in another movie studio's assets. They got rid of MGM and concentrated on Warner Bros and their HBO Subscription service, both of which have been very profitable for them.

[JAGUAR1977]

When WB were HD-DVD exclusive.


'Meanwhile, Sony's camp received help winning over one influential studio from an unlikely source. Raider Carl C. Icahn, one of Time Warner's largest shareholders, began pressuring the studio to find ways to boost its stock price earlier this year. Despite Time Warner's long alliance with Toshiba, CEO Richard Parsons asked Jeff Bewkes, chairman of the company's entertainment unit, to reconsider the best way to recharge DVD sales. Bewkes decided that the studio should forget appearances and back Blu-ray if it was the format most likely to win consumers' hearts. "Blu-ray's potential for more capacity started looking better and better," said one Hollywood executive.'

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

When WB were HD-DVD exclusive.


'Meanwhile, Sony's camp received help winning over one influential studio from an unlikely source. Raider Carl C. Icahn, one of Time Warner's largest shareholders, began pressuring the studio to find ways to boost its stock price earlier this year. Despite Time Warner's long alliance with Toshiba, CEO Richard Parsons asked Jeff Bewkes, chairman of the company's entertainment unit, to reconsider the best way to recharge DVD sales. Bewkes decided that the studio should forget appearances and back Blu-ray if it was the format most likely to win consumers' hearts. "Blu-ray's potential for more capacity started looking better and better," said one Hollywood executive.'

Bewkes said that back in about October 2005, quite a long time ago and IMHO, not very relevant to be used as a quote right now. Too dated. It is a very different market compared to the atmosphere back then.

[scoobiesnackarff]

Originally Posted by turboedguy

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...arch&plindex=0

PERFECT Turbo, THANK YOU lol


Alan