Carmack(ID Software) Suspects PS4 Will Be First To Market?

[Toxa]

Biggest Bullshit Ever

[Marine Mike]

Originally Posted by Toxa

Biggest Bullshit Ever

I don't think thats entirely bullshit if Sony can do what Valve can do with Steam on the PC.

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

I don't think thats entirely bullshit if Sony can do what Valve can do with Steam on the PC.

Do you think that they would really bring down a hammer like that on all the retailers (Best Buy, Target, etc.) and secondary sellers (Gamestop, Gamefly)?

[Blu-Generation]

Isn't this the same logic as Digital download killing Blu-ray. How many time has that logic fail? Blu-ray is still here, it's still growing, and if anything, the sign are saying Blu-ray will be here for the next 4+ years.

If anything, it's the system without media disc that have a bigger chance at failing. People still want to hold their games collection in their hands. And movie as well.

Digital distribution is an option, not a solution. Not anytime soon anyway.

[Seeking_Alpha]

Originally Posted by ryan69969

Do you think that they would really bring down a hammer like that on all the retailers (Best Buy, Target, etc.) and secondary sellers (Gamestop, Gamefly)?

Sure, because with online only no more sharing profits with retailers, all the gravy will be Sony's.

[alphapyro]

Just can't see it happening. It would be a foolish move... I'd be very hesitant to spend long times downloading content for AAA titles I command and expect from game publishers to provide me for my shiney box.



We still have DVDs and Blu-rays, too. People expect their game consoles (except wii owners who scratch their heads and go, "it really doesn't play DVDs?") to also be their DVD or blu-ray player.

[androvsky]

He only said that one of the current consoles makers is likely to move to download only. I'd bet on MS making that move before Sony. They just launched their service to download full 360 games, and since those are limited to a little over 6 GBs per disc, it's much more viable for the 360 than the PS3.

The successor to the Wii is even more likely to go DD-only, since Nintendo's games just aren't that big download-wise; Brawl was the only game to require a dual-layer DVD, and I doubt the next Wii would suddenly have huge disc-space requirements. That, and the market they're developing is much less likely to pre-order games from Gamestop and other retailers, so they don't depend nearly as much on the retail connection.

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by androvsky

The successor to the Wii is even more likely to go DD-only, since Nintendo's games just aren't that big download-wise; Brawl was the only game to require a dual-layer DVD, and I doubt the next Wii would suddenly have huge disc-space requirements. That, and the market they're developing is much less likely to pre-order games from Gamestop and other retailers, so they don't depend nearly as much on the retail connection.

I don't know. My sister and my folks have Wiis. They very much depend on that retail chain being there to inform their purchases because they aren't techie, per se gamer-types...and that is exactly the consumer that Nintendo has been targeting.

[Blu-Generation]

Originally Posted by androvsky

He only said that one of the current consoles makers is likely to move to download only. I'd bet on MS making that move before Sony. They just launched their service to download full 360 games, and since those are limited to a little over 6 GBs per disc, it's much more viable for the 360 than the PS3.

That may be possible. For the next Microsoft system.

But, I kind of doubt MS would want to go download exclusive next gen. Seeing how they are so proud of multiplat games selling better in the market than PS3 version. If all of a sudden they jump to digital downloads only, then they leave the real world market wide open to sony.

Now gamestop employee will have a hard time promoting to their customer. Seeing that all they will have in stock are PS titles. Best buy, wal-mart, will all do the same.

People who are less tech-junkie will go out and see games only on PS4. Wouldn't that be something.

[pecansam]

Originally Posted by androvsky

The successor to the Wii is even more likely to go DD-only, since Nintendo's games just aren't that big download-wise; Brawl was the only game to require a dual-layer DVD, and I doubt the next Wii would suddenly have huge disc-space requirements. That, and the market they're developing is much less likely to pre-order games from Gamestop and other retailers, so they don't depend nearly as much on the retail connection.

Their market is grandparents and soccer moms and moms trying to shut up their whiny kids while at the store, I'm not so sure they will make the leap to plugging their credit cards into a console and downloading games.

[Musashi]

First to market could be anyone, but the PS4 will be blu-ray based, probly > 8X drive speed. The others will either use blu-ray or something close enough.

[Blu-Generation]

I think people may confuse PS5 with PS4.

Perhaps in PS5 gen, all things will be digital distribution base, but PS4 gen, I don't think so. Media disc are still in, and it won't go away in a long while.

[Marine Mike]

Originally Posted by Blu-Generation

I think people may confuse PS5 with PS4.

Perhaps in PS5 gen, all things will be digital distribution base, but PS4 gen, I don't think so. Media disc are still in, and it won't go away in a long while.

I was only speculating what may be in the future with regards to digital downloads. I'm very confident that Blu-ray will remain with the Playstation for a long time.

[Blu-Generation]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

I was only speculating what may be in the future with regards to digital downloads. I'm very confident that Blu-ray will remain with the Playstation for a long time.

Oh, I wasn't directing it at you, specifically. It was more toward people who think digital downloads will take over in the next couple years.

If we're talking 20+ years into the future, where every home is connect to ultra fast internet and quality service, sure. I don't doubt that digital distribution will take over.

But if we're talking the next 10 years or so, media disc will still be the main thing to have.

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

I was only speculating what may be in the future with regards to digital downloads. I'm very confident that Blu-ray will remain with the Playstation for a long time.

Agreed. Even if, some years down the line, there is a notable shift in games or other content to digital delivery, there's no reason Sony wouldn't throw a BD drive in anyway. Sony has clearly had some early success with their new format. It would behoove them to maintain as large an install base as possible for as long as possible.

[SoCalTiger]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

I don't think thats entirely bullshit if Sony can do what Valve can do with Steam on the PC.

The problem is you risk isolating customers who lack bandwidth. The next Nintendo sure as hell will not do that considering that tons of people buying the Wii including non-internet savvy people like the elderly. Ironically Wii titles would be the easiest to go download only because they require much less data than a 360 or PS3 game.

I personally think we are at least 1 more generation away from going download only for HD or better titles.

[Rike255]

I can just imagine my grandma/grandpa trying to figure out DD. We recently got them a new Shaw digital cable box. If you're not in the guide, pressing the "UP" arrow on the remote makes the channels go UP. But once you press Guide, the UP button makes the channels go down. This is entirely mind blowing for them.
That said, trying to explain to them that their movie or whatever is streaming from the internet or on a HDD and they DONT need to put in a tape would probably cause a heart attack.

[hellmonkey]

I think theres a strong possibility that flash media could return. Its taking over the PC world. Solid state drives are getting cheaper and usb flash drives/memory cards are dirt ass cheap. The way things are going, a 64 GB flash drive will be $10 in 4 years.

I guess we will just have to wait and see.

[Sylin]

Originally Posted by hellmonkey

I think theres a strong possibility that flash media could return. Its taking over the PC world. Solid state drives are getting cheaper and usb flash drives/memory cards are dirt ass cheap. The way things are going, a 64 GB flash drive will be $10 in 4 years.

I guess we will just have to wait and see.

I don't see the industry switching from one form of physical media to another. A movie or game on a flash drive is still physical media, just not optical or magnetic.

Altho, that smaller size would have its benefits. I wouldn't need such a large cabinet to store all my Blu's.

Consider that we have had the ability to make documents digital and portable for over 20 years now, and while the Kindle is popular, people still buy books. iTunes is a wild success, but people still buy CDs. Pay-per-view and OnDemand have amazing profit, but people still buy DVDs and Blu-rays.

There's something to be said for our subconscious belief that ownership is only ownership if it equals possession. I don't think the world at large is ready to make that leap into believing something they can't hold actually belongs to them.

Just my $0.02.

[Rike255]

Originally Posted by Sylin

There's something to be said for our subconscious belief that ownership is only ownership if it equals possession. I don't think the world at large is ready to make that leap into believing something they can't hold actually belongs to them.
.

I don't think that could have been said any better!