Article: Consumers urged to pick new DVD format

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Originally Posted by Leo1016

Chinese-made HD DVD players selling for $199 are expected to hit store shelves by December, while Sony is widely expected to cut the cost of its Blu-ray machine to as low as $299 by year's end.

"When that occurs, the studios and Sony are going to pull out the big guns," said Phillip Swann, president of the technology-oriented Web site TVpredictions.com. "They are going to release more titles, big titles, and really go for the kill this holiday season."

Somebody is expecting it, but I still can't see how it can be done. Very conservative BOM estimations put the cost of an HD DVD player at $200 for the manufacturer. And that ignores manufacturing, shipping, support, warranty and promotion.

Please, I invite someone to go at this estimation and tell me where I could be wrong:

Drive: $50
SoC: $20 (For all the non-HDi stuff)
CPU: $40 (For HDi)
Misc parts: $50 (DRAM, Flash, power supply, case, etc.)
Royalties: $40

Cost: $200