Real 4k disks - what do you think the rollout timeline will be?

[slick1ru2]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Folks should keep in mind that it took RED more than 2 years (??) to ship the Redray player. Now look at the specs, this thing only does video and audio in .RED format. The Nuvola NP-1 appears to be a more versatile media player but it appears that no one actually has one of these either.

It is hoped that folks will realize the improvements brought by UHD BD will only be marginal in many (most) cases over that of standard BD because of the source material that is available. According to the owners of the Sony FMP-X1 this seems to be true.

Looking at the Amazon reviews on the FMP-X1, it looks like Sony dropped the ball. And is still only able to work with 2 models of their TVs? BTW, the price has dropped drastically.

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

Looking at the Amazon reviews on the FMP-X1, it looks like Sony dropped the ball. And is still only able to work with 2 models of their TVs? BTW, the price has dropped drastically.

We will not see movies in rec.2020 until we see players able to reproduce it, and that may not show up until mid-2015 - at reasonable stocking levels. The industry shows us new technology in basically three steps:

1. Very expensive "bleeding edge" models for the must-have crowd
2. Relatively expensive models, without all the features people actually want, at relatively accessible stocking levels
3. Commodity pricing, with decent backwards compatibility, and reliability at an acceptable price point.

Content will lag for 4K. While films have been stored in 4K for the industry, releasing them in 4K format will have to endure tweaks. All of the modern problems - edge enhancement chief among them - will plague the new format, and new transfers of new films will be slow, but the rule. This market will not be huge for at least another year (until mid-2015) so don't expect to see anything but Blu-Ray showing on most new sets.


Early 2006 players ran $500-$700. As late as 2010, Sony and Pioneer premier players were running $350 to $450. At this time, a good Sony is under $100.


The timeline for 4K will be shorter - but the audience is smaller, with the entire market not really caring for the subtle differences. Despite the fact that some posters deride the public as "idiots", a huge majority of these folks watch SD broadcasts in "zoom" mode on commodity 720p and 1080i screens - and enjoy it. This will not be a rapid change, and I don't expect to see significant headway for at least two years. Real market change may not happen for three or four.


I can't overstate the damage 3D did to the confidence of the public. 3D is now moribund and static, with terrible public acceptance, and the average consumer is not able to toss older sets aside for a gimmick. People really want to wait - and should - with a marketplace quite willing to try and market the next best thing when the current thing is working.


The effort now is to render obsolescent 1080p televisions and playback devices. This isn't going to work. The only market mover is attrition - as older sets die, the new ones will be 4K, and heaven help the manufacturers if they go stupid on us and try to abandon Blu-Ray. Only total embrace of legacy Blu standards will be acceptable to the public - and will slow 4K acceptance even more.


They really screwed up in 2010. I hope they survive. I don't know anyone that trusts this industry.

[Geoff D]

I agree about 3D, it was an upgrade too far and it's made a lot of people wary about the next next next big thing that the manufacturers are pushing on us (HD to 3D to UHD).

I think 3D's utterly amazing when done right, but the home rollout was so fractured and disparate, with competing technologies, active glasses not being compatible between different manufacturers, the killer app of Avatar being held back as an exclusive for Panasonic etc etc, that the general public washed their hands of it in terms of mass acceptance. (And they don't seem to have learned with 4K, what with different manufacturers offering 4K software solutions that only work with their TVs, early sets that can't access one of the only means of commercially available 4K content at the moment etc.)

Still, it's ironic that the onset of 4K has finally delivered the sort of astonishing 3D performance (passive 1080p with no crosstalk) that would've given the stereo format a major boost if it were that good from the beginning AND had the software (AVATAR!!!) to support it. Perhaps we'll only see what 4K can really do when 8K sets start to come out?

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by Geoff D

Still, it's ironic that the onset of 4K has finally delivered the sort of astonishing 3D performance (passive 1080p with no crosstalk) that would've given the stereo format a major boost if it were that good from the beginning AND had the software (AVATAR!!!) to support it. Perhaps we'll only see what 4K can really do when 8K sets start to come out?

8K is being broadcast in Japan - this thing is turning into a nightmare. I saw Avatar as being the real problem with 3D - a mediocre film, with nice images that don't stand repeated viewing - and a lot of whooping and hollering by the industry. There was no followup that people could use on their sets. It's like having the perfect oven, making a delicious dessert in it, and then nothing else is around good to eat.


If it's not going mainstream, requires special equipment strapped to the viewer to see the image, and isn't being broadcast, it's not going to happen. 4K won't help that. The ENTIRE industry needs to embrace a practical technology, and that's not happening. Witness the sports broadcasters running for the hills every time it's mentioned.


People aren't going to embrace expensive discs to help this format succeed, so it will just circle the drain for a while longer.

[slick1ru2]

I just saw where two companies, forgot which, are coming out with glasses-less 3D, but I think the damage is done, yet something else so soon that comes across as a way to entice consumers to "upgrade".

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

I just saw where two companies, forgot which, are coming out with glasses-less 3D, but I think the damage is done, yet something else so soon that comes across as a way to entice consumers to "upgrade".

Each glassless solution - Vizio has one, I forget the other one - requires sitting in a special "sweet spot" to view the stereo image. The ones seen in Las Vegas at CES involved much head-knocking as people tried to share this "sweet spot" on a couch.


That isn't going to work. About the only sales it will promote is spiked helmets and artificial fart dispensers. If the 4K spec has 3D supported, it will be the current spec, most likely.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Blu-Dog

Each glassless solution - Vizio has one, I forget the other one - requires sitting in a special "sweet spot" to view the stereo image. The ones seen in Las Vegas at CES involved much head-knocking as people tried to share this "sweet spot" on a couch.


That isn't going to work. About the only sales it will promote is spiked helmets and artificial fart dispensers. If the 4K spec has 3D supported, it will be the current spec, most likely.

Is there any tech you aren't down on? (my opinion) lol.