So why not $1,500?

[JTK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

So, start with a design cheap and easy to make in mass quantity? For the PS/3, quite simply, that would defintely meant no Blu-ray drive.

We wouldn't be debating the PS/3 (or Blu-ray probably) now if Sony had done it "right".

Gary

Heh, that's true.

I was referring to supply/demand and Nintendo simply being in a position to a launch and have enough units ready to field a lot of the demand upfront.

Now we'll see what the follow through is like.

Black Friday is critical. I hope Sony can close the gap this week signifigantly. The lead up to Christmas, as a whole, needs to be signifigant.

I think it will be, simply because Sony knows it HAS to be.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by JTK

I was referring to supply/demand and Nintendo simply being in a position to a launch and have enough units ready to field a lot of the demand upfront.

Actually, so was I. Nintendo did it by going with a far cheaper and easier to produce and deliver design. That allowed them to logistically and financially to be able to produce a massive number of units for launch. I bet Nintendo actually breaks even on the console (at least).

But, for the PS/3 at $800 cost a pop, to have 4 million through launch would have meant Sony would be in the hole $3.2 billion and faced with up to a $1 billion loss after selling those units!

I'm sure Sony had a significantly lower cost and smaller subsidy in mind when it set the design. But, the 65nm process Cell didn't happen, and the laser diodes are still expensive and hard to produce.

At least the delay allowed them to time to ramp up 50GB disc replication capability.

Originally Posted by JTK

Black Friday is critical. I hope Sony can close the gap this week signifigantly. The lead up to Christmas, as a whole, needs to be signifigant.

I think it will be, simply because Sony knows it HAS to be.

The gap with the Wii?

I wonder if allowing the Wii to have the stage is actually beneficial. Those are sales not going to Xbox 360 too, and there is a big quantity of those left unsold. If the PS/3 can't have the sale, Sony should want it to go to the Wii.

I can't see how Sony could possibly managed to compete in terms of numbers with either the Wii or Xbox this year. As such, it would be much smarter to make sure those people that do get it are VERY happy. Put a ton of effort through Q3-2007 into building up the capabilities, and fixing issues. Drop the price in Q4. And flood the market next holiday season.

Now, I'm not saying they should turn off the tap. But, they shouldn't be in panic mode now. I can't see how it would help.

Gary

[JTK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Actually, so was I. Nintendo did it by going with a far cheaper and easier to produce and deliver design.

You are right and then some:

What they really did was they halted GameCube production a while back. That hardware was still lying all over the place.

All the Wii is, if you opened it up, is an overclocked GameCube. Seriously. They buffed up a couple of things in it, but it is essentially an overclocked GameCube.

You can get a new GameCube for $99 right now.


Watch this: If you had to buy an extra Wii remote controller thingie seperately, it's $50?

So if you take $50 out of the Wii's MSRP, you're paying an extra $100 for an overclocked GameCube.

Pretty clever by Nintendo. They never have taken a loss on hardware sales. In fact, they usually turn an almost immediate profit everytime. This will be no exception.

^^ This is how you do it.

That allowed them to logistically and financially to be able to produce a massive number of units for launch. I bet Nintendo actually breaks even on the console (at least).

At the very least. They'll turn a profit in short order for the reasons I spelled out above.

But, for the PS/3 at $800 cost a pop, to have 4 million through launch would have meant Sony would be in the hole $3.2 billion and faced with up to a $1 billion loss after selling those units!

I'm sure Sony had a significantly lower cost and smaller subsidy in mind when it set the design. But, the 65nm process Cell didn't happen, and the laser diodes are still expensive and hard to produce.

At least the delay allowed them to time to ramp up 50GB disc replication capability.

All true.

The gap with the Wii?

I wonder if allowing the Wii to have the stage is actually beneficial. Those are sales not going to Xbox 360 too, and there is a big quantity of those left unsold. If the PS/3 can't have the sale, Sony should want it to go to the Wii.

Irony: I know you've seen that MS propoganda on AVS and other places for months like "Wii wish you a Merry Christmas" with both the Nintendo and MS fonts and icons in one picture? I think the message there is pretty unmistakeable.

There is some truth to it, though: Disgruntled and impatient people that wanted a PS3 and couldn't get one will have money to burn in their pockets. Buying a Wii at half price as consolation prize is an easy call. Buying a 360 that has a year's worth of games on in it and titles like Gears of War is also an easy call to make.

You can buy both of those systems for the price of one PS3. That's common knowledge.

Short term: Sony is in the position to be hurt the most. They know that and have said they really don't care. They're thinking long term all the way.

Long term I think it's all coming back to them in spades.

I do think this next round in the console wars will be a lot closer and nastier and that's a very good thing, because competition forces quality and if we're really lucky, maybe some price drops and *gasp* real innovation past a gimmicky controller.

I can't see how Sony could possibly managed to compete in terms of numbers with either the Wii or Xbox this year.

They can't and they won't and they've never suggested that they would or could.

If you've seen a PS3 or used it, then you know I'm telling you the truth when I say: The PS3 is higher end product all the way. The 360 can't tie its shoes in terms of hardware.

The PS3 is going to be catering to a more "high end" and "sophisticated" crowd at least in the early goings, although obviously it's not being confined to that bunch.

As such, it would be much smarter to make sure those people that do get it are VERY happy. Put a ton of effort through Q3-2007 into building up the capabilities, and fixing issues. Drop the price in Q4. And flood the market next holiday season.

Not sure about a price drop but I definitely am confident in the rest of that.

The 360 has been out for a year and they haven't dropped their price.

The PS3 will have been out for a year by the timeframe you're talking about and they are more loaded in terms of technology: Why should they slash their price all of a sudden?

Now, I'm not saying they should turn off the tap. But, they shouldn't be in panic mode now. I can't see how it would help.

Gary

Agreed. It's way too early for anything like that.


Footnote:

http://www.hdtvpub.com/productdb/games/index.cfm

^^

If you take a look through there, you're going to be reminded of an "inconvenient truth" that MS has glossed over.

The first Xbox was capable of doing high definition for games and there were a handful of 720p Xbox discs out there. EA's 2006 baseball title being one prominent example.

But here's the real rub: Gran Turismo 4 was 1080i for the PS2. That's right. For 6-7 year old hardware.

That's why so many of us were convinced the 360 is really nothing more than Xbox 1.5. Now that I have the PS3 here, I can confirm that absolutely. The 360 is a nice system, but it really is just Xbox 1.5 whereas the PS3 is the full leap to the next level.

This is where Sony's best strength will come in again: Long term.

If you play PS2 games like God of War or Final Fantasy 12, you are going to be amazed to see how much juice the developers are cranking out of that "ancient" hardware. Those games look as good as anything you'd see at least on Xbox 1 and, in some cases, 360 games.

A year from now, the PS3 will start having some of those big name exclusives coming out, like Metal Gear Solid 4. Once you start seeing titles like that show up, systems will be flying off of shelves and a rushed price drop really won't be necessary.


It's really an overclocked Xbox and an overclocked GameCube vs. something truly next generation and completely new.