Will HD-DVD soon be mentioned in same breath as DVHS, DivX, Beta & 8 tracks?

[Ollie W. Holmes]

Betamax survived for a very long time (27 years, to be exact). But eventually, movie companies stopped distributing their films on this medium because the sales were marginal. Stores, of course, did not like to double stock identical titles.

I predict HD-DVD makes it to a fifth year, as far as the manufacture of players is concerned. Since Microsoft has gotten behind the medium, we may get dual sided games (omg, just like movies).

It will be the availability of dual format players that keeps HD-DVD alive. Every year it stays alive will be another reason to produce such players, i.e., there will be a critical mass of titles that people still need to play.

Look, right now things are very cloudy. So many events are going on, and it is difficult to make a prediction. The next skirmish will be the release of "must have" high-definition movies, such as Lord of the Ring: Fellowship of the Ring, Star Wars ep. 1-6, etc. After or before that, a high def disc-based PVR will be the hot ticket. Toshiba has deep pockets. And a lot of pride. Look how long Pioneer kept laserdisc alive. And of course, remember how long Sony continued producing Betamax decks. Never underestimate the staying power of Japanese corporations.