No need to be excited/gloat over NPD this week...for either side

[stockstar1138]

So blu-ray handed a clear 2:1 smackdown to hd dvd hardware this week, however there are some things that we need to consider before we go around claiming that these numbers have put hd dvd 6 feet under, and that these numbers are truly 2:1.

1. Wal-mart is not included in these totals. Now while I have been a staunch FUDbuster of a lot of HD DVD fanboys claims that Wal-mart sells this incredibly high amount of software and that the Nielsens are skewed every week because of it, despite most stores having more blu-ray software for sale, I think a lot of us could agree that Wal-mart stocks and most likely sells more hd dvd hardware.

2. A lot of these blu-ray players are getting given away with HDTVs. There is no guarentee when something is given away that it is going to be used. Giving away a blu-ray player with a HDTV did not allow the consumer to choose blu-ray, it forced it on him, meaning while we get a tally in the blu column for the week, it might be a false tally, meaning blu-ray numbers are higher than they should be.

3. HD DVD showed a very large increase in sales, despite many saying the format is dead. A dead format should not be selling at any price and the fact that HD DVD had a 500% increase, means it is not as dead as we might have hoped.

4. Blu-ray sales dropped 25%. 25% is statistically significant and one has to assume that there were a statistically significant amount of people this week who chose HD DVD instead of blu-ray. With the super bowl next week, HDTV sales should have been up, meaning blu-ray sales should have been up, but they wern't.

Now to look at why HD DVD might not have sold as well. These factors cannot be ignored as HD DVD might not have done nearly as well as some red boys want to believe.

1. Game consoles were not included. While PS3 surely destroyed the add-on in sales, even assuming even the standard 20% of PS3 owners use blu-ray and 1/3 of all HD DVD players sold are the add on we get a number that looks like this. PS3 used for BD - approx. 10k (using vgcharts). xbox add on - approx. 3000. Blu-ray picks up approx. a 7k lead right here. People are buying the PS3 for blu-ray and this is certainly eating up into standalone

2. Many HD DVD players were probably sold as upconverting players, meaning a similar effect as blu-ray players being given away with HDTVs.

3. Stores are feeling the need to lower HD DVD prices (avg. Price was $137) below the already ridiculously low priced/low margin MSRP. Meaning stores MAY be trying to liquidating inventory. I know blu-ray is sold lower than MSRP to, but blu-ray MSRPs are still very high and not being set due to desperation.

4. Many players were bought as "backup" players.

5. Many players were bought by blu-ray fans simply as a relatively cheap, temporary solution to not having Universal/Paramount content, with no intention to ever truly support HD DVD.

any more factors? thoughts?