Carmack(ID Software) Suspects PS4 Will Be First To Market?

[androvsky]

He only said that one of the current consoles makers is likely to move to download only. I'd bet on MS making that move before Sony. They just launched their service to download full 360 games, and since those are limited to a little over 6 GBs per disc, it's much more viable for the 360 than the PS3.

The successor to the Wii is even more likely to go DD-only, since Nintendo's games just aren't that big download-wise; Brawl was the only game to require a dual-layer DVD, and I doubt the next Wii would suddenly have huge disc-space requirements. That, and the market they're developing is much less likely to pre-order games from Gamestop and other retailers, so they don't depend nearly as much on the retail connection.

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by androvsky

The successor to the Wii is even more likely to go DD-only, since Nintendo's games just aren't that big download-wise; Brawl was the only game to require a dual-layer DVD, and I doubt the next Wii would suddenly have huge disc-space requirements. That, and the market they're developing is much less likely to pre-order games from Gamestop and other retailers, so they don't depend nearly as much on the retail connection.

I don't know. My sister and my folks have Wiis. They very much depend on that retail chain being there to inform their purchases because they aren't techie, per se gamer-types...and that is exactly the consumer that Nintendo has been targeting.

[Blu-Generation]

Originally Posted by androvsky

He only said that one of the current consoles makers is likely to move to download only. I'd bet on MS making that move before Sony. They just launched their service to download full 360 games, and since those are limited to a little over 6 GBs per disc, it's much more viable for the 360 than the PS3.

That may be possible. For the next Microsoft system.

But, I kind of doubt MS would want to go download exclusive next gen. Seeing how they are so proud of multiplat games selling better in the market than PS3 version. If all of a sudden they jump to digital downloads only, then they leave the real world market wide open to sony.

Now gamestop employee will have a hard time promoting to their customer. Seeing that all they will have in stock are PS titles. Best buy, wal-mart, will all do the same.

People who are less tech-junkie will go out and see games only on PS4. Wouldn't that be something.

[Sweetstache]

Originally Posted by Blu-Generation

...Digital distribution is an option, not a solution...

Originally Posted by Blu-Generation

But, I kind of doubt MS would want to go download exclusive next gen. Seeing how they are so proud of multiplat games selling better in the market than PS3 version. If all of a sudden they jump to digital downloads only, then they leave the real world market wide open to sony.

Now gamestop employee will have a hard time promoting to their customer. Seeing that all they will have in stock are PS titles. Best buy, wal-mart, will all do the same.

People who are less tech-junkie will go out and see games only on PS4. Wouldn't that be something.

wow Blu-Generation, you've just said two of the smartest things I've heard in a long time! so much so that I even felt I should log in and post just to make sure you were acknowledged.

[Blu-Generation]

uh...Thank you? lol

[Sweetstache]

haha, sorry for the over excitement they were just very good points - and to simply post "+1,000,000" is something I can never bring myself to do.

[pecansam]

Originally Posted by ryan69969

Sony would be stupid to lose the Blu-ray drive...if not for backward compatibility considerations alone.

Erm.

[pecansam]

Originally Posted by androvsky

The successor to the Wii is even more likely to go DD-only, since Nintendo's games just aren't that big download-wise; Brawl was the only game to require a dual-layer DVD, and I doubt the next Wii would suddenly have huge disc-space requirements. That, and the market they're developing is much less likely to pre-order games from Gamestop and other retailers, so they don't depend nearly as much on the retail connection.

Their market is grandparents and soccer moms and moms trying to shut up their whiny kids while at the store, I'm not so sure they will make the leap to plugging their credit cards into a console and downloading games.

[Sylin]

Originally Posted by Shin-Ra

In 3-4 years, the average gamer still isn't going to be downloading and storing multiple lots of 50GB or more data.

So unless graphics rendering suddenly shifts in a new direction, or the industry crashes and rebuilds with all small indie-type games, good luck with that optical media-less system.

Precisely.

Take the USA for example. Less than half of American homes have Internet service, and less than half of those have broadband. Our highspeed infrastructure isn't even close to what it should/could be, despite the fact we have a bunch of unused fiber strung all over America put there for exactly that.

When your local cable company is offering 25mbps as their "standard" speed, PC's and TiVo's come with multi-terabyte HDD's, and data can stream so quickly the impatient/gotta-have-it-now public thinks downloads are transparent to realtime, THEN we'll see a shift to non-optical media. Until then...

[KilloWertz]

Originally Posted by Blu-Generation

Oh, I wasn't directing it at you, specifically. It was more toward people who think digital downloads will take over in the next couple years.

If we're talking 20+ years into the future, where every home is connect to ultra fast internet and quality service, sure. I don't doubt that digital distribution will take over.

But if we're talking the next 10 years or so, media disc will still be the main thing to have.

I completely agree with this. There are signs of companies wanting to go in that direction now, but there is no way it will take over anytime soon. There's just too many reasons not to go this route right now to make it feasible. It will likely happen someday, but Carmack is crazy to think it will happen even remotely soon.

[Sylin]

Originally Posted by killowertz

I completely agree with this. There are signs of companies wanting to go in that direction now, but there is no way it will take over anytime soon. There's just too many reasons not to go this route right now to make it feasible. It will likely happen someday, but Carmack is crazy to think it will happen even remotely soon.

Let's not forget all the bandwidth restrictions that major providers like Comcast, Charter and Time Warner put on their broadband services. I'm waiting for the first wave of gamers to get their Internet service frozen because they downloaded a bunch of full-length games from XBLA and exceeded their monthly quota.

[Simplayer]

Originally Posted by Sylin

Let's not forget all the bandwidth restrictions that major providers like Comcast, Charter and Time Warner put on their broadband services. I'm waiting for the first wave of gamers to get their Internet service frozen because they downloaded a bunch of full-length games from XBLA and exceeded their monthly quota.

Do they actually stop you from downloading anything else once you reach your quota? I thought they just charged you fairly heavily for data over the limit.

[Sylin]

Originally Posted by Simplayer

Do they actually stop you from downloading anything else once you reach your quota? I thought they just charged you fairly heavily for data over the limit.

Depends. Komkast (at least here in Nashville) has been known to completely freeze people, restrict access to certain sites and IP's, or throttle down your bandwidth so that downloading large files would take so long it isn't worth it to most people.

[Blu-Generation]

Originally Posted by Sylin

Depends. Komkast (at least here in Nashville) has been known to completely freeze people, restrict access to certain sites and IP's, or throttle down your bandwidth so that downloading large files would take so long it isn't worth it to most people.

Same with our Comcast here in portland.

[AM-MAN]

Not convincing. M$ is leading by NOT adding latest technology to the xbox ,they stayed with the traditional hackable low capacity DVD for example.

[SoCalTiger]

Originally Posted by Marine Mike

I don't think thats entirely bullshit if Sony can do what Valve can do with Steam on the PC.

The problem is you risk isolating customers who lack bandwidth. The next Nintendo sure as hell will not do that considering that tons of people buying the Wii including non-internet savvy people like the elderly. Ironically Wii titles would be the easiest to go download only because they require much less data than a 360 or PS3 game.

I personally think we are at least 1 more generation away from going download only for HD or better titles.

[fsavoie]

Originally Posted by Blu-Generation

That may be possible. For the next Microsoft system.

But, I kind of doubt MS would want to go download exclusive next gen. Seeing how they are so proud of multiplat games selling better in the market than PS3 version. If all of a sudden they jump to digital downloads only, then they leave the real world market wide open to sony.

Now gamestop employee will have a hard time promoting to their customer. Seeing that all they will have in stock are PS titles. Best buy, wal-mart, will all do the same.

People who are less tech-junkie will go out and see games only on PS4. Wouldn't that be something.

I agree with you

[Rike255]

I can just imagine my grandma/grandpa trying to figure out DD. We recently got them a new Shaw digital cable box. If you're not in the guide, pressing the "UP" arrow on the remote makes the channels go UP. But once you press Guide, the UP button makes the channels go down. This is entirely mind blowing for them.
That said, trying to explain to them that their movie or whatever is streaming from the internet or on a HDD and they DONT need to put in a tape would probably cause a heart attack.

[hellmonkey]

I think theres a strong possibility that flash media could return. Its taking over the PC world. Solid state drives are getting cheaper and usb flash drives/memory cards are dirt ass cheap. The way things are going, a 64 GB flash drive will be $10 in 4 years.

I guess we will just have to wait and see.

[Sylin]

Originally Posted by hellmonkey

I think theres a strong possibility that flash media could return. Its taking over the PC world. Solid state drives are getting cheaper and usb flash drives/memory cards are dirt ass cheap. The way things are going, a 64 GB flash drive will be $10 in 4 years.

I guess we will just have to wait and see.

I don't see the industry switching from one form of physical media to another. A movie or game on a flash drive is still physical media, just not optical or magnetic.

Altho, that smaller size would have its benefits. I wouldn't need such a large cabinet to store all my Blu's.

Consider that we have had the ability to make documents digital and portable for over 20 years now, and while the Kindle is popular, people still buy books. iTunes is a wild success, but people still buy CDs. Pay-per-view and OnDemand have amazing profit, but people still buy DVDs and Blu-rays.

There's something to be said for our subconscious belief that ownership is only ownership if it equals possession. I don't think the world at large is ready to make that leap into believing something they can't hold actually belongs to them.

Just my $0.02.