Should the consumer win?

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt

Everyone here seems to assume that Warner will either back HD DVD, Blu-ray, or both but what about "none of the above"? Don't forget that Warner is first and foremost a media company and that they might well conclude that online delivery is preferable to either of the next-gen optical formats and attempt to set up their own proprietary online delivery service for their catalog. I despise AOL but it is a very strong brand name that is currently faltering, an online movie delivery service might be as good a use as any for it going forward.

Despite the insinuations that have been put forward I doubt 4th quarter player or disc sales are going to be the primary driving factor for Warner. More likely they're weighing whether or not they really want to support a next-gen disc format at all or whether there is a more profitable way to distribute their wares.

Sorry but we are talking 2008 not 2018. Warner knows that the hardware for that still isn't viable for the average joe so you can forget that right off the bat.

There are many consumer that still are not computer savy to begoin with that want a hard formated disk.

[cleric]

If by "win" you mean have one format I assume?

I think if warner plays it well and we would hope they would all they need to do in my opinion is pick the format they like for whatever reason (and they are probably going to be different than mine and yours) and just put all their top titles out on the decide format and try to throw a knockout punch. I think the chances would be pretty good.

[JohnGalt]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

Sorry but we are talking 2008 not 2018. Warner knows that the hardware for that still isn't viable for the average joe so you can forget that right off the bat.

There are many consumer that still are not computer savy to begoin with that want a hard formated disk.

The CE side of the technology could literally be ready in a matter of months if there were a serious push to develop it. Nothing more than an industrial PC coupled with an open software architecture that allows vendors to push their own virtual machines onto the box is necessary. That's essentially a software-only solution and while not quite trivial the only real challenges to its implementation would be from those seeking to carve out a piece of the IP pie.

The real technological problem lies in the lack of available bandwidth for delivery but with consumers abandoning higher quality audio formats in droves in favor of lower quality online delivery there will be a great deal of pressure to factor this "likely" consumer preference into any decisions. You'll never lose money by underestimating the lack of insight of marketing departments. Heck, I watched a multi-billion dollar corporate bankruptcy from the inside that flowed directly from the marketing department's decision to spend 95% of their time pursuing glamor markets while all but ignoring viable but less glamorous meat-and-potatoes markets that would have built a nice foundation for the business.

The killer point regarding online delivery is that each delivery would have a shelf-life since it's virtually a lock that duplication will not be allowed. Thus, once the consumer's HDD is full, they'll have to dump old content in order to secure new which guarantees multiple deliveries of some titles over time. Those sorts of recurring revenue streams are *very* attractive to businesses. But that's all moot if the consumer decides they want a next-gen optical format which remains to be seen at this point.

[jsteinhauer]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt

Those sorts of recurring revenue streams are *very* attractive to businesses. But that's all moot if the consumer decides they want a next-gen optical format which remains to be seen at this point.

I completely agree. There is a lot of denial about the fact that revenues and profits are the driving factor behind the format that "wins". Quality means little. Network television, fast food, US airline companies, insurance companies, etc. are all evidence.

[Blu-Generation]

Whatever happen next will show us Warner true face.

Whether they're smart or not.

[JohnGalt]

Originally Posted by jsteinhauer

I completely agree. There is a lot of denial about the fact that revenues and profits are the driving factor behind the format that "wins". Quality means little. Network television, fast food, US airline companies, insurance companies, etc. are all evidence.

What I struggle with conceptually is the fact that any sort of online delivery is going to look at lot like PPV + TiVo which is already available to pretty much anyone who wants it. Sure having a huge back catalog will increase sales around the margins but by the time M$ rolls out whatever online scheme they're hatching it's likely the market will have bypassed them. If it hasn't already done so.